Sign in

    Carmax Inc (KMX)

    Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$80.06Last close (Apr 9, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$69.49Open (Apr 10, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-10.57(-13.20%)
    • Resilient Operational Levers: Management reiterated that they have multiple initiatives in place to drive cost efficiencies and adjust expenses—such as leveraging SG&A and operational improvements—to protect margins even in a softer economic environment.
    • Enhanced Omnichannel and Digital Capabilities: The executives highlighted advances in digital tools, improved online appraisal processes, and streamlined dealer integrations that have strengthened sourcing and customer engagement, positioning the company for continued market share gains.
    • Robust EPS Growth Model: The team underscored their confidence in delivering high-teen EPS growth through a combination of mid-single-digit retail unit expansion and leveraged CarMax Auto Finance performance, setting a strong upward earnings trajectory.
    • Rising Credit Risk: Management expects CAF's loan loss provisions to increase by 45–50% in Q1 due to higher origination volume and lower credit quality, which may pressure margins if broader credit trends do not improve.
    • Tariff-Related Cost Pressures: Uncertainty around new car tariffs could lead to double-digit increases in new car prices and higher parts costs, potentially eroding margins and complicating inventory sourcing.
    • Slow SG&A Normalization: With SG&A as a percent of gross profit at around 90% in Q4 and a gradual expected decline to the mid-70s over time, the delay in achieving lower operating leverage may negatively impact short-term profitability.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    EPS Growth

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    double-digit EPS growth with a CAGR in the high teens on EPS

    no prior guidance

    SG&A Expenses

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    normalization from the current 90% range back to the mid-70% range over time

    no prior guidance

    Marketing Spend

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    approximately the same as in FY '25 on a total unit basis

    no prior guidance

    Capital Expenditures

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    approximately $575 million, primarily driven by the timing of land purchases

    no prior guidance

    EPP Product Enhancements

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    small year-over-year increase in per unit EPP margin, with potential for more expansion in fiscal '27

    no prior guidance

    Service Margins

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    expected to grow year-over-year—predominantly in the first half—and deliver a slight positive profit contribution for the full year

    no prior guidance

    CAF Income

    FY '26

    no prior guidance

    expected to grow in FY '26, driven by strong net interest margins and provision growth

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Operational Efficiency

    Consistently discussed across Q1–Q3 with focus on COGS savings, logistics and reconditioning improvements, transportation management system tests, and early AI tool adoptions ( ).

    Q4 emphasized realized savings of ~$125 per unit (with plans to double that next fiscal year), enhanced digital tools such as “Sky” achieving over 50% autonomous customer responses, and expanded off-site reconditioning and logistics efficiencies ( ).

    Continued focus with amplified digital integration and more aggressive cost-saving targets, indicating an increasingly positive sentiment about margin improvement.

    Digital Transformation

    Frequently mentioned in Q1–Q3 with initiatives like nationwide rollout of customer shopping accounts, initial tests of AI-powered virtual assistants, and early transportation management process enhancements ( ).

    Q4 built on earlier efforts with increased omnichannel retail sales (67%), 25% growth in fully self-progressed online sales, and further rollouts of digital tools (including enhanced online appraisal and EV research tools) ( ).

    Consistent investment and growth, with sentiment shifting to stronger optimism as digital tools drive higher conversion and operational efficiency.

    Revenue Growth

    Across Q1–Q3, discussions centered on modest unit volume growth, digital/omnichannel momentum, and early share repurchase initiatives, though Q1 reflected lower sales and unit comps ( ).

    Q4 reported robust retail (up 6.2% YoY) and wholesale growth (3.1% YoY), record vehicle purchases from both consumers and dealers, and double-digit EPS growth supported by share repurchases, signaling improved overall performance ( ).

    Evolving from cautious growth to a more robust, multi-channel revenue expansion strategy with improved sentiment and confidence in long‐term EPS expansion.

    Auto Finance

    Q1–Q3 discussions highlighted steady CAF income, testing and expansion of full-spectrum credit models (Tier 2 and Tier 3), securitization transactions, and a focus on maintaining net interest margins ( ).

    In Q4, CAF income reached $159 million with a slight net interest margin increase, tighter credit risk management (with expectations of higher future provisions), and active non-prime lending expansion through new ABS transactions ( ).

    Consistently strong performance with progressive enhancements in credit risk controls and non-prime lending strategies, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook.

    Vehicle Sourcing

    Consistently mentioned in Q1–Q3 with mixed sourcing from consumers and dealers, achieving record dealer volumes in some quarters, diversified buys, and early digital appraisal initiatives (e.g. 99% digital offers) ( ).

