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JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP (JBLU)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 came in slightly better than feared on headline metrics: revenue $2.14B (-3.1% y/y) and GAAP diluted EPS of ($0.59); operating margin was (8.2)%, with RASM up 1.3% y/y as capacity fell 4.3% . Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS beat by ~$0.04 and revenue was essentially in line/slightly above; EBITDA was soft on both an absolute and relative basis (see Estimates Context) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).*
  • Management withdrew prior FY25 outlook given soft off-peak demand and macro uncertainty, but issued 2Q25 guidance: ASMs down (3.5%)–(0.5)%, RASM down (7.5%)–(3.5)%, CASM ex‑fuel up 6.5%–8.5%, fuel $2.25–$2.40/gal; FY25 capex trimmed to ~$1.3B (from ~$1.4B in January) .
  • Strategic execution under JetForward continued: premium RASM outperformed core by high-single-digits; transatlantic RASM +28% y/y on 25% fewer ASMs; loyalty revenue +9% y/y; liquidity strong at $3.8B excluding $600M revolver (41% of TTM revenue) .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: further capacity discipline into trough periods; a domestic airline partnership announcement targeted for 2Q; and a comprehensive JetForward update slated for the 2Q call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Premium/loyalty/transatlantic outperformed: premium RASM beat core by high-single digits; transatlantic RASM +28% y/y on 25% fewer ASMs; loyalty revenue +9% with co-brand spend +7% .
  • Cost execution: CASM ex‑fuel growth +8.3% y/y beat the midpoint of guidance despite close-in capacity pulls; sixth consecutive quarter of meeting/beating CASM ex‑fuel guidance .
  • Operational reliability and liquidity: completion factor 98.6%; liquidity $3.8B ex revolver (41% of TTM revenue) provides runway to execute JetForward and absorb macro pressure .
  • Quote: “We were the first carrier to make meaningful capacity adjustments…to better match supply with demand” – CEO Joanna Geraghty .

What Went Wrong

  • Demand softness concentrated in off‑peak: booking strength in January deteriorated through February and worsened in March; off‑peak (shoulder/trough) weakness persisted, pushing 2Q RASM down (7.5%)–(3.5%) y/y .
  • Unit costs ex‑fuel up: CASM ex‑fuel rose 8.3% y/y due to lower capacity and timing/mix, partially offset by reliability-driven savings .
  • Guidance withdrawn: company did not reaffirm prior FY25 targets (RASM +3–6%, CASM ex‑fuel +5–7%, adj op margin 0–1%); visibility remains limited .

Financial Results

Headline P&L by Quarter (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.365 $2.277 $2.140
Operating Margin (%)(1.6)% 0.7% (8.2)%
Pre‑tax Margin (%)(3.3)% (3.6)% (12.7)%
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(60) $(44) $(208)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.17) $(0.13) $(0.59)

Key KPIs and Unit Economics (oldest → newest)

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
ASMs (millions)16,740 16,142 15,608
Load Factor (%)86.6% 82.2% 80.7%
RASM (¢/ASM)14.13 14.11 13.71
CASM (¢/ASM)14.35 14.00 14.83
CASM ex‑Fuel (¢/ASM)10.62 10.76 11.45
Fuel Price ($/gal)$2.67 $2.47 $2.57

Revenue Drivers and Commercial Highlights

ItemQ1 2025
Premium RASM vs CoreHigh single‑digit outperformance
Transatlantic RASM+28% y/y on 25% fewer ASMs
Loyalty Revenue+9% y/y; co‑brand spend +7%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RASM YoYFY 2025+3.0% to +6.0% Not reaffirmed Withdrawn
CASM ex‑Fuel YoYFY 2025+5.0% to +7.0% Not reaffirmed Withdrawn
Adjusted Operating MarginFY 20250.0% to 1.0% Not reaffirmed Withdrawn
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025~$1.4B ~$1.3B Lowered
Interest ExpenseFY 2025~$600M ~$600M Maintained
ASMs YoY2Q 2025—(3.5%) to (0.5%) New quarterly guide
RASM YoY2Q 2025—(7.5%) to (3.5%) New quarterly guide
CASM ex‑Fuel YoY2Q 2025—+6.5% to +8.5% New quarterly guide
Fuel Price ($/gal)2Q 2025—$2.25–$2.40 New quarterly guide

