Ingredion - Earnings Call - Q4 2020

Transcript

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Ingredion Incorporated Fourth Quarter twenty twenty Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Tiffany Willis, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Officer.

Thank you. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Shannon, and good morning, and welcome to Ingredion's Fourth Quarter twenty twenty Earnings Call. I'm Tiffany Willis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Officer. On today's call are Jim Zallie, our President and CEO and Jim Gray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We issued our results today in a press release that can be found on our website, ingrudeon.com, in the Investors section. The slides accompanying this presentation can also be found on the website and were posted today for your convenience.

As a reminder, our comments within this presentation may contain forward looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance, including the impact of the COVID nineteen pandemic. Actual results could differ materially from those predicted in the forward looking statements. And Ingredion assumes no obligation to update them in the future as or if circumstances change.

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed during today's conference call or in this morning's press release can be found in the company's most recently filed annual report on Form 10 ks and subsequent reports on Forms 10 Q and eight ks. During this call, we also refer to certain non GAAP financial measures, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted operating income, and adjusted effective tax rate, which are all reconciled to U. S. GAAP measures in Note two, non GAAP information included in our press release and in today's presentation's appendix. And now, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jim Zallie.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Tiffany, and good morning, everyone. Before discussing our strong fourth quarter results, I'd like to comment on the events of last year and put in perspective what it said about the resilience of our business, the character of our people, as well as the quality and relevance of our strategy for growth. Guided by clear priorities from the start of the pandemic in support of our employees' health and safety and our customers' needs, we were able to not just ensure business continuity, but enhance business services, improve operational efficiency, drive commercial excellence, and improve the customer experience. Our business adjusted quickly to the abrupt and historic slowdown of economic activity in quarter two to ensure we were well positioned to participate in a steady second half recovery and enable us to exit the year with positive momentum. Throughout the year, our people kept rising to the challenge, persevering with a purpose and progressing an ambitious operational agenda.

Finally, last year further validated the robustness of our strategy, providing us with continued strong confidence in the targeted areas we are pursuing for growth. Now turning to the fourth quarter and full year results, we were very pleased with our operational execution and financial performance. For the quarter, global net sales were up 3% compared to the year ago period. Absent foreign exchange impacts of $26,000,000 net sales were up 4% versus the prior year. Quarter four net sales results were sequentially better than the third quarter's 5% year over year decline, thus demonstrating demand recovery.

Adjusted operating income for the quarter was up 11% year over year and up 13% absent foreign exchange impacts, driven by lower operating costs and favorable pricemix in North America, as well as strong pricemix and better volumes in South America. For the full year, our global net sales were down 4% compared to the year ago period. Absent foreign exchange impacts of $164,000,000 net sales were only down 1% versus the prior year. Adjusted operating income for the year was down 7% year over year and down 3% absent foreign exchange impacts. The decrease is largely attributable to lower sales volumes in North America due to COVID-nineteen's impact on economic activity, the inclusion of PureCircle results, and higher corporate costs due to strategic investments to drive business and digital transformations.

These decreases were partially offset by strong pricemix in South America. As you can see from our first quarter twenty twenty results, we entered the year with good momentum. At the height of the pandemic's impact, our second quarter results were pressured, but we adjusted our operations and supply chain quickly to the new reality and pivoted to serve our customers in new and different ways. This enabled us to benefit from the recovery as COVID-nineteen restrictions began to ease in the third quarter. The momentum carried forward into the fourth quarter, resulting in a great quarter and a positive close to the year.

Our teams executed well, and our strategy was validated. We made excellent progress against our strategic pillars and are pleased to share some great proof points with you. Specialty Ingredients proved particularly resilient, growing globally and in each region, with overall specialty sales now accounting for 32% of Ingredion's total sales, up from 30% in 2019. The PureCircle and Verdient acquisitions set us up well to capitalize on the growth in sugar reduction and plant based foods, and we continue to diversify our specialties portfolio beyond corn, expanding capacity and capabilities in tapioca, rice, and potato based specialty starches. We were recognized by many customers for our supply and service responsiveness to the challenges presented by the pandemic and the creative way in which we engaged and delivered commercial excellence in a virtual world.

