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Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp (LUCK)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY2025 revenue grew 6.1% year over year to $301.18M, modestly above S&P Global consensus*, while GAAP EPS missed as tax expense and interest weighed; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $88.73M with a 29.5% margin . Revenue consensus: $295.07M*; EPS consensus: -$0.101 vs actual: -$0.363* (significant miss) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
- Same-Store Revenue (SSR) remained negative (-4.1% YoY) but improved sequentially versus Q2/Q3; management highlighted accelerating organic momentum in June/July and strong Season Pass monetization .
- FY2026 guidance initiated: revenue $1.26–$1.31B and Adjusted EBITDA $375–$415M; dividend maintained at $0.055 per share ahead of the print .
- Stock catalysts: newly issued FY2026 guidance, improving SSR trajectory, Season Pass/customer data flywheel, and continued portfolio build-out and capital returns (dividend, repurchases) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Revenue growth and margin resilience: Q4 revenue +6.1% YoY to $301.18M; Adjusted EBITDA up YoY to $88.73M with margin 29.5% (vs 29.4% LY) .
- Season Pass traction and engagement: “Total growth in [June and July] reached double digits… Season Pass sales alone generated $13.4M at our bowling locations and $4.2M across our water parks and family entertainment centers.” — Thomas Shannon, CEO .
- Portfolio expansion and brand conversion: 370 locations as of Aug 28, 2025, and 55 current Lucky Strike locations (targeting 100 by calendar year-end) .
What Went Wrong
- Persistent negative SSR: Same-Store Revenue -4.1% YoY in Q4 (improved but still negative), following -5.6% in Q3 and -6.2% in Q2 .
- GAAP loss widened: Net loss of $(74.72)M vs $(62.18)M LY, pressured by interest expense ($49.49M) and a large tax expense ($54.40M) despite positive operating income .
- Corporate events softness was a drag earlier in the year (tech-heavy markets); while trends improved later, the recovery remained a watch item heading into year-end .
Financial Results
Headline P&L (sequential and YoY)
- Drivers: Q4 YoY revenue growth (+6.1%) but sequential revenue decline versus Q3 (seasonality), with GAAP net loss driven by interest and a large tax expense; Adjusted EBITDA up YoY but down sequentially with mix and seasonality .
S&P Global Consensus vs Reported (Q4 2025)
- Note: Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $88.73M with a 29.5% margin, which differs from SPGI’s EBITDA definition used for consensus comparisons .
- Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Same-Store and Mix Indicators
Segment Revenue (Q4 snapshot and comps)
Guidance Changes
- Management later reaffirmed FY2026 guidance on Nov 4, 2025 (Q1 FY2026 PR) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Transcript for the Q4 FY2025 call was not available in the document corpus; management hosted a webcast on Aug 28, 2025 . Themes below reflect disclosures from Q2–Q4 press materials.
Management Commentary
- “We closed fiscal year 2025 on a true high note, with organic revenue momentum accelerating every single month in the quarter and inflecting solidly positive as we entered June and July.” — Thomas Shannon, Founder & CEO .
- “Season Pass sales alone generated $13.4 million at our bowling locations and $4.2 million across our water parks and family entertainment centers.” — Thomas Shannon .
- “Our outlook [FY2026] reflects attractive growth supported by organic operating leverage and increased investment in high-ROI, revenue-generating initiatives.” .
Q&A Highlights
- No Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document set; a webcast was hosted on Aug 28, 2025 but a transcript was not found. As a result, Q&A themes and any intra-quarter guidance clarifications are unavailable .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus indicated a modest revenue beat and a substantial EPS miss: Revenue reported $301.18M vs $295.07M*; Primary EPS -$0.363* vs -$0.1009*; SPGI EBITDA actual 43.6M* vs 86.2M* consensus (definition differs from company’s Adjusted EBITDA of $88.7M) .
- Given the magnitude of the EPS shortfall versus consensus, Street models may need to adjust for higher interest expense and atypical tax expense evident in Q4 .
- Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Underlying comps are still negative but improving sequentially (-6.2% → -5.6% → -4.1%), suggesting stabilization into FY2026 even as acquisitions fuel headline growth .
- Season Pass is a credible traffic and monetization engine with meaningful data advantages and cross-portfolio upsell potential; June/July momentum and $17.6M in pass sales underscore durability into peak seasons .
- The large EPS miss versus consensus was driven by interest and an unusually high tax expense; watch balance sheet/financing and tax normalization assumptions in models .
- FY2026 guidance ($1.26–$1.31B revenue; $375–$415M Adjusted EBITDA) frames a path to mid–high single-digit top-line growth with strong cash generation; management reaffirmed this in early Q1 FY2026 .
- Capital returns (dividend maintained; buyback capacity remaining) and continued M&A/brand conversions should support shareholder value and narrative, contingent on SSR/traffic recovery and event demand normalization .
- Trading setup: Positive catalysts include SSR inflection, Season Pass-driven utilization, and execution against FY2026 guide; risks include macro sensitivity of corporate events, interest burden, and execution on rebrand/margin targets .
Appendix: Additional Detail
- Share repurchases: FY2025 repurchases 6.8M shares for ~$72M; $92M remaining authorization at FY2025 end .
- Dividend: $0.055 per share declared Aug 19, 2025, payable Sep 12, 2025 .
- Balance sheet snapshot (Q4 FY2025): Net debt $1.26B; total cash on hand plus revolver capacity/LC net $342.26M .