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JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP (JBLU)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results landed at the better end of guidance: revenue $2.32B (-1.8% YoY), diluted EPS -$0.39, RASM -2.7% YoY, and CASM ex-fuel +3.7% YoY; operating margin was -4.3%, three points better than implied by July guidance, aided by strong close-in demand and improved operational reliability .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, JetBlue modestly beat on EPS (actual -$0.39 vs -$0.42*) and was essentially in line on revenue ($2.322B vs $2.322B*); EBITDA missed (actual $87M* vs $105M*) as unit revenue and trough demand remained pressured . Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance improved: FY25 CASM ex-fuel narrowed to +5–6% (from +5–7%), FY25 capex cut to ~$1.1B (from ~$1.2B), and FY25 interest expense trimmed to ~$590M (from ~$600M). Q4 ASMs guided to (0.75%)–2.25% YoY and RASM to (4%)–0% YoY .
  • Strategic catalysts into 2026: Fort Lauderdale expansion (largest carrier, 17 new routes; early ramp may be a near-term RASM headwind), Blue Sky loyalty accrual/redemption live, interline cross-selling next, domestic first-class retrofit targeting ~25% of fleet by YE26, and lounge openings (JFK in Q4 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong close-in demand drove unit revenues to the better end of initial guidance; premium RASM outperformed core by six points, and TrueBlue revenue rose 12% YoY .
  • Cost execution: CASM ex-fuel up 3.7% YoY, beating midpoints; operational reliability in Aug/Sep and timing shift in maintenance aided results; E190 fleet completed retirement, with A220s expected to deliver ~25% unit cost improvement vs E190 .
  • Management tone: “JetBlue's progress toward profitability is gaining momentum… Revenue and costs came in at the better half of their respective guidance ranges, significantly improving our financial performance” — CEO Joanna Geraghty .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY pressure on RASM (-2.7%) and load factor (-150bps), reflecting lingering trough demand softness and domestic performance lag vs international .
  • Maintenance costs remain a headwind into 2026 due to aging A320 fleet under time-and-material agreements; CASEM ex-fuel guided to grow modestly in Q4 .
  • EBITDA underperformed consensus despite improved operating metrics, reflecting lagging troughs and early-stage ramp of Fort Lauderdale capacity, which management flagged as a near-term headwind .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.140 $2.356 $2.322
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.59 -$0.21 -$0.39
Operating Margin (%)-8.2% 0.3% -4.3%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)-8.2% 1.3% -4.1%
Pre-tax Margin (%)-12.7% -4.0% -8.4%
Adjusted Pre-tax Margin (%)-12.7% -3.1% -8.6%
KPIsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
ASMs (mm)15,608 16,634 16,884
RPMs (mm)12,601 13,627 14,372
Load Factor (%)80.7% 81.9% 85.1%
Aircraft Utilization (hrs/day)9.7 10.2 10.1
Average Fare ($)212.58 218.52 205.67
Yield (¢/RPM)15.63 15.99 14.86
RASM (¢/ASM)13.71 14.17 13.75
CASM (¢/ASM)14.83 14.13 14.34
CASM ex-fuel (¢/ASM)11.45 10.86 11.02
Avg Fuel Cost ($/gal)$2.57 $2.40 $2.49
Fuel Gallons (mm)199 210 217
Revenue Mix (Q3 2025)Amount ($mm)YoY Change
Passenger$2,135 -2.9%
Other$187 +12.0%
Total Operating Revenues$2,322 -1.8%
Q3 2025 vs ConsensusEstimate*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($mm)2,321.85*2,322.0 +$0.15mm
Diluted EPS ($)-0.420*-0.39 +$0.03
EBITDA ($mm)105.27*87.0*-$18.27mm

