Executive Summary

Q3 2025 GAAP results were impacted by non‑cash impairment and restructuring charges; net income was C$539mm and diluted EPS C$1.07, while net income excluding identified items rose to C$1,094mm (C$2.17/share), reflecting strong operations across Upstream and Downstream .
Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global), GAAP EPS and revenue missed: EPS $0.77 vs $1.41 consensus, revenue $8.61B vs $9.09B consensus; excluding identified items, underlying profitability was stronger and driven by record Kearl output and 98% refinery utilization .*
Operational highlights: highest quarterly Upstream production in 30+ years (462 mboe/d) with Kearl record 316 kb/d gross (224 kb/d Imperial share); Downstream utilization at 98%, with improved industry refining margins on seasonal demand and global diesel disruptions .
Capital returns accelerated: C$1.835B returned in Q3 (C$366mm dividends; C$1.469B buybacks) and Q4 2025 dividend declared at C$0.72/share; NCIB acceleration expected to complete by year-end .
Potential stock catalysts: normalization of earnings ex-identified items, sustained record production at Kearl and high refining utilization, and clarity on restructuring benefits and NCIB completion timeline .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record production: Upstream averaged 462 mboe/d (30+ year high), with Kearl’s highest‑ever quarter at 316 kb/d gross (224 kb/d Imperial share), driven by improved reliability and recovery .
Downstream execution: 98% refinery utilization and higher throughput (425 kb/d), with improved industry margins on seasonal demand and global diesel supply disruptions .
Management confidence: “Our operations delivered strong results across the board… growing volumes at lower unit cash costs and returning surplus cash to our shareholders” — John Whelan, CEO .

What Went Wrong

GAAP earnings headwinds: After‑tax non‑cash impairment of C$306mm and restructuring charge of C$249mm reduced diluted EPS by C$1.10 (C$0.61 impairments; C$0.49 restructuring) .
Wholesale softness: Petroleum product sales fell to 464 kb/d (vs 487 kb/d YoY), mainly on lower supply and wholesale channel volumes .
Chemicals weakness: Chemical net income declined to C$21mm (vs C$28mm YoY), consistent with weaker polyethylene margins earlier in the year .

Financial Results

Summary Financials (CAD)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total revenues and other income (C$ mm)	13,259	11,232	12,049
Net income (C$ mm)	1,237	949	539
Diluted EPS (C$)	2.33	1.86	1.07
Cash flows from operating activities (C$ mm)	1,487	1,465	1,798
Capital & exploration expenditures (C$ mm)	486	473	505
Upstream gross oil‑equivalent production (mboe/d)	447	427	462
Refinery throughput (kb/d)	389	376	425
Refinery capacity utilization (%)	90	87	98
Petroleum product sales (kb/d)	487	480	464

Segment Net Income (CAD)

Segment Net Income (C$ mm)	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Upstream	1,027	664	728
Downstream	205	322	444
Chemical	28	21	21
Corporate & other	(23)	(58)	(654)

Operational KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Kearl (Imperial share, kb/d)	209	195	224
Kearl total gross (kb/d)	295	275	316
Cold Lake (kb/d)	147	145	150
Syncrude (kb/d)	81	77	78

Non‑GAAP Adjustments Impact (Q3 2025)

Metric	Amount
After‑tax impairment (C$ mm)	(306)
After‑tax restructuring (C$ mm)	(249)
EPS impact – impairment (C$)	(0.61)
EPS impact – restructuring (C$)	(0.49)
EPS excluding identified items (C$)	2.17

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (USD, Q3 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue (USD billions)	9.09*	8.61*
Primary EPS (USD)	1.41*	0.77*
Primary EPS – # of Estimates	8*	—
Revenue – # of Estimates	2*	—
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Dividend per share (C$)	Q4 2025	C$0.72 declared for Q3 2025	C$0.72 declared for Q4 2025	Maintained
NCIB share repurchases	2025	Plan to accelerate and complete prior to year end	Accelerated program ongoing; anticipate completion before year end	Maintained/Progressing
Leming SAGD start-up	Late 2025	First oil anticipated late 2025; peak ~9 kb/d	First oil anticipated “in the coming weeks”; ramp to ~9 kb/d	Timing pulled forward / increased certainty
Kearl turnaround interval	Multi‑year	Doubling intervals to 4 years (execution in Q2 turnaround)	Continued reliability improvements underpin volumes	Maintained (execution evidence)

Note: The company does not provide quantitative revenue/margin/tax rate guidance; above reflects operational and capital‑return guidance statements .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; insights reflect press releases and 8‑K materials and .

