Coca-Cola FEMSA - Q4 2020

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Coca-Cola FEMSA's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded, and all participants are in listen-only mode. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the presentation. During this conference call, management may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning Coca-Cola FEMSA's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the company. These forward-looking statements reflect management's expectations and are based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties, which can materially impact the company's actual performance. At this time, I will now turn the conference over to Mr. John Santa Maria, Coca-Cola FEMSA's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Santa Maria.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results. We appreciate your interest in our company and hope you and your families are safe and well. With me today are Constantino Spas, our Chief Financial Officer, Matias Molina, Strategic Planning Director, and Jorge Collazo, Head of Investor Relations. I am pleased to report solid operating results and important advances in our strategic priorities. Our performance is a testament to our ability to adapt to complex operating environments and drive savings and efficiencies across the entire organization. During the quarter, we saw overall improving trends, leading to the first quarter of consolidated volume growth since the start of the pandemic. This was driven mainly by our comeback plans, the continuous resiliency of our traditional trade channel, and the unmatched affordability of our portfolio.

Additionally, we were able to continue strengthening our competitive position, resulting in market share gains across key territories and categories. Despite the significant challenges posed by COVID-19, 2020 was a year of resilience and continuous transformation for Coca-Cola FEMSA. We not only addressed the pandemic with operating excellence, but also continued to move aggressively on all our strategic and digital fronts. During our call today, I will briefly review our fourth quarter results and comment on our strategies and key priorities for 2021. Then, I will switch gears to discuss the great news concerning yesterday's announcement on beer, on the beer distribution agreement in Brazil. Finally, I will turn the call over to Constantino to review the results of each division and expand on our capital allocation as we continue to strengthen our solid financial position.

Moving on to discuss our results, our consolidated volumes increased 1.4%. This improvement was driven mainly by the continuing solid performance of Brazil and Guatemala, which volumes grew 9.8% and 12%, respectively. Additionally, we saw significant sequential recovery across most of our markets, including key territories such as Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina. Importantly, we continue to see improved performance across beverage categories in most of our territories. On a consolidated basis, our sparkling beverage category consolidated volumes outperformed, led by 2.3% growth in brand Coca-Cola and 2% growth in flavors. Bulk water grew 1.9%, and our still beverages category grew 4.8%, driven mainly by solid growth across our South America division. In Mexico, we saw improved trends during the quarter, despite the strict December lockdown in Mexico City.

During the year, we focused on bolstering our renewed affordability portfolio to reactivate growth. Consequently, we are seeing a marked recovery as returnable packages reach historic levels. Notably, in Brazil, our sparkling beverage volumes grew 8% for the second consecutive quarter, driven by 6% growth in brand Coca-Cola and double-digit growth in flavors. Our sparkling beverage volumes also grew in Central America, Colombia, and Argentina. The traditional trade remained resilient, with flat quarterly performance compared with the previous year, while the modern channel and the on-premise channels faced slight deterioration, driven mainly by increased restrictions across most territories during December. Moving on to our top line, our total revenues declined 5.1%, as our pricing and revenue management initiatives were offset mainly by unfavorable currency translation effects and price mix headwinds.

Notably, excluding currency translation effects, we would have generated comparable top line growth of 1.9% for the quarter. Importantly, despite a decline in revenues, our operating income increased a solid 13.4%, driven by a more favorable raw material environment, declining PET costs, favorable currency hedging initiatives, and our cost-cutting and savings initiatives. These factors were partially offset by unfavorable price mix effects, the depreciation of most of our operating currencies as compared to the U.S. dollar, and higher concentrate costs in Mexico. Excluding currency translation effects, our operating income would have increased by 21.9%. Thanks to our mitigation actions and favorable raw material costs, we offset approximately MXN 1.5 billion of COVID-19 related headwinds at the operating income level.

This means that our countermeasures have effectively mitigated more than 80% of the pandemic's estimated gross impact for the period. As a result of these initiatives, our consolidated operating cash flow margin expanded by 220 basis points to 20.4%. Finally, our controlling net income increased 59.2% year-over-year, driven mainly by our solid operating results. It is fair to say this increase is achieved in base of a comparable base, but it included an extraordinary non-operating expense of MXN 948 million recorded in 2019. However, by normalizing our controlling net income, our earnings per share for the quarter would have increased 7.9%, reflecting solid results in a challenging overall environment.

As we turn the page on 2020 and focus on 2021, we are witnessing a fundamental transformation. Changes that were expected to take a decade are happening in just 12-18 months. To this end, it is clear to us that consumer choices and purchase occasions are evolving as never before. To adapt to these changes, our long-term strategy is guided by a clear aspiration and purpose: to put the beverage of their preference in our consumers' hands, anytime and anywhere, by becoming an integrated commercial beverage platform that works seamlessly and in real time. On our last conference call, I outlined four strategic priorities to achieve this aspiration. First, build a portfolio for every occasion. Secondly, enable an overall digital transformation. Third, ensure business sustainability, and fourth, foster a collaborative culture.

I'd like to add that we remain optimistic, too, to capitalize on inorganic opportunities. Now, let me share a couple of examples of how we are delivering on these strategic priorities. In Mexico, we are building an affordable portfolio for every occasion through both returnable and one-way presentations. In the sparkling beverage category, we continue to roll out our 2.5 L returnable Universal, or Botella Única, which is already enabling us to capture share of sales in the flavored sparkling beverage category. During 2020, our returnable portfolio was growing, and key to this growth was the 2.5, which grew 14% year-over-year. Additionally, we are expanding affordability in the one-way segment with the successful launches of 1.35, 2.25, and 2.75 L presentations, all at key price points.

