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    INTUIT (INTU)

    INTU Q3 2025: TurboTax Live Revenues Up 47%, Margins Rise 100bps

    Reported on May 23, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$666.07Last close (May 22, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$720.00Open (May 23, 2025)
    Price Change
    $53.93(+8.10%)
    • Assisted Tax Breakthrough: Exceptional performance in the assisted tax segment—including 47% growth in TurboTax Live revenue and outsized conversion improvements—validates Intuit’s disruptive strategy and sets the stage for continued market share gains.
    • AI-Driven Efficiency and Margin Expansion: The rollout of AI agents (across customer, payments, project management, and accounting) is enhancing customer experiences, driving operational efficiencies, and supporting higher pricing power, which will likely accelerate margin expansion.
    • Mid-Market Expansion and Recapturing Customers: Strong progress in the mid-market segment—evidenced by boomerang customers returning to Intuit Enterprise Suite and deepening partnerships with accounting firms—demonstrates a robust avenue for future revenue growth.
    • Customer experience friction in the assisted tax segment: Management highlighted that despite improvements, customer friction remains—particularly when assisted customers encounter cumbersome authentication processes (e.g., on landing pages for local offices) that could hamper conversion and sustainable growth.
    • Early-stage challenges in mid-market go-to-market execution: Executives acknowledged that the go-to-market process for Intuit Enterprise Suite is still in its early days and not yet a finely tuned machine, creating potential execution risks as they scale this segment.
    • Uncertainties around new AI agent offerings and pricing model transitions: While new AI agents are expected to drive efficiencies and enhance value, their integration and the accompanying pricing adjustments are still evolving, posing potential risks if customer adoption or product integration issues arise.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue Q3 2025

    +15%

    Total revenue increased to $7,754 million in Q3 2025 driven by robust growth across key segments—largely from improved Online Ecosystem performance in Global Business Solutions and solid gains in Credit Karma—supported by improvements seen in previous quarters.

    Small Business & Self‑Employed (Global Business Solutions) Q3 2025

    +19%

    Revenue climbed to $2,849 million, reflecting the continuation of the strong push in Online Ecosystem revenue (including QuickBooks Online offerings) that began in Q2 2024 and was further reinforced by the rebranding and strategic expansion in Global Business Solutions.

    Consumer Segment Q3 2025

    +10.8%

    Consumer segment revenue reached $4,048 million, up 10.8% YoY, which builds on earlier moderate gains and underscores improved customer experience and higher engagement during the tax season, compared to the modest 3% growth in Q2 2025.

    Credit Karma Revenue Q3 2025

    +19%

    Revenue rose to $579 million as Credit Karma benefited from steady performance in its core verticals such as credit cards, even though previous quarters (like Q2 2025) documented even higher growth rates, indicating consistent gains amidst evolving macroeconomic conditions.

    Operating Income Q3 2025

    +20%

    Operating income increased to $3,720 million, driven by revenue gains that outpaced the moderate expense increases, demonstrating the company’s ability to control costs and benefit from its strategic initiatives—a trend in line with prior quarter improvements.

    Net Income Q3 2025

    +18%

    Net income grew to $2,820 million thanks to a combination of higher operating income and a balanced impact from tax expense adjustments, reflecting the compounded benefits of revenue growth seen in earlier periods along with controlled cost escalation.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Total Revenue Growth

    FY 2025

    12% to 13%

    15%

    raised

    GAAP Operating Income Growth

    FY 2025

    28% to 30%

    35%

    raised

    Non-GAAP Operating Income Growth

    FY 2025

    13% to 14%

    18%

    raised

    GAAP Diluted EPS Growth

    FY 2025

    18% to 20%

    26% to 27%

    raised

    Non-GAAP Diluted EPS Growth

    FY 2025

    13% to 14%

    18% to 19%

    raised

    Total Company Revenue Growth

    Q4 2025

    no prior guidance

    17% to 18%

    no prior guidance

    GAAP EPS

    Q4 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.84 to $0.89

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP EPS

    Q4 2025

    no prior guidance

    $2.63 to $2.68

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Total Company Revenue Growth
    Q3 2025
    12% to 13%
    15.1% (calculated from 6,737In Q3 2024 to 7,754In Q3 2025)
    Beat
    GAAP EPS
    Q3 2025
    $9.22 to $9.28
    $10.02
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Assisted Tax Segment & TurboTax Live

