Ingredion - Earnings Call - Q3 2021

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ingredion Third Quarter twenty twenty one Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker host today, Mr.

Jason Vice President of Corporate Finance and Interim Vice President of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ingredion's third quarter twenty twenty one earnings call. I'm Jason Pan, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Interim Vice President of Investor Relations. On today's call are Jim Zallie, our President and CEO and Jim Gray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We issued our results today in a press release that can be found on our website, ingredient.com, in the Investors section.

The slides accompanying this presentation can also be found on the website and were posted today for your convenience. As a reminder, our comments within this presentation may contain forward looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and include expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance, including the impact of the COVID-nineteen pandemic. Actual results could differ materially from those estimated in the forward looking statements. And Ingridion assumes no obligation to update them in the future as or if circumstances change.

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed during today's conference call or in this morning's press release can be found in the company's most recently filed annual report on Form 10 ks and subsequent reports on Forms 10 Q and eight ks. During this call, we also refer to certain non GAAP financial measures including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted operating income, and adjusted effective tax rate, which are reconciled to U. S. GAAP measures in Note two, Non GAAP Information, included in our press release and in today's presentation's appendix. Now, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jim Zallie.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. We delivered outstanding third quarter top line performance of 17% net sales growth. This reflected well managed sales execution to meet strong customer demand. In every region, we achieved double digit sales growth by managing price mix and partnering with customers to meet changing demand requirements as a result of global supply chain constraints. In a challenging environment, and against previously anticipated high double digit corn cost inflation, we kept pace with higher input costs to deliver adjusted operating income down 9%.

As you recall, in the first half of this year, we delivered significant year over year EPS growth, absorbing higher gross corn costs while benefiting from higher co product values. Taken together, as we balance first half favorability with higher net corn costs in the second half, we are still on track to deliver significant operating income growth for the full year. Now I'd like to highlight a few of our sales achievements. As mentioned, we grew net sales by double digits across all regions, driven by strong specialty demand and actively managing the terms of our customer contracts, including the pass through of higher margin corn and freight costs. EMEA led our growth this quarter with strong specialty demand in Europe and the positive impact of the KTEC acquisition.

Asia Pacific also performed exceptionally well, driven by contributions from PureCircle and strong overall specialty demand. South America and North America benefited from strong customer demand and the pass through of higher corn and freight costs. Now I'd like to comment on the current supply chain environment that we're all reading about. As everyone knows, supply chains globally are currently constrained by ocean container availability, rail congestion, labor shortages, and continuing impacts of the pandemic. In addition, as economies continue to open, strong international consumer demand has made the current supply situation very challenging.

To put the impact of the supply chain challenges into perspective on our business, as a reminder, the majority of our volume is sourced locally and delivered locally within region. However, for a portion of our specialty foodstarch business, we have an interregional supply chain. For example, about 5% of our US sales are imported from Asia Pacific, of which most are specialty food starches. Therefore, in the first half of this year, we resourced our global supply chain center of excellence to actively manage interregional sourcing and work closely with customers to identify opportunities to best service their needs. In some special circumstances, we've had to exercise agility to meet customer demand for tapioca and rice based starches by air freighting product to meet new product launches or assist with product reformulations.

We anticipate the supply chain to remain constrained through the end of this year. Now moving on to our strategic pillars. We continue to make solid progress against each of our strategic pillars throughout the quarter, executing on key initiatives to advance our strategy. Our specialty ingredients platforms continue to be a catalyst for significant growth, achieving high teens net sales growth for the quarter and exceeding the company's net sales growth. Among the highlights, our sugar reduction and specialty sweeteners growth platform contributed the most sales dollar growth in the quarter.

Additionally, consumers' heightened focus on nutrition and wellness underpinned the robust demand in Q3 for our clean and simple, texture and plant based protein solutions. Moving to commercial excellence, our sales teams around the world responded early in the quarter to the challenge of increasing input costs through pricing actions and by managing commercial terms, which helped us mitigate inflationary impacts to our business. While margins were pressured, on a dollar basis, we recovered nearly all of the cost inflation that we faced in the quarter. Cost Smart continues to deliver benefits and have a transformational effect across our company, as we continue to find ways to reinvent how we work and deliver increased efficiencies and savings. This quarter, we extended our shared service capabilities, implementing a major change management program within our global human resources function that will provide better and more cost efficient HR services.

