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JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • JPM delivered Q4 2024 net income of $14.0B and diluted EPS of $4.81 on managed revenue of $43.7B; ROE was 17% and ROTCE 21% .
  • CIB led with revenue of $17.6B; Markets revenue was $7.0B (+21% YoY) and investment banking fees were $2.48B (+49% YoY), reflecting strong client activity and favorable conditions .
  • Credit costs were $2.6B, including $2.4B in net charge-offs and a $267M net reserve build; Card Services net charge-off rate rose to 3.30% on seasoning and balance growth .
  • 2025 outlook: NII ex-Markets ~$90B; firmwide NII ~$94B; adjusted expense ~$95B; Card Services NCO rate ~3.6%—management expects an NII trough mid-year with deposits stabilizing and modest margin compression .
  • Capital remains a “fortress”: CET1 ratio 15.7%; management aims to arrest the growth of excess CET1, implying more buybacks absent attractive deployment opportunities .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Markets and IB outperformed: “clients were active, with IB fees up 49%, and Markets revenue rose 21%” (Jamie Dimon) .
    • AWM momentum: “management fees rose 21%, and revenue hit a record $5.8 billion… client asset net inflows totaled $486 billion in 2024” (Jamie Dimon) .
    • Deposit stabilization and checking growth: consumer balances stabilized; management sees visible firmwide deposit growth trend in 2H25 with checking deposits already improving (Jeremy Barnum) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • NII ex-Markets down 2% YoY on deposit margin compression and lower balances in CCB, partly offset by reinvestment and card revolver growth (Jeremy Barnum) .
    • Higher card credit losses: CCB NCOs up $428M YoY; Card Services net charge-off rate rose to 3.30% on seasoning and growth .
    • Expenses up ex-FDIC: while reported expense fell YoY due to the prior-year FDIC special assessment, underlying expense rose 5% YoY on compensation, brokerage and distribution fees (Jeremy Barnum) .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Managed Revenue ($USD Billions)$39.943 $43.315 $43.738
Diluted EPS ($)$3.04 $4.37 $4.81
ROE (%)12% 16% 17%
ROTCE (%)15% 19% 21%
Overhead Ratio - Managed (%)61% 52% 52%
Operating DetailQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Interest Income ($USD Billions)$24.051 $23.405 $23.350
Noninterest Revenue ($USD Billions)$14.523 $19.249 $19.418
Provision for Credit Losses ($USD Billions)$2.762 $3.111 $2.631
Total Noninterest Expense ($USD Billions)$24.486 $22.565 $22.762
Net Income ($USD Billions)$9.307 $12.898 $14.005

Segment Breakdown (Managed Basis)

Segment Revenue ($USD Billions)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)$18.097 $17.791 $18.362
Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB)$14.974 $17.015 $17.598
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)$5.095 $5.439 $5.778
Corporate$1.777 $3.070 $2.000
Total$39.943 $43.315 $43.738
Segment Net Income ($USD Billions)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
CCB$4.788 $4.046 $4.516
CIB$4.177 $5.691 $6.636
AWM$1.217 $1.351 $1.517
Corporate$(0.875) $1.810 $1.336
Total$9.307 $12.898 $14.005

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Investment Banking Fees ($USD Millions)$1,667 $2,231 $2,421
Markets Total Net Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.847 $7.152 $7.049
AUM ($USD Billions)$3,422 $3,904 $4,045
Client Assets ($USD Billions)$5,012 $5,721 $5,932
CET1 Ratio (Std.) (%)15.0% 15.3% 15.7%
Tangible Book Value per Share ($)$86.08 $96.42 $97.30
Average Deposits ($USD Billions)$2,372 $2,383 $2,417
Card Services Net Charge-off Rate (%)2.79% 3.24% 3.30%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
NII ex-Markets ($USD Billions)FY 2025N/A in Q4 docs~$90 New/Set
Firmwide NII ($USD Billions)FY 2025N/A in Q4 docs~$94 New/Set
Adjusted Expense ($USD Billions)FY 2025N/A in Q4 docs~$95 New/Set
Card Services NCO Rate (%)FY 2025~3.6% (prior guidance referenced)~3.6% Maintained