We're achieving all of this as we improve our competitive position in the hydration, nutrition, and energy categories through our three-tier portfolio strategy. We're also enabling an overall digital transformation by increasing our presence in digital channels and home delivery routes, which are growing double digits and where we have identified significant opportunities. During 2021, we expect to increase the number of home delivery routes in Mexico by approximately 30% to reach 185,000 new households. Now, switching gears to Brazil. This country was a testing ground for our omni-channel digital strategy. During 2020, we aggressively rolled out our artificial intelligence chatbot-enabled WhatsApp feature, which allowed us to take orders from our clients 24/7.

Through this platform, we sold more than 55 million unique cases from April to December, growing from approximately six hundred thousand unique cases per month to almost six million, and it continues to grow. Additionally, 2021 will bring a year of profound transformation on two important fronts. First, the reorganization and consolidation of our beer portfolio, and secondly, the continuing evolution of this operation as a leader within Coca-Cola online to offline platform. Importantly, we made significant progress to ensure business sustainability. And thanks to our efforts, we have achieved key sustainability goals ahead of our year end.

Additionally, we are very proud to announce that we are the only Mexico-based beverage company to be included in the S&P Global Sustainability 2021 Yearbook, due to our positive results in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, which evaluates environmental, social, economic, and corporate governance of more than seven thousand companies worldwide. This recognition motivates us to continue working on all aspects of sustainability, ensuring our commitment to the overall ecosystem and communities where we operate as a fundamental part of our corporate strategy. Furthermore, with respect to our fourth strategic priority, we're building a customer and consumer-focused culture, founded on operating excellence, agile decision-making, and owner's mentality, and a people first mindset.

Driven by these core values, we are changing our ways of working and reinforcing the behaviors necessary to emerge as a stronger, leaner, and more agile company, empowered to achieve our purpose and vision. Finally, we are continuously looking to capitalize on inorganic opportunities to continue growing our company while maintaining our conservative approach to capital allocation by carefully selecting strategic opportunities that are fairly valued and represent a strategic avenue of growth. Moving on to our recently announced beer distribution agreement in Brazil. As part of our key strategic priorities together with the Coca-Cola system, we successfully redesigned our distribution partnership with Heineken. This represents a win-win for the Coca-Cola system, Heineken, and most importantly, our customers and consumers in Brazil, who will benefit from a wide array of options.

As part of this new agreement, which is expected to become effective, effective mid-2021, the parties will begin a smooth transition of the Heineken and Amstel brands to Heineken Brazil's distribution network. The Coca-Cola system will continue to sell the Kaiser, Bohemia, and Sol beer brands, and will complement this portfolio with the premium Eisenbahn brand and an interesting pipeline of another three international brands from the Heineken portfolio.... which will be announced in due course. In particular, this agreement allows KOF to, first, strengthen its portfolio with solid premium, mainstream, and economy brands from the Heineken portfolio. Secondly, align its interests and provide flexibility. The Coca-Cola system will be able to produce and distribute other beers and alcoholic beverages, subject to certain mutually agreed upon terms included in the agreement. And thirdly, capture distribution synergies with the system, allowing for stronger economics.

Subject to the customary regulatory approvals, we have agreed to an initial term until December thirty-first, 2026, with an automatic renewal for another five-year term, subject to terms of the agreement. The redesign of the successful distribution partnership with Heineken, and most importantly, the realignment of interests, combined with our capabilities to develop the market, make us confident that we will continue growing and developing the beer segment in Brazil, as we have successfully done in the past, building a portfolio of premium, mainstream, and value beers. In summary, against the backdrop of a complex dynamic environment, we're encouraged by our resilience, our underlying operating trends, and our people's unwavering devotion in the face of adversity.

Guided by our shared purpose of refreshing the world anytime, anywhere, we're taking the right steps to emerge a stronger company, creating key avenues for growth and value creation for years to come. With that, I will now hand over the call to Constantino Spas.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you, John, and thank you all for joining us on today's earnings call. I will now expand on our division's highlights for the fourth quarter. Starting with Mexico. In Mexico, our top line decreased 2%, driven mainly by unfavorable price mix effects and a 2.9% volume decline. These effects were partially offset by our pricing and revenue management initiatives. Importantly, we're able to expand our operating margin by a solid 650 basis points in Mexico, driven mainly by cost and expense efficiencies and savings. Importantly, our multi-serve returnable presentations have continued to grow double digits, while our single-serve one-way presentations have shown some sequential recoveries throughout the quarter. Moreover, we saw an accelerated volume performance in both the energy drink and bulk water segments.

If we think about 2021, we expect a sequential recovering trend to continue, while we leverage on the important learnings that we've had from this historical crisis. We're pretty confident that we will be able to continue to protect our margins to deliver positive results. Moving down to Central America, our volume increased 1.3%, driven mainly by a double-digit volume increase from our operations in Guatemala, which continued to deliver very solid performance, which were partially offset by volume declines in Panama. Panama is a market that has been hit very hard by the pandemic and its consequences. On the pricing front, our revenue management initiatives, coupled with a positive currency translation effect from our Central American currencies into Mexican pesos, drove top line growth of 4.4% in Central America.

As a result, our combined revenues decreased 4.7% in the Mexico and Central America division. Despite the effects of COVID-19 on our volumes in Mexico, together with the unfavorable price mix effects and the depreciation of the Mexican peso, our operating margin for the division expanded 260 basis points, while our operating cash flow margin expanded by 420 basis points. This increase was driven mainly by declining PET costs, successful currency hedging initiatives, and our ability to drive savings and operating expense efficiencies. Additionally, in the same period of the previous year, we have included restructuring severance payments related to our Fuel for Growth efficiency program, which allowed us to face the pandemic as a leaner, much more agile organization, which was very beneficial in the light of the hardship of the pandemic.

If we move on to our South American division, our 6.5 volume growth was driven mainly by solid 7.8 volume growth in Brazil, and an outstanding volume increase of 11.6% in Argentina, while our volume in Colombia sequentially improved through, you know, throughout the period. In addition to our ability to position strategic categories such as energy drinks, to continue gaining market share, and on the other hand, our affordability initiatives to drive volume growth, these positive trends were driven mainly by favorable weather, improvements in consumer sentiment and government incentives. These encouraging trends were partially offset by a slight decrease in Uruguay.

As was the case for Mexico and Central America Division, our pricing initiatives were offset mainly by currency headwinds, driven primarily by an 18.3% unfavorable translation effect from the Brazilian Real. These headwinds, coupled with price mix effects, led to a top-line decline of 10% in South America. However, if we exclude the currency translation effect, our top-line would have increased 6.5% during the quarter. Despite the volume recoveries in the South American division, our gross margin contracted by 280 basis points, mainly driven by unfavorable price mix dynamics and currency headwinds across our operations. I will now expand on our financial results, which reflect our initiatives to strengthen our very strong balance sheet and financial position.

Our interest expense recorded a reduction as compared to the previous year, driven mainly by our liability management initiatives, which include debt prepayments, partially offset by additional short-term debt that we incurred in mainly in Mexican pesos during the first quarter of the year, to reinforce our cash position in the face of the, you know, unknown elements of the pandemic at that point in time. This reduction was partially offset by a decline in interest income as compared to the previous year, driving flat performance in our interest expense net, year on year. As part of a comprehensive financial result, we recorded a foreign exchange loss of MXN 346 million, driven mainly by the appreciation of the Mexican peso as applied to our dollar-denominated cash position.

Finally, I would want to underscore Coca-Cola FEMSA's strength and resiliency, reflected in our very strong balance sheet. As of December 31st, 2020, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio closed at 1.13x, compared to 1.34x in 2019. Our cash position at the end of the year was more than MXN 43 billion. Additionally, in November, we paid the second installment of our dividend, a 37% increase versus previous year's dividend. Finally, I would like to say that I'm very proud of our team and the way that we have been able to emerge stronger from one of the most challenging years in history. Our solid balance sheet, coupled with our ability to improve margins on a consolidated basis for the full year, are proof that we're taking the right steps to overcome difficult environments.

I'm confident that we are on the right path to continue to deliver positive results for our stakeholders. And with that, I will hand the call back to John for his final remarks, and then we will take some questions. Thank you very much for your time today. John?

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Yes, um-

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Back to you.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Thank you. Against a backdrop of an extremely complex year, we continue to execute and deliver on our strategic priorities. Our fourth quarter and full year results show our positive trajectory and unwavering commitment to achieving our vision of refreshing the world anytime, anywhere. As we move ahead, one of our key strengths is our mutually beneficial business relationship with the Coca-Cola Company. Working together, we not only reacted rapidly and forcefully to the pandemic, but also remained focused on driving the system and our company forward. Thank you for your continued trust and support in Coca-Cola FEMSA. Operator, I would like to open up the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

All right. If you would like to ask a question, you may signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We ask that you limit your questions today to once per person, to allow everyone an opportunity to ask their question. Once again, that is star one to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment. All right, the first question is from Felipe Ucros with Scotiabank.

Felipe Ucros (Director of Equity Research)

Thank you. Good morning, John, Constantino, Matias, and Jorge. Congrats on signing the new deal. Couple of questions on my side. The relationship with Heineken, obviously, you know, it was tough over the last few years, right? A lot of lawsuits going back and forth, Heineken trying to leave the system very abruptly. So finally, you've struck a new deal, but, you know, what remains after of the relationship after a few years of, you know, going back and forth on this? How much has it suffered, really? And then my second question is on the five-year option, optional renewal clause.

I think, you know, based on the, on the messages that were sent to the market, it seems fairly evident that Heineken wants to migrate to the current system eventually. So should we assume that the intention from them is to avoid the renewal in five years, and it's more of an optionality in case things are not going well in the current distribution system? I mean, should we assume this is really five years instead of ten? Thank you.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

You want me to take that, John?

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Yeah, why don't you? You're allowed to.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Sure. Sure. Perfect. Hey, Felipe, thank you very much for your questions. I'm gonna start from your last question. That's a definite no. I mean, as we have you know shown on the press release, this is a deal that has a five-year automatic renewal clause into it. So, you know, we should see it as a minimum of a ten-year deal and not as a five-year deal. That's pretty straightforward, and I and John can comment on that, and Matias also was part of the deal structuring, can also provide some more color.

On the relationship side, I mean, my point of view, Felipe, is that in all, you know, in all business relations, there are times that are difficult, and then there are times where interests and contexts and situations align. We would have not signed the deal between, you know, such a complex system and such a intertwined set of stakeholders if our relationship amongst us was not very positive that would allow for this type of deal to be designed and implemented, so the relationship is a very professional relationship between two very, you know, successful entities, the Coca-Cola system, with its multiple stakeholders, and Heineken.

We have designed an agreement and I would say a distribution system that will be extremely beneficial for both parts, and that will provide for a platform for growth for both Heineken and the Coca-Cola system going forward. Anything else in my point of view is just mere speculation. You know, and I would prefer to focus on all the benefits and all the details of the deal rather than speculation around emotions and things that are not really you know factual, if that's the case. I don't know, John, if you want to provide more color or Matias?

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

No-

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Why don't we see you?

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Now, Matías, why don't you go ahead?

Matias Molina (Strategic Planning Director)

Yeah. I just wanted to just make it very clear, Felipe, this is not an option. It's, as we said, an automatic renewal for either of the parties. So it's definitely the case where you should assume that this is more of a ten-year deal than a five-year deal.

Felipe Ucros (Director of Equity Research)

Fantastic. That's, that's super clear. Sorry.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Felipe, I just wanted to, you know, come back to what Constantino was saying. I think this deal is a very good deal for both companies. I mean, when you start putting in place a dual distribution system in a market like Brazil, that allows for increased brand availability, liquid availability, and consumer, you know, satisfaction through an array and a more powerful portfolio, I think that's the first thing. It becomes very consumer-centric. Secondly, you know, we are excited that we are gonna have not only some base brands with us, but some international brands coming on board throughout the rest of the time period.

