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KIMCO REALTY CORP (KIM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Kimco delivered a clean beat on Q2 with FFO/share of $0.44 vs S&P Global consensus $0.426* and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.23 vs $0.165*, and modest top-line beat; management raised full-year 2025 FFO and net income guidance.
  • Property fundamentals remained strong: Same Property NOI grew 3.1% YoY; blended cash rent spreads reached 15.2% (7+ year high); small-shop occupancy set a company record at 92.2%.
  • Balance sheet/liquidity stayed conservative with >$2.2B immediate liquidity and no consolidated debt maturities until July 2026; $500M 5.30% notes issued, $240.5M note repaid, and 3.0M shares repurchased at $19.61.
  • Catalyst path: raised guidance (+FFO/+same-store), record small-shop occupancy, and a $66M SNO pipeline (+310 bps leased-to-economic gap) support near-term re-rate potential as commencements inflect in 2H.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Leasing power/pricing: Blended cash rent spreads of 15.2% (new: +33.8%; renewals: +9.6%), the highest in 7+ years; small-shop occupancy hit 92.2% (record). “We are well positioned to deliver FFO per share growth in excess of 5% for the second consecutive year.”
  • Visibility to growth: Leased vs. economic occupancy gap widened to 310 bps, with ~$66M ABR signed-not-opened; management expects 40% of SNO to commence in 2H, contributing ~$7M incremental rent (and ~$30M ABR collection in 2025).
  • Capital allocation/LIQ: Issued $500M at 5.30% (T+92), repaid $240.5M 3.85% note, ended with >$2.2B liquidity; opportunistic buyback (3.0M shares at $19.61).

What Went Wrong

  • Occupancy dip from bankruptcies: Pro-rata leased occupancy fell 40 bps sequentially to 95.4%, with a 66 bps drag from JOANN/Party City; management flagged ~$5M per quarter NOI impact in 2H before backfills fully ramp.
  • Higher interest expense: Consolidated interest expense rose $7.9M YoY, partially offsetting NOI gains; D&A also increased $8.2M.
  • Same Property NOI trend moderating vs Q1: Q2 SPNOI +3.1% YoY versus +3.9% in Q1; management still raised full-year SPNOI to “3.0% or better,” acknowledging 2H headwinds from bankruptcies before commencements inflect.

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Per-Share Metrics

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenues ($USD Millions)$525.4 $536.6 $525.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.23 $0.18 $0.23
FFO/share – Diluted ($)$0.42 $0.44 $0.44
Same Property NOI Growth YoY (%)4.5% 3.9% 3.1%
Pro-rata Leased Occupancy (%)96.3% 95.8% 95.4%

Operational KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025
Blended Cash Rent Spreads (comparable leases)13.3% (new: +48.7%; renewals: +8.7%) 15.2% (new: +33.8%; renewals: +9.6%)
Small-Shop Occupancy91.7% 92.2% (record)
Anchor Occupancy97.4% 96.7%
Leased vs Economic Occ. Gap (bps)290 bps; ~$60M SNO ABR 310 bps; ~$66M SNO ABR
Same Property NOI Growth YoY3.9% 3.1%
Credit Loss (% of pro-rata rental revenues)56 bps (Q1) 89 bps (Q2); 72 bps YTD
Grocery-Anchored ABR Mix85% achieved in Q1 86% (record)
Leases Signed / Sq Ft583 / 4.4M sq ft 506 / 2.7M sq ft

Q2 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$525.2 $523.9*+$1.3 (+0.2%)*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.23 $0.165*+$0.065*
FFO/share – Diluted ($)$0.44 $0.426*+$0.014*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Notes: CFO cited a one-time accounting benefit of ~$0.01 per share (JV conversion and below-market rent recapture), though core drivers remained portfolio NOI growth and structured investment income.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Income/shareFY 2025$0.70–$0.73 $0.74–$0.76 Raised
FFO/shareFY 2025$1.71–$1.74 $1.73–$1.75 Raised
Same Property NOI GrowthFY 2025+2.5% or better +3.0% or better Raised
Lease Termination Income ($M)FY 2025$6–$9 $9–$12 Raised
Total Acquisitions incl. Structured (net)FY 2025$100–$125M; shopping center cap rate 6–7%; structured yield 9–10% Unchanged Maintained
Interest income – other (cash on bal. sheet) ($M)FY 2025$6–$9 Unchanged Maintained
Redevelopment Spending ($M)FY 2025$100–$125 Unchanged Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY 2025$250–$300 Unchanged Maintained
Dividend per Common ShareQuarterly$0.25 (declared for June payment) $0.25 (payable Sep 19, 2025) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (prior)Q1 2025 (prior)Q2 2025 (current)Trend
Leasing spreads & small-shop occupancyNew lease spreads +35.4%; small-shop 91.7% New lease spreads +48.7%; small-shop 91.7% Blended +15.2% (7+ yr high); small-shop record 92.2% Improving
Grocery-anchored mixPortfolio strength highlighted; new acquisitions (Waterford Lakes) Achieved 85% ABR from grocery Grocery ABR 86% (record) Improving
AI/technology useNot emphasizedNot emphasizedAI used for lease abstraction, tenant prospecting, and lease administration to improve recoveries/collections Emerging Positive
Tariffs/macroCautious commentary around rates/cost of capital N/AEarly tariff concerns subsided; private capital demand strong; poised to go on offense with better cost of capital Stabilizing
Structured Investment ProgramActive (mezz loans) Net repayments; pipeline healthy Viable through cycles; ROFO/ROFR optionality; net positive investors LT Positive
Bankruptcies/watchlistN/AExpect impact from Party City, Big Lots JOANN/Party City largely re-leased/LOIs; occupancy trough in Q2 Nearing Resolution
Capital marketsATM executed; rating outlook positive Repaid $500M; rating outlook positive; buyback post-Q1 Issued $500M (T+92); repaid $240.5M; >$2.2B liquidity; buyback 3.0M shares Positive

