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    LINDE (LIN)

    LIN Q2 2025: Backlog to Exceed $7B, Record EPS and Margins

    Reported on Aug 1, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$460.26Last close (Jul 31, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$458.33Open (Aug 1, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-1.93(-0.42%)
    • High‐Quality Backlog & Execution: Linde’s rigorous, disciplined criteria for project inclusion has built a strong backlog—with expectations to add an additional $1B to exceed a $7B target—demonstrating a robust pipeline and the ability to monetize projects efficiently.
    • Emerging Growth in the Space Segment: With a longstanding history in supporting the U.S. space industry, Linde supplies more than four out of five launches and is investing nearly $1B in new infrastructure, reflecting significant growth potential in an expanding and technologically promising market.
    • Sustained Pricing and Margin Resilience: Linde has consistently achieved positive pricing aligned with globally weighted CPI, underpinning record-high EPS and operating margins, which supports strong profitability even in a challenging macro environment.
    • European Weakness: The outlook for Europe remains bearish due to softening demand and declining industrial activity, with forecasts indicating negative volumes throughout the second half of the year.
    • Declines in Base Volumes: Linde’s base volumes are down by approximately 2% year-over-year, which could continue to pressure margins and EPS if the trend persists.
    • Segment-Specific Pricing Pressures: Although overall pricing remains positive, certain segments such as helium are experiencing high single-digit pricing declines due to oversupply, which may negatively impact profitability.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    EPS

    Q3 2025

    $3.95 to $4.05

    $4.1 to $4.2

    raised

    EPS

    FY 2025

    $16.20 to $16.50

    $16.3 to $16.5

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Consistent Project Backlog & Pipeline Growth

    Q1 discussed a strong $10B backlog with long‐term, high‐quality sale-of-gas projects ; Q4 highlighted a record backlog over $10B with diversified projects and acquisition initiatives ; Q3 emphasized a record $10B+ backlog with robust pipeline wins and strong conversion

    Q2 detailed a $7.1B backlog concentrated in the Americas, strong project pipeline execution, and future growth confidence

    Consistently strong focus with a maintained and even sharpened geographic and sectoral emphasis in Q2.

    Stable Pricing Power and Margin Expansion

    Q1 highlighted pricing tracking with inflation, global pricing stability, and a 120-basis point margin improvement through cost and productivity actions ; Q4 stressed strong pricing power from global networks and quoted margin expansion targets ; Q3 noted positive pricing trends across base gases despite some deflationary pressures

    Q2 emphasized historical pricing stability, despite segment-specific pressures in helium in China, and achieved a 30.1% operating margin with expectations for further margin expansion

    Consistent pricing stability and margin improvement, with Q2 reinforcing the same disciplined approach amid regional challenges.

    Recurring Volume and Demand Challenges amid Macroeconomic and Regional Weakness (Europe, China)

    Q1 reported weak industrial activity in Europe and softness in China despite pockets of strength ; Q4 described flat base volumes with softer volumes in EMEA and seasonal factors in Asia, compounded by FX impacts ; Q3 pointed to declining industrial volumes driven by European weakness and mixed signals from China

    Q2 noted Europe is expected to continue softening and China remains a mixed bag with high single-digit declines in helium pricing, confirming ongoing demand challenges

    The headwinds remain persistent over periods with Q2 maintaining cautious outlooks in key regions.

    Persistent FX and Currency Risk Impacts on Earnings

    Q1 reported FX headwinds averaging 3% with volatile currency effects impacting SG&A and earnings ; Q4 cited a 2% FX headwind in results and expected a 4% headwind in 2025, influenced by regional currency devaluations ; Q3 described a roughly 1% negative impact on EPS and adjustments in guidance due to strengthening of the U.S. dollar

    Q2 disclosed a 3% sequential FX improvement with anticipation of a 1% tailwind in Q3, though maintaining a cautious stance amid economic uncertainty

    A modest improvement in FX conditions appears in Q2, yet the inherent volatility and cautious outlook remain consistent over time.

    Ongoing Technological Innovation and Productivity Enhancements (digital, AI, decaptivation)

    Q1 detailed extensive AI and digital initiatives – from predictive telemetry to over 105 AI use cases driving 30–32% of productivity efforts ; Q4 emphasized digital and AI innovation as key contributors to operating efficiency and margin stability ; Q3 mentioned decaptivation projects in India and consistent productivity projects alongside cost reductions

    Q2 contains no mention of technological innovation, digital or AI enhancements [N/A]

    Previously a strong focus, but notably absent in the Q2 discussion, indicating a diminishing or deprioritized mention in the current period. [N/A]

    Steady Clean Energy Transition with Low‑Carbon Hydrogen Opportunities

    Q1 emphasized a strategic focus on low‑carbon (blue) hydrogen supported by 45Q incentives with cautious green hydrogen participation ; Q4 discussed clean hydrogen projects and global pipeline across regions, underpinned by the 45Q provision and multi-phase investments ; Q3 highlighted a major blue hydrogen project with Dow and reiterated a selective, economically viable approach for hydrogen opportunities

    Q2 reaffirmed commitment to the clean energy transition with steady low‑carbon hydrogen opportunities, highlighting supportive incentives and measured regulatory progress

    The clean energy focus remains consistent and robust, with Q2 reinforcing selective and economically driven low‑carbon hydrogen development.

    Emerging Investment in the Space Segment

    Q1, Q4, and Q3 did not mention space investments [N/A]

    Q2 introduced significant investments in the space segment, noting a historical role in over four out of five U.S. launches, quadrupled revenues over three years, and nearly $1B in planned infrastructure investments

    A new topic in Q2 with strong growth potential, emerging as an important strategic focus that was not discussed in previous periods.

