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JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP (JBLU)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered a positive adjusted operating margin of 0.8% on $2.277B revenue, with RASM up 3.2% YoY and capacity down 5.1%; GAAP net loss narrowed to $44M (−$0.13), and adjusted net loss was $72M (−$0.21) .
  • Management highlighted outperformance vs revised internal guidance: revenue beat midpoint by ~1.4 pts and CASM ex‑fuel finished 2.5 pts better than midpoint; completion factor ~99% and on‑time performance improved five points YoY .
  • JetForward initiatives captured $395M of revenue in 2024 (vs $300M target), contributing $90M incremental EBIT, with FY25 guidance set to 0.0–1.0% adjusted operating margin, RASM +3–6%, and CASM ex‑fuel +5–7% .
  • 2025 headwinds: Pratt & Whitney GTF groundings expected to rise to mid‑to‑high teens aircraft, a ~3pt drag to operating margin; mitigation includes A320 life extensions, retiring E190s after summer peak, and prioritizing A220/A321 deliveries .
  • Catalysts: execution on revenue/product (EvenMore, preferred seating, loyalty/premium credit card), network redeployments (East Coast leisure, San Juan), and cost transformation; medium‑term margin lift expected as GTF headwind resolves .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue and cost beats vs revised internal guidance; adjusted operating margin improved >2 pts YoY to 0.8%; “We finished the year strong, exceeding both revenue and cost expectations” – CEO Joanna Geraghty .
  • Reliability improved: completion factor ~99%, on‑time performance +5 pts YoY; “Our reliability initiatives are driving greater customer satisfaction” – President Marty St. George .
  • Revenue initiatives outperformed: $395M captured vs $300M target; Blue Basic carry‑on and preferred seating led performance; $90M incremental EBIT pulled forward to 2024 .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP profitability still negative: Q4 GAAP net loss $44M; adjusted net loss $72M; interest expense remains elevated ($150M in Q4) .
  • Unit costs excluding fuel rose 11.0% YoY in Q4; wage step‑ups and maintenance timing keep CASM ex‑fuel elevated in 1H25 (8–10% in Q1) .
  • Pratt & Whitney GTF groundings: direct operating margin drag ~2.5 pts in 2024, rising to ~3 pts in 2025; average grounded aircraft expected mid‑to‑high teens in 2025 .

Financial Results

Income Statement & Margins (quarterly progression)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Operating Revenues ($B)$2.428 $2.365 $2.277
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)$25 $(60) $(44)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.07 $(0.17) $(0.13)
Operating Margin (%)2.3% (1.6)% 0.7%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)2.4% (0.4)% 0.8%
Operating Revenue per ASM (RASM, cents)14.38 14.13 14.11
CASM ex‑Fuel (cents)10.24 10.62 10.76
Load Factor (%)84.0% 86.6% 82.2%
Average Fuel Price ($/gal)$2.87 $2.67 $2.47

Q4 2024 YoY snapshot (vs Q4 2023)

MetricQ4 2024Q4 2023YoY Change
Total Operating Revenues ($B)$2.277 $2.325 (2.1%)
Operating Margin (%)0.7% (2.9)% +3.6 pts
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)0.8% (1.6)% +2.4 pts
RASM (cents)14.11 13.67 +3.2%
CASM ex‑Fuel YoY (%)——+11.0%
Capacity (ASMs, YoY)——(5.1%)

Revenue Mix (quarterly)

Revenue Mix ($M)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Passenger$2,265 $2,198 $2,100
Other$163 $167 $177
Total$2,428 $2,365 $2,277

Operating KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
ASMs (millions)16,887 16,740 16,142
Completion Factor (%)—~98 ~99
On‑time Performance (YoY pts)—+12 pts +5 pts

Estimates vs Actuals (consensus)

MetricQ4 2024 ActualQ4 2024 ConsensusQ3 2024 ActualQ3 2024 ConsensusQ2 2024 ActualQ2 2024 Consensus
Revenue ($B)$2.277 N/A (SPGI limits)$2.365 N/A (SPGI limits)$2.428 N/A (SPGI limits)
EPS ($)$(0.13) N/A (SPGI limits)$(0.17) N/A (SPGI limits)$0.07 N/A (SPGI limits)