Overall, we remain on track to deliver against our three year Cost Smart savings program of $170,000,000 which we've increased twice since it was introduced in 2018. All of this progress is underpinned by our purpose and values driven people centric culture. As I'll speak about in more detail shortly, this quarter we are particularly proud to have released our first diversity, equity, and inclusion report, where we shared our DEI progress to date and our commitments for the future. Before discussing this, let me first provide some important updates on the progress we're making in our specialties portfolio. First, turning to sugar reduction.

PureCircle continues to be a catalyst for growth in our sugar reduction and specialty sweeteners platform. During the quarter, PureCircle net sales were up more than 200% year over year, and operating losses decreased by 60%, with both metrics well ahead of our integration plan. Additionally, I'm happy to share that the acquisition is now cash accretive. With a number of recent customer wins and a robust new project pipeline, our sugar reduction and specialty sweeteners team is energized about future growth prospects. Now moving on to plant based proteins.

We continue to see strong demand for plant based protein innovation from both existing and new customers. And albeit off a small base, our net sales doubled for the second consecutive quarter and our project pipeline remains robust. We are intensively focused on increasing supply and ramping up our facilities in South Sioux City, Nebraska and Vanskoye, Canada. Our dry milling production in Vanskoye has reached new monthly production records, and we've just commissioned our specialties concentrates production line in September, which will increase our available supply of these differentiated products by year end. In South Sioux City, our startup continues to make steady progress with production advancing and increases in batch size and consistency.

We estimate we are two thirds through commissioning and process stabilization, and are targeting a steady state process that is able to meet a ramp up in customer demand early next year. We are laser focused on beginning to load this facility and absorbing the costs associated with a new plant startup. Our team is also actively managing yellow pea costs and availability as the drought in Canada has negatively impacted crop size and prices. We are confident we have secured our yellow pea requirements for next year and are assessing the impact of increased raw material costs on next year's financial projections. Before I hand it over to Jim, I want to spend a moment discussing our diversity, equity, and inclusion agenda.

We view our purpose and values driven, people centric culture as an important growth enabler. At the heart of this is a deep commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion. Our inaugural report entitled Everyone Belongs, in recognition of one of our five values, not only celebrates the accomplishments we've made on our DEI journey thus far, but sets new goals, like achieving 100% on HRC's Corporate Equality Index, reaching industry benchmarks for inclusion and belonging improving representation of women in management positions to 50% by 2030 and improving representation of black, indigenous, and people of color at the management level. With these goals, we are intensifying our commitment to creating an environment where diversity is celebrated and inclusion is embraced. We know how important this is for us to attract the most talented employees and foster an inclusive and innovative culture that delivers sustainable growth for shareholders.

We've included a link in our earnings presentation where you can download our new DEI report, and it is also available on our website. Now, let me hand it off to Jim Gray, who will provide a financial review of the quarter. Thank you, Jim,

Speaker 3

and good morning to everyone. Starting first with our Q3 regional performance. North America net sales were up significantly when compared to the prior year. North America operating income was $120,000,000 down 9% versus the prior year. The decrease was driven by higher corn and input costs as well as cost absorption related to the ramp up of operations in our plant based protein facilities.

South America net sales were up 16% versus prior year. The increase was driven by favorable price mix, including active contract management to reflect higher corn costs, partially offset by a volume decline due to the contribution of our Argentina operations to the ARCOR joint venture in August. South America operating income was $35,000,000 up 21% versus prior year as favorable price mix more than offset higher corn costs. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, adjusted operating income was up 20% in the quarter. Moving to Asia Pacific, net sales were up 18% in the quarter.

The increase was driven by favorable price mix and higher volumes, primarily from PureCircle. Asia Pacific operating income was $21,000,000 up 17% versus prior year, as higher volumes from PureCircle and better price mix were partially offset by higher corn, freight and input costs in the region. In EMEA, net sales increased 22% for the quarter. The increase was due to higher volumes, including our KTEC acquisition, as well as favorable pricemix. Mix.

Absent foreign exchange, sales were up 20%. EMEA operating income was $23,000,000 down 8% for the quarter. The decrease was driven by higher corn and energy costs in Pakistan that more than offset higher volumes. Moving to our income statement. Net sales of $1,763,000,000 were up 17% for the quarter versus prior year.

