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KI

Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue declined 0.1% to $3.662B (organic +1.7% on +1.0 ppt price/mix, +0.7 ppt volume); GAAP EPS was $0.15 and Adjusted EPS $0.26 as weakness in pediatric pain and APAC distribution offset strength in Self Care ex-pediatrics and Skin Health & Beauty .
  • Gross margin expanded 80 bps YoY to 56.5% (adjusted GM down 80 bps to 58.7% due to prior-year non-recurring separation benefits); operating margin 13.2% (adjusted 19.2%) with higher brand investment funded by productivity and “Our Vue Forward” savings .
  • 2025 guide: Net sales -1% to +1% (organic +2% to +4%, ~3% FX headwind), adjusted operating margin up YoY, and adjusted EPS flat to +2% including mid-single-digit FX drag; Q1 organic sales expected to decline low single digits due to destocking, China fixes, and temporary U.S. price/trade investments, with back-half acceleration targeted .
  • Dividend declared at $0.205 per share payable Feb 26, 2025; governance backdrop includes Starboard nominations and ongoing shareholder engagement, cited but not discussed in detail on the call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Productivity and cost actions drove FY gross margin expansion (+200 bps to 58.0%; adjusted +200 bps to 60.4%), enabling ~20% higher brand investment and still delivering FY adjusted EPS of $1.14, within guidance .
    • Self Care excluding pediatric pain grew high single digits; Nicorette nearly +20%, Digestive mid-teens, Allergy high-single digits; company gained Self Care share in Q4 .
    • Skin Health & Beauty returned to volume-led growth in Q4 (+2.6% organic), with double-digit organic growth in EMEA and Latin America and U.S. regained #1 Neutrogena face-care position across channels .
    • Management tone: “We delivered on our 2024 profit commitments despite headwinds...” and plan to “accelerate performance” in 2025 supported by higher brand investments and efficiency gains .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Pediatric pain category contracted significantly (≈-40% in China; ≈-11% U.S.), producing a double‑digit decline in the franchise and masking strength elsewhere; without pediatric pain, Q4 organic growth would have been ~2 ppt higher .
    • Asia Pacific distribution disruption (secondary distributor liquidity/activation issues) drove order declines, with outsized impact on Essential Health; remediation (distributor replacement and reclaiming retailer activation) is underway and expected to take time .
    • Q4 adjusted gross margin fell 80 bps YoY to 58.7% (lapping prior-year non-recurring separation benefits) and adjusted operating margin fell to 19.2% on higher brand investments despite productivity gains .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and margins

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($B)$4.000 $3.899 $3.662
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.03 $0.20 $0.15
Adjusted Diluted EPS (non-GAAP)$0.32 $0.28 $0.26
Gross Margin % (GAAP)59.1% 58.5% 56.5%
Adjusted Gross Margin %61.6% 60.7% 58.7%
Operating Margin % (GAAP)3.9% 16.8% 13.2%
Adjusted Operating Margin %22.8% 22.1% 19.2%

Segment net sales (YoY comparison)

Segment Net Sales ($M)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Self Care1,537 1,569
Skin Health & Beauty1,001 1,011
Essential Health1,128 1,082
Total3,666 3,662

Geographic mix (Q4 YoY)

Region Net Sales ($M)Q4 2023Q4 2024
North America1,762 1,842
EMEA822 863
Asia Pacific750 635
Latin America332 322
Total3,666 3,662

KPIs (mix vs. volume; period-over-period contributions)

KPIFY 2024Q4 2024
Organic Sales Growth %1.5% 1.7%
Price/Mix (ppt)+2.7 +1.0
Volume (ppt)-1.2 +0.7
Effective Tax Rate (GAAP)27.2% 15.3%
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate25.5% 17.7%
Interest Expense, net ($M)378 95

Non-GAAP reconciliations and additional detail (adjustments by type) are provided in the 8-K/press release .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales YoY changeFY 2025N/A-1% to +1%Initiated
Organic Sales GrowthFY 2025N/A+2% to +4%Initiated
FX impact to Net SalesFY 2025N/A~3% headwindInitiated
Adjusted Operating Income MarginFY 2025N/AImprove YoYInitiated
Adjusted Diluted EPS GrowthFY 2025N/AFlat to +2% (incl. mid‑single‑digit FX drag)Initiated
Adjusted Effective Tax RateFY 2025N/A25.5%–26.5%Initiated
Organic Sales cadenceQ1 2025N/ADecline low single digitsNew (cadence disclosure)
DividendNext paymentN/A$0.205/sh payable Feb 26, 2025Declared

