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LV

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, with Marina Bay Sands (MBS) delivering record profitability; consolidated net revenue $3.33B vs S&P Global consensus $3.05B*, and Adjusted EPS $0.78 vs $0.62*; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.61 . MBS contributed $743M Adjusted Property EBITDA at a 51.7% margin, aided by higher theoretical hold from side-bets adoption and smart-table measurement .
  • Macao EBITDA improved sequentially to $601M, despite a ~$20M typhoon headwind and lower portfolio margin from deliberate reinvestment; management expects further share gains into Q4 as marketing changes scale .
  • Capital returns accelerated: $500M buyback in Q3; remaining authorization lifted to $2.0B; dividend raised 20% for 2026 to $1.20/year ($0.30/qtr) .
  • Structural drivers: MBS theoretical hold reset (technology-enabled tracking) and side-bet mix shift support sustainably higher win rates; Macao marketing reset and property upgrades (Londoner) underpin mass growth; re-entry into junkets expands rolling segment though at lower margin .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • MBS’ “unprecedented” performance: $1.44B net revenue and $743M Adjusted Property EBITDA; rolling hold ~4.84% vs older paradigms, with smart tables enabling new theoretical methodology; mass, slots, and ADR all up y/y . CEO: “Operating performance at MBS is unprecedented in the history of our industry.”
    • Macao revenue momentum and share improvement: Macao mass revenue accelerated with The Londoner contributing $686M revenue and $219M EBITDA; management’s mid-’25 marketing changes are “halfway there,” with further gains expected .
    • Capital returns and confidence: $500M buyback in Q3; authorization increased to $2.0B; 2026 dividend hiked to $1.20/year .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Macao margins compressed: Portfolio Adjusted Property EBITDA margin down ~160 bps y/y (31.5%) on reinvestment and some cost pressure; typhoon cost ~$20M .
    • Mixed property performance within Macao: Venetian, Parisian, Plaza/Four Seasons saw EBITDA declines y/y; management flagged Parisian and Sands Macao as “weak links” requiring more work .
    • Tax rate higher: Effective tax rate rose to 15.6% (vs 12.4% prior year) driven by 17% statutory rate in Singapore, modestly dampening net income leverage .

Financial Results

Overall performance vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Revenue ($B)$2.862 $3.175 $3.331
GAAP Diluted EPS$0.49 $0.66 $0.61
Adjusted EPS (Diluted)$0.59 $0.79 $0.78
Consolidated Adj. Property EBITDA ($B)$1.140 $1.334 $1.344
Total Adj. EBITDA Margin %39.8% 42.0% 40.3%
S&P Rev Consensus ($B)$2.890*$2.835*$3.052*
S&P Primary EPS Consensus$0.569*$0.531*$0.622*

Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Q3 vs estimates: Revenue beat by ~$0.28B; Primary EPS beat by ~$0.16; Adjusted EPS matched S&P “Primary EPS” actual ($0.78), indicating a clean beat on the Street’s EPS basis . Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q3 vs Q2: Revenue +$0.156B, Adjusted Property EBITDA +$0.010B; margin down ~170 bps on mix and Macao reinvestment .
  • Q3 vs prior year: Revenue +$0.65B; Adjusted Property EBITDA +$0.353B; margin +330 bps, led by MBS .

Segment performance

SegmentQ1 2025 Net Rev ($M)Q2 2025 Net Rev ($M)Q3 2025 Net Rev ($M)Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q2 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q3 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)
Macao Operations1,709 1,797 1,906 535 566 601
Marina Bay Sands1,163 1,388 1,436 605 768 743

Q3 2025 property mix (Net Revenue and Adj. Property EBITDA)

PropertyNet Revenue ($M)Adj. Property EBITDA ($M)EBITDA Margin %
The Venetian Macao692 242 35.0%
The Londoner Macao686 219 31.9%
The Parisian Macao218 53 24.3%
The Plaza & Four Seasons Macao206 74 35.9%
Sands Macao72 8 11.1%
MBS (Singapore)1,436 743 51.7%

