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JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC (JHG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was resilient despite market dislocation: AUM declined 1% q/q to $373.2B with fourth consecutive quarter of positive net inflows of $2.0B .
  • Revenue of $621.4M (+12.6% y/y) and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.79 (+11% y/y) modestly beat S&P Global consensus (Revenue $614.9M*, EPS $0.723*); GAAP EPS was $0.77, flat q/q .
  • Capital return stepped up: dividend raised 3% to $0.40, and a new $200M buyback authorization through April 2026; 0.6M shares repurchased for $27M in the quarter .
  • Near-term narrative catalysts: Guardian partnership (managing $45B fixed income, up to $400M seed, PAS collaboration), with management guiding net management fee rate to be ~5–6 bps lower after full onboarding by end-Q2; margin impact expected to be earnings accretive by mid-2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Positive net flows in both Intermediary (+$1.5B) and Institutional (+$0.8B), marking the fourth straight quarter of organic growth; “delivering positive active flows is a key differentiator” .
    • Fixed income momentum: net inflows +$5.6B driven by active fixed income ETFs (+$5.7B; led by JAAA), plus multi-sector credit and ABS strategies .
    • Long-term investment performance solid: 77%, 65%, and 73% of AUM outperforming benchmarks over 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods; Morningstar top-2 quartile AUM at 73% over 10 years .
    • Strategic partnership with Guardian expands insurance presence; expected to be accretive to earnings upon full integration by mid-2026 .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Equity flows -$4.2B amid risk-off sentiment; multi-asset net outflows of $0.6B, largely from the balanced strategy .
    • Adjusted operating margin compressed q/q to 32.2% (from 36.1% in Q4) due to seasonal performance fees; performance fees were -$3.6M vs -$13.1M a year ago (improved but still negative) .
    • Management expects aggregate net management fee rate to decline ~5–6 bps upon Guardian onboarding, a headwind to revenue per AUM offset by scale and accretion trajectory .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$551.7 $708.3 $621.4
Adjusted Revenue ($USD Millions)$426.8 $567.6 $486.5
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$119.2 $197.5 $153.6
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$128.2 $204.7 $156.6
Operating Margin (%)21.6% 27.9% 24.7%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)30.0% 36.1% 32.2%
Net Income Attributable to JHG ($USD Millions)$130.1 $121.8 $120.7
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($USD)$0.81 $0.77 $0.77
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.71 $1.07 $0.79

Estimates vs Actual (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensus EstimateActualResult
Revenue ($USD Millions)$614.9M*$621.4M Beat
EPS (Adjusted Diluted) ($USD)$0.723*$0.79 Beat

Segment flows by capability:

CapabilityQ3 2024 Net Flows ($USD Billions)Q4 2024 Net Flows ($USD Billions)Q1 2025 Net Flows ($USD Billions)
Equities-$2.5 -$2.5 -$4.2
Fixed Income+$5.2 +$5.2 +$5.6
Multi-Asset+$0.1 +$0.1 -$0.6
Alternatives+$0.5 +$0.5 +$1.2

KPIs:

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Closing AUM ($USD Billions)$352.6 $378.7 $373.2
Net Sales/(Redemptions) ($USD Billions)-$3.0 +$3.3 +$2.0
Sales ($USD Billions)$15.9 $20.4 $22.9
Redemptions ($USD Billions)-$18.9 -$17.1 -$20.9
Performance Fees ($USD Millions)-$13.1 $67.5 -$3.6

Note: Adjusted results exclude pass-through distribution/servicing fees and certain non-operating/non-cash items per reconciliations .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Compensation-to-Revenue RatioFY 202543–44% 43–44% Maintained
Non-Comp Operating Expense GrowthFY 2025Mid- to high single-digit Higher end of mid- to high single-digit Raised within range
Tax Rate on Adjusted Net IncomeFY 202523–25% 23–25% Maintained
Aggregate Net Management Fee RatePost-Guardian Onboarding48.6 bps (FY 2024 actual) ~5–6 bps lower once Guardian assets onboarded by end-Q2 Expected lower
U.S. Mutual Fund Performance FeesFY 2025Negative high single-digit expected No change communicated in Q1Maintained
Dividend per ShareQ1 2025$0.39 (Q4 2024) $0.40 Raised
Share Repurchase AuthorizationThrough Apr 2026$200M program (Oct 2024) New $200M authorization Extended/new authorization