Gross profit dollars were relatively flat year over year, while gross margin was 18.3%, down three forty basis points due to increased revenue reflecting the pass through of higher corn costs. Reported operating income was $172,000,000 and adjusted operating income was $163,000,000 Reported operating income was higher than adjusted operating income, primarily due to a favorable final adjustment to the net asset impairment related to the contribution of Argentina assets to the ARCOR joint venture, partially offset by restructuring costs related to cost of marketing. Our third quarter reported earnings per share was $1.75 and adjusted earnings per share was $1.67 Turning to our Q3 net sales bridge, strong price mix of $212,000,000 was largely attributable to the pass through of higher corn costs in North America and active contract management in South America. The sales volume increase of $39,000,000 was driven by higher volumes in EMEA and Asia Pacific, including the sales volume impact of PureCircle and KTEC, partially offset by the contribution of our Argentina operations to the ARCOR joint venture. Turning to net sales variance by region.

In North America, net sales were up 17% versus prior year, driven by favorable price mix as well as higher specialty ingredient mix. South American net sales were up 16%, driven by strong price mix, primarily due to active contract management to address higher corn cars, which was partially offset by a decline in volume from the contribution of our Argentina operations to the ARCOR joint venture. In Asia Pacific, net sales were up 18%, driven by favorable price mix and higher volumes, primarily from PureCircle. EMEA net sales were up 22%, driven by higher volumes as demand in Europe for specialty ingredients was robust. Sales volume also includes KTEC, which contributed eight points of net sales growth in the quarter.

For the quarter, reported operating income increased $19,000,000 while adjusted operating income decreased $16,000,000 The increase in reported operating income versus adjusted operating income is primarily due to the finalization and completion of the ARCOR joint venture net asset impairment, partially offset by restructuring costs related to Cost Smart. Corporate costs for the company were up for the quarter versus last year, driven by investments in global capabilities and centers of excellence. Turning to our earnings bridge. On the left side of the page, you can see the reconciliation from reported to adjusted earnings per share. On the right side, operationally, we saw a decrease of $0.18 per share for the quarter.

The decrease was primarily driven by operating margin decline of $0.26 partially offset by higher volumes of $07 and favorable foreign exchange of $02 per share. Moving to our non operational items, we saw an increase of $08 per share for the quarter, primarily driven by the impact of lower adjusted effective tax rate of $0.12 per share, partially offset by higher financing costs of $05 per share. For our year to date income statement, the company delivered net sales of $5,139,000,000 up 17% versus prior year. Gross profit margin was 20.3%, down 60 basis points. Year to date reported operating income was $224,000,000 and adjusted operating income was $572,000,000 Reported operating income was lower than adjusted operating income due to the completion and finalization of the ARCOR joint venture, net asset impairments and restructuring costs related to Cost Smart, partially offset by income related to the favorable decision from the Brazilian Supreme Court related to indirect taxes collected from 2015 to 2018.

Our year to date reported earnings per share was $0.74 and adjusted earnings per share was $5.58 Turning to our year to date net sales bridge, we see that all drivers of revenue contributed to growth. Favorable price mix of $433,000,000 was largely attributable to the pass through of higher corn costs in North America and South America. Sales volume increase of $261,000,000 was driven by higher volumes in Asia Pacific, North America and EMEA, including the additions of PureCircle and KTEC. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in South America sales resulting from the completion of the RCOR joint venture. Our year to date operating income bridge, reported operating income decreased $195,000,000 while adjusted operating income increased $99,000,000 versus prior year.

The decrease in year to date reported operating income versus adjusted operating income is primarily due to the net asset impairment charge related to the ARCOR joint venture in Argentina. Operating income was up in all four regions. Year to date corporate costs for the company were up versus last year, driven by investments in global capabilities and centers of excellence. Turning to our year to date earnings bridge. On the left side of the page, we share the reconciliation from reported to adjusted.

On the right side, operationally, we saw an increase of $1.07 per share year to date. The increase was driven by margin improvement of $0.47 higher volumes of $0.44 foreign exchange of $0.10 and other income of $06 per share. Moving to our nonoperational items, we saw an increase of $01 per share year to date. Moving to cash flow. Year to date cash provided by operations was $259,000,000 Cash provided by operations decreased versus prior year, driven by the impact of higher net sales, including higher corn costs on accounts receivable and inventory values.