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
ASMs YoYQ3 2025(1.0%) to 2.0% 0.0% to 1.0% Lowered
RASM YoYQ3 2025(6.0%) to (2.0%) (4.0%) to (1.5%) Raised (less negative)
CASM ex-fuel YoYQ3 20254.0% to 6.0% 3.5% to 5.5% Lowered
Fuel Price ($/gal)Q3 2025$2.50–$2.65 $2.45–$2.55 Lowered
Capex ($mm)Q3 2025~$375 ~$325 Lowered
ASMs YoYFY 2025(2.5%) to (0.5%) (2.0%) to 0.0% Raised
CASM ex-fuel YoYFY 20255.0% to 7.0% 5.0% to 6.0% Lowered (narrowed)
Interest Expense ($mm)FY 2025~600 ~590 Lowered
Capital Expenditures ($mm)FY 2025~1,200 ~1,100 Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Premium products & loyaltyPremium RASM outperformed; preferred seating and new premium co-brand card met sign-up targets; J.D. Power recognition Premium RASM +6pts vs core; TrueBlue revenue +12% YoY; lounges: JFK in Q4’25, BOS in 2026; domestic first retrofit ~25% by YE26 Strengthening momentum in premium monetization
Blue Sky (United collaboration)Announced with expected $50mm incremental EBIT vs prior partnership assumption; accelerates JetForward Accrual/redemption live; interline cross-selling in early 2026; loyalty benefits later; Paisly integration 1H26 Implementation ramping; expected to contribute meaningfully in 2026
Fort Lauderdale expansionOngoing network build; added routes and Mint expansion Largest carrier; 17 new routes; 12 frequency adds; >25 daily Mint-linked flights; peak 113 daily departures; near-term RASM headwind during ramp Strategic network catalyst; near-term mix pressure
Technology/AI opsCost initiatives in AI/data science, self-service, disruption tools Implemented SkyBreathe fuel optimization; Project Kuiper partnership; Quvia for IFC QoE; NDC and continuous pricing under evaluation Digital/AI adoption broadening, supporting costs and customer experience
Supply chain/enginesAOG outlook improving; fewer than 10 aircraft grounded avg in 2025 AOG averaged 9 in 2025; 6 grounded now; low–mid single digit AOG in 2026; no Pratt compensation assumed in 2025 Tailwind into 2026 as aircraft return to service
Macro/trough demandSofter off-peak demand; proactive capacity pulls Peaks strong; troughs remain challenging; booking curve normalizing; domestic lag vs international Gradual normalization; troughs still a risk factor

Management Commentary

  • “JetBlue's progress toward profitability is gaining momentum… Revenue and costs came in at the better half of their respective guidance ranges” — Joanna Geraghty, CEO .
  • “Implementation of Blue Sky… has already begun delivering value… we enabled point accrual and redemption… interline cross-selling is expected in early 2026” — Marty St. George, President .
  • “We ended the quarter with CASEM ex-fuel up 3.7%… beating the midpoint… we improved our full-year CASEM ex-fuel guidance… and expect capex to be at or below $1B annually beginning in 2026” — Ursula Hurley, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Fort Lauderdale capacity and competitor restructuring: management sees “generational” international gate timing opportunities; near-term RASM headwind in Q4 but bullish longer-term .
  • Government shutdown impact: no meaningful impact observed; operations stable .
  • Liquidity and financing: YE25 liquidity ~32% of TTM revenue; modest capital raise in 2026 for aircraft and $325mm converts; >$5B unencumbered assets provide flexibility .
  • Engine/AOG update: 2025 peak AOG with average nine; low–mid single digits in 2026; no Pratt compensation in 2025 guide .
  • Booking curve: ~90% October, ~55% November, ~35–38% December booked; peaks strong, troughs challenged; normalization toward historical patterns .
  • Maintenance costs: A320 maintenance remains a headwind under time-and-material agreements into 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • EPS beat and revenue in line: Actual diluted EPS -$0.39 vs consensus -$0.42*; revenue $2,322mm vs $2,321.85mm*. EBITDA missed (actual $87mm* vs $105mm*) . Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Potential estimate revisions: Near-term revenue estimates may reflect Fort Lauderdale ramp headwinds and trough demand; cost estimates likely adjust lower given narrowed FY25 CASM ex-fuel and reduced capex/interest guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution quality improving: Cost control and operational reliability drove margins above internal expectations; CASM ex-fuel guide narrowed despite lower capacity .
  • Premium monetization and loyalty remain bright spots underpinning the 2026 return-to-profitability narrative (lounges, domestic first, Blue Sky accrual/redemption live) .
  • Network catalyst: Fort Lauderdale expansion establishes durable East Coast leisure leadership; expect early ramp to pressure RASM, with seasonal tailwinds and connectivity benefits in 1H26 .
  • Balance sheet and capex: Liquidity strong ($2.9B excl. revolver); capex trending ≤$1B annually from 2026; interest expense trimmed; modest capital raise anticipated in 2026 for fleet and converts .
  • Operational tailwind: Pratt GTF AOG improving into 2026 supports capacity growth with capital-light characteristics (returning grounded aircraft) .
  • Risk monitor: Trough demand normalization pace, maintenance cost trajectory (A320), and near-term Fort Lauderdale mix headwinds; watch fuel price volatility .
  • Tactical setup: EPS/Revenue prints near/above consensus with improved cost guide and strategic catalysts can support sentiment; near-term trading sensitive to Q4 RASM progression and Blue Sky/FTL ramp updates .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.