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JI

Janus International Group, Inc. (JBI)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Janus delivered Q3 2025 revenue of $219.3M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.11, and Adjusted EBITDA $43.6M (19.9% margin), with year-over-year margin expansion despite a revenue decline; Q2 2025 was stronger on margin (21.5%) but higher revenue ($228.1M) .
  • Management narrowed full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $870–$880M and lowered Adjusted EBITDA to $164–$170M, citing geographic and product mix; revenue midpoint unchanged, margin lower vs prior guidance ($175–$195M) .
  • Operational themes: international new construction strength offsets North America softness, commercial “TMC” project timing and LTL market weakness, and accelerating Nokē Smart Entry adoption (439k installed units, +35.9% YoY) .
  • Into Q1 2026, Street consensus expects revenue $205.6M* and EPS $0.13*, down sequentially vs Q4 2025 consensus ($217.4M*, $0.1225*), reflecting normal seasonality and mix effects; estimates are thinly covered (2–5 estimates) and sensitive to segment mix changes [Values retrieved from S&P Global].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Adjusted EBITDA margin improved YoY in Q3 2025 to 19.9% (+~120 bps), helped by prior-year credit loss adjustments, cost actions, and mix management .
    • International segment revenue rose sharply (Q3: $28.3M, +32.9% YoY) as demand normalized and go-to-market strategies matured; new construction strength offset North America softness .
    • Smart Entry traction: “Adoption of our Nokē Smart Entry system continues to progress, with 439,000 installed units at quarter-end, representing an increase of 35.9% year over year,” noted CEO; institutional interest rising .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Commercial and Other revenue fell 20.1% in Q3 2025, with ~70% of the decline due to project timing in TMC and LTL industry weakness; timing expected to push some projects into Q4 and 2026 .
    • Lower EBITDA guidance for FY25 reflects geographic and product mix pressures and limits margin recovery despite cost actions .
    • R3 momentum slower than management hoped in H2 2025; institutional and REIT customers’ timing remains cautious, delaying expected acceleration .

Financial Results

  • Quarterly performance and consensus context
MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q1 2026 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$228.1 $219.3 $205.6*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.15 $0.11 $0.13*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$49.0 $43.6 $35.5*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)21.5% 19.9% N/A*

  • Sequential and YoY notes:

    • Q3 2025 revenue down 3.9% QoQ and 4.7% YoY (vs $230.1M in Q3 2024) .
    • Q3 2025 GAAP diluted EPS up YoY ($0.11 vs $0.08) despite revenue decline, aided by margin improvements and lower interest expense .

  • Segment/sales channel mix

Sales Channel ($USD Millions)Q2 2025% of TotalQ3 2025% of Total
Self-storage – New Construction$93.9 41.2% $97.3 44.4%
Self-storage – R3$52.9 23.2% $57.3 26.1%
Total Self-storage$146.8 64.4% $154.6 70.5%
Commercial and Other$81.3 35.6% $64.7 29.5%
Total Revenues$228.1 100.0% $219.3 100.0%
  • KPIs
KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Nokē Installed Units384,000 409,000 439,000
Net Leverage (Trailing)2.3x (Q2) 2.3x (Q3) 2.3x (Q3)
Liquidity ($USD Millions)$217.1 (Q1) $244.3 (Q2) $256.2 (Q3)

Consensus estimates marked with * are from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$860–$890 $870–$880 Maintained (narrowed range)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$175–$195 $164–$170 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)FY 2025~21.1% midpoint ~19.1% midpoint Lowered

CFO: “We now anticipate EBITDA margins to come down from our original guidance, primarily driven by geographic and product mix.”

