Kirby - Q3 2023
October 26, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, and welcome to the Kirby Corporation 2023 third quarter earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. We ask that you limit your question to one question and one follow-up. To ask a question, you press star one one on your telephone, and then you'll hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Kurt Niemietz, Kirby's VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Kurt Niemietz (VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer)
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me today are David Grzebinski, Kirby's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Raj Kumar, Kirby's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. A slide presentation for today's conference call, as well as the earnings release, which was issued earlier today, can be found on our website. During this conference call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings press release and are also available on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financials. As a reminder, statements contained in this conference call with respect to the future are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's reasonable judgment with respect to future events.
Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors. A list of these risk factors can be found in Kirby's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and in our other filings made with the SEC from time to time. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Thank you, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we announced third quarter revenue of $765 million and earnings per share of $1.05. This compares to 2022 third quarter revenue of $746 million and earnings of $0.65 per share. Both of our segments continued to perform well during the quarter, despite facing some temporary challenges. In marine transportation, pricing on spot and term contracts continued to benefit from strong demand and limited availability of barges, but results were impacted by the Illinois River lock closure and several refinery outages during the quarter. Distribution and services delivered improved margins, even as we continued to work through supply chain challenges during the quarter. Overall, our earnings increased sequentially and year-over-year, and we continued to repurchase stock during the quarter.
In inland marine transportation, our third quarter results reflected continued improvement in pricing, partially offset by the headwinds from the Illinois River closure that I mentioned, as well as the refinery outages in the quarter. From a demand standpoint, customer activity remained strong in the quarter, with barge utilization running in the high 80% range. Spot market prices continued to progress higher and were up in the mid-single digits sequentially and in the mid-teens range year-over-year. Term contract prices also renewed at higher rates, with high single-digit increases versus a year ago. Margins were in the high teens. In coastal, market fundamentals accelerated with solid customer demand and limited availability of large capacity vessels, resulting in spot prices increasing in the mid-single digits sequentially and in the low 30% range year-over-year.
During the quarter, our barge utilization in coastal continued to run in the mid-90% range. As mentioned before, our results this year are being impacted by planned shipyard maintenance on several large vessels, which led to an overall decrease in third quarter coastal revenues and operating margins just below breakeven. In distribution and services, demand remains strong across our markets, with steady levels of service and repair work, combined with high levels of backlog. In our commercial and industrial market, overall demand remains solid across our different businesses, with growth coming from the marine repair, power generation, and on-highway sectors. In oil and gas, revenues were down as we continued to manage through persistent supply chain issues, particularly with electrical and electronic componentry, which delayed many new equipment deliveries during the quarter. We continue to work diligently to manage these supply challenges.
Even with the decline in revenues, operating income in oil and gas was up both sequentially and year-over-year, driven by favorable product mix and operating efficiencies. Overall, revenues were up 7% year-over-year, and operating margins improved to just under 10%. In summary, our third quarter results reflected ongoing strength in market conditions for both segments. Despite the temporary headwinds in the quarter, the inland market is strong, and rates continue to push higher, helping to offset lingering inflation. While our coastal revenue remains challenged near-term by planned shipyards, industry-wide supply-demand dynamics remain very favorable. Our barge utilization is good, and we are realizing healthy rate increases. Steady demand in distribution and services is contributing to further growth in the segment, and while supply chain bottlenecks are expected, the outlook for the market is strong.
I'll talk more about our outlook later, but first, I'll turn the call over to Raj to discuss the third quarter segment results and the balance sheet.
Raj Kumar (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter of 2023, Marine Transportation segment revenues were $430 million, and operating income was $64 million, with an operating margin of 15%. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, total marine revenues decreased by $3 million or 1%, while operating income increased $22 million or 52%. Increased pricing and improved operating efficiencies in the inland market were partially offset by lower inland utilization due to the Illinois River closure, some refinery outages, and coastal shipyards. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, total marine revenues, inland and coastal together, increased 1%, while operating income was flat. Looking at the inland business in more detail, the inland business contributed approximately 82% of segment revenue. Average barge utilization was in the high 80% range for the quarter.
