Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Rapid growth in new product lines, such as high-value homeowners insurance, which is experiencing significant demand and is among their fastest product launches.
- Favorable market conditions in the casualty segment are expected to persist longer than anticipated due to industry underpricing and underreserving issues and an expanding tort system, benefiting Kinsale's disciplined approach.
- Conservative reserving and cautious pricing strategies have led to actual losses below expectations, contributing to strong underwriting results and confidence in future performance.
- Kinsale is experiencing increased competition in its Professional lines segment, leading to pressure on rates; the company is getting selectively more aggressive in this space, possibly accepting lower margins to maintain growth.
- Overall rate increases are decreasing, with nominal rate increases down from around 7% last quarter to approximately 6%; in some casualty lines, rates are flat to slightly down. If loss trends remain elevated, this could pressure underwriting margins.
- The company assumes loss cost trends slightly below 6%, which may be lower than some peers' assumptions; if actual loss trends are higher due to factors like an expanding and unpredictable tort system, Kinsale's loss reserves may prove inadequate.
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Growth Outlook
Q: What is your expected steady-state growth rate?
A: We don't forecast growth precisely, but expect to continue growing at a pace similar to Q1 and Q2, leveraging our business model advantages. -
Pricing Strategy and ROE
Q: How are you using pricing to manage growth and ROE?
A: We adjust pricing based on each division's market position to maximize book value growth; with ROEs over 30% in some divisions, we're flexible on rates to sustain growth. -
Casualty Loss Trends
Q: What are the current loss trends in your casualty books?
A: Loss trends are slightly below our nominal rate increase, in the high 5% range; we're releasing casualty reserves more slowly, especially in long-tail lines, balanced by strong property performance. -
Casualty Market Outlook
Q: Do you expect casualty pricing to improve as the year progresses?
A: In longer-tail casualty lines, rates are increasing; overall, we expect the casualty rate environment to stay the same or improve based on market conditions. -
Property Market Dynamics
Q: How do you view the growth prospects in the property market?
A: We believe we're on an even keel; property pricing is at a 20-year high, with double-digit growth rates, and the market has normalized recently. -
Competition in Property Market
Q: Are you seeing changes in competition in the property market?
A: Competition remains similar; we're seeing more competition on larger placements, but our small property division continues to grow rapidly without significant impact. -
Catastrophe Exposure Management
Q: How are you managing catastrophe exposure amid increased property business?
A: Our book is about 1/3 Property; we use expert underwriting, strict concentration limits, monthly portfolio modeling, and robust reinsurance to capture margins while limiting volatility. -
Underlying Loss Ratio Improvement
Q: What drove the improvement in the underlying loss ratio this quarter?
A: The improvement is attributed to strong performance in short-tail property business, offsetting slower casualty reserve releases; actual losses came in below expectations. -
Operating Expense Ratio
Q: How do you view the expense ratio given G&A growth and slowing earned premiums?
A: We expect the expense ratio to remain flat in the near term; we're investing significantly in technology, with over 125 employees in tech, aiming for long-term efficiency gains. -
Capital Allocation
Q: How are you thinking about capital needs amid slower growth?
A: We strive for capital efficiency and, with growth rates moderating to the 20% range, we'd likely allocate excess capital through dividends or share buybacks, favoring buybacks. -
Loss Trend Changes
Q: Has your view on loss trends changed recently?
A: Loss trend is now a little below 6%, down from higher levels during peak inflation; it varies by line of business and reflects concerns about inflation and the evolving tort system. -
Potential Benefit from Competitors' Reserving Issues
Q: Are you seeing benefits from competitors having reserving issues?
A: Not immediately, but we expect to; changes in market behavior, especially in lines like commercial general liability and long-tail occurrence business, may provide opportunities. -
Investment Portfolio Positioning
Q: Are you changing investment positioning ahead of rate cuts?
A: We actively manage interest rate exposure but don't expect significant strategy changes in the near term; we monitor Fed policy closely. -
E&S Market Growth
Q: Do you see the trend of E&S taking share from standard markets continuing?
A: We believe the trend will persist, particularly on the commercial side, and has accelerated on the personal side in recent years; we're bullish on the E&S market. -
Excess Auto Growth
Q: What niches are you targeting in excess auto?
A: We focus on excess commercial auto and garage liability, emphasizing small accounts with restrictive coverage and high rates; experience has been good in this area. -
Premium Per Policy Decline
Q: Was the decrease in premium per policy due to mix shift?
A: Yes, it's purely a mix of business; fluctuations are normal and reflect our focus on smaller accounts across different lines. -
Ceded Premium Ratio
Q: Is the lower ceded premium ratio indicative for the future?
A: It reflects the mix of business and is a reasonable gauge going forward. -
Increased Retentions Impact
Q: Does increasing retentions accelerate earned premiums and underwriting income?
A: Yes, increasing retentions can accelerate earned premiums, potentially raising the loss ratio but improving underwriting income overall. -
Clarification on Rate Increases
Q: Is the 6% rate increase you mentioned only for casualty?
A: No, the 6% rate increase applies to our entire book of business. -
High-Value Homeowners Line
Q: Is the high-value homeowners line material to your results?
A: While not one of our largest lines, it's a significant opportunity with rapid growth due to high demand as business moves into the E&S space.
Research analysts covering Kinsale Capital Group.