ITT - Earnings Call - Q4 2024
February 6, 2025
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue $929.0M (+12% YoY; +5.9% organic) with adjusted operating margin 17.5% (+50 bps YoY), delivering adjusted EPS $1.50 (+12% YoY); reported EPS $1.55 (+38% YoY) benefited from lower restructuring and favorable tax items.
- Segment mix strong: IP +25% reported (+10% organic) to $362.6M with 21.2% margin; CCT +37% (+9% organic) to $241.0M with 16.6% margin (ex-kSARIA dilution margins would be ~60 bps higher); MT down 11% on Wolverine divestiture but margin expanded to 19.3%.
- 2025 guidance initiated: revenue +2–4% (+3–5% organic), operating margin 18.0–18.9% (adjusted 18.1–19.0%), EPS $6.05–$6.45 (adjusted $6.10–$6.50), FCF $450–$500M (12–13% margin); quarterly dividend raised 10% to $0.351.
- Cash execution accelerating: Q4 operating cash flow $223.2M (+31% YoY; 24% margin) and FCF $186.8M (+42% YoY; 20% margin), supported by working capital improvements.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Strong IP and CCT growth with healthy pricing and productivity; legacy IP margin expanded 340 bps YoY despite acquisition dilution; management emphasized durable backlog conversion and double-digit accretion from recent M&A in 2025.
- Cash generation surged: Q4 FCF margin 20% with inventory/collections improvement; full-year FCF $438.7M (+2%) despite higher interest and M&A amortization.
- Strategic repositioning: divested Wolverine, acquired Svanehøj and kSARIA; CEO: “We grew, we executed and we transformed…shifting our portfolio to higher growth and higher-margin businesses”.
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What Went Wrong
- Headwinds from divestiture and interest: Wolverine sale reduced revenue/EPS (~$0.06 in Q1 2025) and higher interest from acquisition debt offset some operating gains.
- Temporary intangible amortization (~$0.16–$0.17 in 2025) limits near-term EPS flow-through; benefits phase out by Q2 (Svanehøj) and Q4 (kSARIA).
- Aerospace still soft near-term: Boeing contributes ~$10M revenue per quarter; 2025 aerospace revenue expected down low single digits; tariff risk not included in 2025 guide (mitigation plans underway).
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to ITT's 2024 fourth quarter conference call. Today is Thursday, February 6th, 2025. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning at 12:00 P.M. Eastern Time. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star 11 on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 11 again. We ask that you please pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mark Macaluso, Vice President, Investor Relations and Global Communications. You may begin.
Mark Macaluso (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Gigi, and good morning. Joining me in Stamford today are Luca Savi, ITT's Chief Executive Officer and President, and Emmanuel Caprais, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will cover ITT's financial results for the three and 12-month period ended December 31st, 2024, which we announced this morning. Please refer to slide two of the presentation available on our website, where we note that today's comments will include forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations. Actual results may differ materially due to several risks and uncertainties, including those described in our 2023 annual report on Form 10-K and other recent SEC filings. Except for otherwise noted, the fourth quarter and full year results we present this morning will be compared to the fourth quarter and full year 2023 and include certain non-GAAP financial measures.
The reconciliation of such measures to most comparable GAAP figures are detailed in our press release and in the appendix of our presentation, both of which are available on our website. With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Luca, who will begin on slide three.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thank you, Mark, and good morning. First and foremost, I would like to sincerely thank our ITTers for their commitment day in and day out to deliver for our customers, no matter the challenge. 2024 was a pivotal year for ITT. We grew, outperforming most of our end markets. We executed, delivering significant margin expansion, and we are transforming our portfolio with the divestiture of Wolverine and the acquisitions of Svanehøj and kSARIA. Let me get into 2024 financial highlights. We grew orders 10% or 5% organic, resulting in an ending backlog of $1.6 billion, up 34% year over year. We grew revenue 11% or 7% organic, with a strong performance in all businesses, including also our kSARIA and Svanehøj acquisitions. We expanded margin by 80 basis points to almost 18%.
We generated nearly $440 million of free cash flow and delivered 12% EPS growth after over 17% growth in 2023. We did all of this while absorbing the loss of earnings from the divestiture of Wolverine and higher interest expense stemming from the acquisitions of Svanehøj and kSARIA. As you can see, a truly remarkable year. The fourth quarter was equally strong. 12% revenue growth or 6% organic, driven by pump projects and short cycle and connectors. Operating margin reached 17.5%, with MT surpassing 19% and IP eclipsing 21%. EPS of $1.50 grew 12%, and we finished with a strong cash performance to cap off 2024. On 2024, let me share some highlights. On revenue, all our businesses delivered outstanding growth. Connect and Control Technologies grew 9% organic, driven by continued growth in defense, industrial connectors, and also aerospace.