With the reopening of the Illinois River, our utilization has moved into the low 90% range as we begin the fourth quarter. Long-term inland marine transportation contracts, or those contracts with a term of one year or longer, contributed approximately 55% of revenue, with 66% from time charters and 34% from contracts of affreightment. Tight market conditions contributed to spot market rates increasing sequentially in the mid-single digits and in the mid-teens range year-over-year. Term contracts that renewed during the third quarter were on average, up in the high single digits compared to the prior year. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, inland revenues increased by 2%, primarily due to higher term and spot contract pricing.
Inland revenues were up 1% compared to the second quarter of 2023, as higher pricing was partially offset by lower utilization, given the Illinois River closure. Inland operating margins were in the high teens during the quarter, with the benefit of higher pricing, partially offset by lower utilization. Now moving to the coastal business. Coastal revenues decreased 13% year-over-year and were up 1% sequentially, as downtime from planned shipyards was partially offset by higher contract prices and improved barge utilization. Overall, coastal had near breakeven operating margins as improved pricing was offset by increased shipyard days. The coastal business represented 18% of revenues for the marine transportation segment. Average coastal barge utilization was in the mid-90% range, which compares to the low- to mid-90% range in the third quarter of 2022.
During the quarter, the percentage of coastal revenue under term contracts was approximately 90%, of which approximately 90% were time charters. Average spot market rates were up in the mid-single digits sequentially, in the low thirties and in the low 30% range year-over-year, and prices on term contract renewals were up in the low double digits year-over-year. With respect to our tank barge fleet for both the inland and coastal businesses, we have provided a reconciliation of the changes in the third quarter, as well as projections for the remainder of 2023. This is included in our earnings call presentation posted on our website. At the end of the third quarter, the inland fleet had 1,071 barges, representing 23.6 million bbl of capacity.
On a net basis, we currently expect to end 2023 with a total of 1,073 inland barges, representing 23.6 million bbl of capacity, driven by a modest number of reactivations in the fourth quarter. Now I'll review the performance of the distribution and services segment. Revenues for the third quarter of 2023 were $335 million, with operating income of $33 million and an operating margin around 10%. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, the distribution and services segment saw revenues increase by $22.1 million, or 7%, with operating income increasing by $10.9 million or 49%. When compared to the second quarter of 2023, revenues decreased by $15 million or 4%, and operating income increased by $3 million or 11%.
On the commercial and industrial market, strong activity contributed to a 28% year-over-year and 17% sequential increase in revenues, with improved demand for equipment, parts, and service in our marine repair and on-highway businesses. Power generation was also up year-over-year. Overall, the commercial and industrial business represented approximately 63% of segment revenue and had an operating margin in the high single digits in the third quarter. In the oil and gas market, revenues were down 16% year-over-year and 27% sequentially. We continued to manage through supply chain bottlenecks, especially in our manufacturing business, which led to shipment delays in the quarter. Despite these issues, the manufacturing business experienced continued favorable trends in new orders and backlog, driven by our e-frac units and associated power generation equipment.
Overall, oil and gas represented approximately 37% of segment revenue in the third quarter and had operating margins in the low double digits. Now I'll turn to the balance sheet. As of September 30th, 2023, we had $42 million of cash, with total debt just over $1 billion. During the quarter, we increased our debt balance by $69 million, and our debt-to-cap ratio increased to 25.3%. During the quarter, we had net cash flow from operating activities of $96.3 million. We used cash flow and cash on hand to fund $104 million of capital expenditures, of which $50 million was related to maintenance of equipment, and the remainder was directed to growth CapEx in marine and e-frac.