Hold normalization impact (Adjusted Property EBITDA, company methodology)

SegmentQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Macao-$10M (low hold) +$7M +$2M
Marina Bay Sands~$0M (inline) +$107M +$43M

Balance sheet and cash returns

MetricQ3 2025
Unrestricted Cash$3.35B
Total Debt (ex leases, net of OID/deferred costs)$15.63B
Q3 Buyback$500M (9M shares @ $54.39)
Remaining Authorization (post 10/21/25)$2.0B through Nov 3, 2027
SCL Buyback (Q3 + July)$337M; ownership to 74.76%
Dividend$0.25/qtr paid; 2026 recurring raised to $1.20/year ($0.30/qtr)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance/PolicyCurrent Guidance/PolicyChange
Recurring DividendCY2026$1.00/year in 2025 implied by $0.25/qtr $1.20/year ($0.30/qtr) Raised
Share Repurchase AuthorizationAs of 9/30/25$700M remaining Increased remaining authorization to $2.0B; extended to Nov 3, 2027 Raised/Extended
Revenue/EBITDA/Tax Guidancen/aNot providedNot provided; Q3 effective tax 15.6% reported Maintained (no formal guidance)

Note: LVS does not provide formal numeric quarterly guidance; management emphasized continued momentum at MBS and improving Macao trajectory .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Smart tables & side-bet driven holdQ1: Revised MBS expected rolling hold to 3.7% as empirical win rates rose . Q2: Hold boosted results; MBS hold impact +$107M .MBS theoretical hold methodology now anchored to smart-table tracking; rolling hold 4.84%; beat attributed to side-bet adoption; expects variability but structurally higher than historical ~2.85% .Positive, structural uplift at MBS
Macao marketing & shareQ1: Softer market; focused on long-term investments; Macao EBITDA $535M . Q2: Macao EBITDA $566M; Londoner strength .Macao EBITDA $601M despite ~$20M typhoon hit; mass share improving; “halfway there” on marketing reset .Improving sequentially
Capital returnsQ1: $450M buyback; buyback pool lifted to $2.0B . Q2: $800M buyback .Q3: $500M buyback; remaining authorization raised to $2.0B; 2026 dividend +20% .Persistently shareholder-friendly
Macao VIP/junkets—VIP growth outpacing mass in market; LVS re-entered junket market; remains lower-margin; focus remains non-rolling profit pools .Mixed: volume up, margin lower
Events & tourismQ2: Strong tourism trends at MBS .F1 moved to Q4; management views MBS strength as broad-based, not event-dependent .Stable underpinning at MBS
Expansion pipelineQ1: New Singapore facilities financing; IR2 noted .Monitoring UAE/Thailand; Japan unlikely; broke ground on Singapore IR2 live performance venue .Patient, disciplined

Management Commentary

  • “Operating performance at MBS is unprecedented in the history of our industry.”
  • “We were wrong [in Macao]… We’ve adapted to the market and changed our approach in the second quarter of 2025… we expect additional share gains and EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter.”
  • On smart tables and side bets: “What makes it happen… is the game itself offers a lot more opportunities to gamble different ways… side bets… have driven this to 4% plus… it’s a massive change in the opportunity to make more money.”
  • On capital allocation: “We are a capital allocation story and a return to capital story… When high-return opportunities aren’t available, we return the capital… through dividends and share repurchases.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Smart tables/hold sustainability: Management clarified the referee role of smart tables; the driver is side-bet adoption across player cohorts. Hold will fluctuate by quarter but structurally higher; rollout expanding in Macao .
  • Macao recovery path: To reach $2.7–$2.8B Macao EBITDA targets, market growth plus revamped marketing and property optimization are needed; Londoner is a key driver; Parisian and Sands Macao are focus areas .
  • VIP dynamics: Market VIP outgrowing mass recently; LVS re-entered junkets; still a low-margin slice (12–15% of GGR); core profit growth to come from non-rolling .
  • Events vs fundamentals at MBS: F1 helpful but not necessary; Singapore’s desirability and MBS’ product drive demand; management sees sustainability and upside potential .
  • Digital gaming: LVS is closing the door on digital gaming initiatives; minimal cost impact as expenses fade from development line .