IP grew 8% organic, powered by growth in all short cycle categories and high single-digit growth in pump projects. Motion Technologies grew 5% organic, with Friction outperforming global automotive production by 730 basis points, while KONI Rail grew 20%. On profitability, strong volumes coupled with favorable price-cost actions drove 16% operating income growth, which is all the more impressive considering that we overcame the loss of approximately $15 million of income from the Wolverine divestiture. EBITDA margin finished at almost 19%, and IP nearly reached 21%. With this performance, we surpassed our long-term margin targets two years ahead of plan. As you can see, our above-market organic growth and margin expansion is creating shareholder value, and it is here to stay, and now we're compounding this with impactful M&A.
In 2024, we deployed $865 million to the acquisition of Cryogenic Pump Manufacturer Svanehøj and Defense Interconnect Specialist kSARIA, and our strategy is starting to bear fruit. Svanehøj orders grew 26% for the full year, and kSARIA is already contributing meaningfully after just three months. These acquisitions were possible thanks to nearly $440 million of free cash flow, and importantly, our M&A pipeline remains active. On top of this, we returned more than $200 million to shareholders. I am humbled by our team's efforts to drive these results, as Friction outperformed in every region and in each powertrain. As an example, in the internal combustion engine segment, we grew 1% in a market that was down 10%. Our connector team in Nogales operated for more than five years with a perfect safety record and achieved record growth and record profitability in 2024.
And in Saudi, Khalid and team continued to drive near-perfect on-time performance with unmatched service to our customers. To sum it all up, we grew, we executed, and we transformed, shifting our portfolio. With this performance in mind, let's turn to slide four to discuss the differentiation that will continue to feed ITT's results. Our differentiation in Saudi Arabia has driven recurring wins in the region. For example, IP secured more than $30 million of orders on the Riyas project, part of a $12 billion investment to build a natural gas processing facility in Jubail. And in 2025, we secured additional awards on this very project. This win builds on earlier awards in the region, such as the Amiral project we previously talked about. Because of all of these growth, we continue investing in the region and expanding our manufacturing capabilities.
Last November, I was very fortunate to be there, walk the grounds, and listen to Khalid and be energized by the local team sharing their vision for the new site expansion. On Friction, the outperformance continues. Our global market share surpassed 30% in 2024 for the very first time. Friction is again poised to outperform thanks to another near-record number of platform awards secured in 2024 on internal combustion engines, hybrids, and electric vehicles alike. KONI Rail took considerable market share with over 35% orders growth and high-teens revenue growth, an incredible outperformance for the second straight year. We expect this growth to continue with our recent validation on a new high-speed train platform capable of traveling 450 kilometers per hour. On defense, the rapid prototyping capabilities of our connectors business provide faster lead times to develop customized products for our defense customers.
This drove awards on the Columbia Class Submarine, the Joint Strike Fighter, a Radar Surveyor system, and qualification on the Nett Warrior program. Moving to differentiation through innovation, let's discuss the Embedded Motor Drive, truly a game changer. Today, $300 billion are spent annually on moving industrial fluids globally, and 80% of the pumps and motors operate inefficiently, wasting energy. The EMD solved this problem and is the only industrial smart motor of this kind today. With this technology, our customers will be able to swap their existing motor with ITT's EMD and immediately see a cost reduction as their rotating equipment will consume less energy and produce less CO2. The EMD significantly expands IP's growth profile and addressable market. Dan and I can't wait to show it to you at our Capital Markets Day in May after we launch it commercially in Q2.
Now, let me turn the call over to Emmanuel to review our Q4 results, close the book on 2024, and discuss our outlook for 2025.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Thank you, Luca, and good morning. We ended 2024 with a strong performance across the board in orders, revenue, margin, EPS, and cash. Our teams delivered 6% organic revenue growth from higher volumes and price realization. IP grew 22% in pump projects and 7% in short cycle, while Svanehøj added 16 points to IP's total growth. Just to note for the year, IP projects grew 19% organically after 31% in 2023. CCT grew 9% thanks to strong defense and industrial connector deliveries, both of which were above 40% this quarter, while kSARIA contributed over 29 points to total growth, fully offsetting the Boeing work stoppage impact. In MT, KONI grew 12% on share gains and backlog conversion in Riyadh, while Friction OE outperformed global automotive production by 410 basis points.