We continued to return capital to shareholders in the quarter and repurchased $23.3 million of stock at an average price of around $80.31. As of September 30th, we had total available liquidity of approximately $451 million. With respect to cash flow, depending on the timing on working capital, we would likely expect to generate close to $475 million-$525 million of operating cash flow and $100 million-$150 million in free cash flow this year. We are committed to a balanced capital allocation approach, and we expect to use most of this free cash flow to continue to repurchase stock. I will now turn the call back to David to discuss the remainder of our outlook for the fourth quarter.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Thank you, Raj. We had a good quarter, with both our businesses performing well despite some temporary headwinds. Refinery activity remains at high levels, our barge utilization is strong in both inland and coastal, and rates are steadily increasing. While we expect some near-term issues in the fourth quarter related to low water conditions on the Mississippi River, increasing delay days due to normal seasonal weather, and high levels of shipyard activity in coastal, our outlook in the marine market remains strong. In distribution and services, despite ongoing supply chain constraints and delays, demand for our products and services is good, and we continue to receive new orders in manufacturing. Overall, we expect our businesses to deliver improved financial results in 2024.
While all of this is encouraging, we are mindful of challenges related to a slowing global economy, geopolitical unrest, and additional economic weakness due to high interest rates. Even with these uncertainties, we remain very positive and expect to drive strong cash flow from operations going forward. Diving into the businesses in more detail, I'll start with inland. Favorable conditions are expected to continue going forward, driven by the combination of high refinery and petrochemical plant utilization and minimal new barge construction across the industry. Kirby expects these strengths to be partially offset by increasing delay days due to normal seasonal weather that we generally see in the fourth quarter. We also expect the low water conditions on the Mississippi River to have an impact. Further, there are some inefficiencies remaining with some lock maintenance in Louisiana.
The company still expects further improvement in spot market prices, which currently represent approximately 45% of inland revenues. Current contracts are also expected to continue to set reset higher. Overall, fourth quarter inland revenues are expected to be roughly flat sequentially, with a modest improvement in margins, and we still expect to end the year close to 20%, if not at 20% margin. In the coastal market, conditions have tightened considerably, and the industry is close to supply and demand balance across the fleet. As we've discussed, our coastal revenues and operating margins continue to be impacted this year by an approximate doubling of planned shipyard maintenance days and ballast water treatment installations on certain vessels. Kirby expects steady customer demand through the balance of the year, with barge utilization in the low- to mid-90% range.
Rates are expected to continue improving as the availability of equipment is tight across the industry. For the fourth quarter, coastal revenues are expected to be up in the low- to mid-single digits compared to the 2023 third quarter as we continue to progress through major shipyards. However, there is some possibility of the shipyards extending into early 2024. Coastal operating margins are expected to be near breakeven to low single digits on a full year basis. Moving to distribution and services, steady demand in commercial and industrial, and favorable oil field fundamentals are expected to continue throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. In commercial and industrial, steady markets are expected to remain in the fourth quarter, with incremental activity in power generation, marine repair, and on the highway.
This activity should be partially offset by lower rental equipment activity as the hurricane season winds down. That will create a slight headwind to margins. In the oil and gas market, despite the near-term volatility in commodity prices and rig counts, we expect continued demand for manufacturing as well as for OEM parts, products, and services. Within manufacturing, the company expects demand for environmentally friendly pressure pumping and e-frac power generation equipment to remain strong, with new orders and increased deliveries of new equipment for the remainder of the year and into 2024. Supply chain issues and long lead times are expected to persist in the near term, contributing to some volatility of deliveries and potentially shifting some deliveries from the fourth quarter into next year.
Overall, the company expects fourth quarter segment revenues to be up in the low- to mid-single digits sequentially, with lower operating margins impacted by mix and dropping into the mid- to high-single-digit range from the almost 10% range we had this quarter. To conclude, both our segments performed well during the quarter in the face of some temporary challenges, and our team executed well on near-term objectives as well as on our long-term strategy. Our balance sheet is very strong, and we expect to generate significant free cash flow in coming quarters, and we expect to use free cash flow for share repurchases, debt repayment, as well as opportunistic growth projects.