We collaborated in over 1,300 digital engagements last year. Partnering with our customers, we also made great strides against our 2025 goal to be 100% sustainably sourced for our six primary nature based raw materials. We exceeded the 90,000,000 to $100,000,000 Cost Smart target for 2020 by delivering $103,000,000 of run rate savings. We established an office of transformation, progressed globalizing shared services, and have embarked on a new phase of reimagining and reinventing the way we work, leveraging digital tools and new organizational constructs to drive simplification and deliver increased efficiencies. All of this work was underpinned by our purpose led culture and foundational values, which helped guide us as we navigated the health crisis and managed the impact to employees from elevated social injustices made so apparent in 2020.

We continued expanding our specialty portfolio significantly enhancing our growth prospects in plant based and animal alternative proteins and solutions for sugar reduction. The Verdient acquisition expands our plant based proteins capabilities, adding a broad portfolio of in demand, sustainable, pulse based flours and protein concentrates. At the same time, our South Sioux City facility has been recommended for food grade certification, and we are processing pea protein isolate in preparation for commercialization this year. The expected future capacity from these investments has led to the development of a growing customer project pipeline, which we expect will convert to specialty sales as we move through 2021. Our acquisition of the leading producer of stevia based sweeteners, PureCircle, has significantly expanded our capabilities in sugar reduction.

We've moved swiftly to integrate this business, actioning over $14,000,000 of cost synergies before the end of last year. These moves, along with the benefits inherent in leveraging Ingredion's global go to market network, provide exciting opportunities to drive revenue synergies commencing in the first half of this year as we offer more complete sugar reduction systems to a broader base of customers. Moving to Cost Smart, we delivered significant improvements in operational efficiencies and achieved $103,000,000 of run rate savings well in excess of our 2020 Cost Smart savings target. We remain on track to reach our $170,000,000 target CostSmart savings target. And now let me hand it off to Jim Gray, who will provide a financial review.

Jim?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim. North America net sales were flat for the quarter versus prior year. Volume continued to improve following net sales declines in the previous two quarters. Operating income was $129,000,000 up 14% versus the prior year. The increase was driven by the layout of corn costs during the year and favorable price mix.

For the year, net sales were down 4%, driven by sales volume decline in the second and third quarters due to COVID-nineteen impacts on consumer mobility and consumption. Operating income was $487,000,000 a decrease of $35,000,000 which was driven by significantly lower away from home consumption across the region and the shutdown of brewery customers in Mexico in the second quarter, partially offset by lower net corn costs and favorable price mix in the fourth quarter. Moving to South America in the quarter, net sales were up 6% versus prior year. Absent foreign exchange, sales were up 19%, driven by favorable price mix across the region and better volumes in Brazil. Q4 operating income was $44,000,000 up 26% versus prior year as favorable price mix and higher volume more than offset foreign exchange impacts.

Excluding foreign exchange impacts, adjusted operating income was up 40% in the quarter. For the year, net sales were down 4% driven by foreign exchange impacts primarily in Brazil. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, net sales were up 10% due to strong pricemix. Full year operating income was $112,000,000 an increase of $16,000,000 from the year ago period due to strong pricemix, which was partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency and lower sales volumes. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, operating income was up 35%.

Moving to Asia Pacific, net sales were up 8% in the quarter compared to the prior year, which includes the addition of PureCircle. Absent PureCircle, Asia Pacific net sales would have been flat. Operating income was $20,000,000 in the fourth quarter, down 9% versus prior year. This includes a $6,000,000 operating loss for PureCircle. Excluding PureCircle, fourth quarter operating income was $26,000,000 up $4,000,000 from the year ago period, driven by lower input costs and lower operating expenses.

Full year net sales were down 1%, driven by lower volumes and unfavorable price mix, partially offset by the addition of PureCircle revenues for five months of the year. Full year operating income was $80,000,000 a decrease of 7,000,000 or 8% from the year ago period. Absent the PureCircle loss of $11,000,000 full year operating income was up $4,000,000 from the prior year. As lower input costs and COVID-nineteen government related subsidies offset lower first half volumes due to the pandemic. Shifting to EMEA.

Our sales were up 6% for the quarter. The increase was largely attributable to favorable specialties volume in Europe and price mix gains in Pakistan. Operating income was $29,000,000 up 4% for the quarter. The increase was driven by lower input costs and favorable mix in Europe. For the full year, net sales were flat as favorable price mix and volumes were offset by foreign exchange impacts.

