LNC Q2 2025: Group Margins +100bps, Target 9%+ in 2025
- Strong group margin expansion: Management highlighted that the group business, particularly through the growth in the local market and supplemental health products, is driving margin improvements—targeting roughly 9%+ margins for 2025 and achieving over 100 basis points of improvement from strategic repricing and operational enhancements.
- Robust RILA product performance: The Q&A emphasized that RILA sales increased by 32% YoY, with enhanced product features and broader distribution channels driving market share gains, which bodes well for the sustainable growth of the annuity segment.
- Enhanced free cash flow potential: Executives discussed that the strategic deployment of excess capital—including the Bain Capital transaction—holds promise for boosting free cash flow conversion and long‑term value creation, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the stock.
- Margin Vulnerability: There is a risk that the current favorable trends in life, disability, and group margins could reverse if incidence rates revert toward historical levels, potentially eroding the 100 basis point margin improvement expected for 2025.
- Stable Value Outflow Pressure: Continued negative stable value flows in Retirement Plan Services are already pressuring earnings, and if they persist or worsen, they could have an outsized impact on near-term profitability and run rate earnings.
- Execution Uncertainty in Strategic Initiatives: The ongoing restructuring of the LifeCaptives and potential external reinsurance transactions add uncertainty regarding timing and quantitative impact on earnings and free cash flow, with concrete benefits likely delayed to next year.
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free Cash Flow Conversion | 2026 | no prior guidance | 45% to 60% for 2026 | no prior guidance |
Net Flows (RPS) | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | anticipated to turn positive in Q3 2025 | no prior guidance |
Spreads (RPS) | 2H 2025 | no prior guidance | expected to move back toward Q1 2025 levels in 2H 2025 | no prior guidance |
Alternative Investment Returns | Q2 2025 | no prior guidance | 10% annualized return in Q2 2025 | no prior guidance |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Group Margin Expansion & Vulnerability | Previously discussed in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ), with emphasis on strategic drivers (supplemental health, repricing, local markets) and noted concerns over loss ratio volatility. | In Q2 2025, Lincoln highlighted 100 basis points of margin improvement driven by supplemental health and local markets while cautioning about life and disability loss ratio volatility ( ). | **Consistent focus on margin expansion continues, but there is an emerging emphasis on the potential impact of volatility on future performance. ** |
Free Cash Flow Performance and Guidance Uncertainty | Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ) emphasized improved free cash flow conversion and updated guidance targets. | Q2 2025 emphasized strong cash flow generation with maintained guidance in the 45%–60% range and clarity around strategic capital deployment ( ). | **The focus remains steady on free cash flow performance with evolving targets and a clearer link to strategic initiatives. ** |
RILA/Annuity Product Performance and Sustainability | Across Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ), strong sales growth, diversification and market share improvements were noted. | Q2 2025 reported robust annuity sales with record results, strong sequential RILA growth, and continued product mix diversification ( ). | **Sustained product performance with growing market share and enhanced sustainability remains a key pillar. ** |
Strategic Initiatives and Reinsurance/Operational Restructuring | Discussed in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ), focusing on optimizing operations, diversifying product mix, and reinsurance optimization. | Q2 2025 detailed initiatives to optimize the operating model, expand group benefits, restructure legacy portfolios, and refine reinsurance strategies ( ). | **The strategic overhaul is consistent, with continued focus on operational efficiency and capital optimization. ** |
Capital Strength, Leverage Reduction, and Share Repurchase Strategy | Highlighted in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ) with strong RBC ratios and improvements in leverage, along with strategic repurchase discussions. | Q2 2025 reported a robust RBC above 420% bolstered by the Bain Capital transaction, though share repurchase plans were not prominently updated ( ). | **Capital strength and deleveraging continue to improve, while share repurchase discussions have become more cautious. ** |
Life Business Mortality Outcomes and Assumption Review | In Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) discussions ranged from elevated mortality concerns to disciplined reserve reviews. | Q2 2025 noted modest mortality improvements with some fluctuations and highlighted policyholder measurement adjustments, but provided less detail on the annual review process ( ). | **A shift is evident from earlier elevated mortality concerns toward normalized outcomes and favorable reserve remeasurement. ** |
Market Volatility Impact on Fee Income and Alternative Investment Returns | Q1 2025 ( ) discussed fee income pressures and below-target alternative returns; Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) focused on strong alternative investment performance. | Q2 2025 acknowledged fee income variability due to equity volatility while reporting alternative investments delivering 10% annualized returns that supported earnings ( ). | **Exposure to market volatility persists, but improved alternative returns indicate better risk management. ** |
Group Protection Business Performance and Premium Growth Concerns | Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ) emphasized strong earnings, margin expansion, and disciplined premium growth. | In Q2 2025, record earnings, improved loss ratios, and a 7% premium increase were reported, supported by targeted growth in supplemental health and local markets ( ). | **The business consistently achieves strong results with a focus on profitable, rather than aggressive, premium growth. ** |
Strategic Capital Deployment and Transaction-Related Initiatives | Discussed in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ) with emphasis on solid capital deployment strategies and strategic transactions. | Q2 2025 outlined a clear deployment strategy leveraging excess capital, expanding group benefits, and optimizing the legacy portfolio, reinforced by the Bain Capital transaction ( ). | **The narrative remains focused on strategic capital allocation with transaction-related initiatives continuing to drive long-term growth. ** |
New Product Innovation (Lincoln Level Advantage 2.0) | Only addressed in Q3 2024 ( ), where its launch contributed significantly to RILA sales with unique features. | Not mentioned in Q2 2025, suggesting a temporary shift in focus or a maturation of the new product. | **While it emerged as a growth driver in Q3 2024, current reporting shows less emphasis, indicating either stabilization or strategic realignment. ** |
Exposure to Universal Life Secondary Guarantee (ULSG) Risks | Touched upon in Q3 2024 ( ) with discussion around past reinsurance deals and the non-reliance on a new transaction. | Not mentioned in Q2 2025, indicating a reduced emphasis or successful management of this risk. | **A decreased focus on ULSG risks suggests that previous concerns have been effectively managed. ** |
Substantial Net Loss Impact (no longer emphasized) | Previously detailed in Q1 2025 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ) with large net loss figures driven by market risk impacts. | Not mentioned in Q2 2025, which appears to downplay this issue in the current narrative. | **The diminished emphasis on net loss impact indicates improved financial performance and confidence in the hedge program. ** |
Stable Value Outflow Pressure in Retirement Plan Services | Discussed in Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ), and Q3 2024 ( ) highlighting persistent outflow challenges. | Q2 2025 noted moderated stable value outflows with expectations that net flows will turn positive in Q3, buoyed by robust sales momentum ( ). | **Consistent challenges are being mitigated as outflow pressures ease, indicating an improving outlook. ** |
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Margin Outlook
Q: Will margins continue improving after this year?
A: Management expects local markets and supplemental health initiatives to persist, delivering about a 100 basis points improvement and targeting roughly 9%+ group margin for 2025 through strong underwriting and favorable incidence trends. -
Free Cash Flow
Q: Will Bain boost free cash flow conversion rates?
A: They indicated that while the deployment of Bain Capital will occur over the next 18 months, it is expected to support a higher free cash flow conversion long-term, consistent with the 45–60% 2026 guidance. -
RILA Performance
Q: What drove the RILA sales and flows change?
A: Management highlighted a 32% year-over-year jump in RILA sales, driven by renewed product features and expanded distribution, with natural policy outflows expected as the block matures. -
LifeCaptives
Q: When will restructuring of LifeCaptives impact results?
A: They are still refining the details; any meaningful earnings and free cash flow impact from the restructuring is expected to materialize next year rather than this quarter. -
Distribution Strategy
Q: How is distribution driving group growth?
A: Investments in digital tools and focused teams across local, regional, and national segments are enhancing broker relationships and will continue to drive profitable group growth. -
External Reinsurance
Q: What is the plan for external reinsurance capital use?
A: They are evaluating opportunities focused on legacy life blocks, with the possibility of shedding risk or unlocking capital if market conditions remain robust, leveraging their excess capital. -
Remeasurement Gains
Q: What caused the GAAP remeasurement gains this quarter?
A: Improved disability outcomes and better-than-expected loss ratios, reflecting favorable incidence and claim recoveries, drove the $104M remeasurement gain. -
RTS Pipeline
Q: How strong is the RTS sales pipeline?
A: With a 50% year-over-year increase in first-year sales and healthy deposit growth, the RTS pipeline is robust despite pressures from stable value outflows, and measures are in place to ease earnings pressure in the near-term.
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