Although we see favorable markets continuing and expect our businesses will produce improving financial results as we head into 2024, we are closely monitoring the potential for a recession, as well as the potential short-term weather and low water related impacts in our marine business. Having said that, as we look long term, we are confident in the strength of our core businesses and our long-term strategy. Our marine businesses are in the early innings of a multiple year recovery, and demand remains solid in distribution and services despite recent macro headwinds. We intend to continue capitalizing on strong market fundamentals and driving value for the shareholders. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Also, as a reminder, we ask that you please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Ben Nolan of Stifel. Ben, your line is open.
Ben Nolan (Managing Director of Research)
Thank you. Good morning, David and Raj. So...
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Hey, good morning, Ben.
Ben Nolan (Managing Director of Research)
Hi. So for my first question, I wanted to ask a little bit on the inland side, well, actually, inland and coastal. We've gone through a number of years now with very little in the way of ordering activity, and I know that you guys have been pretty vocal about saying the economics for new equipment still, you know, don't line up. But at some point, the industry is going to need some replacement CapEx. Can you maybe put a little color around that and how you think about it with respect to your own fleet?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah, Ben, yeah, thanks for the question, and good morning. Yeah, look, the cost of new equipment, as you know, is pretty much doubled in the last five years. You know, steel prices are up, labor input costs are up, paint up, you know, just skilled labor for welding is up. You know, radars and electronics on boats are up. Just about everything, you know, high performance line on the tow boats are up, you know, 60%-70%. So, you know, all the input costs have gone up.
So if you take, like, a two barge tow, you know, the $4 million per barge, you know, that, that's $8 million, and then you put a $6 million-$7 million dollar tow boat with it, you know, you're talking about $15 million worth of capital equipment for a two barge tow. And to get a 12% or a 10% type return, on that equipment, you'd need north of $13,000 a day now. So it doesn't make sense for anybody to build right now. Rates need to come up, and they need to keep going up.
You know, we're still fighting inflation, so I just don't see anybody jumping to build in this environment, until those rates start to really get up there, and that's when you'll start to see it. Now, the other part of the equation, as we talked before about, you know, just the cost of borrowing money right now has gone up a lot. You know, I would say it used to be about 3%-4% if you were using secured financing. Now, I would imagine, you know, a smaller company would have to pay north of 10% to get to borrow money, and then you're losing bonus depreciation.
So, you know, building equipment in that environment, you know, with the cost of debt being, you know, almost double-digit, it may be well above $13,000 a day to justify it. You know, it could be even higher, maybe $14,000. But you know, it's all about the cost picture. Now, that said, we are. You are seeing some equipment that was, you know, tied up during COVID come off the bank. Some of it will never come off the bank, but you'll see us reactivating these, probably, I think, Raj gave an estimate that we're reactivating a handful before year-end here. We're almost done reactivating our laid-up fleet.
But I would imagine as equipment continues to get tight, and you're not building a whole new set of equipment, people will, if the numbers can work, will start to bring some, some stuff off the bank. But, you know, that's only maybe 2%-3%, that could come off the bank, if that. It may already have been off the bank. So, it's a long way of saying I just don't see building for another year or two, you know, depending on how fast rates go. But, it, it's pretty in check right now. I think, I don't know, since we last updated you guys on the call here, you know, I think we said there were 22 barges being built this year. We got an update, and it's 27 barges.
You know, now retirements will be high this year. You know, with the maintenance Bubble, as you start to bring older equipment in for these big, heavy maintenance shipyards, you look at the cost, and you say, "Well, I'm not gonna put $2 million into a 25-year-old barge. I'll just retire it." So you could see retirements be a little more than we expected. You know, it could be north of 75, but we don't have a good handle on that. We only know what we're retiring. It's hard to say what the industry is retiring. So that's a long, drawn-out answer, Ben, but I don't see anybody building for a couple of years based on the economics right now.
Raj Kumar (EVP and CFO)
Ben, I'll just add, on the coastal side, you know, to David's point, we're not seeing any building. And if you were to build, the lead times are, you know, the lead times are gonna take you into the 2027 time frame.