On profitability, operating income grew 16%, more than double the organic sales growth rate, primarily driven by higher price, productivity, and volume, despite the loss of earnings from the Wolverine divestiture. MT margin exceeded 19%, with 220 basis points of margin expansion and a 120 basis points improvement sequentially to close out 2024. Notably, despite roughly $40 million less in revenue due to the Wolverine divestiture, MT was able to increase operating income. Once again, MT overdelivered. Moving to IP, the team drove 60 basis points of expansion to overcome 280 basis points of dilution from the Svanehøj acquisition. Legacy IP expanded margin 340 basis points, driven by higher volume leverage, more favorable price costs, and continued sourcing and supply chain productivity. Finally, in CCT, excluding temporary M&A dilution, CCT margin would be up 60 basis points, driven by higher pricing actions and volume.
The price renegotiations in aerospace continue, with more to come in 2025. With the volume growth and price realization this quarter, we drove double-digit earnings growth to $1.50 of EPS, overcoming roughly $0.07 of earnings loss from the Wolverine divestiture and $0.08 from higher interest expense related to M&A. Lastly, on free cash flow, our performance accelerated sequentially thanks to the efforts of our team to reduce inventory and drive stronger collections, as well as contributions from our acquisitions. This resulted in a 42% increase year over year and over 20% free cash flow for the quarter. Let's turn to the four-year EPS bridge on slide six. Here you can see the main drivers of our performance, which are similar to Q4.
Operational performance from volume growth, price cost, and productivity, compounded by accretion from our acquisitions, allowed us to overcome headwinds from temporary amortization, the Wolverine divestiture, and higher interest expense. Keep in mind that most of these impacts were not considered in our initial guidance for 2024. We also continued to fund strategic investments for future growth, including our geopolymer brake pad formulation, our high-performance brake pad business, and the embedded motor drive. We delivered a strong performance with 12% EPS growth that previews the value creation potential of ITT's portfolio. With this in our rearview mirror, let's now turn to page eight to discuss 2025. We entered 2025 with a robust backlog that is up 34% in total, fueled by our acquisitions and growth in legacy pumps and connectors.
The large pump awards from 2023 and 2024 should start shipping in a meaningful fashion in 2025, while Friction, Rail, and connectors should continue to outperform. We expect this will drive revenue to over $3.7 billion, with organic revenue growth of 3%-5%, and the strongest growth expected in IP and CCT. We expect that our ability to continually reduce costs while growing revenue will drive further margin expansion of 90 basis points to 18.6% at the midpoint. Contributions from our acquisitions are expected to increase considerably in 2025 to roughly $0.20. This will be driven by Svanehøj's growth on new fuel vessels due to a 26% order increase in 2024. On kSARIA, the team continues to execute our plans with several large new orders expected in the first half of 2025 that will support our growth outlook.
This results in EPS growth of 8% at the midpoint, even while absorbing an incremental $0.09 headwind from foreign currency given the stronger U.S. dollar. Furthermore, if you exclude the roughly $0.17 of temporary intangible amortization, which will end by the end of the year, EPS growth will be over 10%. Finally, on cash, we expect to generate free cash flow of roughly $475 million at the midpoint, amounting to a 12% to 13% free cash flow margin for the year. Let's turn to slide nine to discuss our outlook in each business. Beginning with Connect and Control Technologies, increased global spend on defense modernization platforms coupled with a gradual Boeing ramp beginning in Q2 should drive strong demand in CCT. We expect kSARIA to add roughly 15 points of growth to the total.
Industrial Process is expected to convert its record backlog of more than $900 million powered by large project awards, which should generate mid-single-digit organic growth. In Motion Technologies, we expect Friction to outperform global automotive production, driven by share gains in all regions, while growth in the aftermarket is expected to be in the low single-digit range. Longer term, Friction's high-performance business will be another catalyst for profitable growth. On rail, we expect mid to high single-digit growth on strength of share gains in Europe and China, continued public investment in mass transit in North America. Let's turn to slide 10 to review our EPS bridge for 2025. Once again, most of our earnings increase is expected to come from organic growth and margin expansion in our core business. This will drive 8% EPS growth for the year at the midpoint.
Importantly, we're absorbing $0.30 from the loss of earnings from the Wolverine divestiture, a higher effective tax rate, and unfavorable effects. I'd like to briefly discuss the phasing of our 2025 outlook. EPS is expected to be flat to slightly up in Q1. We anticipate a revenue decline in the low single-digit range, driven mostly by MT due to the reduction in global vehicle production, while IP and CCT should be roughly flat. Operating margin should expand 90 basis points to just shy of 18%. Excluding the loss of earnings from the Wolverine divestiture and higher interest, EPS would be up approximately 6% in Q1, more in line with our four-year outlook. And we expect growth to ramp throughout the rest of 2025. Before we wrap up, I wanted to share our thinking on tariffs. Our 2025 guidance does not include any anticipated impacts from tariffs.