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q1 2026)Trend
International strengthRecovery with +58% YoY revenue growth; margins improving as volumes return New construction drove international strength; segment revenue +32.9% YoY Not yet reportedImproving
North America self-storageNew construction soft; R3 pressured by fewer retail conversions New construction soft in NA; R3 modest uptick, but slower than hoped Not yet reportedMixed/soft
Commercial & TMCCommercial +6.7% (Q2), helped by rolling steel and carports/sheds; partial TMC contribution Commercial -20.1% YoY; ~70% of decline due to TMC timing and LTL softness Not yet reportedVolatile (timing-driven)
Tariffs/macro2025 tariff impact low single-digit millions; unmitigated 2026 impact revised down to $6–$8M Tariff impact not material to Q3; mitigation ongoing Not yet reportedManaged/mitigated
Cost actionsFull run-rate savings by end of Q2; $10–$12M annual pre-tax targeted ~70% of savings realized; further opportunities being worked Not yet reportedOngoing benefit
Nokē adoption409k installed units; product stability and price point praised 439k installed; institutional interest accelerating; theft reduction cited by client Not yet reportedAccelerating

Management Commentary

  • Prepared remarks highlights:

    • CEO: “Our team continues to execute in an environment that remains challenging… supported by our balance sheet and cash flow foundation, we will continue to develop our suite of solutions… and invest for future growth.”
    • CEO: International strategy: “There are certain pockets internationally that are undergoing extreme growth… being in the countries that you serve… we’re excited about that” .
    • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.9%, an increase of approximately 120 basis points from the prior year period… primarily attributable to prior year credit loss adjustments… partially offset by volume declines and mix” .
    • Capital allocation: Share repurchases continue; $80.5M remaining authorization at Q3-end; S&P upgraded credit rating to BB- stable .

  • Important quotes

    • “Approximately 70% of the decline in revenue [Commercial & Other] was attributable to our TMC business due to project timing as well as overall weakness in the LTL trucking industry…” — CFO .
    • “Adoption of our Nokē Smart Entry system continues to progress, with 439,000 installed units at quarter-end…” — CEO .
    • “We are updating our full year 2025 guidance… revenues $870–$880M and Adjusted EBITDA $164–$170M… margins to come down from our original guidance, primarily driven by geographic and product mix.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin guidance reset: Analysts probed drivers of margin delta; management emphasized product/geographic mix as primary driver, with tariffs and input costs immaterial in Q3 .
  • TMC dynamics: Large projects influenced by weather and customer decisions; significant timing push from Q3 into Q4 and 2026; underlying R&R nature supports eventual recovery .
  • R3 cadence: Institutional/REIT demand slower than expected; broader mix of renovations, rebranding, and upgrades expected to dial up in H2 2025 .
  • Steel/input costs: Steel prices stable given demand; forward purchases in place, no large changes expected early next year .
  • Inventory levels and cost savings: Inventory elevated versus plan due to volume; ~70% of $10–$12M savings realized with more opportunities underway .

Estimates Context

  • Near-term Street view
MetricQ4 2025 ConsensusQ1 2026 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$217.4*$205.6*
Primary EPS ($)$0.1225*$0.13*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$37.2*$35.5*
# of EPS Estimates4*2*
# of Revenue Estimates5*3*

Consensus estimates marked with * are from S&P Global.

  • Implications:
    • Sequential revenue down from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 per consensus, consistent with typical seasonality and mix commentary (international lower margin vs NA) .
    • Thin estimate coverage increases sensitivity to segment timing and mix (especially TMC and international vs NA self-storage) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin sensitivity to mix: Geographic and product mix (international/new construction vs NA/R3) remains the key determinant of EBITDA margins; guidance reset reflects this reality .
  • International strength offsets NA softness: International new construction continues to outperform, but carries lower margin, shaping overall profitability .
  • TMC timing drives quarterly volatility: Expect project timing to influence quarterly revenue; management flagged pushes into Q4 and 2026 .
  • Smart Entry adoption accelerating: Nokē installed base expansion and demonstrated security benefits support medium-term growth and recurring attachment opportunities .
  • Robust liquidity and improving credit profile: Cash $178.9M at Q3-end, net leverage ~2.3x, share repurchases ongoing; S&P credit rating upgraded to BB- stable .
  • Watch R3 trajectory: Institutional/REIT timing will be key for R3 acceleration; management indicates build in backlog/pipeline but slower near-term conversion .
  • Near-term trading catalysts: Updates to FY25 margin outlook, commentary on TMC timing recovery, and evidence of NA self-storage stabilization may drive reactions at the next print .

Notes:

  • Non-GAAP measures (Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS) are emphasized by management; no reconciliation to GAAP for forward guidance per Item 10(e) “unreasonable efforts” exception .
  • Consensus estimates marked with * are from S&P Global.