Ben Nolan (Managing Director of Research)
Right. Well, yeah, I appreciate that. You guys answered a lot of questions in that one question there. My second one, though, if I could move over to the D&S side. It seems like some of these supply chain issues are persistent, and we're not hearing that as much from other places. I'm curious if that is pushing sales into next year and sort of what line of sight you have for the D&S business going into 2024. Appreciating that you haven't given guidance on that yet, but just looking to understand how you feel about sort of what's already in the bag for next year. And then maybe, David, I know that you and I have talked about the VoltaGrid stuff a little bit.
Curious how that is playing out and if maybe you could give a little color on that within D&S.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Sure. Yeah, supply chain, I don't want to overstate the supply chain woes, but, it's almost, it's hit and miss, you know? We can have problems getting variable frequency drives, and then it'll clear up for a while, then it may come back. We might have problems getting some electric componentry, and then it'll start to deliver. But, yeah, it has improved in some areas, and then, you know, a few months later, it goes back again, the other way. You know, I will say this, you know, some of our engine suppliers, for example, we can't get engines until 2025, in some cases. So, there are still some heavy headwinds there. That said, we are seeing on parts for engines, that's getting better.
You know, we do a lot of repair work, as you know, Ben, so we are seeing some improvement there. I would just say it's bouncing around. It is on the margin better than it has been, but it's still impacting us a bit. You know, we did say in our prepared remarks that you could see some shipments in the fourth quarter ship into 2024. But by and large, you know, it's more of the same, I guess, is what I would say, in terms of supply chain and shipments. And you'll see it bounce around a bit.
Ben Nolan (Managing Director of Research)
Okay. And on VoltaGrid, if you can...
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah, VoltaGrid, you know, for those not familiar, VoltaGrid's one of our customers. We don't like to talk about direct customers, but they provide power by the hour, not only to the frack space, but to other places in industry, and we build a lot of their equipment. They continue to expand and to build. We continue to get orders from them. They're a world-class organization and growing well. Probably best for me not to give you much more detail than that.
Ben Nolan (Managing Director of Research)
All right. I appreciate it. Thanks, Dave and Raj.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Thanks, Ben.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one one on your phone. Stand by for our next caller, please. Our next call comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America. Ken, your line is open.
Speaker 8
Hi, thank you. This is [Nathan Donlan] for Ken Hoexter. Congratulations on the great quarter. My question's on the inland marine side. So seeing that ton miles are down 3Q 11% on partly some of the factors the teams mentioned, I noticed the call-out on the Mississippi water levels and some of the lock delay days based off of weather. Just wanting to get a scale on what that represents in terms of an operating challenge from a volume perspective. Should we assume somewhat of a similar level of decline this quarter versus the last?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah. Hey, good morning, Nathan. Thanks, thanks for the questions. Yeah, your note on the ton miles is a good one, and we should elaborate on that. As you know, the Illinois was closed, and if you think about what we do on the Illinois, it's usually taking barges, you know, from the Gulf Coast all the way up Illinois, and sometimes into Chicago. That's a long journey and generates a lot of ton miles. And when the Illinois is closed, you know, there's a lot less ton miles just from that. The other thing is crude. We move a lot of crude condensate from the Northeast, from the Utica and the Marcellus, and those are pretty gassy fields.
And so when gas prices are low, they're not, not producing as much condensate, and so we don't get those crude moves all the way from the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf Coast, so that's fewer ton miles. That said, we're still pretty busy. As you heard, our utilization was good. So if you look at revenue per ton mile, it's up. You know, that's because we're busy in other parts of the system. You know, we have something we call a cross channel, which may be just taking a barge from one part of Houston to another part of Houston, which you know, could tie up the barge for days. But there's a lot of revenue, but not many miles in that. So you got to be careful with ton miles and revenue per ton mile.
And as you correctly noted, the Illinois had an impact on that. Now, the Illinois is back open. We started deploying barges in October, so that's starting to pick back up. You know, we're still impacted because it takes a while to get all that equipment moving again and get it upriver. But we do have lock delays. There's a major lock in the New Orleans area that's closed, and it's causing routes to be re-rerouted and diverted, and that's adding some back, some delays into the system. But we're working through that. That's normal. I would say what is different is the low water on the Mississippi. You know, it got to a record low again.