    Q4 achieved record dealer sourcing (46,000 vehicles, up 114% YoY) and significant consumer sourcing (223,000 vehicles, with almost all going through digital appraisal), supported by further MaxOffer enhancements and improved inventory management practices ( ).

    Strong, consistent execution with enhanced digital integration and further record-setting sourcing numbers, indicating a highly effective and scalable inventory strategy.

    Margin Management

    Q1 showed some margin pressure (declines in retail and wholesale margins), Q2 was steady, and Q3 reported improvements (increases in retail gross profit per unit and EPP/service margins) ( ).

    Q4 reported record retail gross profit per used unit ($2,322) and clear plans for SG&A normalization toward a mid-70% leverage ratio, alongside marked service margin improvements and targeted EPP enhancements ( ).

    A gradual improvement trajectory from earlier season fluctuations toward clear cost control and margin expansion strategies, with positive sentiment about reaching normalized SG&A levels.

    External Economic Pressures

    Q4 introduced discussions on new car tariffs—projected to widen the price gap between new and used vehicles and increase parts costs—while emphasizing CarMax’s ability to manage inventory amid these uncertainties ( ).

    Newly introduced in Q4, this topic signals emerging external risks that could impact margins if not offset by operational efficiencies, warranting close future monitoring.

    Consumer Demand & Affordability

    Q1–Q3 consistently touched on affordability challenges, with discussions on lower-income consumer struggles, shifts toward older or lower-priced vehicles, and early digital and pricing adjustments to support consumer demand ( ).

    Q4 highlighted accelerating market share gains in late-model used vehicles, increased omnichannel adoption, and cost-of-goods efficiencies—all in the context of tariffs boosting used car demand and strategies to maintain affordability ( ).

    Persistent affordability concerns remain, though enhanced digital tools and cost savings are beginning to mitigate challenges; overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic about demand recovery.

    1. EPS Growth
      Q: Does high-teen EPS growth assume lower SG&A?
      A: Management expects the model to deliver high-teen EPS CAGR assuming a gradual normalization of SG&A from about 90% to the mid-70s, achieved alongside mid-single-digit retail growth.

    2. CAF Provisioning
      Q: Will elevated CAF provisioning persist next quarter?
      A: They forecast a sequential increase—about 45–50% higher in Q1—due to greater volume and lower credit quality, with these higher reserves ultimately offset by future income growth.

    3. Inventory Sourcing
      Q: How are you managing inventory amid tariff uncertainty?
      A: The team relies on its strong, data-driven buying process and local expertise to balance caution with necessary aggressiveness amid potential tariff impacts.

    4. Tariff Impact
      Q: What does a tariff-driven rise in new car prices mean?
      A: Rising new car prices will widen the price spread with quality used cars, driving demand in that segment, though cost pressures from higher parts prices remain a concern being addressed through operational efficiencies.

    5. Dealer Sourcing
      Q: What drove improved dealer and consumer sourcing?
      A: Enhanced digital tools—especially the revamped Max Offer program—boosted active dealer participation by 40% and now allow nearly 99% of customer vehicles to receive digital offers, strengthening inventory acquisition.

    6. Service Margin
      Q: Why did service gross profit improve this quarter?
      A: Efficiency investments, better cost coverage, and leveraging fixed cost structures with higher sales volumes improved service margins, though seasonal trends still persist.

    7. Market Share Growth
      Q: What steps will boost market share toward 5%?
      A: By driving robust sales and leveraging an enhanced omni-channel experience, management expects to gradually capture additional share from competitors and push market share closer to 5%.

    8. Q1 Momentum
      Q: Is strong Q1 performance a catch-up effect?
      A: Management rejects the notion of a catch-up; they expect sustainable momentum in Q1 driven by solid volume growth and improved performance metrics.

    9. CAPEX Target Revision
      Q: Why was the $2M timing target withdrawn?
      A: Due to market uncertainties and shifting macro conditions, management opted not to specify a timeline, focusing instead on driving sales and EPS growth regardless of short-term fluctuations.

    10. Amazon Entry
      Q: How will Amazon’s auto move affect CarMax?
      A: They view Amazon’s entry more as a facilitator for listings and lead generation rather than a direct competitor, reinforcing the strength of their omni-channel model as a competitive moat.

    11. Older Car Segment
      Q: Will expanding the 6–10-year-old segment boost margins?
      A: While strict quality standards remain paramount, further penetration into the 6–10-year-old market offers potential margin uplift, complementing their existing mix without compromising brand reputation.