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Q-2)Q4 2024 (Q-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Active ETFs / CLO liquidityPositive net inflows; AUM up; buyback/dividend increased Four fixed income ETFs >$1B; 8th largest active ETF provider; equity ETF expansion; European ETF push via Tabula CLO ETF liquidity proved resilient during April volatility; redemptions absorbed; category leadership (JAAA) Strengthening and broadening
Institutional pipelineNot highlighted10 distinct fundings ($100–$500M each); positive flows across regions RFP activity up ~100% YoY in U.S.; broader global opportunities; consultant stance more benign Building momentum
AI/Technology initiativesNot highlightedBrand + AI investments; internal RFP gen-AI tool; distribution intelligence platform Continued execution focus (broader innovation lens) Ongoing adoption
Macro/marketMarket gains supported Q3 results Broad improvement; expense leverage Tumultuous markets and April dislocation; yet resilient flows/performance More volatile
Regional trends (Intermediary)Mixed region detailU.S. + APAC net inflows; EMEA/LatAm slight outflows in Q4 U.S. + APAC net inflows; EMEA net outflows; self-directed near flat ex-ETFs US/APAC positive; EMEA softer
Fee rate/marginsAdj. op margin 34.9% in Q3 Net mgmt fee margin 48.6 bps; adj. op margin 36% Net mgmt fee ~48.5 bps; expected 5–6 bps decline post-Guardian; adj. op margin 32% Slight margin/fee pressure expected

Management Commentary

  • “Our first quarter results are solid, with year-over-year improvements in net flows, operating revenues, operating income, and EPS… new buyback authorization and increase to our dividend reflect our excellent cash flow and our continued commitment to capital return” — Ali Dibadj, CEO .
  • “Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.79 is an 11% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024… Board has authorized a new share buyback program of up to $200 million… 3% increase in our quarterly dividend” — Prepared remarks .
  • “Net management fee margin remained relatively stable at 48.5 basis points… expected to be approximately 5 to 6 basis points lower once [Guardian] assets are fully onboarded at the end of the second quarter” — Roger Thompson, CFO .
  • “Guardian… will manage the $45 billion investment-grade public fixed income portfolio… up to $400 million of seed capital… accretive to earnings upon full integration by mid-2026” — Prepared remarks .

Q&A Highlights

  • CLO ETF liquidity: Management reported early-April volatility saw redemptions absorbed “as expected,” with no dislocations; reiterated leadership with ~80% category share and long-term investor base in CLO ETFs .
  • Institutional growth priorities: U.S. RFP activity up ~100% YoY; consultant support improving; late-stage opportunities rising 20–30% YoY; broad product interest (EM debt, securitized, balanced, high conviction equities) .
  • Guardian partnership: Beyond the $45B IMA, the PAS platform collaboration and up to $400M seed will catalyze product innovation and distribution; positions JHG as top-15 unaffiliated insurance asset manager .
  • M&A and Privacore: Active pipeline with disciplined, client-led approach and cultural fit focus; considering strategic options to potentially extend window to acquire remaining 51% of Privacore over time .
  • Regional flow color: Intermediary clients in EMEA/UK/U.S. showed caution during early-April dislocation; APAC and LatAm remained stronger; institutional more stable .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results modestly exceeded S&P Global consensus on both revenue and EPS.
  • With management guiding net management fee rate to decline ~5–6 bps post-Guardian onboarding and non-comp expenses at the higher end of mid- to high single-digit growth in 2025, models may need to reflect slightly lower fee yield but higher scale and earnings accretion by mid-2026 .
MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$614.9M*$621.4M
EPS (Adjusted Diluted) ($USD)$0.723*$0.79

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Organic growth intact: Fourth straight quarter of positive net flows (+$2.0B), with Intermediary and Institutional both positive; supports improving revenue durability despite market noise .
  • Fixed income franchise is a differentiator: +$5.6B net inflows; active fixed income ETFs remain a powerful growth engine (JAAA leadership) — a near-term positive for flows and fee revenue mix .
  • Capital return elevated: Dividend to $0.40 and new $200M buyback — supportive for shares and indicative of strong liquidity ($1.1B cash) .
  • Expect fee yield headwind offset by scale: Net management fee rate to decline ~5–6 bps post-Guardian onboarding end-Q2, but management guides earnings accretion by mid-2026; incorporate both in estimates .
  • Margin trajectory: Q1 adjusted margin 32.2% vs 30.0% a year ago; seasonal Q4 performance fees drove prior quarter strength; expense discipline (comp ratio 43–44%) remains central .
  • Watch equity flow headwinds: -$4.2B in Q1; balanced strategy saw outflows; narrative hinges on stabilizing equity flows while fixed income momentum continues .
  • Strategic optionality: Active M&A pipeline and innovation (AI, tokenization, PAS partnership) broaden future growth vectors; consider optionality in medium-term thesis .

Additional Materials Reviewed

  • Q4 2024 8-K results and transcript (trend and guidance baseline) .
  • Q3 2024 8-K results (trend on flows, margins) .
  • Press release: JAAA AUM surpassed $20B (Feb 6, 2025) — underscores ETF momentum .

Discrepancies/clarifications: Q1 performance fees cited as -$3.6M in the 8-K vs “~-$4M” on the call (rounding); use the 8-K figure for modeling .