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Upstream reliability & volumes	Cold Lake strength via Grand Rapids solvent‑assisted SAGD; Kearl impacted by extreme cold, mitigated by procedures	Record second‑quarter Kearl; coker timing at Syncrude; highest Q2 production in 30+ years	Highest quarterly Upstream production in 30+ years; record Kearl output	Improving
Downstream margin capture & utilization	91% utilization; structural Canadian market advantages	87% utilization amid turnarounds; margins improved on seasonal demand	98% utilization; margins improved by seasonal demand and diesel disruptions	Improving
Tariffs/macro	Volatile trade environment; retaliatory tariffs risk	Persistent volatility; monitoring impacts	US/Canada tariffs highlighted; no material near‑term financial impact anticipated	Stable awareness; limited impact
Technology/energy transition	Strathcona renewable diesel project on track	Strathcona completed/commissioned; first production in July	Restructuring leverages global technology centres; advancing lower unit cash costs	Advancing
Capital returns	Reliable/growing dividend; no buybacks in Q1	Dividend maintained; NCIB renewed with acceleration plan	C$1.835B returned; NCIB acceleration on track to complete	Accelerating

Management Commentary

“Our operations delivered strong results across the board… growing volumes at lower unit cash costs… returning surplus cash to our shareholders” — John Whelan, Chairman, President & CEO .
“Throughout this transition, Imperial remains highly committed to safety, operational excellence, reliability and the delivery of winning results” — Whelan on restructuring and performance focus .
Q2 context: “We safely completed our heaviest planned turnaround quarter… positioning the company for a strong second half… work at Kearl delivers on plans to double turnaround intervals to… four years” — Whelan .

Q&A Highlights

The Q3 2025 earnings webcast was scheduled for Oct 31; a transcript was not available in our corpus at the time of this analysis .
Prepared materials emphasize: operational reliability (Kearl, Cold Lake), Downstream utilization/margins, restructuring to leverage global capability centres, and capital returns including accelerated NCIB .
No additional call‑specific guidance clarifications can be cited without the transcript.

Estimates Context

GAAP comparison: Q3 2025 EPS $0.77 vs $1.41 consensus and revenue $8.61B vs $9.09B consensus → both misses, driven largely by identified items (impairment and restructuring totaling C$555mm after‑tax) .*
Underlying performance: EPS excluding identified items was C$2.17 (≈$1.58 using ~0.73 FX), supported by record production and 98% utilization — indicating stronger core earnings power than GAAP; consensus methodology may need to consider ex‑items trajectory .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Core operations are strong: record Kearl output and 98% utilization underpin cash generation; GAAP EPS was depressed by one‑time charges, but ex‑items earnings were robust .
Near‑term catalysts: completion of accelerated NCIB by year‑end and imminent first oil at Leming SAGD with ramp to ~9 kb/d could sustain Upstream momentum and shareholder returns .
Downstream tailwinds: seasonal demand and global diesel disruptions lifted refining margins; utilization remains high, supporting cash flow resilience .
Capital returns discipline: C$1.835B returned in Q3 and Q4 dividend maintained at C$0.72/share; continued buybacks should shrink share count and enhance per‑share metrics .
Watch wholesale volumes and Chemicals: product sales softness and weaker polyethylene margins are headwinds, though core segments offset .
Estimate recalibration: expect analysts to emphasize ex‑items earnings and operational KPIs; normalized EPS/FCF trajectory remains favorable on reliability and utilization .
Medium‑term thesis: efficiency gains from restructuring and technology leverage, combined with advantaged assets and Canadian market structure, support sustained cash returns and volume growth at lower unit costs .

IMPERIAL OIL LTD (IMO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary