Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong growth in the coffee segment, with coffee beans growing 40% this year and over 50% in Q4, driven by functional coffees that offer differentiation in the marketplace and meet consumer demand. The company is innovating in this area with products like performance mushroom coffees, and is experiencing strong uptake in both wholesale and online channels.
- Despite supply constraints leading to approximately $1 million in lost sales in Q4, the underlying demand remains robust, with the company expecting to recapture these sales as supply issues are resolved by the end of Q1. Management is confident in achieving 20% to 25% growth in 2025, supported by expanding supply chain capabilities and strong consumer demand.
- The successful transition to a larger-sized liquid creamer product has been completed with minimal inventory waste and no significant loss of distribution. This product has potential to expand into the conventional retail channel over the next couple of years, representing a significant growth opportunity beyond current expectations.
- Supply chain constraints and stockouts are impacting sales: The company experienced stockouts during Q4 2024, leading to estimated lost sales of about $1 million. These stockouts, particularly in coconut milk powder products, are expected to continue into Q1 2025, potentially affecting revenue growth. Supply chain issues may persist, posing a risk to meeting growth targets.
- Gross margin pressure due to commodity inflation: Significant inflation in key commodities like coffee and coconut milk powder is putting pressure on gross margins. The company is willing to trade off a few gross margin points to maintain market share, which could lead to lower profitability. This strategy may impact their ability to sustain gross margins in the high 30% range as projected.
- Uncertainty around new product performance: Growth projections rely on the success of new products like the upsized liquid creamer, but it's too early to gauge performance. The company admits it's "too early to tell" and hasn't significantly incorporated this product into the 20%-25% net sales growth guidance for 2025. If these products underperform, it could hinder the company's ability to achieve growth targets.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | +26% (from $9.207M to $11.606M) | Revenue grew by 26% YoY in Q4 2024, driven by improvements in sales performance across channels. This growth likely reflects continued expansion initiatives and stronger market demand compared to Q4 2023, similar to prior periods where channel-specific improvements contributed to revenue gains. |
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) | +30% (from $5.491M to $7.124M) | COGS increased nearly 30% YoY primarily due to higher sales volumes driving higher production costs. While there may have been efforts to lower product costs through direct procurement or cost efficiencies, the increase in volume outweighed these benefits, continuing a trend seen in earlier periods where volume growth increased material costs. |
Selling, General & Administrative | +35% (from $3.657M to $4.959M) | SG&A expenses rose by 35% YoY as higher personnel costs, professional fees, and possibly increased marketing or strategic investments contributed to elevated general costs. This marks a shift from previous periods where spending was reduced for efficiency, indicating a deliberate investment that affected short-term expense levels. |
Operating Income | Reversal from $46K profit to -$477K loss | Operating results reversed sharply from a marginal profit in Q4 2023 to a significant loss in Q4 2024. Despite revenue growth, the disproportionate increases in both COGS and SG&A expenses eroded profitability, similar to past challenges where higher costs offset revenue gains and hurt operating margins. |
Net Income | Reversal from $142.9K profit to -$398.4K loss | Net income swung dramatically from a modest profit to a notable loss YoY. The combination of rising production and operating expenses, which previously were managed to maintain profitability, led to a reversal in bottom-line performance in Q4 2024. |
Earnings Per Share (Basic) | Reversal from $0.02 to -$0.04 | EPS worsened significantly, mirroring the net income deterioration. The change reflects the underlying shift from profitability to loss, driven by increased costs that overwhelmed the revenue growth improvements, continuing the negative trend reported for Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Net Sales Growth | FY 2025 | 20% to 25% top‐line growth | 20% to 25% | no change |