Three brands that we've agreed to with Heineken, but also the strategic flexibility to develop, you know, a portfolio that allows us to have, you know, a grounding in other types of beers, okay? And to be able to produce and distribute our own. So I think what we found was an alignment of interests, okay, that we hadn't been able to find before. And obviously, you know, this is gonna be a new page in our relationship with Heineken. Yes, we did come off of some tough times, but I do think it is the ability, and what we are doing this with the utmost enthusiasm to be able to win together in the marketplace. So if we didn't think that way, we would have not done it, either on our side or on their side.

I think it's gonna be a win-win for both.

Felipe Ucros (Director of Equity Research)

Well, fantastic clarity on that, John and Constantino and Matias. Thanks to the two of you for all the color. It's definitely a good win-win, and definitely very good news. We just tend to focus on the sell side a little bit, on the holes that there can be on any deal, but definitely a great deal. Maybe a short follow-up on Argentina. Very unexpected, fantastic performance, and not just from you, but from a host of consumer companies that we were not expecting, and from what I could read, not many people were expecting a great quarter in Argentina. Any color you can give us there about why that's happening?

Is the consumer, I don't know, pre-stocking ahead of higher inflation this year when price schedules are released, or what's happening? Why is Argentina doing so well, and what was generally perceived as a very tough macro crisis?

Constantino Spas (CFO)

In our case... Go ahead, John. Go ahead, John.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Yeah, I think there's three things, Felipe, that are driving those results. First of all, you're seeing, you know, an opening and more mobility of the consumer in Argentina than what you had in previous quarters. As time came by, there was more and more, you know, relaxation of restrictions, so that obviously helps all the economy. Secondly, you're seeing, you know, the economy begin to rebound, okay? From where it was.

And thirdly, you know, in our case, what we have done is, you know, really put our revenue growth management and segmentation practices in high gear, and be able to look at, you know, with laser focus going out there and hitting the right price points, promotional packages in different segments and consumers and customers that we had done during the third, and we really refined during the fourth quarters. I don't know, Constantino. You want to add to that?

Constantino Spas (CFO)

No, I think that's it. We've had, you know, as John mentioned, we had good weather. I think that in our particular case, our execution has improved phenomenally. We're implementing our digital platforms and, and all in all, the reactivation of the channels has been positive and unexpected, that it happened so quickly, in the light of the pandemic. So when you add all those variables together, we're seeing a very good recovery in Argentina, and we expect that the revenues will continue to be, you know, impacted on one side from the price controls, but there might be some potential volume upside, in the first quarter, given the positive trend that we're seeing right now.

So I think it's all in all, in a difficult context, a positive outlook for us in Argentina.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Right.

Felipe Ucros (Director of Equity Research)

Fantastic. Thanks, thanks to you guys for the call, and congrats again on the deal.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

All right. Once again, that is star one to ask a question, and if you find your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. The next question is from Lucas Ferreira with J.P. Morgan.

Lucas Ferreira (Senior Equity Research)

Hi, gentlemen. Sorry to come back to the deal once again, I think that's the topic of the day. But another question that I have there is, if you can tell us how much the brands you're now distributing account for the volumes you were distributing before? In other words, how much are you losing by not having Heineken, especially Heineken and not signing the deal? And how, what, what's your plan to replace that volume? You're already doing some other alcohol, alcoholics. Do you already have expectations for new beer brands in your portfolio? Are you negotiating with other companies apart from these international brands by Heineken?

How to think about, you know, the kind of fulfilling this, let's say, volume going forward? And the other question I have is regarding your costs. So I think that was a very interesting highlight of this quarter. But since we're seeing costs of raw materials overall increasing significantly, when do you expect those to start being sort of a headwind in your costs? So if you can remind us of your hedging positions and when we should start to see a higher cost pressure in your plans to offset those. Thank you.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you, Lucas. I'll tackle that, and then also once more, you know, John can provide some more color on the Heineken deal, if that's required. As you all know, we don't disclose the revenues or volumes in the case of our partnership with Heineken. So. But I, in the light of the question, what I would say is that we expect that the beer revenues during 2021 could decline approximately 40% year-on-year, as we adjust the portfolio, right? There's gonna be an interesting transition in this case. And our EBITDA margin across South America could be pressured by approximately 100 basis points by the previous year, which is equivalent to 50 basis points at a consolidated level.

Now, we don't lose with this deal. I think that is very important to highlight. This is a long-term play, so there's evidently a, you know, dent in our revenues in the first year, merely due to the fact of the transition of the brands. But as John highlighted, first of all, there are very solid plans, and you should be, you know, we're very prepared for a set of very good news going forward in the next few months. There's a very solid plan with Heineken, not only to reinforce the current portfolio that we were starting off with, but also by the launch of at least three international brands in the Heineken portfolio. The Heineken portfolio is very broad internationally, and there's still interesting space for different plays within the Heineken portfolio.

We should not see the current portfolio as a static one, but there is a very interesting plan with the Heineken company to continue to leverage on our commercial capabilities with a customer-centric mindset, in our case, and with a consumer-centric mindset in the case of Heineken, to develop a stronger portfolio very quickly, and enhance what we're starting off with. At the same time, it is also very important to highlight that we have very unique setup with the flexibility of adding other international brewers or local brewers, or even our own beers, within the terms of the agreement that we have set with Heineken, which will provide with a very flexible and strong platform going forward, that will allow us to have an interesting growth strategy in that particular market.

So when you look at that and you complement it with other alcoholic beverage plays, as the pilots that we're running with Diageo in some parts of Brazil, that very positive so far. You can see that we are converting our portfolio into a very customer-centric one, allowing for a broad set of alternatives for both customers and consumers. And on the other hand, with the enough flexibility to become an integrated beverage player in this particular market, and that, that's on that end. Now, we also need to understand that our primary focus is to continue to grow our non-alcoholic beverage portfolio with the Coca-Cola Company, which is our core business, and which is a, I would say, a blessing to have such a powerful portfolio and a set of alternatives for the Brazilian consumer.