Notes: Guidance excludes potential 2025 tariff impacts; management has contingency plans but did not embed tariffs in the outlook .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2–Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Supply chain productivity and gross marginGM expansion driven by productivity and value realization; “Our Vue Forward” savings funding A&M Continued productivity; FY GM +200 bps; Q4 adjusted GM -80 bps YoY on prior non-recurring benefit and mix/inflation Structurally improving; Q4 mix/inflation headwinds
Self Care and seasonalityVolumes soft; price/mix supported growth; share gains highlighted in Q3 Strong ex‑pediatrics; Nicorette ~+20%, Digestive mid‑teens, Allergy HSD; pediatrics a large drag Mixed: ex‑pediatrics strong; pediatrics weak
Skin Health & Beauty trajectoryEarly recovery signs; focus on innovation and brand building Volume-led +2.6% organic; EMEA/LATAM strong; U.S. regained #1 Neutrogena face care Improving
APAC route-to-marketDistributor disruption in China; replacing underperformers; reclaiming activation with retailers Corrective actions underway
RGM/pricing and trade investmentsValue realization key in H1–Q3 Select U.S. price reductions and higher trade in H1 to improve competitiveness; negative U.S. value realization near term; RGM COE and trade spend tech roll-out Short-term margin/top-line headwind; long-term mix/volume benefit targeted
AI/technology in planningAI-driven tools in integrated business planning to enhance forecasting and agility New capability
Macro/tariffsTariffs excluded from guide; mitigation playbook ready (alt sourcing, pricing potential) Risk monitored
Shareholder/governanceStarboard nominations acknowledged; no further comment on call Ongoing engagement

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We delivered on our 2024 profit commitments despite headwinds that resulted in softer than expected sales growth and we enter 2025 as a more competitive company with stronger foundations.”
  • CEO on pediatrics drag: “Total company organic sales growth without [pediatric pain] would have been about 2 points higher in the fourth quarter and about 1 point higher for the full year 2024.”
  • CFO on cadence: “Combined, [destocking and strategic price investments] will account for a 3- to 4-point headwind in the first quarter…organic sales to decline low single digits in Q1…much stronger in the back half.”
  • CFO on 2025 profitability: “These combined savings will more than offset the investments…As a result, we’re planning for adjusted operating margin to expand year-over-year.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Near-term top line and cadence: Q1 organic sales decline LSD from pediatrics destocking, China RTM remediation, and stepped-up U.S. trade; Q2 moderates; back half stronger (absent Q4’24 headwinds and with initiatives taking hold) .
  • Category growth: Expect 2–3% category growth in 2025 with less pricing contribution versus 2024; private label penetration broadly flat to down in aggregate .
  • Pricing and trade: Temporary U.S. negative value realization in H1 from selective price reductions/trade; expect positive value realization in H2 outside U.S.; funded by efficiencies and modest GM accretion .
  • Margin cadence: More muted in H1, improving into Q3; typical seasonal pattern with Q3 stronger and customary Q4 plant costs .
  • Tariffs: Exposure mainly U.S./Canada; levers include alternate sourcing and potential pricing; not included in guidance .
  • China distribution: Replacing weak distributors; reclaiming retailer activation for better visibility/execution .
  • Cash conversion: 2024 FCF $1.3B vs $2.7B in 2023; progressing but not reaching 90–100% conversion in 2025 due to separation/IT investments; line of sight thereafter .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) for Q4 2024 was not retrievable at time of analysis due to a rate limit, so we cannot present a beat/miss vs Street here (attempted via S&P Global GetEstimates; unavailable). As a result, we anchor to company-reported actuals only and note that near-term Street models may need to reflect management’s Q1 low-single-digit organic decline and back-half weighted recovery commentary .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term setup: H1 headwinds from pediatrics destocking, China RTM remediation, and U.S. price/trade investments pressure growth/margins; Q1 organic LSD decline is guided—be cautious on early-2025 prints .
  • Back-half acceleration: Management expects stronger H2 on normalization of pediatrics seasonality, China execution improvements, distribution gains, and more impactful innovation and media; adjusted operating margin targeted to expand in 2025 despite FX .
  • Mix and pricing: Temporary negative U.S. value realization in H1 should give way to positive global value realization in H2; monitor elasticity and competitive response to selective price cuts .
  • Regional watchpoints: EMEA/LATAM remain growth engines; Asia Pacific recovery hinges on distributor transition and retailer activation control; track APAC sales/volume normalization .
  • Self Care resilience ex‑pediatrics: Strong momentum across Nicorette, Digestive, and Allergy suggests underlying demand health; recovery in pediatrics and seasonality will be a key quarterly swing factor .
  • Margin drivers: Ongoing productivity, “Our Vue Forward” savings and planning/AI tools aim to fund higher brand investments and still expand adjusted operating margin; monitor gross margin cadence and A&M efficiency .
  • Policy/FX risks: Guide excludes tariffs; FX a ~3% headwind to 2025 top line and mid-single-digit drag to EPS—watch USD and tariff implementation headlines for estimate revisions .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Q4 effective tax rate 15.3% (adjusted 17.7%); full-year ETR 27.2% (adjusted 25.5%) .
  • Net debt at Dec 29, 2024: $7.5B (cash $1.1B; total debt $8.6B) .
  • Dividend declared: $0.205/share payable Feb 26, 2025 .
  • Shareholder engagement: Company acknowledged Starboard’s nominations and prior discussions; no call commentary beyond focusing on results and outlook .

All figures are company-reported GAAP or non-GAAP as indicated; see 8-K and press release for reconciliations and definitions .