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LS

Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp (LUCK)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY2025 revenue grew 6.1% year over year to $301.18M, modestly above S&P Global consensus*, while GAAP EPS missed as tax expense and interest weighed; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $88.73M with a 29.5% margin . Revenue consensus: $295.07M*; EPS consensus: -$0.101 vs actual: -$0.363* (significant miss) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
  • Same-Store Revenue (SSR) remained negative (-4.1% YoY) but improved sequentially versus Q2/Q3; management highlighted accelerating organic momentum in June/July and strong Season Pass monetization .
  • FY2026 guidance initiated: revenue $1.26–$1.31B and Adjusted EBITDA $375–$415M; dividend maintained at $0.055 per share ahead of the print .
  • Stock catalysts: newly issued FY2026 guidance, improving SSR trajectory, Season Pass/customer data flywheel, and continued portfolio build-out and capital returns (dividend, repurchases) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue growth and margin resilience: Q4 revenue +6.1% YoY to $301.18M; Adjusted EBITDA up YoY to $88.73M with margin 29.5% (vs 29.4% LY) .
  • Season Pass traction and engagement: “Total growth in [June and July] reached double digits… Season Pass sales alone generated $13.4M at our bowling locations and $4.2M across our water parks and family entertainment centers.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
  • Portfolio expansion and brand conversion: 370 locations as of Aug 28, 2025, and 55 current Lucky Strike locations (targeting 100 by calendar year-end) .

What Went Wrong

  • Persistent negative SSR: Same-Store Revenue -4.1% YoY in Q4 (improved but still negative), following -5.6% in Q3 and -6.2% in Q2 .
  • GAAP loss widened: Net loss of $(74.72)M vs $(62.18)M LY, pressured by interest expense ($49.49M) and a large tax expense ($54.40M) despite positive operating income .
  • Corporate events softness was a drag earlier in the year (tech-heavy markets); while trends improved later, the recovery remained a watch item heading into year-end .

Financial Results

Headline P&L (sequential and YoY)

MetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$283.87 $339.88 $301.18
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$(62.18) $13.29 $(74.72)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$83.43 $117.26 $88.73
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %29.4% 34.5% 29.5%
  • Drivers: Q4 YoY revenue growth (+6.1%) but sequential revenue decline versus Q3 (seasonality), with GAAP net loss driven by interest and a large tax expense; Adjusted EBITDA up YoY but down sequentially with mix and seasonality .

S&P Global Consensus vs Reported (Q4 2025)

MetricReportedS&P Global Consensus*Delta
Revenue ($USD)$301,182,000 $295,068,200*+$6,113,800 (+2.1%)
Primary EPS ($)-0.363*-0.1009*Miss by -$0.262
EBITDA ($USD)43,614,000*86,222,600*Miss by -$42,608,600
  • Note: Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $88.73M with a 29.5% margin, which differs from SPGI’s EBITDA definition used for consensus comparisons .
  • Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Same-Store and Mix Indicators

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Same-Store Revenue YoY %(6.2)% (5.6)% (4.1)%
Total Locations (as of PR date)364 367 370
Lucky Strike Brand LocationsN/A34 55
Season Pass Sales (Bowling)N/AN/A$13.4M
Season Pass Sales (Water Parks/FECs)N/AN/A$4.2M

Segment Revenue (Q4 snapshot and comps)

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025
Bowling$130.71 $159.76 $128.97
Food & Beverage$97.25 $120.45 $104.82
Amusement & Other$55.91 $59.67 $67.39
Total Revenues$283.87 $339.88 $301.18

