Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a leading global producer, distributor, and marketer of value-added frozen potato products, with French fries representing the majority of their product portfolio . The company operates in two reportable segments: North America and International . In North America, their products are sold to quick service and full-service restaurants, foodservice distributors, non-commercial channels, and retailers, under brands such as Lamb Weston, Grown in Idaho, and Alexia . Internationally, they sell similar products through various channels, including direct sales to restaurant chains and through importers or small local distributors . Lamb Weston has a strong presence in over 100 countries and is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America, with a significant presence in high-growth emerging markets .
- French Fries - Produces and markets a wide range of French fries, which are the primary product and major contributor to the company's revenue.
- Frozen Potatoes - Offers a variety of frozen potato products beyond French fries, catering to diverse culinary needs.
- Commercial Ingredients - Supplies potato-based ingredients for use in commercial food production and preparation.
- Appetizers - Provides a selection of frozen appetizers, expanding their product offerings beyond potatoes.
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What went well
- Lamb Weston plans to opportunistically buy back shares due to increased free cash flow in the back half of the year, bolstered by an additional $250 million share repurchase authorization.
- Despite short to medium-term challenges, Lamb Weston expects EBITDA margins to remain strong at 19% to 20%, with plans to expand margins over the longer term by pricing to offset inflation.
- The company remains confident in the long-term growth of the industry, citing continued category growth and positive french fries attachment rates, and is proactively managing its business to navigate the current environment.
What went wrong
- Lamb Weston is experiencing an increasingly competitive environment leading to customer losses, which were more significant than expected. Bernadette acknowledged that the competition was "more competitive than we originally thought it was going to be" ( ).
- The company lost another chain customer in North America and is taking longer than anticipated to regain lost accounts, indicating ongoing challenges in customer relationships. Thomas Werner stated, "it's taken us more time than what we had previously anticipated to regain some of those accounts" ( ).
- An activist investor is calling for significant board changes or for Lamb Weston to be sold, and management is not addressing these concerns publicly. When asked, Thomas Werner declined to comment, saying "I'll leave it at that" ( ).
Q&A Summary
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EBITDA Margin Outlook
Q: What's the new normalized EBITDA margin?
A: Management expects normalized EBITDA margins of 19% to 20% in the short to medium term, due to ongoing pressures. They aim to expand margins over time by offsetting inflation through pricing initiatives ( , ). -
Weak Demand Reasons
Q: Why is consumer demand weak? Is GLP-1 impacting it?
A: The decline in demand is primarily due to reduced restaurant traffic amid persistent inflation, leading consumers to trade down. They have not seen a significant impact from GLP-1 weight loss drugs and don't expect it to affect long-term demand. Importantly, fry attachment rates remain steady ( ). -
Industry Overcapacity
Q: Why is there industry overcapacity?
A: Companies expanded capacity based on historical demand growth, but restaurant slowdowns have led to excess capacity. Management views this as a transitory situation and believes some capacity additions may be delayed or not materialize ( , ). -
Customer Losses
Q: What's causing customer losses? Any reputation risk?
A: Customer losses were mainly due to competitive pricing pressures, not service issues or ERP challenges. The company is working to regain lost accounts by focusing on consistency, quality, innovation, and customer service. Relationships with large customers are improving, though it's taking longer than expected ( , , ). -
Operational Challenges
Q: What's behind production inefficiencies and gross margin declines?
A: Production challenges, including inefficiencies and unplanned downtime, have impacted margins. A new Chief Supply Chain Officer is addressing these issues, and improvements are being seen. They expect to return to normal efficiency levels over time ( , , ). -
International Pressures
Q: What's affecting international markets in Europe and Asia?
A: In Europe, competitive pressure and difficulties in passing through inflation due to a better-than-expected potato crop are causing challenges. In Asia, increased competition and prior ERP issues have led to pressure, but the company is making progress in regaining business in these markets ( ). -
Capital Allocation
Q: Any plans for share buybacks or CapEx changes?
A: The company extended its share buyback program with an additional $250 million authorization and plans to opportunistically repurchase shares as free cash flow increases. CapEx guidance remains at $550 million, focusing on maintenance and modernization ( , , ). -
Activist Investor Concerns
Q: Will there be board changes or a sale of the company?