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (two quarters ago)Q4 2024 (prior quarter)Q1 2025 (current)Trend
Premium products/perksAnnounced lounges, premium card; EvenMore enhancements planned Continued product momentum; carry‑on added to Blue Basic Premium RASM > core; EvenMore®/preferred seating strong Strengthening
Demand mix (peak vs trough)Self‑help capacity actions improved off‑peak balance Close‑in/holiday peaks strong Off‑peak deterioration; 2Q RASM down (7.5%)–(3.5%) Weaker troughs
TransatlanticLatin moderation and transatlantic ramp aided RASM Expanded BOS transatlantic flying TA RASM +28% y/y on -25% ASMs Healthy with optimization
Loyalty/Co‑brandRevenue initiatives on track Ended year at $3.9B liquidity; strong loyalty base Loyalty +9% y/y; premium card launched Jan 29 Positive
Partnerships——Domestic airline partnership expected to be announced in 2Q Imminent
Macro/tariffs—Set FY25 guide; healthy backdrop assumed Withdrew FY guide; minimal 2025 tariff impact on 3 German‑built aircraft More cautious

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus and capacity discipline: “We were the first carrier to make meaningful capacity adjustments…to better match supply with demand” – CEO Joanna Geraghty .
  • Demand commentary: “Booking strength from January deteriorated into February and worsened into March…softened demand for off‑peak travel to continue into the second quarter” – President Marty St. George .
  • Cost control and outlook: “First quarter marked the sixth consecutive quarterly CASM ex‑Fuel beat…expect [CASM ex] moderation into the second half as maintenance cadence declines and cost transformation ramps” – CFO Ursula Hurley .
  • Liquidity runway: “Ended 1Q with $3.8B liquidity…no significant maturities over the next three years, beyond regular amortization” – CFO Ursula Hurley .
  • Partnership update: “We are…talking to multiple airlines about domestic partnerships…I expect [an] announcement this quarter” – President Marty St. George .

Q&A Highlights

  • Booking trends stabilized recently: “We’re probably 3 to 4 weeks at a plateau…guide for the second quarter is based on the trends we’re seeing today” – President .
  • Geographic skew: slowdown more acute in the Northeast (validated by ARC/Mastercard data) driving trough‑day capacity cuts; Halifax launch canceled pre‑start given weak demand – President .
  • Domestic partnership scope: “This is a domestic airline with a large network” enabling broader TrueBlue earn/burn utility – President .
  • Pratt & Whitney GTF update: AOGs improved to 10; prior ~3 pts margin drag persists; no compensation assumed in 2025 guidance – CFO .
  • Off‑peak approach: aggressive trough capacity reductions with advance notice to harvest labor/maintenance savings; revisiting A320 extensions to reduce maintenance outlays – CFO/President .
  • Tariffs: vast majority of 2025 deliveries U.S.‑assembled; only three from Germany; exploring mitigation options – CFO .

Estimates Context

MeasureQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$2,139,052,310*$2,140,000,000 ~$0.9M beat*
EPS (Primary/Diluted)$(0.63086)*$(0.59) ~$0.04 beat*
EBITDA ($USD)$970,480*$(6,000,000)*Miss vs positive consensus*
# of Estimates (Rev/EPS)12 / 14*——

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Slight top/bottom‑line beats vs consensus, but underlying mix remains challenging with pronounced trough‑period weakness; 2Q guide embeds RASM down (7.5%)–(3.5%) .
  • Management withdrew FY25 guidance; focus shifts to quarterly execution, capacity discipline, and cost offsets to defend cash and margins .
  • Premium, transatlantic and loyalty are durable bright spots (premium RASM > core; TA RASM +28%; loyalty +9% y/y) that should help buffer macro softness .
  • Liquidity runway is solid ($3.8B ex revolver; 41% of TTM revenue) with FY25 capex trimmed to ~$1.3B; no major maturities for three years .
  • Watch for a domestic airline partnership announcement (2Q) and the biannual JetForward update on the 2Q call as potential narrative/estimate catalysts .
  • Execution priorities: continue trough‑day capacity cuts, align staffing/maintenance, and sustain CASM ex‑fuel moderation into 2H as programs ramp .
  • Pratt & Whitney AOG improvement is a medium‑term tailwind; compensation remains an upside swing factor not in 2025 assumptions .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q1 timeframe)

  • JetBlue, Port Authority, Fraport unveil JFK Terminal 5 refresh (40+ new concessions, amenities; completion by end‑2026) – supports brand/premium strategy .
  • JetBlue and Barclays launch JetBlue Premier World Elite Mastercard (Jan 29) to deepen loyalty monetization and premium benefits .
  • JAL partnership adds TrueBlue point redemptions (Apr 23) expanding international redemption utility (near‑term, post‑Q1) .

Appendix: Company Outlook (as disclosed)

  • 2Q25: ASMs (3.5%)–(0.5%), RASM (7.5%)–(3.5%), CASM ex‑fuel +6.5%–8.5%, fuel $2.25–$2.40/gal .
  • FY25: Capex ~$1.3B; interest expense ~$600M; prior FY25 RASM/CASM ex‑fuel/adj op margin targets withdrawn .