Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp (LUCK)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 FY2025 revenue was $300.1M (-1.8% y/y) with Same Store Revenue down 6.2%; Adjusted EBITDA was $98.8M (32.9% margin) and GAAP net income was $28.3M .
• Against external estimates, EPS of $0.10 modestly beat by $0.01 while revenue missed by ~$15.9M; S&P Global consensus was unavailable due to API limits, so comparisons use public sources noted below .
• Management reiterated FY2025 guidance in Q2 (Revenue $1.23–$1.28B; Adj. EBITDA margin 32–34%), declared a $0.055 dividend, and disclosed $56M of buybacks (5.1M shares) through Jan 31, 2025 .
• Strategic cadence: new center openings and the Boomer’s acquisition continued; corporate events softness and calendar shifts weighed on comps, but leagues and retail walk‑in remained resilient per management .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Opened four new Lucky Strike centers (two Denver, Beverly Hills, Ladera Ranch); Beverly Hills and Ladera Ranch each generated >$1M revenue in first 30 days, underscoring product-market fit. “They represent an evolution of our best-in-class product that underscores our position as leaders in consumer entertainment” — CEO Thomas Shannon .
  • Continued portfolio expansion: acquired one bowling location, six FECs and one water park in the quarter; total locations 364 as of Feb 5, 2025 .
  • Cost/earnings quality: Adjusted EBITDA of $98.8M with 32.9% margin; GAAP net income of $28.3M vs. a loss in prior year quarter, aided by lower earnout liability revaluation y/y .

• What Went Wrong

  • Same Store Revenue fell 6.2% y/y; corporate events paused amid election uncertainty; Thanksgiving timing shortened the holiday events window; New Year’s Eve shifted to Q3 this year vs. Q2 last year, pressuring comps .
  • Revenue declined 1.8% y/y to $300.1M, missing third-party consensus by ~$15.9M (S&P Global unavailable; see public estimate sources) .
  • Sequentially, subsequent Q3 delivered only modest top-line growth (+0.7% y/y) and lower Adjusted EBITDA vs. prior year, indicating continued macro/event headwinds into spring .

Financial Results

Headline metrics vs. prior periods and estimates

Segment revenue (Q2 year-over-year)

KPIs and operating drivers

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Prepared remarks (press release): “We began the quarter with the corporate events business on hold due to concerns over the election outcome... Thanksgiving falling later... shortened the corporate holiday events window by about a third... New Year’s Eve fell into our next quarter vs being in the second quarter last year.” — Thomas Shannon, Founder & CEO .
• Strategic positioning: “They represent an evolution of our best-in-class product that underscores our position as leaders in consumer entertainment.” — Thomas Shannon on new builds in Beverly Hills and Ladera Ranch .
• Seasonal asset mix: “Boomer’s... operate at losses during the winter periods and generate significant cash flow during the summer months.” — CFO Bobby Lavan .

Q&A Highlights

• Estimates/beat-miss framing: Third-party trackers cite Q2 EPS of $0.10 (beat by $0.01) and revenue miss of ~$15.9M, with call participants focused on the cadence of events, comps cadence, and integration synergies .
• Corporate events normalization: Analysts probed the pace of recovery post-election and calendar normalization; management highlighted leagues stability and expected seasonal uplift from parks/FECs (context from PR and subsequent Q3) .
• Capital allocation: Questions around buybacks and dividend sustainability addressed by cash generation/seasonality and pipeline of high-ROI growth projects (context from PR) .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus was unavailable due to API rate limits at time of analysis.
• Public sources indicate: EPS $0.10 (beat by $0.01) and revenue $300.07M (miss by ~$15.93M) for Q2 FY2025; Yahoo Finance preview cited revenue consensus at ~$318.83M ahead of the print .
• Implications: Modest EPS outperformance with top-line under-delivery suggests potential near-term estimate mix shifts (stable margins but lower comps on events). Street revisions likely pivoted to summer parks-driven seasonality and rebrand ramp (see Q3 and Q4 commentary) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Macro/calendar noise masked underlying resilience: leagues and retail walk-in held, while events are poised to normalize as calendar shifts reverse and corporate demand returns .
• Expansion remains the core growth lever: new premium formats delivered strong early revenue; rebrand and acquisitions build multi-season engines (parks/FECs), with integration benefits typically realized over 12–18 months .
• Profitability quality is solid despite comp pressure: 32.9% Adj. EBITDA margin in Q2; Q4 showed 29.5% as mix and one-time items flowed through; margin recovery should follow integration and event normalization .
• Capital returns ongoing: $56M buybacks in place and $0.055 dividend declared for Q2; flexibility supported by liquidity and revolver capacity (see Q2 cash and facilities) .
• Watch list for next quarter: corporate events booking curve, SSR inflection, summer parks contribution, and cadence of Lucky Strike rebrand to 100 locations target (from Q4 update) .
• Near-term trading setup: headline revenue miss vs third-party consensus offset by EPS beat and reiterated FY25 guide; subsequent commentary in Q3/Q4 emphasized summer acceleration and rebrand momentum, framing a “macro-normalization + integration” recovery narrative .

Additional primary sources and references

• Q2 FY2025 8‑K/Press Release (full doc and exhibits): results, segment mix, non‑GAAP reconciliations, balance sheet and liquidity .
• Q3 FY2025 Press Release: results and guidance policy update .
• Q4 FY2025 8‑K/Press Release: quarterly and FY results, FY2026 outlook ranges .
• Q2 FY2025 earnings call transcript (public source) .
• Q2 FY2025 release timing press notice (Business Wire) .