We are working diligently with our teams and supply chain organization to evaluate different scenarios and are developing granular action plans. We're looking to mitigate any impact to commercial and operational action. Let me turn the call back to Luca to wrap up.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thanks, Emmanuel. Before moving to Q&A, let me summarize the key points from an outstanding year. We accomplished a lot in 2024. We grew. We executed. We transformed. We grew orders and revenue both by double digits. We executed, expanding our margin and surpassing our long-term target two years ahead of plan. We transformed with two strategic acquisitions and a divestiture, shifting our portfolio to higher growth and higher margin businesses. Moving forward, the formula remains the same for ITT. Our value creation through organic growth and margin expansion is here to stay. And now, we're compounding to add even greater value through M&A. Finally, it is my pleasure to invite you to our next Capital Markets Day taking place on May 15th in New York City. A lot has happened since our last event in 2022, and importantly, there is much more to come.
You will see our differentiation through execution, innovation, and now M&A brought to life. In addition, you will meet some of the ITTers who differentiate us from the competition and who drive our results day in and day out. I look forward to speaking with you throughout the year and seeing many of you in May or before. Thank you for your support of ITT. It has been my pleasure. Gigi, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator (participant)
The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press star 11 on your touch-tone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 11. Again, we do ask that while you pose your question, you pick up your handset to provide optimal sound quality. Please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Hi, Joe.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Yeah. Yeah, Cliff, congratulations on another strong year. I guess maybe where I'll start is just the guidance for 2025. I know you guys historically have tended to guide fairly conservatively. But maybe, Emmanuel, if you can just kind of step me through, how are we thinking about the cadence for this year from an earnings standpoint? And are there any things that we need to be aware of, particularly in the first quarter, just that could potentially impact Q1 and maybe get better as the year progresses?
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah. So as I mentioned, Joe, the cadence is a little tilted towards the second half of the year. So we have an unusually soft Q1. And so let's think about a little bit what the P&L takes here. So we expect Q1 to be, from an EPS standpoint, to be roughly flat to 2024. We have to keep in mind that the main impact here is the Wolverine divestiture, which results in less revenue and income, and that's about $0.06 of EPS. We also expect organic revenue declines of mainly 1% to 2%, driven by MT, which is expected to outperform original equipment production, but overall will still decline due to lower auto demand. IP and CCT sales should be flat to slightly up. And so overall, Q1 will be, in terms of sales, will be the lowest quarter by quite a bit.
However, all businesses are expected to expand margins, except CCT, who will be up 150 basis points if it wasn't for the kSARIA margin dilution, which is around 400 basis points. We will be impacted by higher interest expense, and this is due to the kSARIA acquisition that happened last September in 2024, and then in Q1, Svanehøj and kSARIA do not contribute meaningfully to EPS. This is due to the temporary intangible amortization, and that will disappear in Q2 for Svanehøj and in Q4 for kSARIA, so overall, we expect Q1 to start a little weak, but a nice recovery then in Q2 and Q3 and Q4 with continued margin expansion and also organic revenue growth.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Super helpful and detailed. Thank you, Emmanuel, and then maybe the longer-term question, and I'm sure we'll get a lot more at the investor day in May. Look, you guys have done a great job on the margin expansion piece, getting to your targets a couple of years in advance. The commentary around the price renegotiations on CCT is interesting. I'd be curious if you can maybe talk a little bit more about what's going on there and ultimately the opportunity potentially within that segment.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Sure. Hi, Joe. This is Luca. So, I think that price is definitely a good lever in CCT. It has been a good lever in 2024, and we're going to see more of that also in 2025. So, we talked about how some big contracts have been renegotiating right now, and we are still in that process, and the signs are positive. I would say the price-cost equation overall has been positive for the entire ITT in 2024, and it will be the same as well in 2025.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Okay. Great. Thank you, guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thank you, Joe.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran from Baird.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hi, Mike.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst)
Hey. Could you just talk about what you're seeing from an order pattern on the IP side of things, both from the short-cycle side as well as the project activity? Obviously, strong backlog coming into the year. How's that backlog feeling? I know you commented on robust short-cycle there. What are you seeing kind of sequential dynamics and anything worth noting in some of the end markets?
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thanks, Mike. Orders were good in Q4, so let's leave the acquisition on the side for a second. If we look on an organic perspective, the orders grew 12% in the quarter. Projects were up 25%, and short-cycle, Mike, was up 8%. 2% was price, 6% was volume, and particularly good in Q4 was service, parts, and valves. Now, if we look at Q4, our weekly run rate of orders was the second highest on record. Q4 was actually the best ever, so Q4 has been really good on the short-cycle. On a full-year basis, our organic orders were up 5%, projects were 13% up year over year, and this on a tough compare. Last year was a very good year and up 20%. Short-cycle, like you asked, was 2% for the full year, 1% price and 1% volume.