A: Management did not comment on potential board changes or a sale, stating they are focused on earnings, business outlook, and leadership transition ( ). -
Leverage Target
Q: Has the leverage target changed?
A: The company maintains its leverage target of 3.5x, with no changes planned despite adjustments in capital spending and shareholder returns ( ).
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Given the ongoing challenging restaurant traffic trends and your recent capacity reductions, can you elaborate on how you plan to balance supply and demand if industry demand remains weak over the next year? Are further capacity adjustments anticipated?
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You've announced a restructuring plan to improve operating efficiency and protect profitability, including reducing your adjusted SG&A target. Could you provide more specifics on where these cost savings will come from, and how they might impact your operations and future growth initiatives?
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With the anticipated increase in your effective tax rate due to a higher proportion of income from your International segment and other discrete items, how confident are you in achieving your updated adjusted EBITDA and EPS targets in this challenging environment?
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Regarding the estimated $500 million in environmental capital expenditures over the next five years for wastewater capital investments, can you provide more details on what is driving these costs, how they will impact your free cash flow, and whether there are opportunities to mitigate or offset these expenses?
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As you have idled certain production lines due to lower demand, how are you managing the fixed cost deleverage, and what impact do you expect this to have on your gross margins in both the short term and if the demand environment doesn't improve in the long term? Do you have potential to further mitigate fixed cost deleverage beyond the incremental cost savings announced for next year?
Q1 2025 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q1 2025
- Guided Period: FY 2025
- Guidance:
- Net Sales: $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, growth of 2% to 5% .
- Adjusted EBITDA: Low end of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion .
- Adjusted SG&A: $680 million to $690 million .
- Interest Expense: Approximately $185 million .
- Effective Tax Rate: Approximately 25% .
- Adjusted Diluted EPS: $4.15 to $4.35 .
- Capital Expenditures: Approximately $750 million .
- Environmental Capital Projects: Approximately $150 million .
- Restructuring Savings: Approximately $55 million .
- Leverage Ratio: Current at 3x, target 3.5x .
Q4 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q4 2024
- Guided Period: FY 2025
- Guidance:
- Sales: $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, growth of 2% to 5% .
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion .
- Diluted EPS: $4.35 to $4.85 .
- Adjusted SG&A Expenses: $740 million to $750 million .
- Depreciation and Amortization Expense: $375 million .
- Interest Expense: About $180 million .
- Effective Tax Rate: Approximately 24% .
- Capital Expenditures: Approximately $850 million .
- Volume and Price/Mix: Volume decline in first half, increase in second half .
- First Quarter Specifics: Sales down mid- to high single digits .
Q3 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q3 2024
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Adjusted EBITDA: $350 million to $375 million for Q4 .
- Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.50 to $5.65 .
- Capital Expenditures: $950 million .
- Annual Effective Tax Rate: Around 23% .
- Depreciation and Amortization Expense: $300 million .
- Interest Expense: $140 million .
- Annual Net Sales: $6.54 billion to $6.6 billion .
- Fourth Quarter Sales: $1.69 billion to $1.75 billion .
- Fourth Quarter Volume: Decline mid-single digits .
- Adjusted EBITDA for the Year: $1.48 billion to $1.51 billion .
- Capital Expenditures for Fiscal 2025: 12% to 13% of sales .
Q2 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q2 2024
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Annual Net Sales Target: $6.8 billion to $7 billion .
- Price/Mix: Up low double digits for the full year .
- Volume: Down mid-single digits for the full year .
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.54 billion to $1.62 billion .
- Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.70 to $6.15 .
- SG&A: $745 million to $755 million .
- Interest Expense: $140 million .
- Depreciation and Amortization Expense: $305 million .
- Capital Expenditures: $900 million to $950 million .
Competitors mentioned in the company's latest 10K filing.
- Agristo NV
- Aviko B.V.
- Cavendish Farms Corporation
- Clarebout Potatoes NV
- Farm Frites International B.V.
