Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jakafi Net Revenue | FY 2024 | $2.71B to $2.75B | $2.74B to $2.77B | raised |
Other Hematology/Oncology | FY 2024 | Guidance reiterated, no numeric | $310M to $320M | no prior guidance |
R&D | FY 2024 | $1.76B to $1.80B | $2.54B to $2.59B | raised |
COGS and SG&A | FY 2024 | Guidance reiterated, no numeric | Guidance reiterated, no numeric | no change |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jakafi Net Revenue | FY 2024 | $2.71B–$2.75B | Q3 2024: $741.2M.(Year-to-date through Q3 totals ~$2.02B, on track to reach guidance.) | Met |
Opzelura | Q3 2024 | Continued growth in second half of 2024, with seasonal Q3 impact | Q3 2024: $139.3M, up from $121.7M in Q2 2024, indicating continued growth | Met |
R&D Expenses | FY 2024 | $1.76B–$1.80B | Q3 2024: $573.17M.(Year-to-date through Q3 exceeds $1.80B, over guidance) | Missed |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Jakafi revenue growth and patent expiration | Previously: Q2 revenue $706M (3% YoY growth), Q1 revenue $572M (5% YoY increase), Q4 2023 revenue $695M (7% YoY). Patent expiration consistently mentioned, with plans for XR formulation; LOE discussions ongoing. | Net product revenue: $741M (16% YoY increase). Company highlighted 2029 patent expiration and remains confident in pipeline to mitigate future LOE. Raised full-year 2024 guidance to $2.74–$2.77B. | Consistent recurring topic with continued bullish sentiment on growth and pipeline strategy to offset LOE. |
Opzelura commercialization and pricing | Previously: Q2 revenue $122M (52% YoY), Q1 impacted by cyberattack and deductible resets, Q4 at $109M (78% YoY). Formulary gains (e.g., CVS) and modest discussions on potential discounts but focus on driving net sales. | $139M in net product revenues (Q3), up 52% YoY, driven by atopic dermatitis and vitiligo uptake; Europe contributed $20M. Emphasis on coverage and access, no major concerns about pricing pressures explicitly mentioned. | Repeated focus on growth, with confidence in global launches; stable sentiment on gross-to-net dynamics. |
CDK2 inhibitor development in oncology | Previously: Q2 highlight of data to be presented at ESMO; Q1 dose optimization ongoing; Q4 early clinical activity with partial responses. | Promising clinical activity in Cyclin E1-overexpressing tumors (ovarian/endometrial). Planning registrational studies in 2025, discussing single-arm vs. randomized trials ex-U.S.. | Momentum growing; sentiment remains bullish with clear path to pivotal studies. |
Povorcitinib in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) | Previously: Q2 data showed 29% HiSCR100 at week 52, Phase III enrollment ongoing; Q1 mention of Phase II success and plan for Phase III; Q4 updates on 52-week data and strong efficacy signals. | Phase III (STOP-HS1 & STOP-HS2) enrolling well, with data expected early 2025. Phase II showed up to 29% HiSCR100 by week 52, highlighting potential best-in-disease profile. | Consistent optimism; remains a key pipeline asset with potential for significant impact in HS market. |
Niktimvo, tafasitamab, and retifanlimab | Previously: Q2 emphasised tafasitamab potential in follicular lymphoma and retifanlimab in anal carcinoma/lung cancer. Niktimvo not mentioned in Q1 or Q4 references. | Collective revenue potential of $800M or more by 2029, with planned availability in 2025 leveraging existing commercial infrastructure. | New combined revenue guidance for three products, positive sentiment on near-term launches. |
Regulatory uncertainties for pivotal programs | Previously: Q2 references to FDA review timelines for axatilimab; Q1 note on BLA acceptance for axatilimab; Q4 mention of multiple pending regulatory decisions but no detailed uncertainties. | Mentioned STOP-HS Phase III data (povorcitinib) needed for NDA filing; ruxolitinib cream in pediatric AD awaiting approval (2025). CDK2 registrational studies in 2025. Overall cautious but positive on timelines. | Ongoing watchful approach; timelines remain mostly on track; sentiment cautious but constructive. |
High R&D expenses impacting margins | Previously: Q2 approach was project-specific; Q1 cited $429M R&D spend; Q4 at $444M. Company has repeatedly noted high R&D is strategic, expecting better cost control once pivotal studies conclude. | $573M in GAAP R&D (Q3), reflecting a $100M milestone and late-stage programs. Adjusted R&D up 26% YoY. Company sees expenses moderating after key programs wrap, improving future margins. | Remains a recurring pressure on margins, but intentional and expected to normalize with pipeline maturity. |
BET inhibitor pipeline progress | Previously: Q2 pledged Phase III progress; Q1 and Q4 showed early efficacy and safety data, decreasing AML-transformation concerns. | Reiterated Phase III plans after seeing spleen volume reduction, symptom improvements, and continuous dosing advantage over competitor. Update expected later in 2024. | Steady progress; sentiment is positive with a clear path to pivotal trials. |
Axatilimab for chronic GVHD | Previously: Q2 BLA filed and priority review accepted for third-line cGVHD, FDA decision anticipated Aug 2024; Q1, Q4 pointed to potential approval in late 2024. | Nearing completion of third-line cGVHD development, with references to winding down clinical activities. | Consistent references; remains a notable upcoming launch with stable optimism. |
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Povorcitinib's Efficacy in HS
Q: What efficacy is needed for povorcitinib to compete with Humira in HS?