If you add to that, and that will be my last comment on Svanehøj, Svanehøj had a book-to-bill of 1.3 for the full year. And their orders grew 26%. So a very good performance from another perspective on Svanehøj as well.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst)
And I suppose how are you expecting that to roll through this year from a trend perspective? I mean, is that front log of opportunity still really strong? And what are the customers saying? And so maybe just kind of roll through the momentum and how you think that plays out.
Luca Savi (CEO)
So the audio is so-and-so, so I hope I got the question. You tell me if I'm not answering your question, Mike. In terms of the funnel and the opportunities, it stays rich. I have to say with the book-to-bill considerably higher with its performance in orders, our funnel came down a little bit at the end of January. It was probably down 8% or 10% year over year, but it's still very high, and good opportunities are across different regions, particularly when it comes to the Middle East. The funnel in Latin America is even higher than last year, and of course, there are customers talking about further investment because also some changes that are happening with the new administration.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thank you, Mike.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hi, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)
I just wanted to understand the temporary intangible amortization. Because last quarter, you called out $0.21 going away. Maybe that is, but you had a footnote with $0.17 intangible. So just trying to understand the delta because I guess I look at your $5.86 this year plus that $0.21 is kind of your starting point, and that would imply just kind of limited earnings growth in the guide.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
No. So in 2024, we had $0.17 of intangible amortization, temporary and we expect that number to be roughly the same in 2025, around $0.16. So we don't really get any benefits from intangible amortization disappearing. We will start getting a benefit for Svanehøj in Q2, but that is compensated by the kSARIA intangible that will run. The amortization will run until the end of Q4.
Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)
Okay. Maybe give us a sense of these acquisition moving pieces. It makes it messy, but core incremental margins in the fourth quarter for IP, CCT. It looks like underlying margins were really good, but again, masked by the deal. And then just on 25, I think the midpoint is 90 basis points of margin expansion. Just, I don't know if order of magnitude where you see the segments lining up. Again, I know there's noise segment by segment given the deals.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah. So on the incrementals in IP, we had a really good performance, 64% in Q4 and then 45% for the full year. That's excluding the impact of acquisitions. And for CCT, for the full year, we were around 20%. And then if we look at 2025, we expect really good incrementals to continue in IP at around between 50% and 60%, and also CCT, pretty good incrementals as well. In Motion Technologies, obviously, the incrementals don't really work because we are increasing the OI and reducing the revenue. And that's why Motion Technologies is expected to be at 20% in 2025.
Jeffrey Hammond (Managing Director)
Okay. Appreciate it, guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thank you, Jeff.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis (CEO)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hi, Scott.
Scott Davis (CEO)
Congrats on a great year. Hey, slide 18, you guys just referenced the M&A muscle, and I think you said it a couple of times to prepared remarks. But what does that really mean functionally? Is that diligence and integration? Is it more that you beefed up the diligence side? Kind of walk us through the changes you've made, at least, and what that really means to you guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Okay. Hi, Scott. I think that when you see it in the results of 2024, right, and you see in the capital deployment that has happened in the last five years, where roughly $1.2 billion is through M&A. Now, when you look at right now, what it means, there is a lot of cultivation. So there is a lot of cultivation going on between the businesses and also the enterprise with our target. So if you think about both Svanehøj and kSARIA and Habonim, that are the last three acquisitions, those were cultivated. And in a couple of those, we were able to get to an exclusive deal. Now, I'm not saying that this is going to happen always, but today, we are busy in cultivating and developing the relationship as well as some due diligence in some of the deals.
Obviously, you hear only the one that we are executing, but in the last few months, also, we walked away from some opportunities where we had due diligence.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Damian Karas from UBS.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hi, Damien.
Hi, Damien.
Damian Karas (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey. Good morning, everyone. So I wanted to ask you about your guidance for Motion Technologies, kind of up low single digits for the segment. Could you maybe spell out a little bit more what you're baking in in terms of global auto production, how much you're expecting friction to outperform, as well as Koni and the rails business?
Luca Savi (CEO)
Sure, so when you look at 2024, obviously, auto production had a tough year in 2024. North America and Europe were down. China showed the resilience and went up, and the picture deteriorated in the second half compared to the first half, Q4 probably being the worst. So when it comes to 2025, on the positive side is we see that the inventories are down worldwide as well as in Europe and in China. But we project the production to come down to roughly 89 million vehicles produced. So it's a little bit of a decline worldwide, and we have China flat, our assumption, and Europe and North America down, with Europe probably being worse. When it comes to, we continue to think that we will outperform the market, and we're thinking roughly 400 basis points of outperformance in the market, and this is for auto.
When it comes to rail, we have a good backlog, and we had two years of outperformance in rail with KONI and Axtone. So we think that we will continue to outperform there as well.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
If I could slip one point on profitability. As I mentioned, we expect Motion Technologies to be at 20% in 2025. A lot of it is going to be driven by productivity. Motion Technologies is an engine for productivity, and we expect around 150-200 basis points of margin impact coming from productivity. We'll have a positive impact on price because we continue to be able to offset the cost inflation that we received in 2022 and 2023 by not giving it back entirely in 2024 and in 2025. We are very attentive to this because it's important for us, as we said many times, to overall, over several years, to recover the entire cost inflation that we suffered from starting in 2022.
Damian Karas (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
That's very helpful, and sticking on the Motion Technologies business, could you possibly give us an update on how Friction is doing in the high-performance market, any trends that you're seeing there, as well as are there any possible strategic changes this year? I know in the past, you've talked about exploring maybe opening up into some of the aftermarkets in Asia, China specifically, or maybe moving a little bit into the light vehicle trucking side of the Friction market. We appreciate any perspective on that.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hi, Damian. So let me start the second question first. So as of today, no, we keep on exploring and we keep on talking strategically, but there are no strong action put in place that will change the strategic direction of Motion Technology and Friction. When it comes to the high performance, the project is progressing well. As a matter of fact, two weeks ago, Daniele and the team sent me a video of all the automation in actions in the plant and the photo of the first brake pads for our customers being produced. So we are ramping up production. We will be able to launch the program, the platform that we're supposed to launch in Q1 and in Q2 perfectly on time.
And then we also took our board of directors there in October to monitor, to witness the investment that they authorized and to monitor the progress and the level of automation that we have on the plant. So very good progress. Now, what you will see in 2025, we are ramping up these programs. We are winning what we had in the plant. So the business case stands and probably is also a little bit better. You will not necessarily see a lot in 2025 because, of course, we are launching. You will start seeing more sizable impact in 2026 and 2027. But remember, you will see probably more on the profitability side than on the growth side because of the business that high performance is.
Damian Karas (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Appreciate the update. Good luck with everything.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thank you, Damian.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel.
Nathan Jones (Senior Equity Analyst)
Good morning, everyone.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hi, Nathan.
Nathan Jones (Senior Equity Analyst)
I guess I'll start on the tariff side of this because you guys have some fairly material operations in Mexico. So obviously, there aren't any tariffs yet, but there may be. So a couple of questions around those. Firstly, I would imagine the Motion Technologies business, the brake pad business in Mexico, primarily sells to OEMs in Mexico. So any tariffs on those brake pads would actually be on the OEM rather than on you. Is that the correct way to think about at least the brake pad business?
Luca Savi (CEO)
Okay. So Nathan, you are on the right track there. And in terms of you really need to look at case by case. So if you take specifically our Silao plant in Mexico, you really need to be surgical and super granular. Let me give you an example.
If you take one platform where we are on the front and the rear, the front axle brake pad that gets delivered to a Tier one in Mexico. So it's not going to be impacted by the tariffs. Now, if you look at the rear axle, the rear axle brake pad comes to the U.S. to a Tier one plant in the U.S. But then after it has been assembled, the majority of it goes back to Mexico to the OEM assembly plant where they assemble the vehicle, and a small portion stays in the U.S. So you really need to be surgical, go contract by contract, platform by platform, front and rear axle, and even within the rear axle, as an example, you have some split. So you really need to do this work.
What I can tell you is that our business, our supply chain leader are already working on this front, and we have our action plans to be ready to be executed. So but that's the case for Motion Technologies.
Nathan Jones (Senior Equity Analyst)
Let me ask it this way. You guys obviously had some issues with auto OEMs passing through inflation during COVID and are still recovering that now. But you have commented that some of those contracts have been changed so that inflation passes through on a bit more of a real-time basis to the OEMs. Would that be the case if you saw a tariff, or would you need to pursue pricing? And then I guess, seeing as it's part of my follow-up question, I'll ask you to talk about the potential impact of tariffs on the CCT business as well. Thanks.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Sure. So when it comes to the OEMs and tier ones, you really need to have a look at the case by case, Nathan. And so we are working both, and we have actions here, both on the operational side as well as the commercial side. And we've already started talking to our customers on that front.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah. And then, Nathan, if we talk about CCT, so you know that we have a large footprint in Nogales with our kSARIA plant there. And Nogales is one of our best-performing plants. You heard earlier that this is a plant that had five years without any safety incidents and achieved a record profitability and growth in Q4. So we'll need to address the eventual tariff impacts, both commercially, that means through price, and also operationally by driving more productivity. So I think that in CCT, one thing that is important to note is that similar to IP, there is a lot of the business that goes through distribution. And so for those customers, we've already started sending letters to inform them of the situation. So that would be pretty straightforward. The other piece is we have defense contracts also, and we'll need to talk about it with our customers.
