INCYTE (INCY)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Incyte Crushes Q4 Estimates as Jakafi and New Launches Drive 28% Revenue Growth

February 10, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Incyte delivered a blowout Q4 2025, with total revenue of $1.51B (+28% Y/Y) crushing consensus by over 20% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.80 beating by nearly 10%. The company exceeded full-year 2025 net product revenue guidance and provided a constructive FY26 outlook with $4.77-4.94B in expected product revenue. Despite the strong operational performance, shares fell ~3.7% in aftermarket trading to $105, likely reflecting profit-taking after INCY more than doubled over the past year.

Did Incyte Beat Earnings?

Yes—decisively on both metrics.

Q4 revenue included a $100M milestone payment from collaborative partners, contributing to the revenue beat. The core product business remained strong with 20% growth in total net product revenue driven by:

• Jakafi: $828M (+7% Y/Y) on 11% increase in paid demand
• Opzelura: $207M (+28% Y/Y) with growth in both atopic dermatitis and vitiligo
• Niktimvo: $56M (new launch, +22% Q/Q) with strong uptake in chronic GVHD
• Zynyz: $32M following label expansion in SCAC

What Did Management Guide?

Incyte provided FY26 guidance that embeds continued momentum across the portfolio:

Key guidance assumptions:

• Jakafi guide includes potential launch of Jakafi XR if approved in mid-2026
• Opzelura guide includes anticipated ex-U.S. launch in moderate AD in late 2026
• R&D + SG&A operating expenses of $3.50-3.68B (GAAP), reflecting continued pipeline investment

The guidance midpoint of ~$4.86B compares to Street consensus of ~$4.98B for 2026 revenue, suggesting some conservatism in management's outlook.*

Long-Term Vision: Management reiterated their target for the core business (ex-Jakafi) to reach $3-4B by 2030, up from $1.26B in FY25 (+53% Y/Y). The pipeline carries $10B+ peak net sales opportunity across seven high-value assets, with 14 pivotal trials expected to be underway by year-end 2026.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Pipeline Progress:

1. Monjuvi (tafasitamab): Phase 3 frontMIND trial met primary (PFS) and key secondary (EFS) endpoints in first-line DLBCL, no new safety signals. sBLA submission on track for H1 2026. The 1L DLBCL market represents ~30K patients vs ~15K in current r/r DLBCL indication.

2. Jakafi XR: CRL response submitted to FDA. Decision and potential commercial launch expected mid-2026.

3. INCA033989 (mutCALR): Received Breakthrough Therapy Designation for essential thrombocythemia. Phase 3 trials to initiate mid-2026 (ET 2L) and 2H 2026 (MF 2L), with updated Phase 1 data expected mid-2026.

4. INCB161734 (KRASG12D): Phase 1 update at ASCO GI showed 37% ORR (15/41) as monotherapy at the planned Phase 3 dose in late-line PDAC. Phase 3 initiation in 1L PDAC planned for Q1 2026.

5. Zynyz: Approved in Japan for first-line SCAC. CHMP positive opinion in EU.

6. Povorcitinib: MAA submitted to EMA for hidradenitis suppurativa; FDA NDA acceptance expected Q1 2026. Phase 3 data expected mid-2026 (vitiligo) and Q4 2026 (prurigo nodularis).

Financial Position:

• Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $3.6B vs $2.2B at year-end 2024
• FY25 Non-GAAP operating income of $1.62B vs $414M in FY24 (+290% Y/Y)

How Did the Stock React?

Despite the strong operational beat, INCY traded down ~3.7% in aftermarket to $105.

Why the decline despite the beat? The stock has rallied over 100% from its 52-week low, suggesting high expectations were embedded. The aftermarket reaction may reflect:

• Profit-taking after a massive run
• FY26 guidance that met rather than exceeded elevated expectations
• Increased R&D spending signaling continued investment over near-term margin expansion

Product Revenue Deep Dive

Jakafi — The Core Franchise

Q4 growth was driven by 11% increase in prescriptions across all three indications. PV will be the largest and fastest-growing indication in 2026, with penetration of only 30% vs 60-70% in frontline MF—management described this as "a reliable and significant source of growth going forward." Formulary coverage remains excellent with near-complete coverage across plans.

Jakafi XR, if approved mid-2026, will focus on formulary access in H2; meaningful conversion expected in 2027 targeting 10-30% of the base.

Opzelura — Dermatology Growth Engine

Growth driven by TRx gains in both indications: +24% Y/Y in atopic dermatitis and +15% Y/Y in vitiligo. Key drivers:

• Pediatric launch: Off to a strong start, already annualizing at ~$30M
• International vitiligo: Doubled to $130M in 2025
• Nonsteroidal tailwind: AD nonsteroidal segment growing 20% Y/Y as prescribing migrates from topical steroids

Management's long-term aim is to "nearly double the size of this business." The FY26 guide includes some price actions to expand formulary coverage—management noted these investments are "behind us" and discounting will roll off in 2027+.

FDA indicated an additional clinical study would be required for prurigo nodularis (one Phase 3 positive, one just missed), leading to a pause in that indication. No read-through to HS studies.

Hematology & Oncology Portfolio

The Hem/Onc portfolio delivered exceptional growth with Q4 net sales of $187M (+121% Y/Y) and FY25 of $583M (+83% Y/Y).

