INTU Q4 2025: 23% Mid-Market Growth Fuels AI Platform Momentum
- Strong Mid-Market Momentum: The Q&A highlighted 23% growth in mid-market customers with substantial engagement, driven by the new all-in-one platform and AI-enabled solutions, suggesting a robust pathway to expanding market share and future revenues.
- Compelling AI-Driven Productivity Gains: Management emphasized the positive impact of AI integrations—such as an invoice reminder that boosted payments volume by 10% and accelerated cash flow—which reinforces the value of AI adoption in enhancing customer productivity and monetization potential.
- Resilient Consumer Platform Performance: The discussion underscored the strong performance of critical consumer segments—TurboTax Live and Credit Karma—with data and AI investments driving improved customer engagement and share gains, supporting a bullish view on sustained double-digit revenue growth.
- Mailchimp performance risk: Mailchimp has been described as a drag on growth, and its slow turnaround—with a multi-quarter lag before improvements show in revenue—could continue to negatively impact overall results.
- Uncertain monetization of new AI initiatives: While the new virtual team of AI agents has seen strong engagement, no specific monetization assumptions were included in current guidance, leaving uncertainty around their revenue contribution.
- Credit Karma cyclicality concerns: Despite outperformance in recent quarters, Credit Karma's underlying business remains potentially more cyclical, with past reliance on volatile segments like personal loans posing risks to sustained performance.
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenue Growth (annual) | FY 2025 | 12% to 13% | 15% | raised |
GAAP Operating Income Growth (annual) | FY 2025 | 28% to 30% | 35% | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Income Growth (annual) | FY 2025 | 13% to 14% | 18% | raised |
GAAP Diluted EPS Growth (annual) | FY 2025 | 18% to 20% | 26% to 27% | raised |
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS Growth (annual) | FY 2025 | 13% to 14% | 18% to 19% | raised |
Total Company Revenue Growth (quarterly) | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | 17% to 18% | no prior guidance |
GAAP EPS (quarterly) | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | $0.84 to $0.89 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP EPS (quarterly) | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | $2.63 to $2.68 | no prior guidance |
Total Company Revenue (annual) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | $20,997,000,000 to $21,186,000,000 (growth 12%–13%) | no prior guidance |
Global Business Solutions Group Revenue Growth (annual) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | 14% to 15% (15.5%–16.5% excluding Mailchimp) | no prior guidance |
Overall Consumer Group Revenue Growth (annual) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | 8% to 9% | no prior guidance |
GAAP Diluted EPS (annual) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | $15.49 to $15.69 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS (annual) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | $22.98 to $23.18 | no prior guidance |
GAAP Tax Rate (annual) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | approximately 23% | no prior guidance |
Total Company Revenue Growth (quarterly) (Q1 2026) | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | 14% to 15% | no prior guidance |
GAAP EPS (quarterly) (Q1 2026) | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | $1.19 to $1.26 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP EPS (quarterly) (Q1 2026) | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | $3.05 to $3.12 | no prior guidance |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Mid-Market Expansion | Q3 calls described targeting mid-market customers with defined TAM of $89 billion and highlighted product innovations and leadership change. Q2 calls emphasized a large TAM (up to $100 billion) and strong traction with QBO Advanced and IES. | Q4 calls focus on mid-market expansion with refined product offerings (QBO Advanced, Intuit Enterprise Suite), new AI-driven product innovations, strong customer growth (23% increase, 40% contribution to online ecosystem revenue) and strategic partnerships. | Positive momentum with increased product innovation and strategic partnerships leading to stronger customer growth. |
Go-to-Market Execution Challenges | Q3 calls referred to early stages of execution, reliance on accounting partnerships and leadership reorganization as measures to drive growth. Q2 calls discussed challenges in scaling Mailchimp and aligning product and go-to-market teams for mid-market. | Q4 calls still note challenges — especially with Mailchimp, international headwinds, and pricing actions — though efforts via scaling salesforce and product improvements remain underway. | Persistent challenges that are gradually being addressed; headwinds (particularly from Mailchimp) continue to be an area of focus. |
AI-Driven Initiatives | Q3 mentioned productivity gains such as 12% faster tax processing and up to 40% faster coding, along with some nuances about pricing and monetization. Q2 highlighted significant productivity gains with nearly $90 million efficiencies and improved TurboTax and code productivity sans monetization concerns. | Q4 emphasizes robust productivity gains from AI (e.g., 60% reduction in manual work, 10% payment volume improvements, millions of customer engagements) while acknowledging uncertainty regarding immediate monetization. | Consistent emphasis on productivity gains; however, a more cautious tone on monetization is emerging in Q4. |
