Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
FFO per diluted share | FY 2024 | $1.60–$1.62 | $1.64–$1.65 | raised |
Same-site NOI growth | FY 2024 | 2.75%–3.25% | 3.25%+ | raised |
Interest income | FY 2024 | $13M–$15M | $20M–$22M | raised |
Investment guidance | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | $565M–$625M | no prior guidance |
Disposition outlook | FY 2024 | $300M–$350M | $250M–$300M | lowered |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Strong leasing environment, robust tenant demand, and high occupancy | Continually mentioned across prior calls, with consistent focus on high occupancy and tenant demand. | Kimco emphasized high demand, limited supply, and strong rent spreads, reaching a record occupancy of 96.4%. | Consistently strong across all periods |
Same-store NOI growth | Previously guided 2.75–3.25% (Q2) , 2.25–3% (Q1) , and achieved 2.4% for 2023 (Q4). Sentiment has alternated between optimism and caution each quarter. | Reported 3.3% same-site NOI growth; optimistic about rent commencements but cautious on credit loss. | Recurring focus; remains positive yet guarded |
Concerns about credit losses or tenant bankruptcies | Similar caution in Q2 , Q1 , and Q4 , but overall stable with few tenant exits. | Held at the low end of historical 75–100 bps range; muted bankruptcies offset by creditworthy re-leasing. | Ongoing caution but stable performance |
Outlook for acquisitions and development | Q2 showed optimism for 2H 2024 , Q1 optimism was dampened by sticky inflation , Q4 looked positive but acknowledged macro headwinds. | Shift to owned acquisitions (e.g., Waterford Lakes), maintaining disciplined underwriting; long-term residential options viewed conservatively. | More discipline and selectivity in Q3 |
RPT acquisition integration | Mentioned strongly in Q2 with 4.5% same-site NOI growth , Q1 had fast integration vs. Weingarten , and Q4 noted asset dispositions and synergies. | Continued success in synergy and occupancy gains; outperformed projections. | Ongoing progress, consistently referenced |
2025 debt maturities and potential higher interest expenses | No mention in Q2, Q1, or Q4 about 2025 maturities or higher interest expenses. | New discussion of $290M in 2025 maturities; plan to use revolver and cash to address them. | Newly introduced in Q3 |
Outsized growth from limited retail supply | Q2 briefly cited limited supply. Not specifically noted in Q1 or Q4 in this manner. | Emphasized strong growth potential due to minimal new retail supply driving higher rents. | Newly emphasized in Q3 |
Large-scale development or redevelopment | Q2 highlighted Mary Brickell, Culture Place ; Q1 noted double-digit yields ; Q4 outlined $100–150M annual redevelopment with cautious timing. | 12,000 entitled multifamily units; disciplined activation and focus on measured pace. | Consistency with disciplined approach |
Stronger balance sheet ($2B revolver) | Q2 mentioned a $2B revolver but focused on paying it down ; Q1 stated $2B liquidity ; Q4 confirmed $2B availability. | $2B revolver fully available, expanded term loan, and improved debt ratings. | Consistent focus; Q3 includes more detail |
Long-term FFO growth target of 3%–5% | Q4 reaffirmed the 3%–5% range but noted near-term headwinds. Q1 and Q2 did not explicitly reference a 3%–5% target, though Q1 raised FFO guidance. | Not specifically mentioned in Q3. | Mentioned in Q4; no specific Q3 update |
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Growth Outlook for 2025
Q: Is next year's growth expected to be similar or higher than this year's 3.25%?
A: We're not giving guidance yet, but we're focused on enhancing growth in 2025. This year has been operationally strong for Kimco, with muted bankruptcies and resilient consumer demand. Retailers continue to expand in high-quality shopping centers, and we see significant opportunity to improve our growth profile. We may monetize our 12,000 entitled apartment units and recycle capital into higher-growth shopping centers. -
Acquisition Outperformance
Q: Can you quantify how RPT and Weingarten exceeded original underwriting?
A: RPT has been ahead of expectations; this quarter, RPT same-site NOI was 10.3%, a very strong number. We've outperformed our underwriting on both synergies and NOI assumptions. Both RPT and Weingarten have enhanced Kimco's growth profile, unlocking value for shareholders. -
Capital Deployment from Monetizations
Q: Will you deploy capital from monetizing assets into higher-growth assets, and will these be smaller or larger transactions?
A: We're maximizing value on a one-off basis, whether selling entitled properties or long-term ground leases. Each asset is unique, and we're excited about redeploying capital into higher-growth shopping centers. We're now focused on accretive asset recycling rather than higher cap rate dilutive sales. -
Structured Investments Pipeline
Q: Discuss the structured investments opportunity and potential fee acquisitions ahead.
A: We're enthusiastic about this program; we have about $470 million outstanding across a couple of dozen assets. Some deals are reaching the end of their life cycle, presenting right-of-first-offer opportunities. We're working on one asset that may materialize in early 2025, which could become a significant pipeline if it progresses. -
Acquisition Market Dynamics
Q: You raised acquisition guidance and cap rates by 50–60 bps; what's driving the upward cap rate projection?
A: The cap rates reflect our transactions this year, a mix of higher-yielding structured investments and the Waterford acquisition in the low 7s. There's strong competition for transactions, especially grocery-anchored centers, with cap rates compressing to mid-5% to sub-6% in some markets. We expect cap rates to remain stable or compress further, depending on the rate environment, and we'll remain disciplined focusing on long-term growth. -
Leasing Environment Strength
Q: How is current leasing interest and tenant demand versus the recent past, and impact on rents?
A: The leasing environment remains strong due to limited supply and high demand. For 2025, over 70% of our first-half anchor rollover is resolved or in process, ahead of last year. Off-price retailers lead new deals; grocers are second at almost 20% of anchor deal flow. Retailers seek growth and expansion, providing us opportunities. Rent growth continues to excel, exceeding prior quarter spreads on new deals. No material cracks in the system are observed. -
Inflation Impact on Strategy
Q: Have your views on inflation changed, and how might higher inflation impact pricing and rents?
A: Inflation remains a focus. Policies from both political candidates may have inflationary effects. It's critical to outpace inflation in our growth profile. Inflation can benefit retailers with inventory; consumer traffic is up 2% year-over-year. The Fed seems confident in bringing inflation back to target levels, but we'll watch closely. -
Activating Entitled Projects
Q: How are you timing activation of entitled projects over the next few years?
A: We have 12,000 units entitled over the last 8–9 years. We're preserving discipline in activating these projects. Currently, Suburban Square is under construction in a preferred structure yielding attractive returns. We're monitoring opportunities as costs come down, with potential activations in 2025. We may also monetize some entitlements to third-party developers. -
Seller Motivations and Cap Rates
Q: What's driving sellers to the market now, and how have cap rates moved since the Waterford deal?
A: Sellers have various reasons, often liquidity needs or fund redemptions. Open-air grocery-anchored centers are liquid assets close to their basis, so investors are selling. Despite market fluctuations, we're focused on long-term value. Waterford's pricing might differ today, but we're excited about the asset for decades to come. -
RPT Small Shop Leasing
Q: Can you discuss progress in RPT small shop leasing and closing the gap with core Kimco?
A: We see continued momentum after absorbing RPT. The operating team is performing well; the retained RPT portfolio, including the Midwest, is strong. Our small shop initiative is impacting numbers, contributing to outperformance in Q3 same-site NOI. We've also integrated excellent personnel into the organization. -
Lifestyle Center Acquisitions
Q: Are you focused on select markets for lifestyle center acquisitions, or is market dominance the criteria?
A: Our diversification allows us to create value across all formats and geographies. We're driven by opportunities in markets we like and team performance. Larger format, higher price point assets differentiate us, with limited competition compared to grocery-anchored centers. -
Financial Flexibility
Q: Regarding maturities in 2025, how will you address them?
A: We have $290 million of remaining maturities in 2025. We're in good shape with full availability of our $2 billion revolver. We'll consider various options, possibly returning to the bond market, and we have a well-staggered maturity profile. -
Inflation's Effect on Retailers
Q: How does inflation affect retailers and your leasing activity?
A: Inflation can be positive for retailers with inventory; consumers continue to shop, and employment is strong. Our traffic is up 2% year-over-year. We focus on outpacing inflation in our growth. -
Transaction Volume Expectations
Q: Do you expect greater investment volumes, and what's driving sellers despite rising rates?
A: Yes, we expect greater volumes. Sellers have various reasons, including liquidity needs or fund redemptions. Open-air grocery-anchored centers are liquid assets close to their basis. Rising rates haven't deterred sales; we focus on long-term value. -
Leasing Costs and Turnover
Q: How do current leasing costs and tenant turnover compare to the past?
A: Lease costs have held steady; the majority of deals this quarter were on the small shop side, driving lower costs. High retention rates lead to less turnover and lower CapEx needs, improving our growth profile. We see no material cracks in the system.
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