Executive Summary

Strong beat and raise: Revenue $15.56B (+38% YoY) vs S&P Global consensus $14.67B*, and non-GAAP EPS $6.31 vs $5.59*, with gross margin expanding to 85.0% non-GAAP; FY25 guidance raised on revenue, margins and EPS .
Incretin engine driving the print: Zepbound $3.38B (+172% YoY) and Mounjaro $5.20B (+68% YoY) offset lower realized prices; U.S. revenue $10.81B and OUS $4.74B .
Capacity and share momentum: management produced >1.6x sellable incretin doses in 1H25 vs 1H24 and targets ≥1.8x in 2H25 vs 2H24; U.S. incretin Rx share >57% .
Watch near‑term headwinds: CVS PBM exclusion of Zepbound called out as a Q3 growth headwind; employer anti‑obesity coverage steady at ~50–55% opt‑in .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Broad-based topline and margin strength: Revenue +38% YoY to $15.56B; non‑GAAP EPS +61% to $6.31; non‑GAAP gross margin 85.0% (+300 bps YoY) and non‑GAAP performance margin 45.9% .
Incretin execution and share gains: “Share of market reaching above 57%,” with Zepbound as U.S. leader in branded anti‑obesity and Mounjaro now U.S. market leader in total T2D incretin prescriptions .
Pipeline catalysts: positive SURPASS‑CVOT cardioprotection for tirzepatide; orforglipron ATTAIN‑1 met primary and all key secondary endpoints (up to 12.4% mean weight loss; simple once‑daily pill with GI profile consistent with class) .

What Went Wrong

Pricing pressure: Price was a 6% headwind to total revenue growth (U.S. price down 8%); management highlighted continued net price erosion dynamics .
Access friction: CVS PBM exclusion of Zepbound disrupted patient access and will be a Q3 growth headwind; employer opt‑in coverage for obesity benefits remains ~50–55% .
Policy/compounding overhang: Ongoing debate on U.S.–EU price parity, compounding risks, and potential Canadian semaglutide generics impacting cash‑pay channels; management expects single‑digit net price erosion and continues DTC options via LillyDirect .

Financial Results

Headline metrics (chronological order: oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($B)	$11.30	$13.53	$12.73	$15.56
EPS (Reported)	$3.28	$4.88	$3.06	$6.29
EPS (Non‑GAAP)	$3.92	$5.32	$3.34	$6.31
Gross Margin % (Reported)	80.8%	82.2%	82.5%	84.3%
Gross Margin % (Non‑GAAP)	82.0%	83.2%	83.5%	85.0%

Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue Consensus ($B)	$13.43*	$12.72*	$14.67*
Revenue Actual ($B)	$13.53	$12.73	$15.56
Beat / (Miss) ($B)	+$0.10	+$0.01	+$0.90
EPS Consensus (Primary EPS)	$5.07*	$3.54*	$5.59*
EPS Actual (Non‑GAAP)	$5.32	$3.34	$6.31
Beat / (Miss) ($)	+$0.25	-$0.20	+$0.72
EBITDA Consensus ($B)	$6.21*	$5.05*	$6.89*
EBITDA Actual ($B)	$6.28*	$5.87*	$7.60*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Geography and key products

Breakdown	Q2 2024	Q2 2025	YoY
U.S. Revenue ($B)	$7.83 [inferred from totals; see note]	$10.81	+38%
Outside U.S. Revenue ($B)	$3.47 [inferred from totals; see note]	$4.74	+37%
Mounjaro ($B)	$3.09	$5.20	+68%
Zepbound ($B)	$1.24	$3.38	+172%
Verzenio ($B)	$1.33	$1.49	+12%

Note: Q2 2024 regional splits are derived by subtracting OUS from total where applicable; totals cited in Q2 2025 8‑K provide the YoY growth rates and composition .

Q2 2025 KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025
U.S. incretin analog Rx market growth YoY	+41%
Lilly share of U.S. incretin market	>57%
Zepbound cash‑pay vials as % of total / new TRx	~20% / >35%
Zepbound vial TRx (Q2)	~1.1M
Incretin sellable doses produced	>1.6x 1H25 vs 1H24; ≥1.8x 2H25 vs 2H24 (target)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (May 1, 2025)	Current Guidance (Aug 7, 2025)	Change
Revenue	FY 2025	$58.0–$61.0B	$60.0–$62.0B	Raised
Performance Margin (Reported)	FY 2025	40.5%–42.5%	42.0%–43.5%	Raised
Performance Margin (Non‑GAAP)	FY 2025	41.5%–43.5%	43.0%–44.5%	Raised
Other Income/(Expense) (Reported)	FY 2025	($850)–($750)M	($750)–($650)M	Less expense
Other Income/(Expense) (Non‑GAAP)	FY 2025	($700)–($600)M	Unchanged	Maintained
Tax Rate (Reported)	FY 2025	~17%	~19% (U.S. tax legislation)	Raised
Tax Rate (Non‑GAAP)	FY 2025	~17%	Unchanged	Maintained
EPS (Reported)	FY 2025	$20.17–$21.67	$20.85–$22.10	Raised
EPS (Non‑GAAP)	FY 2025	$20.78–$22.28	$21.75–$23.00	Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2: Q4’24; Q-1: Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Incretin capacity & supply	2025 plan: ≥1.6x salable doses in 1H25 vs 1H24; multi‑billion capacity investments . Q1’25: accelerating manufacturing; four new facilities announced .	Produced >1.6x in 1H25; target ≥1.8x in 2H25; two new U.S. facilities locations to be announced .	Improving capacity, accelerating build‑out
Access/coverage	Q1’25: LillyDirect expands; Zepbound vial doses and savings .	CVS PBM exclusion is a headwind; employer opt‑in ~50–55% and evolving plan designs .	Mixed: growing DTC offset by PBM friction
Pricing/macro	2025 guide framed under existing tariffs .	Modest tariff impact embedded; CEO: pursue U.S.–EU price rebalance; expect single‑digit net price erosion; continue DTC for gaps .	Policy debate ongoing; net price pressure persists
Product performance	Q4’24: Zepbound and Mounjaro drove +45% revenue . Q1’25: +45% revenue; strong Mounjaro, Zepbound .	Zepbound $3.38B, Mounjaro $5.20B; U.S. incretin share >57% .	Sustained outperformance
R&D execution	Q4’24: SURMOUNT‑5 positive; multiple oncology/immunology readouts . Q1’25: orforglipron Phase 3 in T2D positive .	SURPASS‑CVOT cardioprotection for tirzepatide; ATTAIN‑1 obesity positive; pirtobrutinib H2H vs ibrutinib positive .	Multiple late‑stage wins
Neuroscience (Kisunla)	Q4’24: China approval . Q1’25: CHMP opinion statement .	CHMP positive opinion; U.S. label update; steady launch trajectory, >1,500 physicians initiated patients .	Building adoption

Management Commentary

“Revenue grew 38%… driven by our key products… we gained market share in the incretin analog class for the fourth quarter in a row… Mounjaro… became the market leader in the U.S. in total prescriptions within the Type 2 diabetes incretin market.”
“We produced more than 1.6x the amount of salable incretin doses during the first half of 2025… We expect to produce at least 1.8x the number of sellable incretin doses in the second half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024.”
CFO: “Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 85%… non‑GAAP performance margin… 45.9%… earnings per share increased 61% to $6.31, including a negative impact of $0.14 from acquired IP R&D charges.”
On pricing and policy: “We’ve… a philosophy… to price to value… expect single‑digit erosion in net pricing… continue to offer consumer‑level pricing… as long as we have such a large hole in coverage.”

Q&A Highlights

Orforglipron positioning: Management emphasized meaningful efficacy (up to 12.4% mean weight loss; 27 lbs at 72 weeks) with simple once‑daily dosing and class‑consistent GI profile; expects ATTAIN‑2 to set up obesity submissions by year‑end .
Pricing/compounding: CEO reiterated safety concerns with compounding and advocated for U.S.–EU price rebalance while maintaining value‑based pricing and utilizing DTC to bridge access gaps .
Channel dynamics: CVS PBM exclusion viewed as a near‑term headwind to growth rate, but overall Zepbound performance across covered and cash‑pay segments remains strong (cash‑pay vials ~20% total TRx; >35% new) .
Employer coverage: Opt‑in remains ~50–55% with evolving benefit designs to reduce friction; management working to expand access .
Cash‑pay strategy: LillyDirect framed as a bridge while coverage scales; contributes meaningfully to performance .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 delivered broad beats: Revenue $15.56B vs $14.67B* (+$0.90B) and non‑GAAP EPS $6.31 vs $5.59* (+$0.72); EBITDA $7.60B* vs $6.89B* .
Prior quarters were largely in line to better on revenue, mixed on EPS in Q1 due to IPR&D and tax; management raised FY25 ranges reflecting momentum and FX tailwinds .