Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

LI

loanDepot, Inc. (LDI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue rose 14% q/q to $323.3M, with adjusted revenue at $325.2M; adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $48.8M; net loss narrowed to $8.7M .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, Q3 revenue beat by ~$10.4M, while EPS missed (Primary EPS actual -$0.0135 vs -$0.0133 consensus). Bolded for emphasis: Revenue beat; EPS miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Guidance for Q4 calls for origination $6.5–$8.5B, PTW locks $6.0–$8.0B, and PTW GOS margin 300–325 bps (lower vs Q3 guidance); CFO flagged higher volume-related expenses in Q4 .
  • Strategic narrative: leadership reshaping, renewed focus on Consumer Direct, and early AI deployment to drive efficiency and margin recovery; cash increased by $51M to $459M as liquidity strengthened .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue and margin improved: pull-through weighted GOS margin rose to 339 bps; adjusted revenue up to $325.2M; adjusted EBITDA up to $48.8M; net loss narrowed q/q .
  • Servicing fee income increased q/q; UPB grew to $118.2B; cash rose to $459M, reflecting stronger balance sheet and liquidity .
  • Management execution and AI: “introducing AI capabilities to some of our most repeatable and scalable call center functions, both improving performance and driving down cost” — CEO Anthony Hsieh .

What Went Wrong

  • Total expenses rose 6% q/q to $333.6M, with non-volume expenses higher due to absence of Q2 one-time benefits; preliminary recapture rate fell to 65% from 70% .
  • Servicing fair value headwinds persisted (changes in fair value, net): -$46.2M in Q3 (though hedging offsets some volatility) .
  • Q4 outlook implies lower PTW GOS margin (300–325 bps) vs Q3 guidance and rising volume-related costs, tempering near-term profitability trajectory .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Margins (YoY and QoQ)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$314.6 $282.5 $323.3
Adjusted Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$329.5 $291.9 $325.2
Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)$2.7 $(25.3) $(8.7)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.01 $(0.06) $(0.02)
Adjusted Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)$7.1 $(16.0) $(2.8)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$63.7 $25.6 $48.8
Gain on Sale Margin (%)3.33% 3.11% 3.61%
PTW GOS Margin (%)3.29% 3.30% 3.39%

Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus (reported period)

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)$312.94*$323.3 Beat
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.01331)*$(0.0135)*Miss
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)4 / 6*——
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Segment/Channel Mix — Origination Volume by Type ($USD Millions)

TypeQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Conventional Conforming$3,254.7 $2,967.9 $2,841.2
FHA/VA/USDA$2,564.8 $2,617.0 $2,498.7
Jumbo$300.1 $422.7 $444.9
Other$539.7 $726.9 $749.1
Total$6,659.3 $6,734.5 $6,534.0

Origination Volume by Purpose ($USD Millions)

PurposeQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Purchase$4,378.6 $4,263.8 $3,949.9
Refi - Cash Out$1,954.1 $1,978.1 $2,136.1
Refi - Rate/Term$326.7 $492.6 $448.0
Total$6,659.3 $6,734.5 $6,534.0

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Rate Lock Volume ($USD Billions)$9.792 $8.561 $9.463
PTW Lock Volume ($USD Billions)$6.748 $6.348 $6.971
Purchase Mix (%)66% 63% 60%
Organic Refi CD Recapture Rate (%)—70% 65%
Servicing Fee Income ($USD Millions)$124.1 $108.2 $111.8
Change in FV of Servicing Rights, Net ($USD Millions)$(56.6) $(52.4) $(46.2)
Servicing UPB ($USD Billions)$114.9 $117.5 $118.2
60+ Delinquencies ($USD Billions / %)$1.655 / 1.4% $1.641 / 1.4% $1.715 / 1.5%
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$483.0 $408.6 $459.2

