Executive Summary

Q1 2025 EPS of $1.33 beat S&P Global consensus $1.28*; revenue of $785.7M missed $816.0M consensus as weather-driven delay days rose 50% sequentially and 15% YoY in Inland, dampening throughput . Consensus values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.
Marine Transportation margins held up: segment margin 18.2% (vs. 17.5% YoY) with Inland “around 20%” despite adverse conditions; Coastal utilization stayed mid/high-90% with term renewals in the mid-20% range .
Distribution & Services mixed: revenue down 7% YoY on supply delays and oil & gas softness, but operating margin improved to 7.3% and oil & gas operating income +123% YoY on e-frac and cost controls .
Outlook maintained: management reaffirmed 2025 EPS growth of 15–25% YoY on the call; expects Inland full-year operating margins to average 200–300 bps higher and Coastal margins to mid-teens; 2025 CFO $620–$720M; capex $280–$320M .
Capital returns/M&A optionality: $101.5M of Q1 buybacks (avg $101.19) plus $23M through 4/30 (avg $91.18); acquired 14 barges and 4 high-horsepower boats for $97.3M; majority of free cash flow earmarked for buybacks absent large M&A—environment for consolidation “more constructive” per management .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Marine pricing and utilization stayed firm: Inland utilization in the low/mid-90% with spot up low single digits QoQ/high single digits YoY; term renewals mid-single digits; segment margin 18.2% with Inland “around 20%” despite elevated delays .
Coastal momentum building: utilization mid/high-90%; term renewals up mid-20%; management expects sequential margin improvement as heavy shipyards wind down and aims to push Coastal margins above Inland over time .
D&S operational discipline: despite oil & gas revenue -18% YoY, operating income +123% YoY on e-frac deliveries and cost control; Commercial & Industrial revenue +12% YoY with operating income +23% .

Quotes

“Overall, margins were right around 20% despite the poor operating conditions.” — CEO David Grzebinski .
“We are reaffirming [2025 EPS growth].” — CEO, on 15–25% EPS growth target .
“We expect a significant step up in [Coastal] revenues and margins through the remainder of the year.” — CEO .

What Went Wrong

Weather and navigation headwinds: delay days up 50% sequentially and 15% YoY, slowing transit times and impacting contracts of affreightment .
D&S power generation supply delays: power gen revenue -23% YoY in Q1 as OEM lead times pushed deliveries; margins mid-to-high single digits .
Oil & gas and free cash flow: conventional oil & gas remains “exceptionally soft”; free cash flow was negative in Q1 (-$42.2M) due to capex and a ~$122M working capital build tied to project growth; company expects unwind later in 2025 .

Financial Results

Overall performance vs prior periods and estimates (USD Millions, except per-share)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Consensus (Q1 2025)*
Revenue	$808.0	$802.3	$785.7	$816.0*
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.19	$0.74	$1.33	$1.278*
Adjusted EPS ($)	—	$1.29	—	—
EBITDA	$162.6	$172.3 (Adj.)	$174.3	—

Consensus values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Marine Transportation Revenue ($M)	$475.4	$466.8	$476.1
Marine Transportation Operating Margin (%)	17.5%	18.4%	18.2%
Distribution & Services Revenue ($M)	$332.6	$335.5	$309.5
Distribution & Services Operating Margin (%)	6.6%	8.0%	7.3%

KPIs (Inland)

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Ton Miles (mm)	3,304	3,220	3,329
Revenue/Ton-Mile (cents)	11.7	11.9	11.8
Towboats (avg)	286	281	291
Delay Days	3,507	2,681	4,029
Avg Fuel Cost ($/gal)	$2.82	$2.33	$2.57

Balance sheet / cash flow highlights

Net cash from operating activities: $36.5M; Capex: $78.7M; Free cash flow: -$42.2M .
Cash: $51.1M; Total debt: $1.10B; Debt-to-cap: 24.8%; Liquidity: $334.2M .

Estimate comparison detail (Q1 2025)

EPS: $1.33 vs $1.28* — beat by ~$0.05; Revenue: $785.7M vs $816.0M* — miss by ~$30.3M. Actuals: . Consensus: *S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q4 2024)	Current Guidance (Q1 2025)	Change
EPS Growth	FY 2025	15%–25% YoY	Reaffirmed 15%–25% YoY (on call)	Maintained
Inland Revenue	FY 2025	Mid to high single-digit growth	Mid to high single-digit growth	Maintained
Inland Operating Margin	FY 2025	Avg +200–300 bps for full year; Q1 lowest	Avg +200–300 bps for full year from Q1 levels	Maintained
Coastal Revenue	FY 2025	High single to low double-digit growth	High single to low double-digit growth	Maintained
Coastal Operating Margin	FY 2025	Mid-teens	Mid-teens	Maintained
D&S Revenue	FY 2025	Flat to slightly down	Flat to slightly down	Maintained
D&S Operating Margin	FY 2025	High single digits, slightly lower YoY	High single digits, slightly lower YoY	Maintained
Net Cash from Ops	FY 2025	$620–$720M	$620–$720M	Maintained
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	$280–$320M	$280–$320M	Maintained
Capital Allocation	FY 2025	Strong FCF; balanced returns	Majority of FCF for buybacks absent M&A	More explicit buyback tilt