So I would say also here a very complex subject. And we are obviously driving a lot of the actions right now in order to be ready when tariffs take effect.
Mark Macaluso (VP of Investor Relations)
If I may add, Nathan, in your note, you were asking also about differences with the competitors, right? As a matter of fact, when you look at the CCT and the connector business and you move across the border, you will see the connector footprint of ITT for sure, as you said, but of many of our competitors too. So it's an industry-wide issue that needs to be tackled.
Great. That's awesome. Thanks very much for the color.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano from TD Cowen.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Morning, Joe.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Hey, Joe. Good morning. Hey, how are you?
Joseph Giordano (Managing Director)
Just going back to the IP side, when you think about your guidance mid-single digits, it feels fairly conservative just given the level of orders that you've won. I'm just curious how, when you build that out, is it you kind of layering in potential elongation of project timelines due to geopolitical-type stuff? Just curious how you came up with that. It just feels like maybe there's upside to that number where the orders are.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah. So when you think about the sales guidance for IP, I mean, we are in the mid-single digits. So you're talking 5%-6%, which is really strong in addition to the 8% we grew in 2024. So I just want to set the record here because I think those are pretty strong numbers. And definitely, the market is not growing by those percentages. I think one thing to keep in mind is that you're right. Our orders have been up, and our project orders have been up. But keep in mind that a project takes around 12-18 months before it converts. And those are for the small to medium-sized projects. If you talk about some of those Decarb projects that we got, it's more like 24 months.
So we will start seeing some of those projects convert in 2025, but it'll be towards the latter part of the year. And as a result, we won't get as much growth as the level of orders could imply.
Luca Savi (CEO)
And if I may build on what Emmanuel said, Joe, is that you may remember a couple of years ago, our backlog was made 60% of short cycle and 40% of projects. If you look at today, our backlog is 57% project and 43% short cycle. So it's been shifting. So this is one point, which makes the improvement in terms of the profitability of IP even more outstanding because the projects are generally not as profitable as the short cycle.
Joseph Giordano (Managing Director)
Okay. Yeah, that's all fair. I'm still probably going to take the over on your growth there, but I appreciate the comments. Luca, just given what's going on politically now, does it change? You've done so well with some of these international deals. Does it change your strategy on acquiring businesses that are based outside the U.S., just given what's going on with tariffs and all the rhetoric there?
Luca Savi (CEO)
If you look at the last three acquisitions that we have made, they've been very successful, and they will be successful in the foreseeable future also with the geopolitical situation that we have. Now, think about Svanehøj. Svanehøj is a global business, absolutely, but it plays an incredible role in the energy transition. We're talking about what the new administration is doing with LNG. That plays in our field. What is happening with the LPG, that plays in our field. Svanehøj, great success. If you look at kSARIA, kSARIA is the connectors. We focus particularly on the air and defense. This automatically is mainly in North America, so this is good. The only thing that we say we might have been impacted geopolitically with the Habonim because it's our valves business, great global business, and with our factory in Israel.
Now, the team has been incredibly resilient. The result has been good, even with extra costs that we put in the business just to protect our people. Now, our focus on flow, on connectors, and when it comes to connectors, mainly aero and defense, I think is not really changing. On top, I would say, bearing in mind that our strategy is always to be in the region for the region and therefore trying to reduce some of the challenges that we could have. Think about also the divestiture on the other side. I would say that now we are in a better position than we were in 2018 regarding tariffs because we divested Wolverine, which was the business that was most impacted by it.
Joseph Giordano (Managing Director)
Thanks for the call, guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thanks, Joe.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Thanks, Joe.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Hewitt from Wolfe Research.
Brad Hewitt (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Hey, Brad.
Brad Hewitt (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. So maybe sticking with IP, just curious within the mid-single digit organic growth outlook there for 2025, how does that break down between projects and short cycle? And then from a margin perspective, it looks like you're implying about 100 basis points of margin expansion ex Svanehøj. So just curious if you could kind of break down the drivers of that 100 basis points kind of on the legacy IP business there.