Niktimvo achieved broad penetration at BMT centers and deep utilization, used widely in 4L with increasing preference in 3L. For Monjuvi, the frontMIND Phase 3 showed 25% improvement in PFS vs R-CHOP in frontline DLBCL—a regimen that still accounts for 50% of the 1L market.

Combined Hem/Onc guidance of $800-880M (+37-51% Y/Y) implies continued strong momentum.

Operating Expenses & Margins

R&D increase reflects continued investment in late-stage assets and $69M in upfront consideration/milestones to collaborative partners. The company expects 14 pivotal clinical trials underway by year-end.

FY26 Expense Guidance: Total GAAP R&D + SG&A of $3.495-3.675B (+4% at midpoint Y/Y).

• R&D: Up ~10% Y/Y, with 80% concentrated in seven programs (989, 058/784, 734, A90, 667, tafasitamab, povorcitinib)
• G&A: Down 10% Y/Y (deliberate reallocation)
• S&M: Modestly higher for H2 launches
• COGS: Expected to remain stable at 8-9% of net sales

FY25 also included a $76M asset impairment charge related to downtown Wilmington, Delaware properties and a $242M gain from the Novartis contract dispute settlement.

Key Quotes From Management

"Everything we accomplished this past year commercially, scientifically, and operationally has created the foundation for an inflection point in 2026 and beyond."

— Bill Meury, President and CEO

"Our core business excluding Jakafi has the potential to be as large as Jakafi is today by 2030... Our pipeline has the breadth and depth to support top-tier growth and the potential to 2-3x our top line over time."

— Bill Meury, President and CEO

"I am fully convinced that this medicine [989] will be developable in first-line MF."

— Pablo Cagnoni, President of R&D, on mutant CALR antibody potential

Q&A Highlights

On Opzelura's Long-Term Growth Trajectory (Tazeen Ahmad, Bank of America):

Management provided a detailed framework: Opzelura is expected to grow at a 10% U.S. CAGR over 5 years, with AD growing ~20% Y/Y and vitiligo in the mid-teens. The pediatric launch is already annualizing at $30M. International business could add $300M incrementally over 5 years from the moderate AD launch in Europe (AD market is 5x the size of vitiligo). Management emphasized most formulary coverage investments are behind them.

On Monjuvi in Frontline DLBCL (Michael Schmidt, Guggenheim):

The 1L DLBCL market represents ~30,000 patients annually, with 50% still receiving R-CHOP. Management positioned Monjuvi as an "intensification strategy" (adding Monjuvi to LEN + R-CHOP) rather than replacement, differentiating from Polivy's substitution approach. The PFS benefit applies across "the full spectrum of patients" with IPI 3-5.

On CALR Pipeline Strategy (Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs):

For the bispecific (784): Designed to bind a different CALR epitope than the antibody (989), positioning it for patients who don't respond to 989 or need faster/more potent responses. Phase 1 data expected in 2027.

For the V617F inhibitor (058): Team remains "fully committed" to this target. The IC35 exposure target relates to the selectivity window between mutant and wild-type JAK2. New solid dispersion formulation data expected H2 2026, with backup programs advancing.

On Jakafi XR Formulary Access (Andy Chen, Wolfe Research):

Management has engaged all major PBMs. The medical rationale is strong (chronic symptomatic disease, twice-daily dosing, 3-hour half-life—once-daily typically improves adherence 15-25%). Target: 80-100% coverage is unlikely, but enough to enable 10-30% conversion. By 2029, ~$250M could sit in XR. Most of 2026 will focus on formulary access; meaningful conversion expected in 2027.

On Povorcitinib in HS (Matt Phipps, William Blair):

Seeking label in both prebiologic and postbiologic populations. The prebiologic opportunity is compelling: 200,000 patients treated annually, but only 25% use advanced systemics (IL-17s, TNFs). The remaining 75% cycle through antibiotics/steroids that don't address underlying biology. Povorcitinib could be the first FDA-approved oral for HS, capturing patients at two inflection points: (1) prebiologic with no approved options, and (2) postbiologic where IL-17s/TNFs show partial responses.

On KRAS G12D Competitive Landscape (Jay Olson, Oppenheimer):

Management emphasized these are "the largest wide-open white spaces in cancer"—response rates are low, survival is short, no novel frontline treatments in decades. The Phase 3 trial design will combine 734 with both frontline chemotherapy regimens (GemAbraxane + mFOLFIRINOX) with ~50/50 stratification. "We may well be the first G12D to get across the finish line."

2026 Catalysts to Watch

Four anticipated approvals (Jakafi XR, Opzelura mAD EU, Monjuvi 1L DLBCL, povorcitinib HS), two product launches, and seven key data readouts expected.

Bottom Line

Incyte delivered exceptional Q4 results that exceeded expectations on all key metrics. The core Jakafi franchise remains healthy, Opzelura continues its growth trajectory (+24% TRx in AD, +15% in vitiligo), and the Hem/Onc portfolio posted +121% Y/Y growth in Q4. Management's roadmap to $3-4B in core business revenue by 2030 and $10B+ peak sales opportunity from seven pipeline assets provides a clear long-term value creation thesis. With $3.6B in cash and 14 pivotal trials underway in 2026, Incyte has the firepower to execute. The aftermarket pullback appears to reflect profit-taking after the stock doubled in 12 months rather than any fundamental concern with the business.

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Earnings Call: February 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET

Related: INCY Company Profile | Q3 2025 Earnings

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*Values retrieved from S&P Global