That said, we got some rain in the Ohio Valley just last week, which may help out a bit. You know, in the past, I think when we had record lows, it cost us about $0.02-$0.03, $0.02-$0.05 in a quarter. This should be less than that, but it's hard to say right now. We're watching it. You know, the order of magnitude is probably in that $0.02, well, it's gonna be in that range, $0.02-$0.05, but feels like this should be less than that, but given the recent rain, hard to say. You know, it's trying to predict weather and see where that all plays out. Hopefully, that answered the question, Nathan.
Speaker 8
No, that does. Thanks, thanks a bunch, Dave And I guess my next question is just a sort of a little more big picture. Trying to understand how the team's looking at the contract exposure side of things, particularly in inland. I see that you've mentioned that roughly, it's currently more or less around half the book right now, but historically, this could trend well into the eighties. I mean, we, you know, we're talking about historically tight vessel capacity and strong demand. Could we see this sort of locking in of current rates, kind of ramp gradually higher into the next couple of years?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah, no, good, good observation here. You know, as you've noted, we're about 55% term and 45% spot. You know, I would just say, directionally, we don't mind having a big spot exposure. We do that kind of on purpose, especially in a rising rate environment. You know, sequentially, we saw inland rates up mid-single digits. Year-over-year, spot rates were up mid-teens. So, you know, we're enjoying our spot position. I will say this, to your point, customers are they're well aware of the maintenance bubble. And, you know, we're seeing a little push to extending and maybe terming up more equipment or getting longer spot deals. You know, we call it a spot deal, something less than a year.
You know, instead of 1-month deal, they might be doing 3-month or 6-month deals now. They're starting to get a little nervous about this maintenance bubble, because the spot market is very, very tight right now.
Speaker 8
Makes sense. Thanks for the time, Dave.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much. One moment for our next caller. Our next call comes from Jack Atkins of Stephens Inc. Jack, your line is open.
Jack Atkins (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Hey, good morning, Jack.
Jack Atkins (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
So, David, I'd like to maybe go back to Ben's first question, if I could. It was sort of a capacity question, but maybe ask it in a different way. I mean, I think historically, you know, there's been a lot of focus, you know, around, you know, new barge construction and, you know, relative to retirements and the impact that could have on capacity or not. Yeah, you know, but I guess one big piece of capacity is also the ability to get mariners to crew your boats. And could you maybe talk about that as a capacity constraint?
Because what we're hearing through the channel is, you know, that's as challenging in terms of hiring qualified folks to operate your boats as, you know, maybe being able to build a barge. So that's a limiter for capacity as well, but I wanted to maybe get your thoughts on that.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
No, I mean, that's an excellent point. Horsepower, as you know, is how we move the barges, and we've got to crew these vessels. And we've seen a very, very tight labor market. It's been hard to get crews. You know, fortunately, Kirby has got our own school, so we anticipated some of this and started the school basically almost two years ago, ramping up even as COVID was going on. We're doing okay. We're short mariners, I'll be honest, we're short mariners, but we're able to crew our vessels right now. A lot of mariners working a little overtime to help do that, which is good. They're good team players, but it is absolutely a factor in the tightness in the market.
There is just not a lot of available horsepower, which, which is making it really tight. So you've got tight barge, you know, availability and tight boat availability, and that just as you, as you would imagine, makes it even more difficult to, to get moves going. So, thanks for bringing it up. It's a good point. We don't talk about it a lot, but it is a major factor. And that's part of the inflation picture, right? I mean, there's some labor inflation. We've been dealing with that, and part of it is because we're short mariners in the whole ecosystem.