All in all, I think that it's a very good deal, win-win for everyone, with a lot of flexibility and very unique in its nature. I don't know if you have any other questions around that and if that was enough, or, John, do you want to provide more color? If not, we move on to the hedging strategy and costs.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

No, Lucas, I would just say that given the flexibility that this deal provides, you know, we are speaking with other brewers, whether international or local, and obviously we'll be moving fast on that end as well. But always thinking that there's two primary purposes to our being in Brazil. First and foremost, is to grow the Coca-Cola brands, okay? And secondly, is to grow the whole pie in terms of beer. So, you know, those are the two keys for success for us in Brazil at this point, okay?

Lucas Ferreira (Senior Equity Research)

Thanks. I have other [crosstalk]

Constantino Spas (CFO)

On the cost side, Lucas, just to remind you that 20% of our COGS are in U.S. dollars. We always have had a very conservative approach in terms of the FX exposure. We have hedged the majority of our dollar needs across the different markets. This year, I think we're very aggressive in taking advantage of the decrease in prices in some commodities to establish very attractive hedges for 2021. In Mexico, we have hedged almost 50% of our USD COGS at around MXN 23 per dollar. But we have hedged around 98% of our PET needs in Mexico, at prices that are even 5% below what we paid last year.

In Brazil, for example, sugar, we hedged 57% of our sugar needs at prices that are approximately 12% lower than what we paid in 2020. And we're seeing a positive momentum in terms of raw materials, especially PET prices across our territories. So we expect all in all, we expect that raw materials will be pretty controlled during 2021, which, if we combine that with our ability to continue to extract inefficiencies out of our system, will allow us, we believe will allow us to maintain margins throughout the year. I don't know if that answers your question.

Lucas Ferreira (Senior Equity Research)

That's great, gentlemen. Thank you very much.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you, Lucas.

Operator (participant)

All right, we'll take the next question from Antonio Hernández with Barclays.

Antonio Hernández (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for the call and congrats on your results. My question is regarding your rollout of Topo Chico Hard Seltzer. Could you give a little bit of preliminary stats of how it has evolved in comparison of your initial expectations? Thanks.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Sure, Antonio. I think we've seen an impressive initial reaction from consumers. I would say the highlights are Brazil and Costa Rica. We have been focused on the premium positioning and execution of the product. It is important to highlight that this is a very different product offering in terms of its liquid configuration and the value proposition to the consumers. In the case of Latin America, an alcoholic ready-to-drink has been a market of, I would say, mostly spirit mother brand-endorsed product offerings with a very sweet, you know, product formulation. This is a lighter product, less sweet, and pretty different to what the customer has been, the consumer has been accustomed in the region.

So sampling has been part of it and continues to be, and will continue to be an important part of the strategy. I would say that's from a consumer standpoint. However, in the case of Mexico, we're seeing a much more competitive market than we expected. We have seen brewers enter the market very quickly with different offerings and some other international and local players. The on-premise limitation has also been a challenge, as you know, the most of the on-premise has been under lockdowns and restricted traffic. That is part of the competitive landscape. Where have we launched?

Just to recap, we have launched in selected cities in Mexico and Brazil, so that's also a very different approach to what we normally do in the Coca-Cola system when we launch any RTDs, right? We're doing a city approach instead of a nationwide rollout, in the initial stages. In Brazil, we started in São Paulo. In Mexico, we are already in Mexico City, Acapulco, and Puebla. Costa Rica, we've launched in San José, and coming, you know, very soon, we'll be launching in Colombia, Argentina, and Uruguay. So you know, it's an interesting experiment. We must say that the Coca-Cola system overall, and Coca-Cola FEMSA, is learning as we roll out, and gathering learnings on the alcoholic beverage sector, which is different, from the non-alcoholic sector.

But all in all, very positive, very enthusiastic, and I think that this is the first step into a very robust design of portfolio going forward.

Antonio Hernández (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thanks a lot for the color and stay safe.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Tari?

Operator (participant)

All right, we'll go ahead and take the next question from Alvaro Garcia with BTG.

Alvaro Garcia (Associate Partner)

Hi, good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for the call. I have two questions, both on the Heineken deal, and congrats on the deal. The first question, and it's been some time since we can sort of ask you openly about, you know, given the arbitration. It's really been since two thousand and seventeen, we haven't gotten a lot of color on, you know, the difference beer makes for you on the truck. And my question, more specifically, is from a client standpoint, you know, what are the types of accounts that, you know, Heineken and Amstel get to relative to the accounts that the beer portfolio you kept get to? And sort of from a digital standpoint, you know, what are some of the benefits that a complete portfolio gives you relative to only having soft drinks?

That's my first question.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Alvaro, I mean, it's clear there's gonna be two separate distribution networks, right? And, in our case, we call on approximately 450,000 customers throughout Brazil. We don't foresee any changes in the customer footprint that we have today, and our route to market will have zero alterations due to this new deal. As we said before, the core portfolio that we're keeping is a portfolio with high penetration and high coverage that allows us to have high drop sizes in the case of beer. And on top of that, we will start to add interesting plays in different segments, as we have mentioned, both on the Heineken portfolio, with some international...

interesting international brands, and with the flexibility to incorporate other brewers, international and domestic brewers, as well as the possibility of developing our own brands. So in that case, we believe that the combination of our NARTD portfolio and the beer portfolio that we'll have is more than enough to continue serving our current distribution network that we have and the set of customers that we call on. On the other side, on the digital side, all of these brands go directly to all of our digital initiatives. We have seen very positive effects of the ability of customers to order anytime, anywhere, our brands. It is...