Assisted Tax and Consumer Platform Performance | Q3 highlighted exceptional growth in TurboTax Live (47% revenue growth) and integration with Credit Karma with some identified customer friction, while Q2 noted strong traction in assisted tax and seamless AI-driven personalization, with high conversion rates and integration benefits. | Q4 details continued strong performance in assisted tax with TurboTax Live achieving breakthrough adoption (47% revenue growth) and improved integration with Credit Karma boosting consumer platform revenue, despite ongoing customer friction challenges. | Steady strong performance with further integration between platforms, though some friction persists; overall bullish outlook. |
Mailchimp Performance Risk | Q2 discussions mentioned early progress improving Mailchimp through product updates and price adjustments. Q3 calls noted revenue flatness and acknowledged Mailchimp as a headwind in fiscal guidance. | Q4 calls acknowledge that Mailchimp has been a drag on growth, but improvements via an expanded sales playbook and product enhancements are expected to lead to double-digit growth by the end of fiscal 2026, despite a lag in subscription revenue improvement. | A persistent challenge with negative sentiment; however, planned sales and product improvements aim for future turnaround. |
Credit Karma Cyclicality Concerns | Q2 discussions detailed a mix of macro contributions and execution improvements driving a 36% growth, while Q3 emphasized AI integration and innovations that improved ARPC and reduced cyclicality concerns. | Q4 calls highlight that Credit Karma’s cyclicality risk is being mitigated by strategic initiatives, market share gains in less cyclical products (credit cards, personal loans, insurance) and integration with the broader consumer platform. | Improved sentiment over time as integration and targeted initiatives reduce cyclicality concerns. |
Reduced Emphasis on IRS Initiative Impact on TurboTax | Q2 calls provided reassurance about IRS initiatives, emphasizing ongoing engagement with the administration and no expected risk to TurboTax. | No discussion on IRS initiatives was mentioned in Q3 or Q4 [N/A]. | The topic has dropped from recent discussions, indicating a diminished focus or lower priority. |
Diminished Focus on Online Services Revenue Growth | Q2 highlighted strong online services revenue growth (19% overall, 30% excluding Mailchimp) as being driven by payments, capital, bill pay and payroll. Q3 reiterated robust performance with 18% growth (or 29% excluding Mailchimp) driven by similar factors. | Q4 guidance indicates a slowdown in pricing outside of the accounting platform, with online services revenue growth expected to decelerate compared to earlier periods. | A shift from strong growth to a more cautious outlook, with indications of decelerating revenue pace. |
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Monetization & Mailchimp
Q: Can AI agents monetize and fix Mailchimp's drag?
A: Management noted that while the new AI agent platform is already exhibiting strong engagement, its monetization isn’t included in current guidance, and Mailchimp is expected to rebound to double-digit growth as product improvements and an enhanced sales playbook take effect. -
Global Solutions
Q: What drives ex-Mailchimp Global Solutions performance?
A: They cited acceleration in both accounting and services—propelled by mid-market customer growth and a re-pricing approach—which although slightly tempered by lower pricing outside desktop, remains durable heading into fiscal 2026. -
Mailchimp Turnaround
Q: When will Mailchimp return to growth?
A: Management expressed confidence that with a renewed focus on small and mid-market segments and improved customer satisfaction, Mailchimp, a subscription business, is poised to exit with double-digit growth after a lag of about six months. -
Credit Karma Outlook
Q: How is Credit Karma’s cyclicality being addressed?
A: They’re shifting focus to prime customers with better data and AI-supported engagement, reducing reliance on cyclical personal loans and driving consistent market share gains across year‐round consumer platforms. -
QuickBooks & AI Search
Q: How will AI search affect QuickBooks marketing?
A: Intuit is leveraging its multi-channel strategy where AI search—currently only 1% of total traffic—will grow in prominence, bolstered by strong brand visibility and an efficient, non-reliant approach on traditional paid channels. -
Invoice Generator Impact
Q: How effective is the invoice reminder feature?
A: The invoice reminder has proven effective, with users experiencing 10% higher payment volumes and receiving payments 5 days earlier, underscoring its positive impact on customer cash flow. -
Small Business & SEO
Q: How are SMB growth and SEO challenges faring?
A: Despite concerns over SEO search slowdown, robust growth—8% in US QBO and 23% in mid-market customers—suggests that diversified channels and strong customer engagement mitigate potential headwinds. -
IES Strategy
Q: What is the IES and mid-market strategy?
A: The plan involves mining the existing customer base, forging deeper accountant partnerships, and leveraging quarterly product releases to expand penetration in the mid-market TAM. -
Customer AI Readiness
Q: Are customers ready for AI agents?
A: Management emphasized that while customers don’t care about the AI label itself, they appreciate improved decision-making and workflow automation that drive quicker payments and better business insights. -
SMB Macro Trends
Q: What macro trends are seen among SMBs?
A: Overall, while consumer spending is more cautious, SMB cash flows and net profits are improving, reflecting a balanced macro picture with increased efficiency despite mixed revenue signals. -
Platform Consolidation
Q: How does consolidation boost upsell opportunities?
A: Bringing multiple apps into one unified platform enables a push–pull effect that drives efficiency, customer retention, and a compelling 300% ROI over three years through consolidated data and reduced tech spend.
Research analysts covering Intuit Inc.