Gross Margins | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | high 30s | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | targeting breakeven adjusted EBITDA | no prior guidance |
Operating Cash Flow | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | negative $1 million to $2 million operating cash flow | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Supply Chain Constraints and Inventory Management | Previously discussed across Q1–Q3 with a lean, just‐in‐time approach, improved inventory management, and modest stockouts managed via backstops and supplier diversification. | Q4 focused on significant stockouts for coconut milk powder costing $1M in sales, with efforts to onboard additional raw material suppliers and a forecast to resolve issues by early Q2 2025. | Increasing demand pressure with ongoing efforts to bolster supply chain resilience. |
Commodity Inflation and Gross Margin Pressure | Q1–Q2 saw actions like better procurement (e.g., improved coconut milk powder pricing) and margins around 40–42%, while Q3 reported a strong gross margin (43%) driven by cost‑saving initiatives. | In Q4, inflationary pressures—especially in coffee—are highlighted with Q4 gross margin near 39% and a willingness to trade margin for market share. | A shift from margin improvements to addressing commodity price pressures impacting Q4 margins. |
Product Innovation and Diversification (including liquid creamer upsizing) | Q3 emphasized upsizing (50% larger liquid creamer with associated pricing and operational adjustments) and new SKU launches, while Q1 had little detail and Q2 hinted at early-stage innovation initiatives. | Q4 provided detailed coverage of the liquid creamer upsizing execution—minimal waste and operational success—but noted uncertainty in translating volume increases to sales, impacting near-term growth estimates. | Consistent focus on innovation with heightened scrutiny on new product performance in Q4. |
Emergence of Functional Coffees | Q1 mentioned strong growth in performance mushroom coffees on Amazon; Q3 expanded on functional coffee products featuring adaptogenic mushrooms driving online and grocery growth. | Q4 reiterated strong consumer demand with coffee products growing 40%–50% and clear differentiation in functional benefits, reinforcing category strengths. | A sustained and reinforcing growth trend with robust performance across e-commerce and wholesale channels. |
Channel Expansion and Retail Penetration | Q1 detailed healthy growth in Amazon, DTC, and wholesale; Q2 and Q3 emphasized expansion into new channels and mainstream retailers alongside digital growth. | Q4 continued aggressive expansion with new distribution deals (e.g., Kroger, Safeway/Albertsons) and record e‑commerce performance, solidifying dual-channel success. | Steady and aggressive expansion across both online and brick‑and‑mortar channels. |
Growth Targets and Heavy Marketing Investment Strategies | Q1 reported 22% net sales growth and stepped‑up DTC and wholesale performance; Q2 and Q3 maintained 20%–25% growth targets with evolving promotions and cautious yet strategic marketing investments. | Q4 reaffirmed 20%–25% net sales growth for 2025 with heavy marketing spend on key channels (including innovative subscription tactics) and willingness to trade margin for volume growth. | Consistent high growth aspirations paired with a gradual shift in marketing strategies toward efficiency and subscriptions. |
Liquidity Concerns and Working Capital Management | Q1–Q3 consistently reported strong liquidity with cash levels between $7.3–$7.8M, no debt, strategic credit facilities, and effective inventory reductions and cash flow generation. | Q4 reported an improved cash position ($8.5M), continued positive cash flow, yet anticipates modest negative operating cash flow in 2025 due to planned inventory investments. | Sustained financial discipline with incremental liquidity improvements and planned investment trade‑offs. |
Pricing and Promotion Strategy Shifts (transition from heavy discounting to subscription models) | Q1 detailed a move from reactive discounting to a subscription focus (50% of DTC sales) and reduced discounting; Q2 and Q3 reinforced fewer, strategically timed promotions driving better margin protection. | Q4 emphasized that nearly half of DTC sales now come from subscriptions with further reductions in trade spend, reflecting a mature, full‑price orientation and strategic pricing adjustments. | A steady evolution toward subscription-based revenue and premium positioning, reducing reliance on discounts. |