Operating income was $102,000,000 an increase of $3,000,000 from 2019. Excluding foreign currency impacts, operating income was up 7%. Turning to the consolidated corporate results. Net sales of $1,593,000,000 were up 3% for the quarter versus prior year. Gross profit margin was 22.1%, up 124 basis points.

Reported and adjusted operating incomes were $163,000,000 and $186,000,000 respectively. Reported operating income was lower than adjusted operating income due to trade name impairment, restructuring costs related to our Cost Smart program and acquisition and integration costs, which were partially offset by a benefit from a Brazilian revenue tax judgment. Our reported and adjusted earnings per share were $1.7 and $1.75 respectively. Fourth quarter net sales of $1,593,000,000 were up 3% versus prior year. We experienced negative foreign exchange impacts of $26,000,000 Sales volume increase of $4,000,000 was driven by the inclusion of PureCircle results as well as higher volumes in EMEA and South America, partially offset by lower volumes in North America.

Favorable price mix of $66,000,000 was largely attributable to pricing actions in South America. Please note that these results benefited from the timing of a $5,000,000 revenue tax adjustment in Brazil. Turning to net sales variance by region. In North America, net sales were flat versus prior year as pricemix was offset by sales volume decline, driven by lower volumes in Mexico as recovery remained subdued as the restrictions due to COVID-nineteen lingered. South American net sales were up 6%, driven by a price mix increase of 18%, which more than offset the negative impact from foreign exchange weakness.

In Asia Pacific, net sales were up 8%, driven by the inclusion of PureCircle volumes. Excluding PureCircle, net sales were flat. EMEA net sales were up 6%, driven by specialty volume growth in Europe, favorable price mix in Pakistan, and a benefit from foreign exchange. For the quarter, reported operating income decreased $7,000,000 while adjusted operating income increased $18,000,000 The decrease in reported operating income versus adjusted operating income is primarily due to the reasons I previously mentioned. Operating income was up in North America, South America, and EMEA.

Operating income in Asia Pacific would have also been up excluding PureCircle's $6,000,000 operating loss. Corporate costs for the quarter include strategic investments to drive business and digital transformation and a onetime R and

Speaker 2

D expense. In

Speaker 3

addition, our company incurred incremental expenses due to COVID-nineteen for compensation, personal protective equipment, sanitation and health screenings. This direct expense amounted to $2,000,000 during the quarter and $13,000,000 for the full year, with the majority incurred in North America. Turning to our earnings bridge. On the left side of the page, you can see the reconciliation from reported to adjusted. On the right side, operationally, we saw an increase of $0.19 per share for the quarter.

The increase was driven by margin improvement of $0.33 which was partially offset by lower volumes of $0.12 and unfavorable foreign exchange of $04 Moving to our nonoperational items, we saw an increase of $02 per share for the quarter. Please note that financing costs were higher by $03 due to the impact of Argentina's hyperinflation accounting. Year to date, net sales of $987,005,000 were down 4% versus the year ago period. Gross profit margin was 21.2%, up 12 basis points. Reported and adjusted operating incomes were $582,000,000 and $659,000,000 respectively.

Reported operating income was lower than adjusted operating income due to restructuring costs related to Cost Smart, trade name and other impairments and acquisition and integration costs, partially offset by the benefit from a Brazilian revenue tax judgment. Our reported and adjusted earnings per share were $5.15 and $6.23 Year to date net sales of $5,987,000,000 were down 4% from a year ago. Foreign exchange weakness negatively impacted sales by $164,000,000 Sales volumes declined $2.00 $2,000,000 of which $183,000,000 occurred in the second quarter. Net sales were favorably impacted by $144,000,000 of pricemix. In North America, net sales were down 4% versus prior year, as sales volume decline of 5% was driven by lower volumes in The U.

S. And Mexico. South America net sales were down 4%, driven by impacts from foreign exchange weakness of minus 14%, which was partially offset by pricemix increase of 12%. In Asia Pacific, net sales were down 1%, driven by unfavorable pricemix and partially offset by volume. EMEA net sales were flat as pricemix offset negative foreign exchange impacts in Pakistan.