Jack Atkins (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. Okay. No, that makes sense. I just wanted to kind of get your thoughts on that piece. And then I guess just, you know, as we kind of think about the bigger picture, you know, this is maybe a two-part question, but both as relates to sort of your fourth quarter outlook and then kind of longer term going into 2024. You know, I guess, you know, when you think about relative to three months ago, has the fourth quarter outlook changed at all? And if so, is that really kind of tied purely to the water levels, or is there anything else going on there in terms of, you know, customer demand?
Maybe that'll give you a chance to talk about, you know, you know, just the output that you're seeing from some of your key customer groups within inland.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
No, the fourth quarter outlook hasn't changed a lot. If anything, it's got a little better, because-
Jack Atkins (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
We're tighter, we're tighter than we, I mean, you always deal with weather in the fourth quarter, and, you know, we're starting to see it in, as you know, Jack, fog is as bad as low water. It's actually worse because Mississippi is only about 25% of our, 20%-25% of our volume. But the Gulf Coast, where we're very active, you know, a fog day can really bog down the fleet, and we always see that in the fourth quarter. That said, weather does tighten up utility too, right? I mean, you don't, you're just not moving as efficiently, so it does tighten up utility. I would say, you know, if anything, it's as expected, maybe marginally better, just because we're so tight on spot now that Illinois' opened back up.
The low river, you know, that's a little bit of a headwind because you have to run lower drafts, you have to be careful and wait for dredges and things like that. So, yeah, it's all in our outlook for now.
But I think what's important is we're heading into, you know, a contract renewal period in the fourth quarter. As you know, that's usually a pretty heavy contract renewal time, and the market's tight. Our customers are sophisticated. They know it's tight. They know there's this maintenance bubble's there. So we're pretty energized about the outlook. You know, it's too early to talk about 2024 yet, but it certainly feels good going into the major contract renewals right now.
Jack Atkins (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you again for the time, guys. Really appreciate it.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Thanks, Jack.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your phone. Our next call comes from John Daniel of Daniel Energy Partners. John, your line is open.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Hey, David, thank you for including me.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Hey, John.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
I got just one question on the environmental frac equipment. Would you, would you characterize the interest, not orders, the interest, as accelerating or stable right now? And then also-
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Is it coming from a broader customer base, or is it the same customers?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
It is broader.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Okay.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
It is broader. And I would say accelerating may be too strong of a word, but improving, you know? I wouldn't say accelerating because that makes it sound like it's a huge ramp, but-
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Right
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
It is improving. The interest is improving. I mean, John, you know this better than anybody, that the efficiencies you get with e-frac are so pronounced and so good for not only our customers, the pressure pumpers, but the E&P companies.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Sure.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
I mean, the savings is there. And you know, obviously, everybody likes the ESG benefits, but you know, the operational savings is so significant. And you know, I think, and you should tell us because you know the customers as well as we do, but I think you're just going to see continued building of e-frac and conventional frac, you won't see much of going forward in terms of new builds.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
No, I, I tend to agree. There's a lot of stuff that needs to be replaced out there.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah. Well, the only other thing I would say on, on, you know, you say accelerating, but, you know, we're seeing more, some interest internationally now too, on frac, on e-frac.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Right.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
You know, I would say that's kind of new to the game.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Would you be willing to share which markets are the most interested? I understand if you don't want to.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah. Well, I think you do.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
I'll move on to the next question.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
It's the Middle East. It's the Middle East.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Yeah. Okay, fair enough. All right. On, on the supply chain constraints, the electronic components, do you have any more color you could add as to, like, what's really driving that? Are they diverting supply to other sectors, or they just can't make it fast enough?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah, it's the latter. They can't make it fast enough. And, you know, we buy. I don't wanna name the vendor because that-
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Sure
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Would not be nice. But we, we buy variable frequency drives, for example, from, from Scandinavian area, and it, they just can't make it fast enough, which is an interesting dilemma. You know, sometimes you get enclosures that, that back up, and that's, you know, you, you would think that's, you don't wanna call it dumb iron, but you, you know, you would think enclosures wouldn't be a problem, but that gets backed up, you know?
