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LV

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue was $2.90B, down 0.7% YoY, while consolidated adjusted property EBITDA was $1.11B (down from $1.20B YoY) and diluted EPS was $0.45; sequentially, revenue and EBITDA rose vs Q3 ($2.68B and $0.99B), with EBITDA margin at 38.3% vs 37.0% in Q3 .
  • Marina Bay Sands delivered $537M adjusted property EBITDA on $1.14B net revenue; Macau delivered $571M adjusted property EBITDA on $1.77B net revenue, with Macau negatively impacted by low rolling hold (-$22M EBITDA effect) and reduced room inventory during Londoner Grand ramp .
  • Capital return remained a highlight: $450M share repurchases, quarterly dividend increased to $0.25 for Feb 19, 2025, and LVS increased Sands China ownership to 72.3% via $250M purchases .
  • Management emphasized continued investment-driven growth in Macau and Singapore (Londoner Grand ramping to full inventory by May 2025; MBS suite/amenities program nearing completion), while cautioning on base-mass recovery in Macau and retail turnover rent softness; catalysts include room additions, event programming (NBA preseason at The Venetian Arena in Oct-2025), and sustained capital returns .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Marina Bay Sands strength: $1.14B net revenue and $537M adjusted property EBITDA in Q4, supported by high ADR ($927), strong non-rolling table and slot performance, and continued momentum from capital investments; management expects further growth as enhanced product offering reaches full stride in H1’25 .
  • Progress on Macau assets: Londoner Grand casino opened late September; ~315 suites operated in Q4, ~1,000 keys licensed shortly after year-end, with full 2,405 keys targeted by May 2025, positioning Macau portfolio for margin expansion and EBITDA growth as room inventory normalizes .
  • Capital returns and ownership consolidation: $450M buybacks, dividend lifted to $0.25 per quarter for 2025, and incremental SCL purchases ($250M) increased ownership to 72.3%, reinforcing shareholder return and strategic control of Macau operations .

What Went Wrong

  • Macau hold and inventory headwinds: Low hold on rolling play reduced Macau adjusted property EBITDA by $22M, and reduced room inventory (Londoner ramp) pressured Macau margins and revenue mix (e.g., Venetian margin 36.7% vs 40.4% YoY) .
  • YoY compression in consolidated profitability: Net revenue declined 0.7% YoY ($2.90B vs $2.92B), operating income fell to $590M (from $710M), adjusted property EBITDA declined to $1.11B (from $1.20B), and diluted EPS fell to $0.45 (from $0.50) .
  • Retail turnover rent softness: Management cited Four Seasons mall turnover rents down YoY (approximately $27M lower in Q4 2024 vs prior year), reflecting broader consumer softness in luxury retail despite resilient premium gaming .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Revenues ($USD Billions)$2.92B $2.68B $2.90B
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$710 $504 $590
Net Income Attributable to LVS ($USD Millions)$382 $275 $324
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.50 $0.38 $0.45
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.57 $0.44 $0.54
Consolidated Adjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.20B $0.99B $1.11B
Adjusted Property EBITDA Margin % (Total)41.1% 37.0% 38.3%

Segment overview

SegmentMetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Macau OperationsNet Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.86B $1.77B $1.77B
Macau OperationsAdjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Millions)$654 $585 $571
Marina Bay SandsNet Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.06B $0.92B $1.14B
Marina Bay SandsAdjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Millions)$544 $406 $537

Property breakdown (Q4 2024)

PropertyNet Revenues ($USD Millions)Adjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Millions)EBITDA Margin %
The Venetian Macao$682 $250 36.7%
The Londoner Macao$518 $144 27.8%
The Parisian Macao$228 $69 30.3%
The Plaza Macao & Four Seasons$223 $83 37.2%
Sands Macao$86 $20 23.3%
Ferry Operations & Other$34 $5 14.7%
Marina Bay Sands$1,137 $537 47.2%

KPIs and hold impacts

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Hold impact on Adj. Prop. EBITDA – Macau ($USD Millions)$40 $2 $22
Hold impact on Adj. Prop. EBITDA – MBS ($USD Millions)$(71) $78 $(2)
The Venetian Macao Occupancy %98.7% 98.8% 99.5%
The Venetian Macao ADR ($USD)$202 $204 $205
Marina Bay Sands Occupancy %94.4% 94.7% 94.3%
Marina Bay Sands ADR ($USD)$647 $903 $927
Marina Bay Sands Rolling Chip Win %4.57% 1.75% 3.34%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Quarterly Dividend per Share2025$0.20 (2024 recurring) $0.25 (next payment Feb 19, 2025) Raised
Share Repurchase Authorization RemainingAs of 12/31/2024$2.0B authorization in place (Oct 22, 2024) $1.55B remaining as of 12/31/2024 Maintained (remaining capacity updated)
Sands China Ownership (%)Jan 7, 202571.31% (Oct 2024) 72.3% (after $250M purchases in Q4 and Jan) Increased

