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LiveOne, Inc. (LVO)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Fiscal Q4 2025 revenue was $19.29M and Adjusted EBITDA was $1.59M; FY25 consolidated revenue was $114.4M while the Audio division posted record revenue of $108.9M and Adjusted EBITDA of $18.2M, surpassing guidance by $2.4M on consolidated revenue and by $2.9M and 51% on Audio Adjusted EBITDA, respectively .
- Versus Wall Street consensus, Q4 revenue missed ($19.29M vs $22.26M*) while EPS loss appears smaller than expected (−$0.08 vs −$0.425*), reflecting a mixed headline setup; EBITDA missed consensus (−$1.72M actual vs −$0.67M*) as Street uses GAAP EBITDA, whereas the company focuses on non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA .
- Management emphasized cost reductions (~$40M annualized since Dec-2024) and financing flexibility (replaced a $7M line of credit with up to $27.5M facility post year-end), positioning for B2B growth and AI-driven efficiency .
- Key catalysts: announced momentum in B2B deals ($44M contracted; Amazon $16.5M; another Fortune 50 $25M) and an expected August launch of the largest B2B partner to date (10x Tesla’s subscriber base), plus PodcastOne guidance raised to $55–$60M revenue and $3.5–$5M EBITDA .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “We’ve surpassed our guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA* for fiscal 2025” with Audio division record results: $108.9M revenue and $18.2M Adjusted EBITDA .
- Aggressive cost actions: “cutting $40M in annualized costs since December 2024,” contributing to Adjusted EBITDA outperformance .
- Strategic B2B traction: “over 5 B2B partnerships signed, over $50M of revenues,” including Amazon ($16.5M) and a Fortune 50 partner ($25M), validating enterprise demand .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 revenue fell YoY due to Slacker reductions ($19.3M vs $30.9M), driving operating loss to −$8.25M and Adjusted EBITDA down to $1.59M .
- GAAP EBITDA missed Street consensus (−$1.72M actual vs −$0.67M*), highlighting divergence between company’s non-GAAP “Adjusted EBITDA” focus and the Street’s GAAP frameworks .
- Gross margin pressure expected as ad-supported Tesla users ramp before advertising fully monetizes; 90–120 day ad cycle delays revenue recognition on newly added ad-supported users .
Financial Results
Headline Metrics vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter
Segment Breakdown
Margins (SPGI/Capital IQ)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We’ve surpassed our guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA* for fiscal 2025.” — Robert Ellin, CEO .
- “We just raised our [PodcastOne] guidance to $55–$60M with $3.5–$5M of EBITDA.” — Robert Ellin .
- “A partner…has come back in with a credit facility of up to $27.5M giving us… the biggest cash position we’ll ever have.” — Robert Ellin on JGB facility .
- “Our fill rate on our Tesla users is over 50%… we think 50% inventory will go to 75% very quickly.” — Robert Ellin .
- “We’ve cut one third of our staff at Slacker Radio… over $40M in total costs.” — Robert Ellin .
Q&A Highlights
- Advertising monetization timeline: Management expects ad monetization to scale over 90–120 days; already seeing ads in Tesla, aiming toward ~$3/month ad-supported ARPU and higher on paid over 6–9 months .
- Tesla conversion and ARPU: Over 1.5M users with 250k+ paid subscribers; pushing subscription conversion via AI, with price elasticity opportunity vs historically low ARPU ($3–$5 baseline) .
- Largest B2B partner: Signed and targeted for August launch; expected to exceed Tesla’s scale by 10x, though details undisclosed .
- Filing timing: 10-K expected “early next week,” pending auditor wrap-up .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Company emphasizes non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA ($1.59M in Q4) vs GAAP EBITDA used by consensus, contributing to apparent variance .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- FY25 execution outperformed internal guidance on Audio division profitability, supported by substantial cost reductions; however, Q4 headline revenue missed consensus amid Slacker revenue reset .
- The pivot to ad-supported and direct-billed subscriptions in Tesla is gaining traction (50%+ ad fill; 1.3M conversions), with conversion and pricing initiatives likely to lift ARPU over time .
- B2B distribution is emerging as the primary growth vector (Amazon, Fortune 50, and a larger August partner), providing scale beyond prior auto/OEM channels .
- Financing flexibility via JGB facility and ongoing buybacks improve strategic optionality while management explores M&A and spin-related paths to enhance value .
- Near-term modeling should reflect: lower Slacker revenue, rising ad-supported monetization through H2, and PodcastOne guidance raises; Adjusted EBITDA should benefit from $40M+ structural cost cuts .
- Key watch items next quarter: August B2B launch KPIs, ad monetization pace, subscription conversion rates, and any price actions impacting ARPU and churn .
- Given mixed headline vs consensus, stock reaction may hinge on visibility into B2B economics and evidence that ad-supported flows translate into paid subscriber growth .