Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Integration of the South Texas Midstream assets is going well, with commercial opportunities progressing sooner than expected, and the company feels very good about the long-term earnings expectation and valuation multiple for the acquisition.
- Kinder Morgan is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural gas driven by AI and data centers, with ongoing projects and discussions to support increased power generation needs, leveraging their extensive network which moves 40% of the gas in the U.S.
- The project backlog increased by $300 million net, due to $400 million in new natural gas projects added, and the expectation to add significant projects to the backlog within the next year, supported by opportunities in both supply (Permian, Haynesville, Eagle Ford) and demand (LNG exports, power generation growth), indicating strong future growth prospects.
- Kinder Morgan's natural gas gathering volumes are coming in below budget due to decreased volumes in key basins such as the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Haynesville. This could impact earnings as lower volumes may reduce revenues from gathering operations.
- Negative Waha natural gas prices could adversely affect Kinder Morgan's earnings. Although the company has hedged much of its capacity for this year, more capacity will become unhedged over time, potentially exposing KMI to price risks if negative pricing persists.
- Challenges in securing contracts for new pipeline projects like the Permian Pass and TCS expansion suggest difficulties in future growth. The company acknowledges that it's a matter of making sure they have the contracts to support the investment, indicating potential hurdles in project commercialization.
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Leverage Target Adjustment
Q: Why did you lower the leverage target?
A: We adjusted our leverage target to 3.5x to 4.5x from 4.5x to align our policy with how we have been operating. Our actual operating leverage has been gravitating below 4.5x, with the 2024 budget at 3.9x. There is no change to how we operate or our capital allocation philosophy ,. -
Capital Allocation Philosophy
Q: Will the new leverage plan change dividends or buybacks?
A: No, there is zero change to our capital allocation philosophy. This change simply brings our policy in line with how we've operated over the last few years. -
Demand Opportunities from AI and Data Centers
Q: How will you capitalize on power demand from AI and data centers?
A: We see significant opportunities as we currently serve 20% of the U.S. power market and move 40% of the gas. While it's early and we can't put exact numbers, we expect to realize a significant portion of this demand growth. Our extensive network positions us well to serve this market wherever it develops. -
Negative Waha Gas Prices Impact
Q: How do negative Waha gas prices affect you?
A: The negative prices are due to a warm winter and are temporary. We share in some upside through proprietary storage and have hedged much of our capacity for this year ,. Longer term, we see a need for another pipeline out of the Permian and are working on commercializing one ,. -
New Permian Pipeline Projects
Q: Any updates on new Permian pipelines?
A: We continue to work on commercializing both a new pipeline like Permian Pass and expansions like TDC. It's highly competitive, and we need contracts to support the investment. There's nothing to announce today, but discussions with customers are ongoing ,. -
Gathering Volumes Below Budget
Q: Which basins have lower gathering volumes?
A: Volumes are slightly below budget in the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Haynesville ,. However, we have good growth year-over-year and expect this to be temporary due to the current price environment ,. -
Business Structure Synergies
Q: Any thoughts on separating businesses by commodity?
A: We like all the businesses we own and see synergies among them. Our CO₂ business provides expertise for our carbon capture efforts. We're happy with our assets and will continue to operate them unless offered a great price. -
Integration of South Texas Assets
Q: How is the integration of South Texas assets progressing?
A: Early days, but we're seeing commercial opportunities materialize sooner than expected. Some opportunities we thought were years away may come together late this year or next. We expect to be on our acquisition model for 2024 and beyond. -
Backlog Increase Details
Q: Can you provide details on the $300 million backlog increase?
A: We added $400 million in projects and placed $100 million in service. New projects include an interstate project on Tennessee Gas Pipeline, an intrastate lateral in Texas, and a pipeline egress project in Altamont. -
Upcoming Growth Opportunities
Q: Is the backlog increase related to a Permian egress solution?
A: It refers to a broad set of opportunities on both supply and demand sides. Supply-side includes basins like Haynesville, Permian, and Eagle Ford. Demand-side includes LNG, industrial growth, and power growth in the West and Mexico. We expect some opportunities to come to fruition within the next year. -
Factors Affecting Leverage Range
Q: What factors will move leverage within the new target range?
A: Acquisitions or large expansion opportunities could result in higher leverage for a time. In periods with less opportunity, we produce significant cash flow and can create balance sheet capacity. The range gives us flexibility depending on the environment. -
Impact on Credit Ratings
Q: Does the leverage target change rating agencies' views?
A: We think it will impact how rating agencies and fixed income investors view our financial policy. By making this change, our leverage target reflects how we've been operating.