Estimates Context

Beat/miss versus S&P Global consensus

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue – Actual ($B)2.862 3.175 3.331
Revenue – Consensus ($B)2.890*2.835*3.052*
Primary EPS – Actual0.59 (Adj. EPS) 0.79 (Adj. EPS) 0.78 (Adj. EPS)
Primary EPS – Consensus0.569*0.531*0.622*

Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Q3: Revenue beat by ~$279M; Primary EPS beat by ~$0.16; strong top-line upside with operating leverage led by MBS .
  • Q2: Revenue and EPS beat; Q1: modest EPS beat, slight revenue miss vs consensus*. Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key KPIs

Marina Bay Sands (selected)

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Rolling Chip Volume ($M)8,028 8,945 9,069
Rolling Chip Win %3.70% 5.26% 4.84%
Non-Rolling Drop ($M)2,304 2,360 2,552
Slot Handle ($M)5,812 6,192 6,406
ADR ($)925 888 982
RevPAR ($)884 844 937

The Londoner Macao (selected)

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Revenue ($M)529 642 686
Adj. Property EBITDA ($M)153 205 219
Non-Rolling Drop ($M)1,755 2,196 2,268
ADR ($)291 259 262
RevPAR ($)286 242 253

Why the Quarter Looked Like This

  • MBS outperformance: Introduction and scaling of side-bet menus increased theoretical house advantage in Baccarat, with smart tables enabling accurate measurement; this drove higher rolling hold, strong flow-through, and record EBITDA at >50% margin .
  • Macao trajectory: Marketing reinvestment and rebalanced offers across segments improved mass volumes and share; Londoner Grand rooms/suites and distribution reset aided productivity; typhoon cost ~$20M .
  • Margins: Consolidated margin dipped q/q due to Macao reinvestment and event impacts, partially offset by MBS mix; tax rate normalization also weighed on net income leverage .

Clear Implications

  • For the stock: Q3 revenue/EPS beats plus the 2026 dividend raise and expanded buyback are supportive near-term catalysts. Structural hold uplift at MBS argues for estimate revisions upward on sustainable EBITDA run-rate, while Macao’s sequential improvement and share gains can de-risk recovery trajectories .
  • For estimates: Street likely lifts outer-quarter MBS EBITDA assumptions and modestly increases Macao mass revenue growth and reinvestment intensity, with mix-driven margin improvement into 2026 as volumes scale .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • MBS is performing at a structurally higher profitability level driven by product, side-bet adoption, and smart-table analytics—management sees sustainability and potential upside vs prior $2.5B run-rate ambitions .
  • Macao is on an improving trajectory; marketing changes and property upgrades (Londoner) are gaining traction; typhoon impact was transitory .
  • Q3 demonstrated balanced execution: top-line beat, EPS beat, and continued capital returns; 2026 dividend hike and enlarged buyback authorization reinforce confidence .
  • VIP growth is returning market-wide but remains lower margin; LVS’ profit engine remains non-rolling mass and premium mass .
  • Margin path in Macao should improve with operating leverage as volumes expand, even with elevated reinvestment to secure share .
  • Balance sheet capacity remains ample to fund Singapore IR2 and Macao programs alongside shareholder returns (cash $3.35B; facilities availability ~$9.35B across revolvers and delayed draw) .
  • Watch for continued smart-table deployment and side-bet mix in Macao as potential incremental driver of win rates and EBITDA .

Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Citations:

  • Q3 2025 8-K and press release exhibits, financials and supplemental schedules
  • Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (smart tables, Macao strategy, capital allocation)
  • Q2 2025 8-K and press release for sequential comparisons
  • Q1 2025 8-K and press release for trend comparisons
  • Q3 2025 “Sands to release results” press release (other relevant PR)