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LiveOne, Inc. (LVO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 FY2025 revenue was $29,445k, down 6% year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA of $1,541k and operating loss widening to $(5,113)k; Audio Division revenue was $27,100k and Audio Adjusted EBITDA $3,600k .
  • Guidance was cut materially: consolidated revenue to $112–$120M (from $120–$135M in Q2 and $140–$155M in Q1) and Adjusted EBITDA to $6–$10M (from $8–$15M in Q2 and $16–$20M in Q1); Audio Division revenue to $106–$115M while Audio Adjusted EBITDA was maintained at $12–$20M .
  • Management is pivoting to direct-billed and ad-supported conversion of Tesla users (800k total; 475k+ ad-supported) and accelerating B2B monetization with $44M contracted revenue and five deals closed; DAX partnership should ramp ad monetization over 90–120 days .
  • Cash stood at $10,854k; capex was ~$900k for integrated player; buyback reaffirmed with $6.2M remaining; LVO owns ~72% of PODC and acquired 342k shares this quarter (925k total at $2.37 avg) .
  • Key near-term catalysts: execution on Tesla conversion (ARPU/pricing uplift), DAX ad ramp, and B2B deal closures; estimates comparison was unavailable via S&P Global at time of analysis (see Estimates Context) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Audio Division delivered $27,100k revenue and $3,600k Adjusted EBITDA in Q3, driven by improved Contribution Margin and lower opex; nine‑month Audio revenue reached $90,600k (+13% YoY) and YTD Audio Adjusted EBITDA $14,100k .
  • Rapid user acquisition and conversion: 800k Tesla users (475k+ ad-supported) with direct-billed Premium subscribers up 78% and overall direct-billed subscribers up 130% since October 2024 under the renewed Tesla program .
  • Strategic momentum: $44M contracted revenue, five B2B deals closed, robust pipeline (70+ deals); management reaffirmed a $12M buyback with $6.2M remaining, signaling confidence .
  • “Providing for the first time ever, each front property with our logo…in every single Tesla car…this is in perpetuity” and “we will have data information of each of our subscribers…This is a multibillion-dollar opportunity” — Robert Ellin (CEO) .

What Went Wrong

  • Consolidated revenue declined 6% YoY; operating loss widened by $4.36M YoY to $(5,113)k; Adjusted EBITDA fell to $1,541k vs $3,313k prior year; consolidated guidance cut significantly on revenue and Adjusted EBITDA .
  • Media/Other and Corporate were headwinds in Q3 Adjusted EBITDA (Media $(500)k, Corporate $(1,500)k); impairment charges elevated operating expenses (intangible assets impairment $3,807k) .
  • Monetization lag on new ad-supported users: DAX ad ramp is 90–120 days; interim margin pressure risk acknowledged though not fully visible in Q3 given only ~30 days of ad-supported activity .

Financial Results

Metric (USD Thousands)Q3 FY2024 (Dec 31, 2023)Q1 FY2025 (Jun 30, 2024)Q2 FY2025 (Sep 30, 2024)Q3 FY2025 (Dec 31, 2024)
Revenue31,245 33,078 32,594 29,445
Operating Income (Loss)(753) (784) (1,400) (5,113)
Adjusted EBITDA3,313 2,903 2,885 1,541
Net Loss per Share (Basic/Diluted)(0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.06)
Gross Profit7,203 7,216 7,385 6,366

Segment performance and KPIs:

Segment/KPIQ3 FY2024Q1 FY2025Q2 FY2025Q3 FY2025
Audio Division Revenue (USD Thousands)27,300 31,900 31,700 27,100
Audio Division Adjusted EBITDA (USD Thousands)—5,100 5,400 3,600
Media Division Adjusted EBITDA (USD Thousands)—(600) (800) (500)
Corporate Adjusted EBITDA (USD Thousands)—(1,600) (1,700) (1,500)
Tesla Users (Total)———800,000
Tesla Ad-Supported Users———475,000+
Direct-Billed Premium Subscribers (chg since Oct’24)———+78%
Direct-Billed Subscribers (overall, chg since Oct’24)———+130%
Contracted B2B Revenue———$44,000
Capex (quarter) (USD Thousands)—~700 ~600 ~900
Cash & Equivalents (quarter-end) (USD Thousands)—6,165 11,053 10,854

Notes:

  • Segment Adjusted EBITDA breakdown for Q3 FY2025: Audio $3,600k; Media $(500)k; Corporate $(1,500)k .
  • Contribution Margin and reconciliations provided in exhibits .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated RevenueFY2025$120M–$135M (Q2 guide) / $140M–$155M (Q1 guide) $112M–$120M Lowered
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAFY2025$8M–$15M (Q2 guide) / $16M–$20M (Q1 guide) $6M–$10M Lowered
Audio Division RevenueFY2025$110M–$120M (Q2 guide) / $130M–$140M (Q1 guide) $106M–$115M Lowered
Audio Division Adjusted EBITDAFY2025$12M–$20M (Q2 guide) / $20M–$25M (Q1 guide) $12M–$20M Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 FY2025 and Q2 FY2025)Current Period (Q3 FY2025)Trend
Tesla partnership & conversionRenewed partnership (Oct); strong paid member growth; guidance higher in Q1; maintained in Q2 800k users; 475k+ ad-supported; direct-billed up 78% premium/130% overall; front-screen Tesla branding; long-term ARPU/pricing uplift potential Rising adoption; revenue mix pivot
Ad monetization (DAX)Not highlighted in Q1; Q2 focus on Audio EBITDA and contribution margin DAX exclusive partnership; 90–120 day ramp; early ads appearing; expectation to reach ~$3/month ad-supported ARPU in 6–9 months Building; near-term lag
B2B deals & pipelineFour new partnerships and robust pipeline in Q1 Five deals closed; $44M contracted; 2+ more expected by year-end; 70+ pipeline Strengthening
Pricing/ARPU strategyPrice increases launched (Sept) Management intent to raise prices; elasticity opportunity; industry price hikes (e.g., Spotify) Upward bias
PodcastOne scale & industry consolidationRecord revenue/Q1, 12th in Podtrac; Q2 maintained revenue growth “Eighth largest” publisher; major Amazon partnership ($16.5M/3-year); positive EBITDA year guided; consolidation at high revenue multiples Improving scale; favorable M&A backdrop
Product/R&D executionIntegrated music player development driving capex Continued investment (capex ~$900k) in integrated player; leveraging AI marketing in conversion efforts Ongoing investment
Macro/advertiser cycles—Advertiser payments 90–120 days; onboarding delays impact margin timing Sustained friction

Management Commentary

  • “We have now renewed our contract for the 12th straight year with Tesla…with our branding right in the front of every single Tesla car…this is in perpetuity…we will have data information of each of our subscribers. This is a multibillion-dollar opportunity.” — Robert Ellin, CEO .
  • “Since December, we signed over…800,000+ new users…we’re pivoting our business model…leveraging our partnerships and delivering our music platform to large user bases and B2B deals.” — Robert Ellin .
  • “We currently have $6.2 million remaining on [the] buyback program…our cash position increased by $4 million to almost $11 million after paying off $3 million to East West Bank, and acquiring 900,000 shares of…PodcastOne.” — Robert Ellin .
  • “We signed this partnership with DAX…the biggest programmatic advertising company…Advertising takes 90 to 120 days minimum to really kick in…we fully expect in 6 to 9 months…I can’t imagine we’re not going to be $3 a month ad-supported.” — Robert Ellin .
  • On pricing: “We did say recently, we’ll be raising our prices…there’s an opportunity to raise prices substantially…we’re the lowest by far in terms of pricing.” — Robert Ellin .

Q&A Highlights

  • ARPU and pricing strategy: Management sees substantial pricing elasticity and plans to raise prices over the next 12 months, citing industry precedents and benefits from having direct subscriber data post‑Tesla contract changes .
  • Tesla onboarding and user funnel: New Tesla owners can choose ad-supported or paid; ad-supported launched ~30 days prior to call leading to 450k+ sign-ups; strategy aims to re‑engage users and upsell subscriptions over time .
  • Ad monetization ramp: DAX partnership is in early phases; ad revenue expected to ramp over 90–120 days, with targeted ad-supported ARPU of ~$3/month and conversion of 20–30% to paid over 24 months (industry analog) .
  • Margin timing: Interim margin pressure from ad-supported listening not fully visible in Q3 (only ~30 days in period); acknowledged cost before revenue dynamic until ads scale .
  • PodcastOne margins and industry dynamics: Upfront costs and onboarding delays compress margins; management expects improvement as shows ramp and industry consolidation progresses .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 FY2025 EPS/revenue was unavailable at time of analysis due to data limitations; therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses versus consensus. Expectation recalibration likely required given the magnitude of the FY2025 guidance cuts .
  • Where estimates are needed (e.g., target price consensus), S&P Global values were not accessible at time of query (unavailable).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance reset: Consolidated FY2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA were cut significantly; Audio Adjusted EBITDA range held — risk centers on consolidated mix, Media/Other headwinds, and timing of ad monetization ramp .
  • Strategic pivot to direct and ad-supported: Tesla conversion and DAX partnership should support ARPU uplift and ad revenue scaling over 2–3 quarters; near‑term margin noise likely until ads fully ramp .
  • B2B monetization visibility: $44M contracted revenue and five deals closed provide near‑term revenue anchors; pipeline (70+) adds optionality for FY2026 .
  • Audio Division resilience: Despite quarterly revenue softness, segment demonstrated positive Adjusted EBITDA; focus remains on contribution margins and cost discipline .
  • Capital allocation: Buyback program ($6.2M remaining) and increased stake in PodcastOne signal confidence; watch leverage/liquidity (cash $10,854k) amidst investment needs .
  • Trading implications (near term): Expect volatility around execution milestones (Tesla ARPU/pricing, ad ramp proofs, B2B deal closings) and any further guidance updates; absence of consensus comparisons may dampen immediate reaction until sell‑side updates their models .
  • Medium-term thesis: If conversion economics and B2B scaling materialize (pricing uplift, ad-supported ARPU, continued deal flow), earnings power could inflect; monitoring segment EBITDA trajectory and opex discipline remains critical .

Appendices

Additional Press Releases (Q3 FY2025 context)

  • Exclusive U.S. audio advertising partnership with DAX to enhance programmatic ad monetization .
  • Multiple Tesla subscriber milestones and renewed partnership communications (see Q3 press release for consolidated user metrics) .

Reconciliations and Balance Sheet Highlights

  • Contribution Margin and Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations (segment detail) provided in Q3 exhibits .
  • Balance sheet: Cash $10,854k; total current liabilities $40,849k at Dec 31, 2024 .