Full year operating income decreased $82,000,000 while adjusted operating income decreased $46,000,000 The decrease in reported operating income versus adjusted operating income is primarily due to the reasons I mentioned previously. Operating income was up in South America and EMEA, which was more than offset by declines in North America and Asia Pacific. While Asia Pacific's operating income is down, please note that this includes an $11,000,000 operating loss for PureCircle. Corporate costs for the year include strategic investments to drive business and digital transformation as well as onetime R and D expense. Turning to our full year earnings bridge.

Operationally, we saw a decrease of $0.50 per share, driven by volume decline of $0.53 Unfavorable foreign exchange and other income represented declines of $0.24 and $02 per share, respectively. These decreases were partially offset by margin improvement of $0.29 per share. Moving to our non operational items. We saw an increase of $0.13 per share year to date, driven by lower financing costs and other non operating income items. Moving to cash flow.

Year to date cash provided by operations was $829,000,000 Cash provided by operations improved versus prior year as working capital cash inflow in the current year was lapping a working capital cash outflow in the prior year. Capital expenditures were $330,000,000 up $5,000,000 from the prior year due to the timing of payments for investments in our growth projects. At quarter end, we had cash and cash equivalents of $665,000,000 During the year, we deployed cash towards the acquisitions of PureCircle and Verdient. For the full year, the company anticipates net sales and operating income to be up modestly, driven by Specialty Ingredients growth, other volume recovery and Cost Smart savings. As mentioned in our press release earlier today, due to the uncertain environment, the company is not currently providing guidance for full year 2021 EPS or cash flow from operations.

Also for the full year, we expect corporate costs to be flat and anticipate reported and adjusted effective tax rate in the range of 26.5% to 28%. Capital investment commitments are expected to be between $330,000,000 and $350,000,000 of which more than $100,000,000 is being invested to drive specialty growth. For the first quarter, we anticipate total company net sales to be slightly up and operating income to be modestly up. We are watchful of COVID-nineteen infection rates as well as the pace and effectiveness of vaccination rollouts, as we see net sales volume generally correlated with increased consumer activity and availability of food and beverages consumed away from home. As far as the regional outlook, we anticipate the following for the first quarter.

North America net sales to be slightly down as we lap pre pandemic quarter and operating income to be flat. Moving to South America, we expect continued volume recovery and strong pricing gains. In EMEA, we anticipate modest net sales growth and operating income to be slightly up. Finally, for Asia Pacific, we are expecting strong net sales growth and operating income to be flat to slightly up as we expect improvement in PureCircle's operating loss. With that, let me turn the call back to Jim Zallie.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jim. Before taking questions, I'd like to share with you some recent recognition we received. Ingredion was recently recognized once again by Fortune as one of the world's most admired companies for the twelfth consecutive year. Also in recognition of our commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion, we were included for the fourth consecutive year in the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index and earned a near perfect score on the Human Rights Campaign's twenty twenty one Corporate Equality Index. These recognitions are a testament to the progress we continue to make to fulfill our purpose to make life better for our employees, customers, suppliers, and all stakeholders.

Before closing, I'm also pleased to announce the addition of Eric Sipe to my executive leadership team. Eric joined Ingredion as Senior Vice President, Global Operations, and Chief Supply Chain Officer in January. Eric brings more than thirty years of operational excellence, supply chain, logistics, and procurement expertise to Ingredion. Finally, all of us at Ingredion continue to be directed by our roadmap for value creation. Despite the unprecedented challenges of last year, we look back with pride on the progress we made to strengthen the value propositions of our growth platforms, connect and co create in new and different ways with customers, and have our employees live each day inspired by our purpose.

That concludes my comments. And now let's open the call to questions.

Speaker 0

Our first question comes from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens Inc. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Morning, Ben.

Speaker 4

I want to ask about your 2021 guidance. I think it's notable and probably pleasantly surprising to most that the 1Q guidance is as strong as it is in light of how much net corn costs appear like they could have gone up. I'm curious, particularly guiding to flat op income for North America in the first quarter, What's going on operationally, whether it be hedging or product mix, that you guys have seen that give you the confidence to guide that way? And then alongside that, given that 1Q looks to be one of the toughest compares of the year, it makes the full year guidance look potentially conservative. Is that just a byproduct of uncertainty related to COVID?