    Q2 discussions centered on an AI‐driven expert platform that streamlined the assisted tax process—with breakthroughs such as expert matching and faster tax completion —while Q4 highlighted steady growth (e.g., 17% revenue growth, doubling full-service customers) and strategic positioning.

    Q3 featured breakthrough performance with TurboTax Live revenue surging by 47% and customer growth increasing by 24%. It also addressed customer friction (authentication issues) and emphasized enhanced integration of AI and expert services.

    Significant acceleration and breakthrough adoption are evident in Q3 relative to previous periods. The topic remains a prime growth driver with enhanced customer experience and increasing revenue momentum.

    AI-Driven Innovation & Efficiency

    In Q2, emphasis was placed on Intuit Assist and its role in automating workflows, leading to substantial cost savings and productivity gains, while Q4 stressed the integration of proprietary platforms like GenOS and the deployment of AI across Credit Karma, TurboTax, and business platforms.

    Q3 highlighted the launch of multiple AI agents (customer, payment, project management, accounting) that streamline processes and boost productivity, while also acknowledging uncertainty amid economic challenges.

    There is a continued and evolving focus on AI integration, shifting from cost and workflow automation to broader operational integration and margin expansion. The sentiment remains positive, with incremental improvements in efficiency across the company.

    Mid-Market Expansion & Intuit Enterprise Suite Growth

    Q2 discussions presented the mid‐market as a $100 billion TAM, detailing strong traction, customer recapture, and strategic focus with concrete wins in displacing competitive solutions. Q4 emphasized a “Big Bet” with unified platform initiatives targeting more complex needs, despite noted execution challenges.

    In Q3, the focus remains on expanding mid-market coverage—with continued efforts to recapture customers and secure partnerships with accounting firms—while candidly acknowledging ongoing execution challenges in scaling the offerings.

    The theme demonstrates steady momentum. Consistent focus across periods shows that while strategic execution challenges remain, the commitment to mid-market expansion and customer recapture is unwavering and seen as a critical growth lever for the future.

    Online Services and QuickBooks Online (QBO) Revenue Dynamics

    Q2 highlighted robust online services growth (30% excluding Mailchimp) driven by the “money” category and mid-market contributions, while Q4 provided detailed multiples for QBO growth and also noted deceleration in certain segments (e.g., self‐employed) due to lapping effects.

    Q3 reported robust growth with online ecosystem revenue at 20% and QBO accounting revenue growing by 21%, fueled by higher effective prices and accelerated payment volumes.

    Positive growth acceleration is evident. While previous periods noted deceleration concerns and mixed performance in sub-segments, Q3’s emphasis on robust growth and acceleration in payment volumes indicates improved momentum in online services.

    Consumer Group Performance

    Q2 discussions reflected a modest start (3% growth) and optimism driven by tax season potential, while Q4 adopted a more cautious revenue guidance (6%-10%) despite strong tax season numbers, with adjustments rooted in macro conditions and customer mix effects.

    Q3 revealed strong tax season figures—11% revenue growth and a standout performance in TurboTax Live (47% revenue growth)—while maintaining conservative overall revenue guidance to account for challenges like shifting customer profiles.

    Sustained tax season optimism continues, but there is a persistent cautiousness in revenue guidance. The positive breakthroughs in TurboTax Live are tempered by concerns over customer mix, leading to a nuanced, mixed sentiment for the Consumer Group’s future.