- J.R. Simplot Company
- The Kraft Heinz Company
- McCain Foods Limited
These competitors are part of the highly competitive value-added frozen potato products industry in North America, Europe, and other international markets. They include large North American and European companies that compete globally, as well as local and regional companies. Some competitors are larger and have substantially more financial, sales and marketing, and other resources than Lamb Weston .
Recent developments and announcements about LW.
Corporate Leadership
CEO Change
Thomas P. Werner, the current CEO of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc., will step down from his role on January 3, 2025. He will be succeeded by Michael J. Smith, who has been appointed as the new President and CEO effective the same date. Werner will transition to a non-executive advisory role until August 31, 2025 .
Leadership Change
Thomas P. Werner is stepping down as President and CEO of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. on January 3, 2025. He will transition to a non-executive role as a Special Advisor until August 31, 2025 . Michael J. Smith will succeed him as the new President and CEO, effective the same date. Smith has been with the company since 2011, most recently serving as Chief Operating Officer .
Board Change
Michael J. Smith has been appointed as the new President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc., effective January 3, 2025. He will succeed Thomas P. Werner, who will step down from his roles on the same date .
Financial Reporting
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Revenue and Profit Performance: The company's second quarter performance was below expectations, attributed to weak restaurant traffic trends and additional capacity expansions by competitors, which have created an imbalance in global industry supply and demand, particularly outside North America .
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Management’s Forward Guidance: Lamb Weston is proactively adapting to the challenging environment by adjusting its operational footprint, reducing capital expenditures, managing costs, and improving cash flow. The company plans to focus on base, modernization, and environmental capital to increase free cash flow, which will provide more flexibility for capital returns to shareholders .
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Market Conditions and Strategic Initiatives: The company is evaluating opportunities to drive top-line growth by improving sales execution and expanding its total addressable market through proprietary technologies targeting nontraditional fry customers .
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Analyst Questions and Management Responses: Analysts inquired about leverage targets, customer demand, and capacity utilization. Management confirmed no changes to the leverage target, expecting a 3.5x leverage ratio . They also anticipate incremental volume from customer wins, particularly in the International segment . Regarding capacity utilization, Lamb Weston is currently in line with industry standards and expects improvements as operational challenges are addressed .
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Shareholder Returns: The company announced a $250 million increase in its share repurchase authorization, with approximately $560 million remaining under the program. Additionally, a $0.01 increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.37 per share was declared, continuing its history of annual dividend increases .
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Leadership Change: Thomas Werner will step down as CEO, with Mike Smith, the current COO, taking over as President and CEO starting January 3, 2025. This transition is part of a planned succession to guide the company into its next growth phase .
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Net Sales: The company reported net sales of $1,600.9 million, which is an 8% decline compared to the same quarter last year .
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Income from Operations: Income from operations fell significantly by 94% to $18.5 million .
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Net Income: The company experienced a net loss of $36.1 million, a decline of $251 million from the previous year .
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Earnings Per Share (EPS): Diluted EPS was a loss of $0.25, down from a profit of $1.48 in the prior year .
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Restructuring Plan: The results include a $159 million pre-tax charge related to a restructuring plan announced on October 1, 2024, which aims to drive operational efficiencies and improve cash flows .
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Adjusted Financials: Adjusted income from operations was $178.3 million, a 41% decrease, and adjusted net income was $94.5 million, down 55% from the previous year. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.66, a 54% decline .
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Dividends and Share Repurchase: The company paid $51.6 million in cash dividends and announced an increase in its share repurchase authorization by $250 million, bringing the total to $750 million .
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Outlook: Lamb Weston has updated its fiscal 2025 outlook, reducing its net sales target to $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion and its GAAP net income target to $330 million to $350 million. The company also adjusted its EBITDA target to $1,170 million to $1,210 million .
Earnings Call
Lamb Weston recently released its second quarter 2025 earnings call transcript. Key points from the call include:
Overall, Lamb Weston is navigating a challenging operating environment with strategic adjustments and a focus on maintaining shareholder value through disciplined capital management and operational improvements.
Earnings Report
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. has released its earnings results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025. Here are the key highlights:
The company attributes the financial performance to higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and softer volumes, with challenging conditions expected to persist through fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026 .