Some interesting insights is that when customers tend to order outside of their normal operating hours, they tend to actually increase the set of SKUs that they normally order, on a pre-seller call. That's an interesting insight because it, you know, it's a reflection of the way that all of us, as consumers, are interacting with digital applications and digital order-taking possibilities, and we are not an exception at that case. So that also allows us to not only execute and segment better our our portfolio offering, but also allow us for a much deeper product offering in leveraging on the digital capabilities that we have. So that's on our side.

In the case of Heineken, it is up to them to answer your question, but from the Coca-Cola FEMSA perspective, that is what we are foreseeing in the implementation of this distribution agreement. John, Matias, I don't know if you would like to provide more color on that one.

Matias Molina (Strategic Planning Director)

No, no, I agree with you, Constantino. We do see in the very near future and almost today a full beer portfolio to attend all the premium, mainstream, and value segments in order to reach all of our customers. So I fully agree with you.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Álvaro, just one other thing. I think what you're seeing is gonna be an enhanced choice for consumers in Brazil, which is always good, and it's gonna create a whole set of different dynamics. You know, as these selections come forward, the platforms that we have in place are gonna be that much more leveraged. You know, each one of the points of sale, each one of the customers is gonna have that much more choice, and choice is always good. I think the other thing, too, to be considered, Alvaro, is it's not only about beer, okay?

We have the ability to also go out and put in, you know, the seltzer pieces and low-grade alcohols also in this, and we'll be putting those in the truck and basically also leveraging that at the different points of sale. So, you know, the explosion of brands as well as different type of beverages at a low-grade alcohol is also gonna make it a very important play. So I think, you know, what you can expect is a very dynamic, you know, very, very changing footprint in Brazil. So it's gonna make it very interesting and exciting from a competitive side.

Alvaro Garcia (Associate Partner)

That's very helpful color. And just one quick follow-up, just to clarify the 40% drop you mentioned earlier, Constantino, and the 100 basis points. Given that the agreement sort of takes place midway through the year, does that only consider half the year, or is that, or would that be the equivalent of a full year impact once this deal takes place?

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

That's a full year impact.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Makes-

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Considering that we're,

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Yeah.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Considering that we're starting at it, you know, in the second semester. Yeah.

Alvaro Garcia (Associate Partner)

Perfect. Awesome. Thank you very much.

Matias Molina (Strategic Planning Director)

Yeah. And just to clarify on that, consider that we are, as we said many times, we're planning for new launches, so half of the year incorporates Eisenbahn, but also it's waiting on the new launches to take off.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

The 40%, let's just say, basically takes into account the gross impact of this initial portfolio, but it doesn't take into account any potential initial launches. Is that fair to say?

Matias Molina (Strategic Planning Director)

It does. It does, but it's again, it's all happening in the second half of the year or depending on. We don't have exact dates. We're not disclosing that, but it's a process that has to take off.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

I would say, Alvaro, that's a conservative figure.

Matias Molina (Strategic Planning Director)

Yeah.

Alvaro Garcia (Associate Partner)

Perfect. Perfect. Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

All right. Perfect. We will go ahead and take our next question from the line of Marcella Recchia with Credit Suisse.... Please go ahead.

Marcella Recchia (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, John. Hi, Constantino. Thank you for taking my question. So, changing topics a little bit to Mexico, I have a question on the margin evolution. So basically, you closed the 2020 with an EBITDA margin at a multi-year high level, largely driven by greater OpEx reduction. So my question is, how can we think about the sustainability of this margin level, going into this year, 2021, and the evolution of OpEx expenses as well? And, a second question would be, if you can give us a trading update on how you are seeing, you know, operating trends, year to date. It would be really helpful. Thank you very much.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Sure. Thank you, Marcella. I'll tackle the first one. Listen, the main drivers of margin expansion in Mexico, I'm gonna just highlight you a few, and we strongly believe that we can sustain the margins in 2021. That's our focus and our commitment is to protect margins. So all in all, as I mentioned, we saw a very favorable raw material environment during the last months, and the PET prices have been decreasing, and we, you know, leveraged a very successful hedging strategy well into 2021. On the other hand, the combination of our Fuel for Growth program that we started way before the pandemic, that and continues to be part of our process internally.

And the fact that our teams have done an impressive job at implementing cost and expense efficiencies, primarily in maintenance, labor, and freight, makes us believe that those efficiencies are sustainable in the future and will be part of our margin structure. Additionally, as I said, we took advantage of other decreasing prices of raw materials during the last year and hedged most of them. Currently, PET and aluminum are hedged at prices that I, as I mentioned, are 5%-10% below what we paid in 2020. And at the same time, remember, and I wanna highlight that, during the last year, we had a restructuring program with severance payments related to this Fuel for Growth efficiency program.

So all in all, when we put all of this together, we believe we'll be able to protect our margins during 2021 in Mexico, and that would be our base case going forward. I don't know if that answers your question.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Yeah. Yeah, Marcella, just a couple things. I think just a couple things. You know, when you start looking at what the price mix effect has been this year, you know, you're talking about consolidated for the year, it's about MXN 9.3 billion in income. So, you know, that's something that we overcame over the period of the last 12 months. And most of that came out of, you know, expense control and what have you. But as Constantino said, this is something we've been preparing for, ironically, for the last, you know, 24 months. And just to give you a flavor for this, you know, on our Fuel for Growth project, we had, you know, supply chain reinvention as part of this.

Over the three-year period, you know, the last three years, we've had over $160 million worth of savings there. On our, you know, organization piece, we've had about $85 million worth of savings. You know, coupled with this, you know, we see that savings and our way of working going forward is sustainable and our margins are sustainable because we have been redefining the way Coca-Cola FEMSA works. Obviously, we have different initiatives. So, you know, the teams have done a great job in responding to the emergency and the pandemic, but we do see going forward, as channels come back, you know, we will continue to increase our price mix contribution. We'll also be spending more, okay?