Or is it something else?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I'll take the last question first. I think that the uncertainty that exists still around the world is the reason to be cautious, you know, for the outlook for the full year to be able to have visibility that far into the future, I think, is the reason why you may interpret the full year comments to be the way they are. As it relates to, the net corn equation, let me turn that over to Jim to talk about. Jim?

Speaker 3

Ben, our North America contracting was substantially complete by mid December. And as you know, our hedging practices match the changes in the gross cost of corn with the changes in the co product values. So given the increase in corn futures layout after mid December, we really feel like both Q1 and into the first half of the year, we hedged effectively as our customers were contracting. We've taken that into consideration. Obviously, the run up in corn really since really after mid December all the way up and through what we're seeing today in January, we taken that current layout as of mid January into our outlook for both North America as well as the company.

Speaker 4

Okay. Makes perfect sense. You we appreciate the guidance you did provide on 2021 as it relates to the operating income. You also provided the tax rate guidance. Is the reluctance to provide adjusted EPS guidance a function of the financing costs and the exposure to Argentina hyperinflation?

Or what kind of that last missing variable, what caused you to be reluctant to go all the way to an adjusted EPS guidance?

Speaker 3

I'll take it. Sure. I think two questions, or two reasons. One is just as we look at the impacts of COVID, we're definitely seeing more muted impacts of a surge in infection rates on away from home consumption. I think if you looked at the end of the year December, the impact of food service in The US, for example, was much, much less than the impact of food service back in April.

Yet we're still cautious. It's not as clear at the pace of the vaccination rollouts. And we're still going to be prudent about what a surge in cases can do to various government actions, restrictions on indoor dining, and generally how people feel about consumer mobility. So that's reason one. I think the second reason, as you mentioned, is that if you have a devaluation of the Argentina peso, because we're under hyperinflation accounting, that will impact financing costs and puts a toggle, puts a variable into the EPS.

Even though it's a noncash expense, that likelihood or probability still looms out there in the future.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks and congrats on the results. Thanks, Ben.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Hi, Ken. Hi, Ken.

Speaker 5

In terms of the specialty business, can you talk about what the volumes were for the quarter? And then can you is there a way to differentiate or is there a differentiation among geographies or products among the 32 of specialty products? And can you give us some color on that now, given that it's now a sizable part of the portfolio?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I mean, special we were very pleased with our specialties ingredients performance in the year. They proved, you know, particularly resilient in 2020 with all the regions showing growth. And what we also felt very strongly about was that the impacts of the pandemic really did not change in any way the strategy or the value propositions inherent in those growth platforms. All of them are very complementary to one another from a standpoint of the formulating possibilities that we can offer our customers.

When you think about sugar reduction, for example, we use the term functional build back as it relates to providing the mouthfeel and bulk that is lost when, sugar is replaced, when you're using a natural high intensity sweetener like stevia, for example. So that's a very good complement. When it comes to plant based protein, it's not just about offering the nutritional quality, but it's also about offering a complete textural solution. So in the case of alternative meats or alternative dairy, for example, a systems first approach for us is something that we are you know, that is resonating with customers in our offerings as it relates to being able to not only structure a meat alternative or a dairy alternative, but complement it from a mouthfeel standpoint with starch, or a hydrocolloid, for example. So all of them are different, unique, but all complementary.

And they're supported by our fifth growth platform, which is food systems, which we continue to target for geographic expansion as well as capability build, because we genuinely believe the industry is much more accommodating, given changes in labor availability for more integrated complete solutions. And the four growth platforms supported by the Fifth really allow us that capability.

Speaker 4

Go ahead, Ken. No, no, if you

Speaker 5

were going answer the other part of my question that would

Speaker 3

be helpful. Think that underlies that is insights into consumer preferences. And each of the target areas that we look at for specialty is mid single to high single digit volume growth.

Speaker 5

Okay, so speaking, is there a variance among geographies or product mix that you think about it? Or should we assume that it all grows, the 32% grows five percent throughout the whole portfolio? Or are just giving us an average? Is there any dispersion?