Capital expenditures were $186,000,000 down $64,000,000 from the prior year period due to the timing of spend. During the quarter, we repurchased $44,000,000 of outstanding shares, increasing our total year to date share repurchase to $68,000,000 With more clarity regarding how demand, pricing and input cost inflation are playing out for the second half of twenty twenty one, we are increasing our full year 2021 adjusted EPS range to $6.65 to $7 per share, up from the previously provided full year outlook of $6.45 to $6.85 We expect net sales to be up low double digits driven by the pass through of higher corn costs, strong price mix and volume recovery. We expect full year adjusted operating income to be up high single digits versus last year. We expect corporate costs to be up low single digits. 2021 financing costs are expected to be in the range of $78,000,000 to 83,000,000 Our adjusted effective annual tax rate is expected to be between twenty five point five percent and twenty seven percent.

Cash flow from operations is expected to be in the range of $450,000,000 to $550,000,000 which includes an increase in expected working capital due to the impact of higher net sales, as well as the impact of higher corn costs on accounts receivables and inventories. Capital investment commitments are expected to be between $320,000,000 and $350,000,000 of which more than $100,000,000 is being invested to drive specialty growth. We expect total diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be in the range of 67,500,000 to $68,000,000 for the year. In terms of our regional outlook, North American net sales are expected to be up 10% to 15%. Operating income is expected to be up low single digits to mid single digits, driven by higher volumes and lower operating expenses.

For South America, we assume the deconsolidation and contribution of our Argentina operations for five months of the year. We expect net sales to be up 10% to 15% and operating income to be up 20% to 25%. In Asia Pacific, we anticipate net sales to be up 20% to 25% versus the prior year, including PureCircle. We expect operating income to be up high single digits, driven by higher volumes. For EMEA, we expect net sales to be up 15% to 20% and operating income to be up high single digits driven by higher volumes, which will be partially offset by higher input costs.

That concludes my comments, and I'll hand it back to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jim. Overall, we are very pleased with both the financial performance in the quarter as well as the strategic progress we continue to make to strengthen our portfolio. Right now, we are focused on supporting our customers as we manage through complex supply chain bottlenecks, which are impacting the entire food supply chain. And just as importantly, we are leveraging the expertise developed in our pricing centers of excellence that were built up over the last two years as we work to offset input cost inflation for the remainder of this year and next year. We will continue to shape our portfolio towards specialties and look for opportunities to invest in new capabilities and businesses that will strengthen the value propositions inherent in each of our on trend, consumer focused growth platforms.

Lastly, we will continue to bring the potential of people, nature, and technology together to make life better for all stakeholders. Now let's open the call for questions.

Speaker 0

And our first question coming from the line of Ben Bienvenu with Stephens Inc. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Ben. Hey, Ben.

Speaker 4

So I want to ask and focus on the Specialty business. You noted the Global Specialties contributed high teen sales growth, continuing to drive strong growth across a lot of your products within that segment of your business. You also talked about improvement in the integration of PureCircle. Could you provide some color on what sort of EBIT contribution we're seeing from specialties relative to that sales growth that we're seeing? And what you think the maturation of that contribution will look like over the next year or so as that portfolio continues to mature?

Speaker 3

Sure. Jim, do you

Speaker 2

want take that?

Speaker 3

Hey, Ben, maybe I'll lead on that. We've characterized our specialty ingredients portfolio, both from a gross margin and from an operating income margin perspective, as being greater than the remainder of our portfolio. Traditionally, we see specialty margins in our products in the 30% plus range. And it can be, for some niche products, it can be significantly more than that on a gross margin basis. And generally, what we're seeing is that as we have moved through this year in terms of various input costs, they generally have less of an impact on our specialties because the raw material is a lower portion of our cost of sales.

So as specialty continues to grow both on a volume basis, on a market share gain basis, and therefore on a revenue basis, we're seeing that EBIT growth somewhat in line with how we talk to the top line growth.

Speaker 2

Yeah, think in our strategic plan, for example, the majority of our gross profit increase over that plan period is coming from specialties. And I think when you saw the most recent four year outlook that we had provided, that the percentage of operating income coming from specialties is projected to increase about four percentage points, I think, over that period from a standpoint of the weight of the overall portfolio. The other Total thing mix. Total mix. Other thing that I would add is part of our strategy is to continue to invest in one of our five growth platforms, which is called Food Systems, which is leveraging the ingredients that are in those other four platforms, starch based texturizers, the clean and simple ingredients, sugar reduction and plant based proteins, from a formulation capability standpoint to develop more complete systems for our customers, which typically are higher gross margin.