So it's not something that's just gonna fall down to the bottom line, but margins are gonna be sustainable.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

On the trading update, Marcella. I mean, as you all know, I mean, the last month of the year was a year of a resurgence. You know, the pandemic effects with a lot of lockdowns that somehow also affected January in most of our operations. In February, we're seeing a sequential recovery and a much more positive outlook. I would say, you know, January, pretty affected. February, improving significantly, and we were lucky enough not to have so much of the effects of the low temperatures that you know we saw in the northern part of Mexico.

So from the central to the south, it was better, better weather than in the north, and that is, that is positive for us in this case. So all in all, a little bit better in February than January.

Marcella Recchia (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you very much, guys.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

All right, and we will go ahead and take our next question from the line of Miguel Tortolero with GBM.

Miguel Tortolero (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats again on the new agreement. I know that you're now allowed to look for different alcoholic alternatives to bring into the red truck. So my question would be: Where does hard liquor stands in terms of priorities in this process to find new options, an option, or would you rather look for similar agreements? And the second one, giving credit to the agreement, we have seen clear sequential improvements, but still volumes remain overall depressed, no? I know it is not an easy to answer question, but talking specifically about Mexico, when would you expect to go back to pre-pandemic volume levels? What is your base case scenario here? Thank you.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you, Miguel. Spirits definitely is part of the total beverage strategy that we have in place in Brazil. As we have mentioned in the past, we're currently running some interesting pilots with the Diageo portfolio of spirits on our red truck for particular channels and particular regions in Brazil, with great success and with a lot of learnings, and we foresee expanding that to other regions, because the results have been very, very positive, and so the answer is definitely yes. It's part of a total beverage strategy and a developmental portfolio. Here, the trick here or the art is to be able to configure the proper portfolio offering for the right set of channels and customers, right?

So spirits behave in a slightly different way than beer and definitely non-alcoholic beverages, and you need to be extremely smart in the way you set up your portfolio, in order to be efficient and effective, which is, you know, a principle for Coca-Cola FEMSA's beverage platform. It's what I call EE squared, right? So it's efficient and effective at the same time. So the answer is yes, and we're learning a lot, and we will hopefully expand more of this going forward.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

And-

Constantino Spas (CFO)

In the case of the... Yeah, John, go ahead, please.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

No, I think this, you know, as we start thinking about the Mexican volumes, you know, what we'd like to do and what our objective is, is to regain the Mexican volume levels of 2019 by the end of this year. So, you know, we have a very aggressive plan in place, but, you know, we're looking at, yes, coming in with probably the most difficult quarter, the first quarter, and then restarting to retake growth from there to the end of the year. And we have an enormous amount of initiatives. You know, a lot of it is based on affordability, as I spoke about. Continuous rollout and increased capacity on one-way returnable bottles and Botella Única. We have a lot of initiatives to deal with increasing our household penetration home routes.

We're looking at increasing our capability there by 30% in the channel that is growing by 30%. We have a whole structure, restructuring issue on the route to markets for local, for rural areas and digitizing all the rural areas, which is giving us a lot more benefits, not only economic, but also in volume. We think we have an aggressive plan in place, and our objective is to come back to 2019 volumes in 2021.

Miguel Tortolero (Analyst)

That's very useful. Thank you both.

Operator (participant)

All right, and we will take our next question from the line of Sean King with UBS. Please go ahead.

Sean King (Finacial Crimes Periodic KYC Analyst)

Hi. Hi, good morning. My question is back to Topo Chico. In the U.S., hard seltzer has a clear price point advantage to ready-to-drink, spirits-based cocktails due to the differential and excise taxes applied to beer versus distilled spirits and spirits-based cocktails. With that said, how are you seeing the price point strategy evolving for Topo Chico relative to RTD cocktails in Latin American markets?

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you, Sean, for the question. In the case of Latin America, the route that we have defined with The Coca-Cola Company is not linking ourselves to the price points or dynamics of the current alcoholic ready-to-drink offering, but more looking into the sources of volume on beer occasions. And in that regard, we have set a pricing strategy that's pretty much in line, depends on the market and on the brands in each particular market, but it's more focused on premium brands, on premium beers, rather than alcoholic ready-to-drinks.

We believe that there's an interesting source of volume there, that there is an, you know, that we resolve some consumer pain points in some of the beer occasions, and that the possibility of positioning Topo Chico in those segments has much more upside than looking at currently at the alcoholic ready-to-drink pre-mix cocktails that we have in Latin America. So that's where we're, we set our minds, that's what we're focusing on. And as I mentioned before, I would say it's a long journey because you need to establish a very different liquid profile and a very different value proposition.

Much more refreshing, I would say, easier to drink, and with some very positive consumer connotations in the product configuration, than some of the current alcoholic ready-to-drinks that we have in the market, at least in my opinion. So that's where we're focusing ourselves in the different markets. I don't know if that answers your question.

Sean King (Finacial Crimes Periodic KYC Analyst)

Yeah, that's taking sort of a beer, aligning with beer pricing or premium beer pricing seems to make sense. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Thank you, Sean.

Operator (participant)

All right. Once again, that is star one if you would like to ask a question, and our next question will be from the line of Héctor Maya with Santander. Please go ahead.

Héctor Maya (Associate Equity Research)

Hi, thank you very much for taking the questions. After your comments on the new deal with Heineken, if I understood correctly, you mentioned about developing your own alcohol brand. So, would this be only for beer, and would it only be for the Brazil portfolio? I mean, would it be in a 50/50 partnership with Coca-Cola? Just to confirm if I heard correctly, and to know what are the probabilities of this actually happening in the short term, and then you have a couple of follow-ups. Thank you.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Yeah. Thank you, Héctor. Just to... Yeah, it's a great question for clarification. So once more, this is a deal that, at its core, has the Heineken portfolio, and as we mentioned, I want to reiterate that we have very interesting plans with Heineken in order to continue to roll out new brands, international brands, into the Brazilian market, that are very successful in other parts of the world, and where we jointly believe there is an interesting space, in different, not only in different, say, price segments, but also in the type of product offerings, that we will be able to launch. So that's at the core of the deal and of the relationship.