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY2026N/A$1.26B–$1.31B Initiated
Total Revenue GrowthFY2026N/A5%–9% Initiated
Adjusted EBITDAFY2026N/A$375M–$415M Initiated
Dividend per ShareQ1 FY2026$0.055 (Q4 FY2025) $0.055 (declared 8/19/25) Maintained
  • Management later reaffirmed FY2026 guidance on Nov 4, 2025 (Q1 FY2026 PR) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Transcript for the Q4 FY2025 call was not available in the document corpus; management hosted a webcast on Aug 28, 2025 . Themes below reflect disclosures from Q2–Q4 press materials.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 FY2025)Trend
Corporate Events/MacroQ2: Holiday window/election timing headwinds; Q3: events weakness in tech-heavy markets (CA, Seattle) Not explicitly discussed; management emphasized accelerating organic momentum into June/July Stabilizing from earlier weakness
Season Pass & Customer DataQ3: Pass sales >200% YoY; engagement strategy highlighted $13.4M (bowling) + $4.2M (parks/FECs) in sales; data-driven personalization emphasized Strengthening flywheel
Same-Store Revenue (SSR)Q2: -6.2% YoY; Q3: -5.6% YoY -4.1% YoY; sequential improvement Improving
Brand Repositioning (Lucky Strike)Q2: rebrand initiated; 4 conversions noted 55 current LS locations; targeting 100 by CY year-end Accelerating
M&A/FootprintQ2: 1 bowling, 6 FECs, 1 water park acquired; Q3: 1 FEC + 1 water park Q4: 3 FECs + 2 water parks acquired; total locations 370 Ongoing consolidation
Capital ReturnsQ2: $0.055 dividend; repurchases ongoing Dividend maintained; FY25 repurchases 6.8M shares ($72M) Continuing

Management Commentary

  • “We closed fiscal year 2025 on a true high note, with organic revenue momentum accelerating every single month in the quarter and inflecting solidly positive as we entered June and July.” — Thomas Shannon, Founder & CEO .
  • “Season Pass sales alone generated $13.4 million at our bowling locations and $4.2 million across our water parks and family entertainment centers.” — Thomas Shannon .
  • “Our outlook [FY2026] reflects attractive growth supported by organic operating leverage and increased investment in high-ROI, revenue-generating initiatives.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document set; a webcast was hosted on Aug 28, 2025 but a transcript was not found. As a result, Q&A themes and any intra-quarter guidance clarifications are unavailable .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus indicated a modest revenue beat and a substantial EPS miss: Revenue reported $301.18M vs $295.07M*; Primary EPS -$0.363* vs -$0.1009*; SPGI EBITDA actual 43.6M* vs 86.2M* consensus (definition differs from company’s Adjusted EBITDA of $88.7M) .
  • Given the magnitude of the EPS shortfall versus consensus, Street models may need to adjust for higher interest expense and atypical tax expense evident in Q4 .
  • Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying comps are still negative but improving sequentially (-6.2% → -5.6% → -4.1%), suggesting stabilization into FY2026 even as acquisitions fuel headline growth .
  • Season Pass is a credible traffic and monetization engine with meaningful data advantages and cross-portfolio upsell potential; June/July momentum and $17.6M in pass sales underscore durability into peak seasons .
  • The large EPS miss versus consensus was driven by interest and an unusually high tax expense; watch balance sheet/financing and tax normalization assumptions in models .
  • FY2026 guidance ($1.26–$1.31B revenue; $375–$415M Adjusted EBITDA) frames a path to mid–high single-digit top-line growth with strong cash generation; management reaffirmed this in early Q1 FY2026 .
  • Capital returns (dividend maintained; buyback capacity remaining) and continued M&A/brand conversions should support shareholder value and narrative, contingent on SSR/traffic recovery and event demand normalization .
  • Trading setup: Positive catalysts include SSR inflection, Season Pass-driven utilization, and execution against FY2026 guide; risks include macro sensitivity of corporate events, interest burden, and execution on rebrand/margin targets .

Appendix: Additional Detail

  • Share repurchases: FY2025 repurchases 6.8M shares for ~$72M; $92M remaining authorization at FY2025 end .
  • Dividend: $0.055 per share declared Aug 19, 2025, payable Sep 12, 2025 .
  • Balance sheet snapshot (Q4 FY2025): Net debt $1.26B; total cash on hand plus revolver capacity/LC net $342.26M .