Note: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable due to request limits; therefore estimate comparisons are not shown.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue YoYQ4 2024(7.0%) to (3.0%) (Oct 29) Revised Dec 4 midpoint improved; revenue beat revised midpoint by ~1.4 pts Raised vs initial; Actual beat
ASMs YoYQ4 2024(7.0%) to (4.0%) (Oct 29) Revised Dec 4 (5.0%) to (2.0%) Raised (less negative)
RASM YoYQ1 2025—(0.5%) to 3.5% (Easter shift ~1.5 pt headwind) New
ASMs YoYQ1 2025—(5.0%) to (2.0%) New
CASM ex‑Fuel YoYQ1 2025—8.0% to 10.0% New
Fuel Price ($/gal)Q1 2025—$2.65 to $2.80 New
Adjusted Operating MarginFY 2025—0.0% to 1.0% New
RASM YoYFY 2025—3.0% to 6.0% New
CASM ex‑Fuel YoYFY 2025—5.0% to 7.0% New
Interest ExpenseFY 2025—~$600M New
Capital ExpendituresQ1/FY 2025—~$270M / ~$1.4B New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior)Q3 2024 (Prior)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Reliability/OTPMulti‑year investment; OTP improvement underway OTP +12 pts; completion ~98% Completion ~99%; OTP +5 pts YoY Improving
Pratt & Whitney GTFExpect mid‑to‑high teens grounded in 2025; deferrals to mitigate 11 aircraft grounded avg in 2024; peak in next 1–2 years ~2.5pt margin drag in 2024; ~3 pts in 2025; grounded mid‑to‑high teens Headwind increasing near term
Revenue Initiatives$140M 1H capture; Blue Basic carry‑on added ~$275M YTD capture; premium revenue up double digits $395M 2024 capture; $90M incremental EBIT Accelerating
Premium product (EvenMore/Mint)Plan to evolve EvenMore; premium demand strong EvenMore enhancements announced; premium revenue strength EvenMore launched Jan 28; dedicated bin, drinks, snack Launch executed
Network redeployments15 cities & 50+ routes to exit; East Coast leisure focus Backloaded exits (Oct/Nov); Boston/NE expansion Early ramp of redeployments (~20% capacity); San Juan focus Ramping
Loyalty/premium credit cardPremium card announced; loyalty as stickiness driver Lounges and card announced; loyalty growth Premier Card launched Jan 29; 70k bonus offer Launch executed
Competitive capacityLatin overcapacity moderating; self‑help trough cuts Headwinds in Boston; Lauderdale down capacity Elevated competitive capacity in NE/Florida in Q1; management committed to compete Mixed
Cost programsStructural savings $145M YTD; CASM ex beat Structural program $169M YTD; CASM ex‑fuel 4.8% Structural program $190M total savings; cost transformation to drive 2025 tailwinds Building tailwinds
Alliances/NEANot holding Investor Day; exploring options Discussions with carriers; small impact in plan Ongoing talks; framework noted; no announcements TBD

Management Commentary

  • “2024 was a year of rapid change…JetForward, setting us on a path to get back to profitability. We finished the year strong, exceeding both revenue and cost expectations” – Joanna Geraghty, CEO .
  • “We believe the culmination of these efforts will boost our revenue performance in 2025 to ultimately drive positive operating margin for the year” – Marty St. George, President .
  • “Number One Financial Priority is Achieving Operating Profitability…guiding to 0.0%–1.0% adjusted operating margin for 2025” – Ursula Hurley, CFO .
  • “We’re pleased to say we’ve already captured $90 million of our $800–$900 million target for incremental EBIT through 2027” – Joanna Geraghty .

Q&A Highlights

  • Revenue acceleration: Easter shift (~1.5 pts) plus JetForward phasing; no assumption of competitive capacity easing – St. George .
  • Boston RASM: growth dilutive vs rest; redeploying ASMs from LGA business banks back to NE leisure – St. George .
  • Unit cost cadence: Q1’25 most elevated from maintenance timing and pilot wage step‑ups; moderation expected through year – Hurley .
  • Latin/Caribbean: Latin recovered; San Juan pressured by capacity but maintaining base; transatlantic ramping well – St. George .
  • Fort Lauderdale competition: overall competitive capacity still down; performance “very good” – St. George .
  • GTF compensation/peak timing: settlement talks ongoing; peak grounded count within next 1–2 years; impact ~3 pts margin in 2025 – Hurley .
  • First class timing: no 2025 revenue benefit; first installs in 2026 – St. George .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4/Q3/Q2 2024 were unavailable due to SPGI request limits; therefore, comparisons to Street consensus are not shown. Internal guidance comparisons indicate revenue and CASM ex‑fuel outperformance vs revised midpoints in Q4 2024 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term: Q4 execution and reliability improvements underpin FY25 breakeven operating margin guide; watch Q1 CASM ex‑fuel peak and Easter shift headwind on RASM .
  • Revenue momentum: $395M initiatives and premium merchandising (EvenMore, preferred seating, loyalty/pricing) should support FY25 RASM +3–6% despite competitive capacity pockets .
  • Cost trajectory: structural program achieved $190M in 2024; cost transformation and technology optimization targeted for incremental savings, with CASM ex‑fuel moderating after Q1 .
  • Fleet/Capex discipline: ~$3B capex deferred, focus on A320 extensions and A220 deliveries; FY25 capex ~$1.4B funded by cash/liquidity – reduces execution risk and supports balance sheet .
  • Risk monitor: GTF engine groundings (~3 pts margin drag in 2025) and competitive capacity in NE/Florida could pressure unit economics; offset via network redeployments and product/loyalty tailwinds .
  • Medium‑term thesis: As GTF headwind resolves over 1–2 years and JetForward contributes $800–$900M EBIT through 2027, operating margin trajectory should improve; watch lounges/premium card ramp and domestic first class in 2026 for incremental premium mix .
  • Trading implications: Positive revisions likely tied to sustained RASM outperformance, demonstrated CASM ex‑fuel moderation, and clarity on GTF compensation/grounded aircraft trajectory .