A: If povorcitinib replicates its strong Phase II results, including up to 29% HiSCR 100, it will have a highly favorable efficacy profile benefiting HS patients. This could differentiate povorcitinib by demonstrating significant pain relief and symptom improvements. -
CDK2 Inhibitor Development Plans
Q: Any updates on pivotal plans for the CDK2 inhibitor?
A: The company plans to start registrational studies for their CDK2 inhibitor in 2025. They are considering both platinum-refractory and platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer settings. The drug has shown over a 30% response rate in ovarian cancer patients , and they are exploring combinations with bevacizumab maintenance. -
Opzelura Pediatric AD Launch
Q: How is formulary access progressing for Opzelura's pediatric AD launch?
A: The company is confident in having competitive formulary coverage for Opzelura in 2025, including the potential pediatric indication. They are excited about serving the 2 million pediatric atopic dermatitis patients aged 2-11. -
Jakafi Growth Drivers
Q: Has Medicare out-of-pocket changes impacted Jakafi's growth?
A: The growth in Jakafi is driven by increased demand, particularly in polycythemia vera, as physicians start patients earlier due to positive trial results. While lowering out-of-pocket costs to $2,000 per year next year is beneficial, current growth is mostly demand-driven. -
BET Inhibitor Development
Q: How does Novartis's BET inhibitor delay affect your BET program?
A: The company remains confident in their BET inhibitor, noting positive data with spleen and symptom reductions. Unlike pelabresib, their BET inhibitor can be dosed continuously, potentially enhancing symptom control. They plan to provide a data update and advance into a Phase III study by year-end. -
262 Development in CSU
Q: Can you elaborate on development plans for 262 in CSU?
A: 262 is in a randomized Phase II study with doses of 25, 50, and 150 mg compared to placebo. The goal is to explore the full dose range to prepare for pivotal studies. They believe 262 could be the first therapy after antihistamines in chronic urticaria due to its selectivity and potential excellent safety profile. -
CDK2 Competitive Landscape
Q: How does a competitor's CDK2 program discontinuation affect your outlook?
A: The company believes they are ahead in CDK2 inhibition for ovarian cancer, with over 200 patients treated and clear evidence of efficacy. They plan to start registrational studies next year, aiming to differentiate through a well-tolerated oral drug in maintenance settings. -
Opzelura Utilization Trends
Q: How are Opzelura's tubes per patient per year tracking?
A: In atopic dermatitis, patients use over 2 tubes per year. In vitiligo, they are improving adherence and seeing growth from both new patients and refills. -
Ruxolitinib Cream in HS Timing
Q: When is Phase III data for ruxolitinib cream in HS expected?
A: It's premature to provide precise timing, but given the unmet need and excitement, they expect the study to enroll well. They continue to guide towards an approval range starting around mid-2027. -
Tryptase Reduction with 262
Q: Have you characterized tryptase reduction in early 262 trials?
A: They are measuring tryptase but expect less dramatic reductions compared to mast cell depletion therapies. Since 262 targets MRGPRX2 in skin mast cells, systemic tryptase decreases may be less pronounced.
Research analysts covering INCYTE.