    New Regulatory Uncertainty and Green Energy Funding Pullback

    Q1 addressed regulatory challenges in Europe and a strategic pullback from overly hyped green hydrogen, reinforcing a focus on economically viable low‑carbon projects ; Q4 discussed regulatory uncertainties, cautious partner negotiations, and reliance on stable 45Q incentives despite funding pullback ; Q3 mentioned cancellations of green hydrogen projects due to unclear incentives and regulatory delays

    Q2 referenced a measured regulatory uncertainty in Europe with pragmatic target setting and clearly noted a pullback in green energy funding, reinforcing focus on cost-effective low‑carbon alternatives

    The topic persists with an evolving emphasis: while uncertainty and funding pullback remain concerns, Q2 underscores a pragmatic, economically driven approach.

    Increasing Competitive Dynamics and Peer Strategy Influences

    Q1, Q4, and Q3 did not provide specific details on competitive dynamics or peer strategy influences [N/A]

    Q2 briefly noted competitive dynamics in project bidding, with Linde highlighting customer “make or buy” decisions and selective project pursuits in a competitive landscape

    A minor, emerging mention in Q2 suggesting that competitive positioning is gaining attention, albeit not a major focus.

    Diminishing Emphasis on Workforce Cost Reduction Initiatives

    Q1 indicated a strategic shift from heavy workforce cuts to broader productivity via AI and operational improvements ; Q3 noted active cost reduction including a 2% workforce reduction as part of broader initiatives ; Q4 did not prominently feature the topic [N/A]

    Q2 does not mention workforce cost reductions at all [N/A]

    The absence of discussion in Q2 suggests a diminishing emphasis on workforce reductions, possibly indicating a strategic pivot toward technological and operational productivity. [N/A]

    Evolving Dynamics in the Electronics Sector Demand and Recovery

    Q1 highlighted resiliency in the electronics sector with strong project wins (e.g., Samsung in South Korea) and onshoring trends in the U.S., amid mixed regional demand ; Q4 discussed a significant portion of the backlog (20%) being driven by electronics projects and noted expectations for recovery from destocking events ; Q3 described sequential growth and normalization after temporary destocking in advanced materials

    Q2 outlined robust electronics end market growth with continued year-on-year and sequential improvement, a healthy pipeline, and sustained recovery despite some declines due to destocking in the advanced materials segment

    The electronics sector remains a consistent bright spot, with steady recovery and onshoring momentum confirmed in Q2 while overcoming temporary setbacks.

    1. Global Outlook
      Q: How are global regions performing going forward?
      A: Management noted Americas remain stable with a strong U.S. market, Europe facing softening demand, and APAC overall flat with growth in India, reflecting a balanced but regionally varied outlook.

    2. Pricing Outlook
      Q: Will weak macro block future price increases?
      A: They expect pricing to stay positive, tracking globally weighted CPI with only minor exceptions in China, maintaining disciplined pricing across regions.

    3. Tax Legislation
      Q: Do U.S. tax changes affect earnings forecasts?
      A: The new tax act makes several policies permanent and reinstates bonus depreciation, improving cash tax benefits and enhancing IRRs by roughly 100bps.

    4. Europe EBIT & Helium
      Q: What drives Europe EBIT growth and helium pressures?
      A: Double-digit EBIT growth is driven by strong FX tailwinds, pricing, and productivity, while helium volumes remain flat with only a high single-digit pricing decline, reflecting minimal exposure.

    5. Margin Mix
      Q: Why are margins lower in The Americas despite positive volume?
      A: Management highlighted that the blend of on-site and merchant contracts creates a mix effect, with expectations of 30–50bps margin expansion as operations normalize.

    6. Backlog Projection
      Q: Could backlog fall below target levels?
      A: Despite starting up about $1B in projects this half, confidence remains to finish above a $7B backlog based on strong pipeline execution.

    7. Europe Long-Term Outlook
      Q: What are Europe’s long-term volume expectations amid deindustrialization?
      A: While volumes are expected to decline in the near term, strategic investments like Germany’s €1tn infrastructure stimulus and potential Ukraine rebuild support a gradual recovery.

    8. Space Conversion
      Q: When will merchant contracts convert to on-site in space?
      A: The space segment is promising, with nearly quadrupled revenue and strong long-term customer commitments expected to transition on-site over the next few years.

    9. Gas Project Return
      Q: Has the return profile of gas projects improved?
      A: Through rigorous project assessment and efficient execution, the return profile remains robust, underpinning solid EPS growth from the sale of gas projects.

    10. Electronics Outlook
      Q: Is the electronics volume dip temporary or lasting?
      A: Temporary challenges in the Advanced Materials segment are expected to correct in the second half, with a healthy pipeline for new electronics projects.

    11. Energy Transition
      Q: Will low carbon projects remain a significant backlog share?
      A: Despite fading hype, economically grounded low-carbon projects continue to secure contracts, ensuring ongoing momentum in the energy transition.

    12. Volume Guidance
      Q: Are current volume declines signaling further weakness?
      A: Base volumes dipped 2%, but FX fluctuations and broader economic uncertainty mean management remains cautiously optimistic in its guidance.

    13. European Infrastructure
      Q: How critical is Linde’s role in Europe’s recovery plans?
      A: Linde is deeply involved in policy discussions, benefiting from significant commitments, like Germany’s €1tn stimulus, positioning it well for long-term industrial recovery.

    Research analysts covering LINDE.