And those we have projected that those will grow at a higher rate as well.

Speaker 4

Okay. I see. That's great. Thank you. Secondly, I'd like to ask about just capital allocation.

You look like, based on the way things are going, you'll probably continue to build cash on the balance sheet even as you've accelerated to some extent your buyback activity. You've got a steady dividend at a nice yield. You're farther along in integrating PureCircle. You noted that the pipeline is interesting and attractive. Could you talk about when we think about rank ordering your use of cash over the next year or so, What are the most versus least likely outlets to plug that cash into?

Speaker 3

Sure. Ben, I'll tie your first question to your second question, right, which is that as we grow the specialty portfolio, we're really looking for that contribution in terms of operating income growth. So how can we get operating income growth mid single digit to high single digits? We do that by looking around the globe at where we have capital investments, organic capital investments that our team identifies. And that's really one of our first priorities in terms of capital investment after what I would call our stay in business capital.

And the reason why is that those opportunities are near end, they're adjacent, they're strategic. And our whole team can really operate on our value chain and on the go to market opportunity. So for example, we're investing in a modified foodstarch expansion in China. And China is a tremendously underserved market for modified starches. And we can bring great differentiated product that's sourced locally and made locally and sold into a massive market.

So that's the type of opportunities where we first prioritize. I think secondarily then, we're really looking at we're very conscious about the dividend and dividend growth. We've raised the dividend seven years in a row. And then third, we still have excess cash to deploy strategically. And really, it's a choice between what M and A is there available to us that we think we can prudently go after and do so with a disciplined approach towards ROIC.

I think we've proven that we can get synergies out of the acquisitions that we've executed in the past. Still some of that evidence is for us to show. We highlighted here on the call PureCircle and the progress we're making on PureCircle going into next year. So M and A, tuck in M and A, M and A in general, is very much a focus for us. And if not, then we'll go after some share repurchase and be very disciplined about total shareholder return.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thanks, Jim. Jim, good luck with the rest of the year.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ben.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Ben.

Speaker 0

And our next question coming from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi. A couple of questions. One is on in Asia Pac, it looks like you lowered your sales guidance for the year. Is that related to PureCircle? Or is that related to just the challenge of global trade in a tight supply chain environment?

And then also, can you elaborate a little more on the yellow pea crop and what that means for your operations? What's your going in assumption for profitability of that new pea protein business for 2022? And what do you think the potential outcomes are if the crop turns out to be much more expensive?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I'll let Jim take Asia Pac and I'll take the yellow pea question. Yeah.

Speaker 3

Hey Rob, with regard to Asia Pac, really as we looked at what we thought the recovery was in from last year in terms of volume, really if you look at Q3, South Southern Asia, right, whether it's Thailand and ASEAN type of regions or even China with kind of intermittent lockdowns. There's just been kind of some ups and downs in terms of the volume growth as we've had just starts and stops in various food supply chains as well as kind of ins and outs on food service. So I think that that's now we see that we see COVID rates coming down. We see consumer mobility up. Thinking a bit more positively on Asia Pac for Q4.

But really, when we just take Q3 and what maybe that slight pause had into effect, I think that's impacting our full year outlook. And it really has nothing to do with PureCircle. PureCircle growth is still strong double digits.

Speaker 2

And as far as the plant based protein investment in Yellow P, you know, we continue to remain very bullish on the growth prospects from both South Sioux City and the Vanskoye investments. We absolutely believe that plant based proteins are going to represent a sizable portion of our specialty portfolio over the next three, four, five years. We're very encouraged by the progress our manufacturing and engineering teams have made to commission two entirely new production facilities in a completely new ingredient category to Ingredion. And the Vanskoye facility, as we indicated, continues to produce at record rates in comparison to previous months. Right now the focus is on South Sioux City completing that process stabilization and ramping up that supply to meet customer demand.

Our plant based protein sales in 2021 will be two to three times what they were last year. That said, they will be behind our first year forecast. And that's why we're laser focused on loading the facility and absorbing the cost associated with the new plant startup. So while this will result in a larger operating loss than we had projected this particular year, we're confident in the long term prospects for the category and for the return on those investments.

Speaker 3

Yeah. And generally Rob, mean to add, we see Yellow Pew cost or the cost of the raw material going up, the first indications are that it's such a value added product that raw material pricing can be put through on the higher end protein isolate and concentrate.