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered FFO of $0.44 per share, +7.3% YoY… blended leasing spread of 15%… small-shop occupancy of 92.2%, an all-time high.” – CEO Conor Flynn
  • “We’re deploying AI in targeted high-impact areas… accelerating lease abstraction, enhancing small-shop prospecting, and streamlining early-stage redevelopment planning.” – CEO Conor Flynn
  • “We… repurchased 3 million shares at an average price of $19.61… completed a $500 million bond issuance at 5.3% (T+92)… ended with over $2.2 billion of liquidity.” – CFO Glenn Cohen
  • “We are raising our FFO per-share range to $1.73 to $1.75… and our full-year same-site NOI growth outlook to 3% or better.” – CFO Glenn Cohen

Q&A Highlights

  • 2H trajectory: SPNOI guide raised to 3%+ despite ~$5M per quarter 2H impact from JOANN/Party City; occupancy likely troughed in Q2 with strong back-half commencements.
  • Structured investments: Considered durable across cycles; guidance incorporates expected repayments; key differentiator via ROFO/ROFR for future acquisitions.
  • Backfill progress: >90% of JOANN/Party City boxes resolved via assigned/executed/LOI; recent multi-box deals with TJX executed in under 10 days; mark-to-market ~20% (JOANN) and ~15% (Party City).
  • Capital allocation: Opportunistic buyback at 9% FFO yield; will pivot among buybacks, ROFOs/JVs/structured loans depending on cost of capital vs private-market pricing.
  • Expense recoveries/operations: Using data/AI and scale to enhance recovery ratios and accelerate collections via lease administration transformation.

Estimates Context

  • Q2 beats vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $525.2M vs $523.9M*; GAAP EPS $0.23 vs $0.165*; FFO/share $0.44 vs $0.426*.
  • Prior quarter (Q1) also beat: Revenue $536.6M vs $521.7M*; GAAP EPS $0.18 vs $0.164*; FFO/share $0.44 vs $0.422*.
  • Estimate revisions likely: Raised FY FFO and SPNOI guidance and stronger SNO commencements suggest upward bias to 2H FFO cadence despite bankruptcy drag.

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality-led growth: Record small-shop occupancy and sector-leading rent spreads reinforce pricing power and underpin multi-quarter NOI growth.
  • Embedded 2H inflection: 310 bps leased-to-economic gap and $66M SNO pipeline provide line-of-sight to accelerating rent commencements, partially offsetting bankruptcy headwinds.
  • Repeatable outperformance: Two straight quarters of beats and raised 2025 guidance (FFO and SPNOI) bolster confidence in >5% FFO/share growth for a second year.
  • Capital flexibility: Termed out debt at tight spread (T+92), no maturities until mid-2026, >$2.2B liquidity; opportunistic buybacks when public/private spreads widen.
  • Optionality via structured investments: Deal flow with ROFO/ROFR creates a proprietary pipeline for fee-simple acquisitions and attractive risk-adjusted returns.
  • Watch list largely cleared: Party City/JOANN backfills are substantially resolved with higher rents, limiting further occupancy risk.
  • Medium-term thesis: Grocery-anchored concentration (86% ABR), limited new supply, and AI-enabled operating efficiencies support durable cash-flow growth across cycles.

Additional Detail

Transactions, Capital Markets, and Dividend

  • Sold Home Depot-anchored parcel in Santa Ana, CA for $49.5M; planning a 1031 exchange into a grocery-anchored asset with higher growth.
  • Issued $500M of 5.30% notes due 2036 (T+92); repaid $240.5M 3.85% unsecured note; ended with >$2.2B liquidity; repurchased 3.0M shares at $19.61.
  • Declared $0.25 quarterly dividend payable September 19, 2025.

Select Property/Leasing Updates

  • Nordstrom Rack to open at El Camino Promenade (Encinitas, CA) in 2026, enhancing tenant mix.
  • Puttshack opening at Dania Pointe in August enhances experiential draw of a key mixed-use asset.

All citations reference company filings, press releases, and earnings call transcript: 8-K/Ex. 99.1 Q2 2025 results and guidance –; Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 press releases for trend analysis – –; Q2 2025 call transcript for management commentary and Q&A –. Values marked with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.