Speaker 2

Yeah, Ken, at CAGNY last year, we talked about prospects or the net sales outlook for the growth platforms for the four year period going back to CAGNI last year. And just to give you the specifics, I'm just going to remind you of what we said in CAGNI last year. Starch based texturizers, 3% to 5% Clean and Simple Ingredients, five to 8%. Plant based proteins would be up significantly because they're off a small base. Sugar reduction and specialty sweeteners, that was pre PureCircle.

We had said 10 to 14%, and Food Systems was up seven to 10. Just as a little bit of a teaser, you know, we will be discussing this at CAGNY and revising and updating this at CAGNY in a couple weeks. So if that's helpful. That would

Speaker 5

be helpful, thank you. And then my last question, just to understand. The North American business, you talked about the pricing and the dynamics there. In the can you remind us how it works outside The U. S?

And what is the typical lag? And is there some sequential improvement throughout the year as you get more pricing given the higher corn prices? How we think about that on a cadence throughout the year? And how do you think about the pricing dynamic outside The U. S?

Speaker 2

Let me start and let me then have Jim complement what I'm going to say. So let me take Europe for example. So Europe goes through a traditional annual contracting cycle very similar to The United States, and that is complete. And we feel good about where that ended up. Pakistan will have two corn crops and will price throughout the year.

And that business has and the pricing has proven to be very resilient. In South America, South America over the last number of years has demonstrated, I think, tremendous pricing agility to be able to price through. Typically there is a lag of three months, we say. But they have developed increasingly strong pricing muscles that have enabled them to push through. In fact, on one of the earnings calls not that long ago, talked about I I think we got to almost 90% of our pass through within a quarter.

Typically it's about 70 to 80%, and then it catches up thereafter. And in Asia Pacific, it's an annual contracting period. And there are always, though, new opportunities that develop throughout the year, and so we're pricing as we go based on new wins, for example, in that region. And I think you're very familiar with U. S.

Pricing and contracting.

Speaker 4

Great, I appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ken.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi, thanks for the question. Jim Gray, I just wanted to make sure I understood the explanation for how the price negotiations in December came out And then what happened after? I think you said that corn costs started rising after that. So are you saying that you think that the negotiations went well, that you covered where corn was in December, but then there was an increase after that that needs to be coped with specifically in North America? Or am I misunderstanding?

Speaker 4

Yes.

Speaker 2

Rob, let me take it since it relates to, you know, contracting piece, and then let me let Jim add any color commentary. You know, when we go back to, say, the beginning of contracting in early November, you know, prior to the news of an effective vaccine coming out on November 10, think it was, the industry was facing uncertainty regarding the important recovery in food service demand in The U. S. And then the subsequent demand for beverage consumption away from home. So that was the kind of climate as we entered into contracting.

As a result, you know, we expected to see and we expect to see increased consumer mobility and volume recovery in 2021. So against that backdrop, as we went into contracting, contracting for us ended up with expected volume gains and some modest margin compression. That said, we expect full year profit growth in North America from manufacturing productivity and strong operating expense control. Jim, did

Speaker 6

you want to add to that?

Speaker 3

Yeah, maybe Rob just to help you with the timeline, right? Because you did see corn was kicking around as a futures layout between $3.8 a bushel, 4.15, 4.2 a bushel up until about And we were largely complete with contracting and it followed our hedging practices as we mentioned previously. As you see the corn futures move up to what we're seeing the layout today with the first half of 'twenty one futures higher and the back half of 'twenty one futures lower, the co product values have also moved. The co product values that offset.

So we're seeing some balance. So we're just going to watch the market and we'll talk about the layout of the corn as we move through the spring planting and expectations for what the summer harvest looks like. But we're watching, we've got our hedges placed, we're looking at the co product values relative to the elevated cost of gross corn. And so that's what we'll watch as we go through the year.

Speaker 2

And I think it's fair to say, Jim, that the comments that you made earlier and the comments that you're making now relate to where corn sits today. So obviously, we're going to just continue to watch it. Hopefully there's nothing that extraordinary show manifests itself with planting and all of that.

Speaker 6

Okay. And a quick follow-up. In terms of the net corn cost layout last year, was the toughest comparison already past you by the time 2020 started? Like I remember fourth quarter was really pretty hard. But did were the byproducts improving in 2020?

How does what are your easiest comps in 'twenty as these quarters move ahead? Or are there easy Well,

Speaker 3

I think the in Q1 of last year we started to see some co product values increase, particularly corn oil. And then in Q2 and Q3, you saw, I think, easier comps from a lower cost of corn. That's really in Q4, where you see gross corn, right? Now in Q4, see your in 2020, you saw your gross cost of corn starting to spike up.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. So

Speaker 7

I want to just maybe clarify a little bit on the guidance. So on the full year, the point on sales to be modestly up. If I'm looking back to 2020, volumes were down four. And and so especially with the second quarter when you were down 13%, I mean, you're gonna be lapping that. So the modestly up on a global basis with really easy volume comparisons where some just important customers and were offline that I presume you're not expecting to repeat.

I'm just trying to make sure I'm thinking about, like, why is volume I mean, volumes, why are they only modestly up

Speaker 4

against that? And I presume also that there should be some price mix tailwinds given some of the

Speaker 7

corn pass through that would happen, both in your tolling contracts in North America, but also outside The US. So maybe just I'm trying

Speaker 4

to parse that a little bit first.

Speaker 2

Yes. I would point to quarter one for us was a strong quarter. For the most part, Asia Pacific obviously was beginning the pandemic at that point. But quarter one for us was a strong quarter.

Speaker 7

So Jim, can I just ask there? I mean, your volumes at a corporate level were flat in the

Speaker 3

first quarter of twenty twenty, just so

Speaker 4

I'm clear on the comparison.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I understand that.

Speaker 3

It's a mixture. I think it's

Speaker 2

a mixture from a standpoint of the various regions and how that all worked out. But what I think we're saying is we're taking an outlook that reflects continued uncertainty and lack of visibility when you consider the fact that we're still in lockdown and or partial lockdown in many places around the world. And so we, in what we factored into our guidance, have indicated that that will continue through the first half of this year and then start to ease in the second half of the year. And so that's what we've taken into effect as it relates to our sales guidance.

Speaker 3

That's the biggest variable, know, Adam, which is that when you look around, not just what we're understanding in The United States, you know, how vaccine rollouts in Europe, but also in South America, as well as Asia Pacific, which seems to be much more kind of government controlled based upon a flare up with the pandemic and more restrictive movement. What we're looking at is how can we see the return of the volume demand from some of the categories that really move? So your HF and your beverages, some of our brewing inputs, some of the sweetener volumes that go into either bakery or confectionery. Demand from our customers is tied to greater consumer mobility, shopping in informal channels, going to pubs and restaurants. So just look, there's a pace to that recovery, and that's what we're taking into

Speaker 2

And the other consideration is that the amount of stimulus that went into certain countries, certain regions, we don't believe will be injected at the same degree. Brazil is an example of that. So Brazil is sitting on very high deficits, of course, like most countries. But they infused a tremendous amount of stimulus, which helped with volumes in quarters three and four. That expired in December 31, And the economic minister has come out with some cautionary tones in regards to what they can do going forward.

So those kind of things were all taken into consideration as we put together our Despite

Speaker 3

those things, Adam, I mean, we're still saying that we're looking at net sales to be up modestly.

Speaker 7

Yeah. Okay. And then in the operating income up modestly against that sales outlook, You've talked about targeting $63.60 63,000,000 of incremental run rate savings from from from Cost Smart. I believe that's a gross kind of number just from a productivity perspective. What's the net kind of cost savings that that we should be thinking about in the in the 2021 bridge,

Speaker 6

as it relates to Cost margin?

Speaker 4

And that's a run rate, so it might be year end. So I'm just trying to think about what actually hits the P and L in 'twenty one.

Speaker 3

Yes. So obviously, we have savings that are coming out of from initiatives that we ended the year in 2020. And so some of that will be a benefit to 2021 as we enable and take actions in 2021. As we get to the end of 2021 with our targeted $170,000,000 of cumulative run rate savings, we'll see a difference in that benefit that you highlighted spread between 'twenty one and 'twenty two. That's how I'd characterize that.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then, yeah, I just wanna clarify one of the million.

Speaker 3

That 60,000,000 is spread. There's benefit in 2021 from from in year savings, and there's also beef and carryover into 2022 from that.

Speaker 7

And then I just wanna clarify kind of some of the earlier points on corn. So from a hedging perspective, trying to say that I mean, you especially in North America, you're hedged on corn for the year. And so if corn stays at these levels at 2122, I should say, is when we have to think about the pricing actions to offset cost inflation. I'm just trying to make sure I'm understanding those comments properly.

Speaker 3

Yep. So I think any modest exposure we may have in our U. S. Flat price or fixed contract business in the second half due to the continued recent run up in corn costs, we think will be mitigated by concurrent increase in the co product values, along with the anticipated kind of volume recovery that we referenced earlier. We intend, as well as if there's any kind of net exposure there, we're looking at both manufacturing productivity as well as op expense to be able to mitigate that.

Speaker 4

Okay. I really appreciate all

Speaker 7

that color. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Speaker 4

You got it, Adam. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Donald MacLeod with Berenberg. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Hey, Donald.

Speaker 4

So, I was hoping that you could, maybe give your thoughts on last week's announcement of a a product development partnership between one of the major global food and beverage companies and then an emerging packaged food name. I guess within that, just first, are these types of arrangements novel? And then second, would you consider it as complementary or maybe in competition with the the value that Ingredion adds from in the product development cycle from the food systems business?

Speaker 2

Are you, referring to the joint collaboration, joint venture between PepsiCo and Beyond Meat?

Speaker 4

Correct, yep.

Speaker 2

So, what I would say is that just provides, I think, us, opportunity. Because we have offerings from an ingredient standpoint, food systems formulating standpoint, that would appeal to both of those companies in their quest to formulate a range of plant based snacks. Jim Gray was pointing out to me when we were discussing this because he joined us from PepsiCo and reminded me of their meat based snacks, which everybody knows those high protein meat snacks are growing. So an alternative meatless, plant based version of that is a great concept, and I'm sure those two companies will be working on that. And we hope to be certainly working with them and other companies as we formulate our approach towards food systems, leveraging again plant based proteins and a whole range of other specialty portfolio ingredients that we have.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Donald, I think you're touching on something which is a confluence of what generations or younger generations might want to eat. So is what they're eating and the choices they're making both sustainable but also delivering the nutrition makeup? So is it more protein, less carbohydrate, or a balance, right? But then also is it combined with is it snackable, is it on the go, is it convenient? And I think there's not just PepsiCo, but other customers of ours have really looked at this space and think that it's not just about a tasty carbohydrate and a fat and or oil, but can we change the nutrition makeup.

And so we've been talking to that, as as Jim referenced, is that when you start to change the underlying ingredient components, that's when you really engage ingredient to help with not just maintaining the texture, but the taste, and then also delivering the nutritional value.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and we also feel that, one of the things we've learned from the many years of formulating with specialty starch is that you need a portfolio of ingredients. And that's why having a range of pulse based flours, concentrates, and isolates, that all increasing in protein along that continuum, and having the formulating capabilities gives us the most optionality to help customers from a food system standpoint for these different snacks, and alternative meat type products that they'll be developing.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks. That's really helpful, guys. I'll turn it over from there.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question is a follow-up from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi. Thanks. Just a quick follow-up. Do you have an estimate for what the incremental benefit in 2021 will be from PureCircle compared to 2020? And also Verdient, like will Verdient contribute positive profit maybe PureCircle gets back to flat or something like that?

Speaker 3

Jim, go ahead. Jim, sure. Rob, as we think about the five months of the impact that PureCircle had within the 2020 financials, We noted today that it was an $11,000,000 operating loss. As we look forward to 2021, we see a loss that's less than that for the full year. Working because as we've noted, the $14,000,000 of cost synergies that we've actioned, those will start to reduce the overall OpEx.

And so we'll see PureCircle at a run rate of a loss in Q1 of still kind of two ish to three ish. And then we're going to be working that down as we get more to Q4. And all of the cost synergies savings or impact are affected on the business.

Speaker 6

Okay. And Verdient?

Speaker 3

So Verdient right now, we're working on that integration. I think what we'll kind of come back to is talk about more of a plant based protein overall platform, and we'll shed some more light on that as we get into CAGNY.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 5

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 0

Thank you. And this concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jim Valley for closing remarks.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us today. We look forward to continuing our discussion later this month virtually at CAGNY. And in the meantime, to everyone, please stay safe, vigilant, and look forward to talking to you at CAGNY.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.