LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORP (LPX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• LPX delivered a clean quarter with consolidated net sales flat at $724M, Adjusted Diluted EPS of $1.27 and GAAP diluted EPS $1.30; Siding grew 11% YoY and expanded margins, more than offsetting OSB weakness; results were above Wall Street consensus on EPS, revenue, and EBITDA. Bold beat: EPS +$0.09 vs S&P consensus; revenue +$16M; EBITDA +$21.6M *.
• Management raised FY25 Siding outlook to ~$1.7B revenue and $425–$435M Adjusted EBITDA, and guided Q2 Siding revenue to $445–$455M (~26% margin), while cutting OSB EBITDA outlook on commodity price softness; consolidated FY25 Adjusted EBITDA reset to $535–$555M .
• Capital allocation remained active: $61M buybacks (0.6M shares), $64M capex, and a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share; liquidity was ~$1.0B at quarter-end .
• Near-term stock catalysts: robust Siding order file “on pace for a record” Q2 driven by ExpertFinish growth and share gains, alongside tariff uncertainty pressuring OSB pricing and mix .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Siding revenue +11% YoY to $402M on 9% higher volumes and 2% higher prices; segment Adjusted EBITDA +17% to $106M with ~26% margin; “Siding order file is on pace for a record second quarter” .
• ExpertFinish momentum: management highlighted “records for both volume and revenue in ExpertFinish” in Q1; Naturals Collection launched at IBS to extend differentiated color palette and strengthen R&R positioning .
• Liquidity and capital returns: $1B liquidity at quarter-end; $61M buybacks and $0.28 dividend declaration, reinforcing confidence and flexibility amid macro/tariff noise .

What Went Wrong

• OSB headwinds: net sales -15% YoY to $267M on 11% lower prices and 4% lower volumes; segment Adjusted EBITDA fell to $54M from $90M YoY as commodity prices softened and mix shifted away from Structural Solutions .
• Tariff impact: ~$2M EBITDA headwind in Siding during Q1 with management assuming ~$12M full-year headwind if the regime persists; adds uncertainty to pricing and margins .
• Consolidated profitability down YoY: Adjusted EBITDA declined $20M to $162M despite Siding strength; GAAP net income fell $17M to $91M; gross margin compressed YoY (mix and OSB pricing) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Quarters and Prior Year

Notes: Adjusted metrics are non-GAAP as defined in company exhibits and reconciliations .

Margins (S&P Global)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025)

KPIs (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “LP's Siding business delivered 11% revenue growth and margin expansion in the first quarter… Siding order file is on pace for a record second quarter.” — Brad Southern, CEO .
• “Tariff impact… about $2M for Siding in Q1… if current regime continues through year-end… about $12M headwind.” — Brad Southern .
• “Siding orders are on pace to set new records for both volume and revenue… EBITDA margin of about 26% implies $110–$120M.” — Alan Haughie, CFO .
• “We enjoy the added flexibility of $1 billion in liquidity… focused on safety, efficiency, product innovation, share gains.” — Brad Southern .

Q&A Highlights

• Drivers of Siding outperformance vs single-family starts: strength across R&R and new construction; shed demand recovery; home center sell-through strong despite inventory drawdown .
• Siding margin trajectory: management’s guidance conservative; expects margin expansion into 2026 as capacity investments hit later; Q2 margins likely above Q1 given mix/pricing .
• OSB competitive dynamics: added industry capacity amid affordability focus; commodity pricing falling; structural solutions seeing mix headwind; cautious near-term view .
• ExpertFinish profitability: pricing strong; margins below average today but targeted to converge over time; continued growth opportunity .
• Market share gains with large builders: program-based wins likely to be “chunky,” with long runway and active pursuit of conversions; “Outside Lennar, there’s a lot of upside” .

Estimates Context

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implication: LPX delivered broad beats vs consensus in Q1 on EPS (+$0.09), revenue (+$16M), and EBITDA (+$21.6M), driven by Siding volume/price/mix strength offsetting OSB weakness *.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Siding remains the growth and margin engine: 11% revenue growth and ~26% EBITDA margin with a record Q2 order file expected; ExpertFinish and BuilderSeries are key drivers .
• Guidance pivot: FY25 Siding raised; OSB lowered on commodity weakness; consolidated FY25 EBITDA lowered but underpinned by Siding resilience .
• Tariff overhang manageable: ~$12M assumed FY headwind; company highlighted contingency plans and $1B liquidity to mitigate impacts .
• Capital returns intact amid investment: continued dividend ($0.28) and buybacks, alongside ~$410M capex to expand Siding capacity and unify operations under new President .
• Near-term narrative: watch Q2 execution on Siding records and panel/home center mix, OSB pricing prints, and any tariff developments; beats vs consensus reinforce positive estimate revision risk on Siding while OSB remains a drag *.
• Medium-term thesis: strategic integration and product innovation (Naturals) support durable share gains in R&R and large builders; margin expansion potential as ExpertFinish margins converge and capacity ramps .
• Risk monitor: commodity OSB prices, affordability pressures, tariff changes, and currency impacts (LPSA) could create volatility in consolidated results .