Management noted NII trough could occur mid-2025, with deposits stabilizing and modest margin compression due to lower rates .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
NII normalization and deposit marginOngoing normalization narrative and deposit margin pressures referenced through 2024; Markets excluded for clarity Expects 2025 NII ex-Markets ~$90B; trough mid-year; deposits stabilizing and growth visible in 2H25 Normalization moderating; improving deposit trajectory
Regulation and capital frameworkSegment reorg in Q2; continued focus on holistic regulatory approach Calls for coherent, data-driven regulation; recognizes supervisory transparency efforts; CET1 15.7% Constructive regulatory tone; strong capital
Markets and IB pipelineStrong Markets revenue in 2024; Payments and Securities Services records Markets +21% YoY; IB fees +49%; optimistic pipeline Strength sustained; optimism persists
Card credit trendsRevolver normalization tailwind in 2024 2025 Card NCO ~3.6%; Q4 Card NCO 3.30% with seasoning effects Gradual normalization continuing
AWM inflows and client assetsAWM scale increasing across asset classes Long-term net inflows $76B in Q4; AUM $4.0T; client assets $5.9T Strong inflows and market support

Management Commentary

  • Jamie Dimon: “Each line of business posted solid results. In the CIB, clients were active, with IB fees up 49%, and Markets revenue rose 21%... Payments revenue to a record $18.1 billion for the year... in AWM, management fees rose 21%… client asset net inflows totaled $486 billion in 2024.”
  • Jeremy Barnum: “NII ex Markets was down 2%… driven by lower rates and deposit margin compression… credit costs were $2.6B, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.4B and a net reserve of $267M.”
  • Jeremy Barnum: “We expect 2025 NII ex Markets to be approximately $90B… we expect the NII trough could be sometime in the middle of the year, followed by growth… firm-wide NII approximately $94B.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital returns: Management aims to arrest growth of excess CET1; absent organic deployment, implies more buybacks, while avoiding predictable buyback guidance .
  • NII outlook: Closer to normalized NII; potential sequential growth in back half of 2025 if rates follow forwards; deposit pricing remains competitive .
  • Regulation: Preference for holistic, data-driven frameworks; supervisory transparency improvements welcomed; G-SIB seasonality manageable .
  • Loan growth: Despite improved sentiment, limited immediate C&I loan demand; capital markets remain wide open; acquisition finance could inflect with M&A .
  • Macro risk: Unemployment remains the primary credit driver; worst-case stagflation would pressure credit across categories (Jamie Dimon) .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global (EPS and revenue) were unavailable during this request due to API rate limits, so beats/misses versus estimates cannot be determined at this time. Values would ordinarily be retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • CIB resilience and Markets strength continue to underpin earnings quality; IB fee momentum and broad Markets contribution support medium-term revenue visibility .
  • Card credit normalization is ongoing; watch NCO trajectory against 2025 ~3.6% guidance and consumer unemployment trends .
  • NII headwinds from lower rates and margin compression should trough mid-2025; deposit stabilization and reinvestment actions are mitigating factors .
  • Capital return likely remains a catalyst: CET1 15.7% and management intent to prevent excess growth imply buybacks if deployment opportunities are limited .
  • AWM scale and net inflows provide durable fee growth; client assets and AUM trends support earnings diversification .
  • Expense trajectory (~$95B in 2025) reflects growth investments (auto leasing, capital markets, tech, advisors) and inflation; monitor operating leverage as revenue normalizes .
  • Regulatory environment is trending more transparent; firm is positioned with a fortress balance sheet to navigate scenarios and deploy capital prudently .