Speaker 5

Okay. So when you say that the loss is larger than expected, is that because the crop is weak or is it because of other No. Types of

Speaker 2

No, no. So again, we are just commissioning these facilities this calendar year. So the yellow pea cost is not related to that at all. So it's just related to the merging of the commercial ramp up of the facilities tied to sales in the first year literally of commissioning both facilities.

Speaker 5

Okay. Is it easy to catch up in year two then, Jim? We've a strong

Speaker 2

customer pipeline. We're having very strategic discussions with some of the largest users and projected users, for example, pea protein isolate and pulse based concentrates, across food and other applications. So And we're feeling very good about the prospect going into 2022. Rob, maybe just to help.

Speaker 3

On South Sioux City, there's just more fixed costs with that facility, just given the complexity of the process. So the more volume you get through, you absorb the fixed costs and then you get right back on plan.

Speaker 5

Okay. Last question. In the quarter, gross profit margin was below consensus. Was it in line with what you thought internally? Or was it a little light?

Speaker 3

No, I think it was in line with what we were expecting. Recognizing, look, in our business, quite a bit of it is in terms of as we've mentioned in North America, a portion is variable price, so it's fee type contract. Revenue is going to go up as the cost of corn goes up. And we're really securing kind of our dollar profit per ton for the value add service that we provide. So I think in terms of gross profit dollars, looking at the various corn cost inflation, which was probably three quarters of our change in our cost of sales for the quarter, that was very in line with expectations.

Speaker 5

Got it. Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question coming from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Hey, Adam. Yes. Hi, Adam.

Speaker 6

Hi. So first question, maybe just to clarify just as we think about the layout for the fourth quarter. I think the full year implies that adjusted operating profit in 4Q is down 20% plus year over year. And I'm maybe just help us with where the incremental year on year pressures are coming through in 4Q relative to where you were in the third quarter? And I know corn costs are more burdensome in the second half of the year broadly, but it does seem to imply a bigger step down sequentially.

And I'm just trying to make sure we're clear on the drivers.

Speaker 2

Thanks Adam. The first, you know, I just want to bring us back to the first nine months of the year, gross corn costs were in line with our business plan and we benefited from higher co product values. In addition, volumes, particularly specialties, were stronger than anticipated due to the snapback of the global economies opening up, inclusive of really very strong food service sales. And in the third quarter, we kept pace with higher input costs to deliver operating income in line with our expectations against, again, previously anticipated high double digit corn cost inflation, and we also delivered very strong price mix. In quarter four, we're anticipating further inflationary cost increases and some supply chain constraints limiting volume upside.

And we're obviously imposing price surcharges in year, which is what we've been doing. And they will just lag some of the increase in input costs. But we're taking all that into account as we go into our contracting and pricing for next year with momentum on the pricing side. Yes. And Adam, just to remind, right, Q3 is usually a bigger quarter than Q4.

Speaker 3

And that, as we had previously discussed and as Jim just mentioned, just still managing through higher corn costs year over year. I mean that's the primary impact that we're seeing in terms of Q4.

Speaker 6

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then follow-up question, and you kind of alluded to it a little bit in that answer just now, Jim. But, also throughout the the the call today, you made several illusions to to actively managing customer contracts and and pricing and being considerably more proactive on that than maybe Ingredion had been historically.

And I'd love to hear you reflect a little bit about what you're actually doing, with on the pricing side to to really make sure you're you're getting that that inflation recovery. And is that

Speaker 3

both in the more in

Speaker 6

the in the base commodity business and specialty? Is it both? If it's commodity, is that a better supply environment, with volumes improving? Or just help me think about how maybe Ingredion's kind of pricing discipline is maybe different today than it might have been a couple years ago.

Speaker 2

Yeah. We've been emphasizing what we call pricing centers of excellence for the last year plus. And the best evidence of that is in South America. So South America has developed very strong pricing muscles that have been demonstrated in relationship to the magnitude of price mix vis a vis forex devaluation over each successive quarter over the last two years. So much so that I think it was last quarter and this quarter, it's almost a complete neutralization without even the lag.

That's one example. So we've shared best practices across the globe and staffed, and we're fortunate we did so prior to inflation rearing its head. That's why we're feeling very good. And this particular year, as it relates extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures, when you're living through inflation in year, even though we're contracted, we're looking at each and every contract, where possible, where we can in year exercise the terms that are in those contracts to put through freight increases of an order of magnitude that offsets those cost increases, surcharges where necessary, and any other inflationary increases. So we're doing that in each region based on those pricing centers of excellence.