Luca Savi (CEO)
So let me address the improvement in terms of margin in IP. If you look at, we expect our legacy business IP to continue to improve the margin, absolutely right. And this is even more outstanding. You think that project will play a bigger role. Now, some of it will come by with price. We will have a price-cost equation that is going to be positive. Some of it will be on the supply chain. I think there is a lot of work that we can do on the purchasing side to gain profitability on that front. And then there is also a lot on the productivity side in our operations. I was in Seneca Falls together with Hamdy and with Bartek, and we know that we have productivity in the way that we can bring home in the way that we run our machine.
I would say that on a legacy point of view, and then we also have improvement with the acquisition.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah. So a few things to keep in mind. So you're right, Brad. The margin in IP is expected to increase by a little bit more than 100 basis points. That is including the Svanehøj dilution, but given the fact that Svanehøj started mid-January, that dilution is pretty low, right? So we expect, as Luca was saying, strong volume, strong price, and very positive price cost. Now, if you think about Svanehøj as it compares to 2024, we're going to continue to see margin expansion and super strong growth, right? We're expecting Svanehøj to grow in the double digits from a revenue standpoint and EBITDA to also expand, and we're going to be closer to the 20% mark, a little bit below the 20% mark. So we're doing well.
The team is performing well, and we're making sure that we, as ITT, we can add value to their business model.
Brad Hewitt (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. That's helpful. Appreciate that.
Luca Savi (CEO)
And then maybe as we think about CCT margins, it sounds like margins for 2025 ex kSARIA should be around 20.5%. So just trying to think about as the kSARIA amortization winds down a year in 2025, do you still think the 22% margin target in 2026 could be in play for CCT?
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah, that's correct, Brad. You nailed it. 2025 without kSARIA will be above 20% for the full year. kSARIA will be around 300 basis points of dilution impact. And so that sets us well, given the fact that we'll be between 20% and 21%, probably closer to 21%. That sets us well for us achieving that 22% margin target in 2025, excluding kSARIA.
Brad Hewitt (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks, guys.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thanks, Brad.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our last question comes from the line of Vlad Bystricky from Citigroup.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Morning, Vlad.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Hi, Vlad.
Vlad Bystricky (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my call and squeezing me in here. So just following up and digging in on some of the questions around backlog and visibility. I guess just going into the year with a $1.6 billion backlog, can you give any color on how you're thinking about how much of that converts actually within the year versus the portion that might be longer dated tied to some of those longer projects? So hi, Vlad. Now, I think that the order performance has been fantastic. You see it in the book-to-bill of Svanehøj. You see it in the legacy business of IP. You see it with KONI Rail that orders that went up 37%. Now, when you look at all these businesses, they tend to be more long-term. Think about it.
Luca Savi (CEO)
In rail, you win an award, you win a platform, and you might win that platform for the next 20 years. We talked about the project backlog in IP. Two years ago, 60% was short cycle and 40% projects. Now it's the reverse. Almost 60% is project and 40% short cycle. And those projects in IP tend to have an execution of two to three years. In the project market, when we talk about the Riyas project or the Amiral project, those projects are projects that will last two years. And some of the green projects that we won with Bornemann for carbon capture, those are projects that have lasted two, three years, and we're going to close in 2025. Now, another data point that we say when we look at IP, probably today our sales coverage is above 40% for 2025.
Operator (participant)
Thank you.
Vlad Bystricky (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Luca. That was helpful color. I guess just one last follow-up for me. Just on the CCT mid-single digit organic growth, I know you mentioned in the slides Boeing expected ramp beginning in Q2. I guess can you talk about how material that Boeing ramp is to your outlook and how you're thinking about or how we should think about any potential risks to that growth if there are operational challenges there linger more than what's baked into your outlook?
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Yeah. So if you look at our aerospace expected revenue, we're still expecting this to be down in the low single digits in 2025 compared to 2024. So I think that with what we know that has been communicated by the customer, we think that our forecast is appropriate. As we mentioned in the past, Boeing represents roughly $10 million in terms of revenue per quarter. So it is meaningful, but I think that given what's happening in defense, for instance, and what's happening in medical in our connectors business, we expect that we're still going to be able to deliver roughly 45% in terms of growth for CCT in 2025.
Vlad Bystricky (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks, Emmanuel.
Mark Macaluso (VP of Investor Relations)
And Vlad, I just want to make sure you and everyone else saw the mention of the Capital Markets Day on May 15th. So you'll be able to see a lot of the stuff we talk about sort of come to life, and I hope you and everyone else can join us then.
Vlad Bystricky (VP, Equity Research Analyst)
Looking forward to it.
Luca Savi (CEO)
Thanks, Vlad.
Emmanuel Caprais (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.