New Product Performance Uncertainty | No mention in Q1–Q3; previous discussions focused on established product performance and new SKU introductions without explicit uncertainty notes. | Q4 introduced specific uncertainty around the liquid creamer upsizing’s sales performance, expecting 80% translation of volume units and identifying it as an early-stage metric for 2025 growth targets. | An emerging concern in Q4 highlighting caution in the performance translation of new product initiatives. |
Brand Awareness and Product Placement Challenges | Q1 indirectly acknowledged challenges with consumer awareness in conventional channels; Q2 and Q3 explicitly discussed early-stage awareness efforts and strategic product placement across channels and geographies. | Q4 did not provide new commentary on these challenges. | Emphasis peaked in Q2–Q3 with active initiatives; lack of mention in Q4 may indicate stabilization or lower prioritization. |
Delayed Conventional Grocery Channel Entry | Q1 noted that entry into conventional grocery is considered a “last destination,” about a year away from full commitment. | Q3 mentioned upcoming placements with major retailers (Kroger, Albertsons, Wegmans), while Q4 did not update on this topic. | Initial caution in Q1 eased slightly by Q3 with imminent expansion, though Q4 silence leaves current status less explicit. |
Hydration Business and Daily Greens Focus (no longer emphasized) | Q1 featured the hydration business driven by Daily Greens and the related Daily Reds launch, emphasizing consumer retention and cost competitiveness. | Q2–Q4 made no mention of hydration or Daily Greens, indicating reduced emphasis. | A clear de‑emphasis over time, shifting focus away from hydration/Daily Greens after Q1. |
Shifting Sentiment on Amazon Growth | Q1 initially reported moderate expectations that evolved into unexpected 48% growth, driven by improved inventory and marketing execution. | Q2, Q3, and Q4 showcased ever-stronger performance (80% in Q2, 133% in Q3, record quarter in Q4) with consistently robust recovery and strategic gains. | A dramatic and sustained positivity shift—from initial skepticism to record growth—with each quarter reinforcing Amazon’s critical role. |
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Stockouts Impact on Revenue
Q: Did stockouts affect Q4 or mainly Q1, and timeline to resolve?
A: Jason explained that stockouts began in Q4, particularly with coconut milk products, costing them about $1 million in lost sales [0]. They prioritized subscribers and key customers, slowing down marketing to manage supply [0]. They've identified new suppliers and expect a more robust supply by the end of Q1, reaffirming their 20–25% growth guidance for the year despite early challenges [0]. -
Gross Margin Outlook Amid Inflation
Q: Will gross margins step down in early 2025 due to inflation?
A: Anya stated they intend to maintain gross margins in the high 30% range [2]. While commodity costs are rising, they've taken pricing actions, including a $1 price increase on coffee products [2]. They're willing to trade off a couple of margin points from previous levels in the 40s to favor market share and top-line growth [2]. -
New Liquid Product's Growth Contribution
Q: How is the new liquid product factored into growth targets?
A: Jason noted it's too early to tell but the transition to the new sizing went exceptionally well with minimal inventory waste [3]. They expect less than a one-to-one unit translation despite a 50% volume increase, anticipating around 80% of prior unit volumes [3]. They have high hopes for the product and believe it could lead to outperformance, but it's too early to adjust their 20–25% revenue growth guidance materially [3]. -
Coffee Category Performance
Q: What's driving the strong growth in coffee products?
A: Jason highlighted that their coffee solutions, including functional coffees and lattes with performance mushrooms, grew 40% this year and over 50% in Q4 [1]. The growth is driven by strong consumer demand both online and in wholesale channels [1]. They've implemented a $1 per bag price increase to manage escalating coffee costs while focusing on gross margin dollars over percentages [1]. -
Long-Term Coconut Supply Constraints
Q: Is there a ceiling on coconut milk powder supply?
A: Jason assured that they barely dent the global coconut supply and are not worried about long-term constraints [4]. The main issue is their stringent quality requirements, which slow down supplier qualification [4]. They anticipate resolving current supply challenges by the end of Q1 and are confident in recapturing lost sales over the next 4–6 weeks [4].
Research analysts covering Laird Superfood.