    Operational Restructuring and Workforce Reductions

    Q4 explicitly discussed restructuring actions (an 8% workforce impact with a $223 million charge and office consolidations) aimed at repositioning resources for future growth, whereas Q2 focused on hiring trends and efficiency gains without mention of reductions.

    Q3 did not mention any operational restructuring or workforce reductions; instead, the focus was on productivity gains achieved through AI and automation.

    The topic has faded from focus in Q3, suggesting that previous restructuring actions have either been concluded or shifted into longer‐term strategic adjustments. The absence of new restructuring commentary indicates a possible stabilization in the workforce strategy.

    Regulatory and External Risks

    Q2 included discussions of engagement with the administration regarding IRS initiatives, where leadership reassured there were no anticipated risks to TurboTax, while Q4 did not feature this topic.

    Q3 did not mention regulatory or external risks at all [—].

    The topic appears to have disappeared from current discussions in Q3, implying that either the risks have been mitigated or they are no longer top of mind compared to other strategic priorities.

    Mailchimp Revenue Growth Deceleration

    Q2 highlighted deceleration in Mailchimp revenue due to lapping previous price changes, and Q4 expanded on this by noting the impact of previous pricing benefits and lineup changes.

    In Q3, Mailchimp revenue was characterized as relatively flat with the deceleration noted but given less emphasis—earning only minimal mentions compared to its previous prominence.

    Deceleration remains present but is now less emphasized. The reduced focus in Q3 suggests that while the challenge persists, it is no longer viewed as a top-tier concern relative to more dynamic growth areas.

    1. Assisted Growth
      Q: Sustainable double-digit assisted growth?
      A: Management highlighted a breakthrough in assisted tax with 47% TurboTax Live revenue growth and accelerated customer adoption, signaling sustainable double-digit performance.

    2. Live Durability
      Q: Can TurboTax Live sustain next year's growth?
      A: They expect to maintain a 15–20% growth range next year, supported by streamlined processes and enhanced customer experience.

    3. AI Efficiency
      Q: How will AI agents impact operations?
      A: New AI agents will automate workflows and enable a dual pricing model, improving operational efficiency and reducing headcount growth.

    4. Pricing Resilience
      Q: What is Intuit's pricing power?
      A: With over 90% recurring revenue and integrated services, Intuit’s platform delivers robust pricing resilience and margin strength even in challenging environments.

    5. EPS & Margin
      Q: How are margins and EPS growing?
      A: Operational efficiencies and productivity gains boosted margins by 100bps, driving stronger EPS growth through disciplined expense management.

    6. Local Strategy
      Q: What about local sign-in friction?
      A: Management acknowledged initial authentication hurdles in local TurboTax services and is working to streamline the user journey for improved conversion.

    7. GBSG Revenue
      Q: Outlook on GBSG revenue growth?
      A: They expect Global Business Solutions Group revenue to hit around 16% growth, driven by effective pricing and scalable online solutions.

    8. IES Channel
      Q: How is IES go-to-market progressing?
      A: Efforts are evolving with a focus on multi-entity customers and stronger accounting partnerships to capture mid-market growth.

    9. Mid-Market Retention
      Q: Are customers returning to Intuit?
      A: Instances like an 18-entity title company illustrate how customers are boomeranging back to IES for a more seamless, integrated experience.

    10. Credit Karma
      Q: Why is Credit Karma growing fast?
      A: Credit Karma’s 31% revenue growth is driven by AI-enhanced offers and higher partner spend, reflecting its robust market performance.

    11. Marketing Spend
      Q: How effective was marketing spend?
      A: Adjusted campaign timing and optimized spend in the consumer segment delivered better ROI by targeting early tax decision-makers.

    12. TurboTax Breakthroughs
      Q: What drove TurboTax breakthroughs?
      A: A blend of improved conversion, higher expert productivity, and Credit Karma integrations collectively drove breakthrough assisted tax performance.

    Research analysts covering INTUIT.