On top of that, as we mentioned in a joint press release, we have, under the terms of the agreement, the possibility to incorporate other beers, international from other brewers or local, owned beers and own alcohol in low ABV product offerings, just as Topo Chico, in this particular case. So if we take Topo Chico, that's a reality. It's a Coca-Cola Company brand, and it's already part of our portfolio. In the case of international brewers, as John mentioned, we're starting conversations because some international brewers understand that this could be a phenomenal platform for them in Brazil. And as I mentioned in a previous question, we're also working with some spirit companies to look at high ABV spirit product offerings into our portfolio.

All in all, it's a total beverage play with a lot of flexibility, but at its core, once more, we have, on one hand, our core business, which is the Coca-Cola Company products and non-alcoholic beverages. On the other hand, in beer, a very strong relationship with Heineken, and then the possibility of expanding the portfolio, either by our own plays or with other partners, both international and domestic. I hope that clarifies and provides enough color for your analysis.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

I think, Hector, the other thing, too, is to, you know, when you start saying in collaboration with the Coca-Cola Company, yes, everything that we're doing is gonna be in collaboration with the Coca-Cola Company, you know, especially with the low ABV drinks such as Topo Chico. There's a lot of room to expand there. Even if we do other, you know, ARTDs with other brands, you know, obviously, you know, it really would be with the approval and consent and collaboration with the Coca-Cola Company.

Constantino Spas (CFO)

The last point, Hector, just to also reinforce that, this is a Brazilian deal. You know, other markets will have other treatments, and we're working on different strategies, you know, across the region, as we normally do in conjunction with the Coca-Cola Company.

Héctor Maya (Associate Equity Research)

Perfect. Thank you. That's very clear. Thank you very much. The second question would be, I mean, what are the chances that KOF will start distributing beer in Mexico? And could we expect news about this in 2021, or would it be more toward 2022? What are the probabilities there?

Constantino Spas (CFO)

Well, Hector, I think that, you know, that I would say we need to. You know, that's part of a forward, you know, forward-looking strategy, and we would not like to focus on that. I think that Mexico right now has a lot of challenges. We have a very strong position right now in Mexico with our Coca-Cola portfolio and our Jugo del Valle portfolio, and, you know, we have our hands full right now. If something comes in the future, we'll definitely, you know, talk about it in the upcoming calls. I don't know, John, if you want to mention on that.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

No, I think, you know, there's a couple things to build on, Hector, is one, is that you have a renewed focus by the Coca-Cola Company of being customer and consumer-centric, yeah? And with that, you know, understanding that bringing more and better as to availability to customers increases the ability to go out there and put out a broader portfolio of our products, and also lower the cost to serve that, you know, we incur, and obviously the benefiting of the customer and the consumer. You know, part of this whole strategy is also looking at different categories to say, you know, what are the load-sharing opportunities that are available in each one of the different markets and where it makes sense? So it's market by market, okay?

There are certain categories that are glaring, like the one you just mentioned, but I wouldn't say that, you know, it's either possible or, you know, or impossible at this point, you know, for Mexico. But I wouldn't make it that close of a call, as you're saying. I mean, we're in the exploratory mode as Constantino pointed out.

Héctor Maya (Associate Equity Research)

Okay, excellent. Thank you. And sorry, the last question, I promise this one is going to be different than the other ones, just more on the strategic side. And with the new deal that you have now with Heineken, can you share with us your process in selecting the new brands that you talk about? In other words, how will you be choosing the premium and super premium beers brand investor? What are the characteristics that you're looking for in there?

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

I'll defer that to Matias, as he is, yeah, part of.

Matias Molina (Strategic Planning Director)

So, yeah. We do have a plan already. We just can't talk too much about it. I would say that with Heineken, we have, you know, as we said before, we have three launches in the near term expected. And I would say they will be mainly on the mainstream and the premium segments, and they are already discussed with them. But we will have to wait to provide more details. But definitely, I would say we're very excited about our portfolio with them. And as was mentioned before, you know, we also have flexibility with other brewers that we will be exploring.

Héctor Maya (Associate Equity Research)

Perfect. Excellent. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Thank you, Hector.

Operator (participant)

All right, it appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Santa Maria, I'd like to turn the call back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

John Santa Maria Otazua (CEO)

Thank you. I would just say that we're tremendously excited about the conclusion of the year. I think we've made enormous progress on our first pillar, which is portfolio. The restructuring of our agreement, the realignment of our agreement with Heineken in Brazil, takes away a lot of the murkiness of what the future looks like in Brazil. And we have, as Constantino said, I think you have to think about this as a ten-year deal. We're excited about the partnerships that we can develop. Obviously, the one we have with Heineken is fundamental. Secondly, I am very excited about how well we have developed our digital strategy, with Brazil being the preeminent market for us in testing.

We are looking at, at the end of this year, we put 250,000 customers on our WhatsApp digital platforms. And at the beginning of this year, we went out and named a chief digital and technology director within Coca-Cola FEMSA, reporting to me. And we have a clear path to digitizing internal functions, processes, but more importantly, routes to markets and countries where we see a sequencing of our events and how we're gonna be building upon that. So that's extremely important for us. And I think at the end, as what Constantino said, you know, also very active in terms of looking for opportunities for continuous territorial expansion. We have a balance sheet to do that.

We have the willingness to go, and I think we have the relationship with the Coca-Cola Company to capitalize on. So I think, you know, it's a tremendous year in terms of a very complex environment. We're coming out with some enormously big structural changes and fundamental changes in the way we're, you know, we're looking as a company, and really excited about what the future brings. So thank you again for your interest in Coca-Cola FEMSA, and we'll talk again in a couple of months.