Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- ILMN is experiencing strong growth in gigabase output, with over 40% growth recently, surpassing the 5-year average of mid-20% range, indicating increasing demand and utilization of their sequencing platforms, which bodes well for future consumables revenue growth.
- ILMN is implementing a continuous improvement program expected to deliver an additional $200 million in expense savings over the next few years, leading to margin expansion and enhanced earnings power.
- The adoption of NovaSeq X by clinical customers is progressing, with new assays being developed and multiple instruments already deployed in major labs, indicating future growth in clinical markets.
- Weakness in the Chinese market: Management indicated that revenue in China has been quite weak, contributing to almost two-thirds of the decline in their full-year guidance. They are not seeing signs of recovery and have taken out any expectation of increased business volumes for the rest of the year.
- Challenges in mid-throughput segment: The mid-throughput segment remains highly sensitive to the macroeconomic environment, with lengthening sales cycles due to constrained capital spending. This is impacting instrument sales and delaying revenue recognition.
- Projected decline in sequencing instrument revenue: Sequencing instrument revenue is now projected to decline in the mid-30% range relative to 2023, reflecting fewer instrument shipments due to customer capital constraints and elongated sales cycles.
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Cost Savings and Margin Expansion
Q: Are any areas off limits in $200M cost savings?
A: Management stated that no areas are off limits in the $200 million cost savings initiative. They are examining all elements of the P&L, including R&D, to achieve a structurally better and sustainable cost structure. Detailed insights will be provided during the strategy update next week. -
Pricing Impact of NovaSeq X Transition
Q: How should we model the pricing impact of NovaSeq X?
A: Approximately 45% of high-throughput consumables volume has transitioned to NovaSeq X. The mix is shifting by about 5 percentage points each quarter from the 6000 to the X. By next year, they expect half of revenue to come from NovaSeq X. Overall gigabases sequenced grew by 40%, but high-throughput revenue grew by only 1%, with the difference attributed to pricing and mix changes. -
Future Pricing Headwinds
Q: What's the expected future pricing headwind from NovaSeq X?
A: The pricing headwind is higher early in the NovaSeq X launch and will diminish as more volume shifts to X. Transitioning from the 6000 to X results in a 60–70% price decline per gigabase. As the mix improves and half the revenue comes from X by mid-next year, the impact of pricing will continue to decrease. -
Revenue Growth Outlook for Next Year
Q: Does consumables growth imply mid-single-digit revenue growth?
A: Management agrees that consumables growth is a good indicator for improved performance but cautions it's too early to discuss 2025 in detail due to uncertainties like the U.S. election, Middle East tensions, and interest rates. They are focused on returning to a better growth trajectory. -
Competition in Mid-Throughput Segment
Q: Why isn't mid-throughput weakness a competitive issue?
A: They attribute mid-throughput weakness primarily to economic factors rather than competition. Win rates have remained stable over the past few quarters, and they haven't seen a material change in competitive intensity. The company continues to monitor each deal closely. -
Clinical Adoption of NovaSeq X
Q: How is the clinical community adopting NovaSeq X?
A: Clinical adoption of NovaSeq X is slower than in academia due to validation requirements for assays. Clinical customers are keeping existing assays on the 6000 and using the X for new assays requiring deeper sequencing. Management expects the transition to remain stable without significant changes in trajectory. -
China Sales Outlook
Q: What's the outlook for China sales?
A: The Chinese market remains weak with constrained customers, and no signs of recovery are evident. China significantly contributes to the lowered full-year guidance. A new regional head is making commercial changes, but increased volumes aren't expected in the near term. -
Cost Savings Timeline Clarification
Q: Is the $200M cost savings over three years?
A: Management will provide more details next week but plans to offer a comprehensive view of growth, margin expansion, and earnings over the next three years during the upcoming strategy update. -
Mid-Throughput Pricing and Competition
Q: Can you lower mid-throughput costs to compete?
A: While they can adjust pricing if necessary, management believes their offerings are already competitively priced and provide higher quality, broader applications, and computational advantages. They emphasize that considering the full workflow, they remain highly differentiated even if their cost per gigabase is at a premium. -
Commercial Organization Changes
Q: Why change the commercial organization now?
A: They are unifying marketing and sales teams to align leadership and create synergies. The restructuring includes adding more field application capabilities to support multiomics and informatics, aiming to optimize their commercial structure for future growth. -
NovaSeq X Pull-Through Potential
Q: Where could NovaSeq X pull-through eventually land?
A: Annual pull-through on the NovaSeq X Series has reached $1 million, and management believes it can go higher. Some customers are already exceeding this figure, but detailed projections are not being shared at this time. -
XLEAP Chemistry Transition
Q: What's the impact of transitioning to XLEAP chemistry?
A: About 60% of the installed base has downloaded software for XLEAP chemistry, indicating strong interest. While there will be a pricing transition, the impact on overall revenue is expected to be significantly smaller compared to the NovaSeq X transition because mid-throughput consumables constitute a smaller portion of revenue. -
Collaborations with Competitors
Q: Should we be concerned about LabCorp and Quest collaborations?
A: Management acknowledges these collaborations but emphasizes their focus on delivering high-quality solutions. They believe factors like the breadth of applications and vendor support are more critical than just the cost of sequencing when customers choose a platform. -
Consumables Margin Impact
Q: Will mid-throughput XLEAP adoption drag margins?
A: There will be a margin impact, but it's expected to be manageable due to the smaller contribution of mid-throughput consumables to overall revenue. Additionally, reduced costs of goods sold for XLEAP chemistry help offset margin pressures. -
Research vs. Clinical Growth
Q: How did research and clinical NGS revenue grow?
A: While specific numbers weren't provided, management indicated they are experiencing healthy growth in both the academic and clinical segments of the business.
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