LV
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue was $2.90B, down 0.7% YoY, while consolidated adjusted property EBITDA was $1.11B (down from $1.20B YoY) and diluted EPS was $0.45; sequentially, revenue and EBITDA rose vs Q3 ($2.68B and $0.99B), with EBITDA margin at 38.3% vs 37.0% in Q3 .
- Marina Bay Sands delivered $537M adjusted property EBITDA on $1.14B net revenue; Macau delivered $571M adjusted property EBITDA on $1.77B net revenue, with Macau negatively impacted by low rolling hold (-$22M EBITDA effect) and reduced room inventory during Londoner Grand ramp .
- Capital return remained a highlight: $450M share repurchases, quarterly dividend increased to $0.25 for Feb 19, 2025, and LVS increased Sands China ownership to 72.3% via $250M purchases .
- Management emphasized continued investment-driven growth in Macau and Singapore (Londoner Grand ramping to full inventory by May 2025; MBS suite/amenities program nearing completion), while cautioning on base-mass recovery in Macau and retail turnover rent softness; catalysts include room additions, event programming (NBA preseason at The Venetian Arena in Oct-2025), and sustained capital returns .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Marina Bay Sands strength: $1.14B net revenue and $537M adjusted property EBITDA in Q4, supported by high ADR ($927), strong non-rolling table and slot performance, and continued momentum from capital investments; management expects further growth as enhanced product offering reaches full stride in H1’25 .
- Progress on Macau assets: Londoner Grand casino opened late September; ~315 suites operated in Q4, ~1,000 keys licensed shortly after year-end, with full 2,405 keys targeted by May 2025, positioning Macau portfolio for margin expansion and EBITDA growth as room inventory normalizes .
- Capital returns and ownership consolidation: $450M buybacks, dividend lifted to $0.25 per quarter for 2025, and incremental SCL purchases ($250M) increased ownership to 72.3%, reinforcing shareholder return and strategic control of Macau operations .
What Went Wrong
- Macau hold and inventory headwinds: Low hold on rolling play reduced Macau adjusted property EBITDA by $22M, and reduced room inventory (Londoner ramp) pressured Macau margins and revenue mix (e.g., Venetian margin 36.7% vs 40.4% YoY) .
- YoY compression in consolidated profitability: Net revenue declined 0.7% YoY ($2.90B vs $2.92B), operating income fell to $590M (from $710M), adjusted property EBITDA declined to $1.11B (from $1.20B), and diluted EPS fell to $0.45 (from $0.50) .
- Retail turnover rent softness: Management cited Four Seasons mall turnover rents down YoY (approximately $27M lower in Q4 2024 vs prior year), reflecting broader consumer softness in luxury retail despite resilient premium gaming .
Financial Results
Segment overview
Property breakdown (Q4 2024)
KPIs and hold impacts
Guidance Changes
Note: LVS does not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance. Management reiterated confidence in investment-driven growth in Macau and Singapore .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We remain enthusiastic about our opportunities to deliver industry-leading growth in both Macao and Singapore in the years ahead as we execute our capital investment programs in both markets.” — Robert G. Goldstein, Chairman & CEO .
- “Macau EBITDA was $571 million for the quarter… If we had held as expected in our rolling program, our EBITDA would have been higher by $22 million… We will have substantially completed our $1.75 billion investment program at MBS by May of this year.” — Patrick Dumont, President & COO .
- “Gross gaming revenue can should exceed $30 billion in 2025 and continue to grow… The scale and quality of the assets we've built are second to none.” — Robert G. Goldstein .
- “Our financial strength and industry-leading cash flow continue to support… our program to return excess capital to stockholders.” — Robert G. Goldstein .
Q&A Highlights
- SCL share purchases and capital allocation: Management intends to own more of SCL over time, citing conviction in Macau growth; continued shareholder-friendly returns at LVS and potential SCL dividends and note repayment discussed .
- Londoner ramp cadence: Suites increasing to ~1,000 keys post year-end; full inventory by May; margins expected to recover as inventory returns; new premium mass salon opened near Lunar New Year .
- Marina Bay Sands drivers: Broad-based strength across non-rolling table and slots; ADR reflects product quality; long-term ramp expected as Tower 3 and new amenities reach completion .
- Hold normalization debate: Team evaluating whether normalized VIP hold at MBS should be adjusted higher, given prop/side bets and smart tables increasing theoretical win .
- New York license timeline and iGaming risk: Timing uncertain; management flagged potential dilution to land-based returns if iGaming legalized; cautious approach to capital-intensive projects in such markets .
- Retail turnover rent: Four Seasons turnover rents down YoY; major flagship openings planned to enhance tenant mix over 18–24 months .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) for Q4 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2023, and FY 2024; data was unavailable due to provider limits during this session. As a result, estimate comparisons could not be included. We will update this recap when S&P Global consensus is accessible [SPGI error: Daily Request Limit Exceeded].
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequential improvement with Q4 revenue at $2.90B and adjusted property EBITDA at $1.11B; margin ticked up vs Q3 as MBS strength offset Macau hold/inventory headwinds .
- Marina Bay Sands is the growth engine: ADR at $927, non-rolling table and slots accelerating; EBITDA of $537M in Q4 even with modest negative hold impact; H1’25 completion should unlock further upside .
- Macau positioned for rebound as Londoner Grand rooms return: ~1,000 keys now licensed, full 2,405 keys by May 2025; expect margin/EBITDA uplift with restored inventory and programming (Venetian Arena) .
- Watch retail softness: Four Seasons turnover rent decline highlights macro/luxury headwinds; tenant mix upgrades (flagships) may stabilize/strengthen retail contribution over 18–24 months .
- Capital returns remain a core catalyst: $450M buyback in Q4, dividend increased to $0.25, $1.55B remaining authorization, and SCL ownership now 72.3% .
- Risk monitor: Macau base-mass recovery timing; hold volatility; NY/iGaming policy uncertainty; balance between reinvestment discipline and share recapture .
- Near-term trading: Focus on room-inventory ramp, event calendar (e.g., NBA at The Venetian Arena in Oct-2025), and continued buybacks/dividends as potential sentiment drivers .