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Interesting. Okay.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
All kinds of different electric componentry and things around electrics, it seems to be backing up. And John, you know this, if you look at, you know, all the data centers going up, and now you got things like ChatGPT and AI, and just we've seen another surge for backup power-
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Right.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Whether it's at data centers or whatnot. So, you know, we use that same equipment in generating electricity for the frac spreads, so it's, there's just a lot of demand in the system, and you know, that's what's gone. And it's usually just electric or electronic related.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Okay. Well, that's very helpful, and I appreciate you letting me ask some questions today. Thank you.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Sure, John. Thanks. Take care.
John Daniel (Founder and Managing Partner)
Yes, sir.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Greg Wasikowski of Webber Research and Advisory. Greg, your line is open.
Greg Wasikowski (Senior Analyst, Associate Partner, and Co-founder)
Hey, David and Raj. Good morning. How are you guys doing?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Hey, good morning, Greg.
Greg Wasikowski (Senior Analyst, Associate Partner, and Co-founder)
Hey, so I wanted to check in on that chunk of term contracts that rolls over in Q4. I know it's early days here, but I wanted to see how would you characterize your initial expectations and your level of confidence when looking into Q4 right now, say, versus your expectations and level of confidence last year and the year before?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah, well, last year, we didn't see, you know, we were still recovering a little bit from COVID, so this year's much, much better environment than last year. Last year was good, don't get me wrong, but we were still "Hey, is COVID really gone? You know, is the market really coming back? Is, you know, are the volumes on the river coming back?" So, and we did see it come back, and of course, you know, first quarter of this year, we had some pretty tough weather conditions and whatnot. So, I would say contract renewals feel better this year. I want to use the word significantly better, but they certainly feel better. It's a tight market. This maintenance bubble is real.
Our customers have lots of volumes to move, and, you know, you can look at the share buybacks among our customer base, and it tells you how good they're doing, right? So, the barge cost to them in terms of, you know, moving refined products or chemicals is nothing, and they should be generous, so.
Greg Wasikowski (Senior Analyst, Associate Partner, and Co-founder)
Understood. Okay. Thanks, David. And then, can you talk a little bit more about your power generation fleet in Q3 and Q4 so far? I'm just curious how demand compared to last year relative to the severity and the frequency of storms of last year versus this year. You know, maybe remind us operationally, do customers essentially have standing annual rental agreements regardless of what the storm activity really is? Or would, you know, increased storm activity drive demand higher real-time within the quarter?
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Yeah, every customer is a little different, Greg. It's usually a standby fee during hurricane season. And then if we deploy, you know, the rates go up a lot. It was a mild hurricane season this year, thank goodness, because that impacts our marine business. But we kept pretty busy with the rental fee because, you know, everybody has gotten smart about putting stuff on standby and paying us for it. But as we exit the hurricane season, you know, that tapers off a bit, as you would expect. You know, I would just tell you that the general theme is this: every company knows they need power 24/7, and they've gotten smarter and smarter and smarter about having backup power options.
You know, we do also sell backup power all over the place. We sell backup power generation equipment to data centers. We sell it to banks and financial institutions. We sell it to hospitals, and that's part of what's helping KDS do better, is our power generation business and manufacturing or assembling that kind of equipment and delivering it to institutions that really don't wanna take a chance with not having power.
Greg Wasikowski (Senior Analyst, Associate Partner, and Co-founder)
Yeah. Got it. Okay. Thanks, David. Hope you're doing well with your Astros.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
Well, you know the answer to that question, but at least it's another Texas team that's in. Yeah.
Greg Wasikowski (Senior Analyst, Associate Partner, and Co-founder)
That's right. That's right.
David Grzebinski (President and CEO)
All right. Thanks, Greg.
Greg Wasikowski (Senior Analyst, Associate Partner, and Co-founder)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder to ask questions, please press star one one on your phone. As there is no further questions, this concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Kurt Niemietz for any closing remarks.
Kurt Niemietz (VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer)
Thank you, Corey, and thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. If there's any follow-up questions, please reach out to me anytime today.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The conference is now concluded, and thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.