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Origination Volume ($USD Billions)Q3 2025$5.0–$7.0 Actual $6.53 Met (within range)
PTW Rate Lock Volume ($USD Billions)Q3 2025$5.25–$7.25 Actual $6.97 Met (within range)
PTW GOS Margin (bps)Q3 2025325–350 Actual 339 Met (within range)
Origination Volume ($USD Billions)Q4 2025—$6.5–$8.5 New
PTW Rate Lock Volume ($USD Billions)Q4 2025—$6.0–$8.0 New
PTW GOS Margin (bps)Q4 2025—300–325 Lower vs prior quarter guidance range
Total ExpensesQ4 2025—“Expected to increase” Higher
Effective Tax Rate (assumption for non-GAAP)Ongoing25.39% 25.39% Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/Technology InitiativesAdded Chief Digital Officer and Chief Innovation Officer; tech-led efficiency focus “Introducing AI capabilities” in call center functions to lower cost and improve performance Accelerating deployment
Consumer Direct FocusMulti-channel strategy highlighted; home equity drove margins in Q1 Renewed emphasis on Consumer Direct; reassembled leadership, revenue ops under Chief Strategy Officer Refocus and rebuild
Macro/Interest RatesRate environment impacted servicing revenue; margin improvement noted Q4 guidance reflects volatility, seasonality, affordability constraints; upside if rates decline Cautious near term
Servicing/RecaptureServicing fee income fell YoY; recapture rose to 65% in Q1 UPB up; recapture 65%; desire to grow MSRs while managing cash Stabilizing with hedging
Capital Structure & LiquidityCash $371M in Q1; $409M in Q2 Cash $459M; warehouse lines renewed; exploring ATMs/debt refi options Improving liquidity; exploring options
Regulatory/Legal (Cyber Incident)Ongoing costs and insurance recoveries referenced Cyber-related adjustments persist in non-GAAP reconciliations Legacy issue tailing off

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We are pivoting the use of new and emerging technologies across sales, operations, and software engineering… improve the customer experience while driving improved productivity and lower our cost of production.”
  • CEO: “Consumer Direct Lending… tech-powered, at-scale… best-in-class lead generation… top-tier customer recapture rates… distinct advantage to rapidly invest in and deploy emerging technologies.”
  • CFO: “Pull-through weighted gain on sale margin… 339 bps… higher contribution from our direct channel… expenses would have increased ~2% excluding non-recurring items.”
  • CFO: “Q4 total expenses expected to increase… we ended the quarter with $459 million in cash.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital structure and funding growth: warehouse renewals largely complete; supportive lenders; evaluating ATMs or debt refinancings over next 12–18 months .
  • MSR strategy: desire to grow servicing book given strong recapture; balancing cash demands with cost of production and rate cycle timing .
  • Profitability sensitivity: margins and volume are highly dynamic; margin expansion expected with volume recovery .
  • Equity raise considerations: management evaluated capital raising at higher stock levels; options remain “in flight” .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs consensus: revenue $312.94M* vs actual $323.3M (beat); Primary EPS -$0.01331* vs actual -$0.0135* (miss). Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Trajectory: consensus for Q2 2025 had revenue $315.79M* vs actual $281.35M* (miss); Q3 2024 consensus $275.99M* vs actual $363.66M* (beat). Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Note: S&P Global “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP diluted EPS ($-0.02 in Q3 2025) used in press materials ; use S&P for estimate comparisons per methodology.
MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)$275.99*$315.79*$312.94*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$363.66*$281.35*$335.36*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$(0.04289)*$(0.03473)*$(0.01331)*
Primary EPS Actual ($USD)$0.0213*$(0.077)*$(0.0135)*
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating leverage is improving: adjusted EBITDA up 90% q/q; margin mix benefited from higher direct channel share .
  • Near-term caution: Q4 guidance lowers PTW GOS margin to 300–325 bps and points to higher expenses; watch margin resilience amid seasonality and rate volatility .
  • Liquidity strengthened: cash up to $459M; warehouse capacity $4.2B with $1.8B borrowing capacity supports pipeline conversion .
  • Strategic pivot to Consumer Direct and AI should sustain cost reductions and recapture-driven economics as rates decline; monitor adoption curve and throughput gains .
  • Servicing hedging dampens earnings volatility; UPB growth supports fee income, but fair-value marks remain rate-sensitive .
  • Estimate recalibration likely: revenue beat vs S&P, but EPS miss on “Primary EPS”; expect revisions to margin and expense trajectory ahead of Q4 .
  • Trading implications: potential positive sentiment on revenue/margin trajectory and liquidity, offset by Q4 margin guide and expense outlook; catalysts include evidence of AI-driven efficiency, rate declines, and capital-structure actions .