And just if I could comment a little bit just on pricing as it relates to the go forward, The increased economic activity and increased industry capacity utilization, we believe, will be favorable to pricing next year. Corn prices are, as we all know, trending in the mid $5 range for next year, which would imply substantial increases in corn costs. And the industry is contending with the increases in chemicals, packaging, fuel, freight. And all of that's going to need to be offset by pricing. And consistent with our operating model, we expect to pass through higher corn freight input costs to our customers, and that's really been the primary focus to our customers since early summer.

And equally, the pace of contracting is likely to be impacted by customers' concern for supply, as well as the uncertainty around continued inflationary pressures. And I can say for those customers who we have agreed to 2022 commitments at this time, we're seeing substantial price increases year over year. And we'll provide a readout on 2022 contracting during our year end earnings call in February.

Speaker 6

All right, great. That color is really helpful. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question coming from the line of Kim Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Kim. Hi,

Speaker 7

one bigger picture question. Your cash flow from your cash flow guidance came down a little bit, but you're obviously taking up expectations and your CapEx is going down. What is that in reference to? Just kind of giving that a little color, that would be helpful.

Speaker 3

Sure. Hey, Ken, just as you have higher corn and raw materials, just working from the raw material to the WIP to the finished goods, and then we're selling those to customers. So your volume may be up low single, mid single digits. The price on that ton is benefiting from the pass through of that higher corn cost. And so therefore, the invoice that goes to the customer is more.

And then as you just work through the various terms with the customers in terms of their payables, as sales grow, we have to put a little bit more money into accounts receivable. And then as that higher raw material cost is passing through our inventory, be it WIP or finished goods and we're holding it, while the number of units may be similar or even slightly more constrained or down year over year due to demand, the value per unit, the value per ton is up. And so that's just reflecting in our balance sheet. I really think this is as this globally higher corn cost has moved through the balance sheet in 2021, we'll be back to kind of a more normalized investment in working capital in 2022 and beyond.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then in terms of Europe and the energy costs, how transient is that? And do you expect to be able to start passing it through that we would start to see a different trajectory in 2022?

Speaker 4

Yes, I mean,

Speaker 2

one significant item as it relates to input costs that we are putting through as far as price increases go. Europe accounts for 55% of our sales in EMEA, and in accordance with our risk management strategy, we hedge for Europe our natural gas needs, and we're covered well into next year. So we're monitoring the situation, and we are intending to put through increases to offset the inflationary increases with energy as well as other raw materials and other input costs for contracting for next year in Europe.

Speaker 7

Okay. And my final question, and we've all kind of beat around the bush on this, I'm just going to go right after Have you finished contracting in The U. S? And do you expect your prices to offset the corn prices going forward? And then I'll leave it there.

Speaker 2

It's just too early. We're in the midst of contracting as we always are at this point in time. But what I would repeat is the market, given how tight supply demand is, related to very strong demand. So that's what we're seeing, very strong demand. And we could sell everything that we make, and our plants are running very hard.

And there's acknowledgment, if not acceptance, in relationship to the need for price increases to offset inflationary increases. And we're seeing that receptivity. And it's just too early to say how it's all going to net out. But right now, we sit, we're feeling good about the market's understanding and the receptivity for price increases to offset inflationary increases. Yeah.

Think, Ken, to add, it's November. We're about a third

Speaker 3

of the way through, I think, our kind of flat contracting. And on that, we have seen substantial price increases year over year. So to Jim's comment, right, there's still two thirds of our customers out there who are looking at their contracts. And think honestly, I think customers are working through budgeting for next year and they're working through how does that fit into what their overall price increases need to be on their goods. So we expect it to pick up.

This should be the time of the year when it should be really kind of closing out prior Thanksgiving and then the holidays.

Speaker 2

And that percentage that Jim cited is totally in line with historical. So it's not anything that's unusual.

Speaker 7

Great. I really appreciate it, guys. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ken. That'd good, Ken.

Speaker 0

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference call back over to Mr. Jim Zallie for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us this morning, everyone. We look forward to a time when we can see each of you again in person. Please note that we are targeting our Investor Day for the first half of twenty twenty two, when we expect to be able to accommodate in person gatherings. And until then, we want to thank you for your continued interest in Ingredion.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.