Note: LVS does not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance. Management reiterated confidence in investment-driven growth in Macau and Singapore .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Macau base-mass recovery & visitationQ2: Visitation recovery slowed, base mass impacted; tactical promotions amid Londoner closure . Q3: Premium strong; base mass softer; resilient GGR; stimulus could help over time .December SAR anniversary events impacted base mass; management still sees 2025 GGR >$30B and continued growth .Cautious near term, constructive medium term
Londoner Grand ramp & room inventoryQ2: Casino closed; ~1,500 keys out; more disruption in Q3 . Q3: 300 suites opened; lowest key count in Nov/Dec .~315 suites in Q4; ~1,000 keys licensed post year-end; full 2,405 keys by May 2025; new premium mass salon opened near Lunar New Year .Improving (inventory ramping)
Singapore ADR/non-rolling strengthQ2: ADR $797; strong non-rolling; added salons; tower gaming coming . Q3: ADR $903; non-rolling growth accelerated .ADR $927; strong non-rolling and slot growth; investments driving quality tourism; EBITDA $537M .Accelerating
Hold volatility & normalizationQ2: MBS low hold (-$64M EBITDA); debate on normalized assumptions . Q3: MBS low hold; Macau low hold impacts .MBS slight positive hold (+$2M EBITDA); Macau low hold (-$22M EBITDA) .Mixed but manageable
Capital returnsQ2: $400M buybacks; dividend $0.20 . Q3: $450M buybacks; $2.0B authorization; dividend increased for 2025 .$450M buybacks; $0.25 dividend; SCL stake increased to 72.3% .Sustained
New markets (NY, Thailand)Q2: Studying NY, Texas, Thailand; long-dated . Q3: IR2 scope expanded with casino; regulatory framework stable .NY timing uncertain and iGaming risk; Thailand viewed as distinct opportunity; Asia capacity non-cannibalizing .Cautious exploration
Retail turnover rentQ3: Luxury retail softness vs gaming resilience .Four Seasons turnover rent down YoY; major flagship openings planned to strengthen mix .Soft now, improving mix ahead

Management Commentary

  • “We remain enthusiastic about our opportunities to deliver industry-leading growth in both Macao and Singapore in the years ahead as we execute our capital investment programs in both markets.” — Robert G. Goldstein, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Macau EBITDA was $571 million for the quarter… If we had held as expected in our rolling program, our EBITDA would have been higher by $22 million… We will have substantially completed our $1.75 billion investment program at MBS by May of this year.” — Patrick Dumont, President & COO .
  • “Gross gaming revenue can should exceed $30 billion in 2025 and continue to grow… The scale and quality of the assets we've built are second to none.” — Robert G. Goldstein .
  • “Our financial strength and industry-leading cash flow continue to support… our program to return excess capital to stockholders.” — Robert G. Goldstein .

Q&A Highlights

  • SCL share purchases and capital allocation: Management intends to own more of SCL over time, citing conviction in Macau growth; continued shareholder-friendly returns at LVS and potential SCL dividends and note repayment discussed .
  • Londoner ramp cadence: Suites increasing to ~1,000 keys post year-end; full inventory by May; margins expected to recover as inventory returns; new premium mass salon opened near Lunar New Year .
  • Marina Bay Sands drivers: Broad-based strength across non-rolling table and slots; ADR reflects product quality; long-term ramp expected as Tower 3 and new amenities reach completion .
  • Hold normalization debate: Team evaluating whether normalized VIP hold at MBS should be adjusted higher, given prop/side bets and smart tables increasing theoretical win .
  • New York license timeline and iGaming risk: Timing uncertain; management flagged potential dilution to land-based returns if iGaming legalized; cautious approach to capital-intensive projects in such markets .
  • Retail turnover rent: Four Seasons turnover rents down YoY; major flagship openings planned to enhance tenant mix over 18–24 months .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) for Q4 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2023, and FY 2024; data was unavailable due to provider limits during this session. As a result, estimate comparisons could not be included. We will update this recap when S&P Global consensus is accessible [SPGI error: Daily Request Limit Exceeded].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential improvement with Q4 revenue at $2.90B and adjusted property EBITDA at $1.11B; margin ticked up vs Q3 as MBS strength offset Macau hold/inventory headwinds .
  • Marina Bay Sands is the growth engine: ADR at $927, non-rolling table and slots accelerating; EBITDA of $537M in Q4 even with modest negative hold impact; H1’25 completion should unlock further upside .
  • Macau positioned for rebound as Londoner Grand rooms return: ~1,000 keys now licensed, full 2,405 keys by May 2025; expect margin/EBITDA uplift with restored inventory and programming (Venetian Arena) .
  • Watch retail softness: Four Seasons turnover rent decline highlights macro/luxury headwinds; tenant mix upgrades (flagships) may stabilize/strengthen retail contribution over 18–24 months .
  • Capital returns remain a core catalyst: $450M buyback in Q4, dividend increased to $0.25, $1.55B remaining authorization, and SCL ownership now 72.3% .
  • Risk monitor: Macau base-mass recovery timing; hold volatility; NY/iGaming policy uncertainty; balance between reinvestment discipline and share recapture .
  • Near-term trading: Focus on room-inventory ramp, event calendar (e.g., NBA at The Venetian Arena in Oct-2025), and continued buybacks/dividends as potential sentiment drivers .