KI
KADANT INC (KAI)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2026 primary documents (8‑K 2.02 earnings press release and earnings call transcript) were not available in the document catalog or company newsroom; consensus forecasts imply revenue of ~$270.9M and EPS of ~$2.205 for Q1 2026, based on 4 estimates from S&P Global* [GetEstimates].
- Kadant exited 2025 with strong aftermarket momentum and mixed capital equipment trends: Q3 2025 revenue was $271.6M with 69% parts/consumables and gross margin 45.2%, while adjusted EPS was $2.59 .
- Management raised FY 2025 revenue guidance to $1.036–$1.046B (maintained adjusted EPS $9.05–$9.25); Q4 2025 guide: revenue $270–$280M, GAAP EPS $1.91–$2.11, adjusted EPS $2.05–$2.25 .
- Tariffs and capital-project timing remain central narratives; mgmt detailed mitigation levers (surcharges, supplier shifts) and flagged higher 2025 SG&A and net interest expense following acquisitions .
- Dividend declared $0.34/share payable Feb 5, 2026 may support near-term investor income while the mix normalizes toward capital shipments into 2026 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record aftermarket parts revenue supported margins; Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin 21.4% and gross margin 45.2% as parts/consumables reached 69% of revenue .
- Management delivered a guidance upgrade on FY 2025 revenue, incorporating acquisitions while maintaining adjusted EPS range, signaling confidence in execution and demand normalization .
- CEO emphasized operational discipline and customer value delivery despite soft capital demand: “our businesses exceeded our earnings expectations led by record revenue performance in our aftermarket parts business” .
What Went Wrong
- Capital equipment demand remained sluggish with bookings timing pushed out; Q3 2025 bookings were $238.4M (down ~1%) with softness concentrated in Industrial Processing .
- Tariffs introduced cost uncertainty and elevated SG&A; mgmt raised 2025 SG&A to ~28.7–29.0% of revenue and net interest expense to ~$14.4M after acquisitions .
- Sequential margin sensitivity to capital mix was noted; mgmt guided gross margin down to ~44–44.5% for Q4 2025 as mix moderates away from parts .
Financial Results
Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (Q3 2025): “Despite a persistent softness in demand for capital equipment and continued global trade uncertainties, our businesses executed well… led by record revenue performance in our aftermarket parts business.”
- CEO (Q2 2025): “Strong bookings, particularly notable in the current environment of evolving trade policies, demonstrate our customers’ preference for Kadant equipment and technologies…”
- CFO (Q3 2025): “Our third quarter 2025 adjusted EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.36 due to higher‑than‑expected aftermarket parts revenue at our industrial processing segment.”
Q&A Highlights
- Parts/consumables mix by segment rose YoY (Flow Control 74% vs 70%; Industrial Processing 76% vs 67%) supporting margins and EPS beat .
- Bookings timing: several large fiber processing projects pending; strict booking requirements (down payments/LOCs) can push orders into early 2026, affecting revenue timing .
- Tariff impact details: steel price shock addressed; China import/export exposure remains; levers include surcharges and supply reorientation; goal is neutrality over time .
- Backlog and composition: Q3 backlog $273M,
60% capital ($163M); Clyde backlog marker “use ~$30M” and margin profile fits Industrial Processing . - Mix/GM outlook: parts moderation into 2026 as capital normalizes, implying gross margin drift from mid‑46% to mid‑44% range as mix shifts .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2026 consensus: Revenue ~$270.9M; EPS ~$2.205; EBITDA ~$54.1M; 4 estimates each for revenue and EPS* [GetEstimates].
- Relative to recent actuals, the Q1 2026 revenue/EPS imply continuity with Q3 2025 run‑rate, but margin sensitivity hinges on parts vs capital mix and acquisition effects (Clyde/Babini dilutive to Q4 adjusted EPS with interest costs) .
- Estimate revisions may need to reflect: tariff mitigation pace, fiber processing order conversion timing, and SG&A/interest trajectories highlighted by mgmt .
Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Aftermarket strength continues to anchor margins and cash generation; monitor parts mix vs capital normalization for Q1 2026 .
- Capital project timing is the swing factor; conversion of fiber processing orders will dictate revenue/EPS cadence into 1H 2026 .
- Tariff exposure persists but is being mitigated; watch for updates on surcharges, supplier shifts, and potential FX impacts .
- Acquisitions expand Industrial Processing scope; near‑term EPS dilutive with financing costs but strategic fit noted by mgmt .
- Expect margins to moderate if capital mix rises; Q4 2025 guide implies GM ~44–44.5%—a useful marker for Q1 2026 modeling .
- Backlog remains healthy; Q3 2025 backlog $273M with ~60% capital, offering visibility as projects release .
- Dividend support ($0.34 payable Feb 5, 2026) adds yield while investors await capital cycle recovery .