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Trend
Inland pricing/renewals	Spot up low-to-mid single digits QoQ; term renewals high-single digits	Spot flat-to-down QoQ; term renewals high-single digits	Spot up low single digits QoQ/high single digits YoY; term renewals mid-single digits	Improving
Coastal shipyards/margins	Margins mid-teens; fewer shipyards QoQ	Heavy shipyards; margins low teens	Shipyard headwind winding down; sequential margin step-up expected	Improving
Power generation (D&S)	Orders strong; supply delays temper revenue	Power gen +36% YoY; backlog building	Orders/backlog strong; supply delays push deliveries; expect 2H benefit	Mixed near term; stronger 2H
Oil & Gas (D&S)	YoY up 19%; e-frac helping	Down YoY; conventional frac weak; e-frac offsets	Revenue -18% YoY; operating income +123% YoY on e-frac, cost control	Shifting mix to e-frac
Tariffs/macro	—	Cautious into 2025	Steel costs up; net tariff impact likely modest positive; watch demand risk	Net modest positive
M&A/Industry consolidation	—	—	Environment “more constructive”; focus on marine consolidation	Optionality rising

Management Commentary

“Our barge utilization is strong in both inland and coastal and rates continue to increase… we expect our businesses to deliver improving financial results as we move through the remainder of 2025.” — CEO .
“Inland margins will be up on average for the full year 200 to 300 basis points… we feel pretty good about that.” — CEO .
“We used $101.5 million to repurchase stock… our repurchases have continued in the second quarter with another $23 million… we are on track to generate cash flow from operations of $620 to $720 million in 2025.” — CFO .
“The environment is better than we’ve seen in the last 3 or 4 years [for acquisitions]… absent that, we’re going to deploy our free cash and buy back stock.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Reaffirmed 2025 EPS growth 15–25%: CEO explicitly confirmed guidance on Q&A despite not restating in the release .
Inland margins trajectory: Expect full-year +200–300 bps vs current levels; seasonal cadence typical with 3Q best; spot above term supports margin expansion .
Coastal recovery: Heavy 1Q shipyards behind; management expects sequential revenue/margin step-up through 2Q–3Q as assets return to service .
D&S backlog conversion: Engine OEM delays pushed projects to 3Q; expect stronger 2H shipments; mix matters (e-frac higher margin; data center standby thinner margin) .
Tariffs impact: Steel inflation raises newbuild costs, constraining supply; overall tariff effects “probably a small net positive”; potential short-term parts cost inflation .
M&A: Consolidation environment improving; Kirby logical acquirer of liquid marine assets; bid/ask spreads narrowing but timing unpredictable .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.33 vs $1.28* (beat); Revenue $785.7M vs $816.0M* (miss). Actuals: . Consensus values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Street likely lifts full-year EPS on margin resilience (Inland ~20%, Coastal improving), but may trim near-term revenue on D&S supply delays; commentary implies backend-loaded power generation deliveries should support 2H .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin resilience is the story: Inland near ~20% despite severe delays; Coastal inflecting as shipyards abate—positioning for sequential EPS/FCF improvement into 2H .
Rate/pricing tailwinds persist: Inland spot above term and renewals trending higher; Coastal term renewals up ~25%—supports mix/pricing uplift through 2025 .
D&S is a 2H setup: Power gen orders/backlog healthy with OEM constraints delaying revenue; expect backlog conversion later in 2025; oil & gas mix shifting toward higher-margin e-frac .
Capital deployment supportive: Active buybacks YTD and plan to allocate majority of FCF to repurchases absent sizable M&A; balance sheet at 24.8% debt-to-cap provides flexibility .
Watch macro/tariff dynamics: Steel inflation curbs newbarge supply—a structural positive; near-term demand risk from tariffs deemed manageable and potentially net positive .
Catalysts: Evidence of Coastal margin ramp in 2Q–3Q; D&S shipment acceleration/backlog conversion; Inland term repricing into 4Q; potential consolidation announcements .
Risk checks: Prolonged OEM delays in power gen, unexpectedly weak refinery utilization/chemical volumes, or labor inflation (mariner shortage) could temper near-term upside .

Notes: Consensus values marked * are retrieved from S&P Global. All other figures are sourced from company filings and transcripts as cited.

KIRBY CORP (KEX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary