Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered resilient growth: FFO per diluted share rose 7.7% year over year to $0.42, Same Property NOI grew 4.5%, and pro‑rata leased occupancy was 96.3% (up 10 bps YoY) .
Management issued initial FY2025 outlook of FFO/share $1.70–$1.72 and net income/share $0.70–$0.72, with Same Property NOI growth “2.0%+,” underpinned by a tight supply backdrop and healthy leasing pipeline .
Quarter dynamics: GAAP diluted EPS was $0.23 vs $0.22 a year ago, aided by RPT acquisition revenue, a $46.9m tax benefit related to ACI share sale, and tempered by higher interest expense and lower gains on sales .
Capital and catalysts: Liquidity stood at ~$2.7B (incl. $689.7m cash), Moody’s outlook to positive in Jan-2025, and the first “loan-to-own” conversion (Markets at Town Center, $108m) supports net acquisition posture—potential stock narrative catalysts include execution on backfilling bankruptcy boxes, 2025 SPNOI trajectory, and disciplined match‑funded capital recycling .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Strong operating and FFO momentum: “Grew FFO 7.7%... to $0.42 per diluted share” and “Same Property NOI up 4.5%,” reflecting leasing strength and contributions from RPT .
Portfolio quality and supply/demand: CEO: “lack of new supply now measured at just 0.3% of existing retail stock” and entitlements goal “12,000 apartment units” reached early; a key underpinning for pricing power and densification optionality .
Capital allocation: First structured investment conversion to fee ownership (Markets at Town Center, $108m ~7% cap) and earlier purchase of Waterford Lakes Town Center ($322m) at attractive timing supported growth; Moody’s outlook moved to positive in Jan-2025 .

What Went Wrong

Higher interest expense and lower gains on sales weighed on GAAP earnings: YoY +$15.9m interest and −$22.3m gains on sale vs Q4 2023; net offset by tax benefit related to ACI .
Sequential occupancy dipped 10 bps (to 96.3%) as 16 leases tied to retailer distress (Lumber Liquidators, Big Lots, Conn’s, Bob’s Stores) vacated; management flagged retail bankruptcy exposure and embedded credit loss assumptions .
Estimate visibility: We could not access S&P Global consensus due to temporary data limits; beat/miss vs Street cannot be validated at this time (consensus unavailable) [SPGI API limit error].

Financial Results

Q2–Q4 2024 selected P&L and KPI comparisons (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$500.231	$507.632	$525.397
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.17	$0.19	$0.23
FFO per Share – Diluted	$0.41	$0.43	$0.42
Same Property NOI Growth (%)	3.0%	3.3%	4.5%

Operating metrics and leasing:

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Pro‑rata Leased Occupancy	96.2%	96.4%	96.3%
Pro‑rata Anchor Occupancy	98.1%	98.2%	98.2%
Pro‑rata Small Shop Occupancy	91.7%	91.8%	91.7%
Leases Signed (Count)	482	451	429
New Lease Cash Rent Spread (%)	26.3%	41.9%	35.4%
Blended Cash Rent Spread (%)	11.7%	12.3%	11.4%
Leased vs Economic Occ. Spread (bps)	320	310	270
Signed-not-open Future Annual Base Rent ($USD Millions)	~$63	~$61.2	~$56

Key drivers this quarter

Revenue scale and NOI: RPT drove much of the YoY increase in rental property revenues; total pro‑rata NOI rose ~$60.8m YoY in Q4 (17.8%), with $38.1m from RPT, $7.0m from other acquisitions, and $15.7m from the operating portfolio .
EPS mechanics: +$46.9m tax benefit related to ACI sale and higher D&A/real estate taxes/OpEx and interest created puts/takes; net diluted EPS $0.23 vs $0.22 LY .
Balance sheet/liquidity: ~$2.7B immediate liquidity incl. $689.7m cash; subsequent payoff of $500m 3.3% bond on Feb 3; ratings: Moody’s Baa1, outlook to positive (Jan-2025) .

Guidance Changes

Initial FY2025 outlook and key assumptions; prior comparable guidance is N/A (new year).

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net income per diluted share	FY 2025	N/A	$0.70–$0.72	Initial
FFO per diluted share	FY 2025	N/A	$1.70–$1.72	Initial
Same Property NOI growth	FY 2025	N/A	2.0%+	Initial
Credit loss (% of pro‑rata rental revenues)	FY 2025	N/A	75–100 bps	Initial
Net acquisitions incl. Structured Investments (blended 7–8%)	FY 2025	N/A	$100–$125m	Initial
Lease termination income	FY 2025	N/A	$6–$9m	Initial
Interest income on cash	FY 2025	N/A	$6–$9m	Initial
Capital expenditures (TI/Landlord/LC)	FY 2025	N/A	$250–$300m	Initial
Corporate financing costs (interest + preferred dividends)	FY 2025	N/A	$354–$363m	Initial
G&A expense	FY 2025	N/A	$131–$137m	Initial
Common dividend	Q1 2025	N/A	$0.25/sh payable Mar 21, 2025	Declared

Management also emphasized match‑funded capital recycling via selective ground lease and entitlement monetizations to support acquisitions/Structured Investments .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2, Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
Supply/demand & limited new supply	Strong operating performance and raised outlook; tight market supports rent growth	“New supply ~0.3% of retail stock,” continued pricing power in first‑ring suburbs	Improving/stable
RPT acquisition integration	Validated RPT thesis; occupancy and spreads progressing	Implied 8.5% cap rate; synergies improved 13% to $36m; same-site NOI +6.2%	Executing above plan
Bankruptcy exposure & credit loss	2024 guide embedded 0.75–1.00% credit loss	2025 assumes 75–100 bps; Big Lots/Party City/Jo‑Ann updates; $17–$22m loss modeled	Managed, opportunity to mark-to-market
Structured Investments / M&A	$168m structured invested; Waterford Lakes acquisition	First “loan‑to‑own” conversion (Markets at Town Center $108m); net acquirer plan	Expanding deliberately
Mixed‑use densification	—	12,000 units entitled; target long‑term apartment NOI ~10%; capital‑efficient activation	Optionality building
Ratings & liquidity	Fitch A‑; S&P outlook positive (Sept)	Moody’s outlook to positive; ~$2.7B liquidity	Strengthening

Management Commentary

Conor Flynn, CEO: “The lack of new supply now measured at just 0.3% of existing retail stock… continues to facilitate strong fundamental results and earnings growth.”
Conor Flynn, CEO: “We reached our goal of entitling 12,000 apartment units a year ahead of schedule, providing the opportunity to further expand our mixed‑use portfolio.”
Ross Cooper, President & CIO, on RPT: “Implied cap rate of 8.5%… cost synergies… to $36 million… helped drive the RPT same‑site NOI growth to 6.2%.”
Glenn Cohen, CFO: “FFO for the fourth quarter was $286.9 million or $0.42 per diluted share… a per share increase of 7.7%.”

Q&A Highlights

Credit loss and bankruptcies: 2025 credit loss embedded at 75–100 bps of ~~$2.2B revenue (~~$17–$22m), reflecting Big Lots, Party City, Jo‑Ann processes; management expects robust backfill demand and sees rent mark‑to‑market opportunity .
Leasing/occupancy dynamics: Small shop occupancy flat partly due to RPT small shop drag (~88% at acquisition) despite legacy Kimco >92%; focus on pushing small shop leasing in 2025 .
Capital recycling and sources/uses: Match‑fund via select ground lease and entitlement monetizations; ~ $140m FCF after dividends and capex provides additional low‑cost funding .
Redevelopment vs acquisitions: Retail‑driven approach favors quicker backfills to accelerate cash flow; multifamily activation remains selective given cost of capital—use ground leases/JVs/ROFRs to remain capital‑light .
Balance sheet & maturities: 2025 maturities ~$290m (incl. ~$240m bond due June 1); 2026 ~$750m starting August; current 10‑yr bond pricing ~95 bps over UST (~5.0–5.45%) .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS/FFO/revenue/target price) were not retrievable at time of analysis due to data-access limits (Daily Request Limit exceeded). As a result, we cannot present a definitive beat/miss vs consensus for the quarter [SPGI API limit error].
We will update this section with consensus vs actuals upon access restoration (S&P Global is the default source for consensus).

Key Takeaways for Investors

Tight supply backdrop and continued demand support leasing, rent spreads, and SPNOI in 2025 despite retailer bankruptcy noise; embedded credit loss looks prudent with upside from faster backfills/mark‑to‑market .
Portfolio quality (grocery‑anchored, first‑ring suburbs) and densification pipeline (12k units entitled) provide durable multi‑year growth levers with capital‑light structures to manage cost of capital .
Disciplined capital allocation—select net acquisitions, first SIP “loan‑to‑own,” and match‑funded recycling—should limit equity needs and sustain accretion; ~$2.7B liquidity adds flexibility .
2025 outlook (FFO/share $1.70–$1.72, SPNOI 2%+) implies steady growth; watch cadence of backfills and SNOP commencements ($25m rent expected in 2025) for intra‑year upside .
Monitor credit ratings trajectory (Moody’s positive outlook) as potential refinancings approach in 2025–2026; improved ratings can lower funding costs .
Near‑term trading: Evidence of accelerated backfill wins, incremental asset acquisitions at attractive yields, or guidance raises could drive positive revision and sentiment; conversely, incremental bankruptcy fallout or slower commencements are key risks to watch .

Additional Context and Select Events

Q4 cap markets and liquidity: ATM raised $136.3m (5.4m shares at $25.07), tendered ~22% of Class N preferred, ended year with ~$689.7m cash and fully available $2.0B revolver .
Transactions: Waterford Lakes Town Center ($322m; assumed $164.6m, 4.86% mortgage) and January acquisition of Markets at Town Center ($108m; first SIP conversion) .
Dividend: $0.25 per common share declared, payable March 21, 2025 .

Notes: All figures are as reported by the company in Q4 2024 earnings materials and related filings/transcripts. Where consensus comparisons are referenced, S&P Global is the default source; however, consensus data was unavailable at time of drafting due to access limits (see Estimates Context).

KIMCO REALTY CORP (KIM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary