LAM RESEARCH CORP (LRCX) Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY2025 delivered strong topline and profitability: revenue $5.17B, GAAP gross margin 50.1%, non-GAAP gross margin 50.3%, and non-GAAP EPS $1.33; EPS exceeded guidance range and gross margin set a post‑Novellus record .
- Mix tailwinds: record foundry systems revenue, upgrades at a new high, China revenue up to 35% of total; deferred revenue rose ~$670M q/q to $2.68B .
- September quarter guidance: revenue $5.20B ± $300M, gross margin ~50% ±1ppt, operating margin ~34% ±1ppt, EPS $1.20 ± $0.10; tax rate expected to revert to low–mid teens from 4.8% in June .
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was exceeded: revenue $5.00B*, EPS $1.21* vs actual $5.17B/$1.33; management also flagged December quarter revenue and gross margin softness (mix, tariffs) as a cautionary near‑term catalyst .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Gross margin and EPS beat: non-GAAP GM 50.3% and EPS $1.33, with CFO noting “record gross margin percentage of 50.3%” and EPS above guidance; CEO: “strong gross margins and record EPS” .
- Foundry momentum and upgrades: record foundry systems revenue (52% of systems), upgrades at a third consecutive record driven by NAND layer conversions for AI requirements .
- Strategic product wins: Mali ALD metal deposition adoption in foundry logic and NAND; Akara conductor etch wins in DRAM; advanced packaging and copper plating share gains (Sabre 3D +~5 pts YoY) .
- CEO quote: “Our gross margins exceeded 50%… EPS hit a new high… upgrades business grew to a new high” .
What Went Wrong
- Near-term softness ahead: management guided December quarter revenue down (mirroring March) and gross margin ~48% (“mix” and “tariffs” headwinds) .
- DRAM systems mix down sequentially to 14% (from 23%): timing of projects; logic & other at 7% of systems, down q/q .
- CSBG Reliant weakness: Reliant declined; management reiterated CSBG “modest” growth for calendar year with Reliant headwinds offset by upgrades/spares .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS, and Margins vs Prior Periods and Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global (consensus)*
Segment Revenue Breakdown
Geographic Mix (% of Total Revenue)
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Notes:
- Management expects stronger China revenue in September and tariff headwinds to increase in December; OI&E remains variable .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Revenues and profitability came in at the upper end of our guided ranges. Our gross margins exceeded 50%… and EPS hit a new high for the company… upgrades business grew to a new high… as NAND customers migrate to higher layer count” .
- CFO: “June quarter gross margin came in at 50.3%… these past two quarters represent Lam’s highest gross margin percentage since we merged [with Novellus] in 2012… EPS exceeded the guidance range” .
- CEO on Mali: “We are the only company with ALD Mali tools already in production in foundry logic… secured a key win at another leading foundry customer” .
- CFO on December outlook: “You should be thinking about where consensus is today, which is about 48% [gross margin]… December revenue [will be] down… mix is a little bit softer… tariffs are a little bit higher” .
Q&A Highlights
- China dynamics: Multinationals in China grew >90% q/q; September quarter China up; December normalization and tariff headwinds expected .
- Revenue/GM trajectory: December quarter expected down vs September, GM ~48% per CFO, reflecting customer/product mix and tariffs .
- NAND upgrade cycle: Management reiterated ~$40B multi‑year NAND upgrades; drivers include higher layers (200+), carbon gap fill, Mali ALD; upgrades + new tools mix .
- Advanced packaging/HBM: AP business likely stronger than planned; HBM transition (3E→4E) increases wafer needs (~30% more wafers) and WFE intensity; Sabre 3D plating share rising .
- Foundry/GAA: Record foundry systems revenue; gate‑all‑around, backside power, dry resist seen as multi‑year SAM expansion and share gain drivers .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global (consensus)*
- Results were above consensus for both revenue and EPS; management also noted EPS exceeded guidance range, and gross margin reached 50%+ for the second straight quarter .
- Implications: Consensus models likely adjust higher for near-term margins/revenue in September given guidance, but incorporate December caution (mix/tariffs) and CSBG Reliant softness .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 FY2025 was a clean beat: revenue and EPS above S&P consensus with non‑GAAP GM at 50.3%—a post‑Novellus record .
- Momentum in foundry (GAA) and advanced packaging plus NAND upgrade cycle underpin outperformance vs WFE; strategic wins in Mali ALD and Akara conductor etch broaden SAM and share .
- September guide is solid (rev ~$5.2B, GM ~50%) with stronger China; however, management flagged December revenue/GM softness (~48%) from mix and tariffs—model seasonality accordingly .
- CSBG mix shift: upgrades/spares strong, Reliant down on China restrictions; expect modest CSBG growth for the year despite Reliant headwinds .
- Balance sheet/cash generation robust: OCF $2.55B in the quarter, cash $6.39B, deferred revenue $2.68B providing visibility; inventory turns and DSO improved .
- Capital return continues: dividend raised 13% to $0.26/share (effective Oct 15), $7.5B buyback authorization remaining; share count trending down .
- Product/news catalysts in Q4 period: TEOS 3D advanced packaging tool launch and JSR/Inpria cross‑license for EUV dry resist strengthen long‑term positioning in AI era .
Appendix: Source Documents
- Q4 FY2025 8‑K 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1 press release with full financials and guidance .
- Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
- Prior quarter press release and transcript (Q3 FY2025) .
- Prior quarter press release (Q2 FY2025) .
- Other relevant press releases (dividend increase; TEOS 3D; JSR/Inpria collaboration) .