Lamb Weston - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 FY2025 delivered a clean beat against Wall Street: net sales rose 4% to $1.5205B, Adjusted Diluted EPS was $1.10, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 6% to $363.8M; consensus had expected ~$1.49B revenue, $0.87 EPS, and ~$300M EBITDA, making the results a broad-based beat. Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.
• Management reaffirmed FY2025 guidance (net sales $6.35–$6.45B; Adjusted EBITDA $1.17–$1.21B; Adjusted EPS $3.05–$3.20) and lowered Adjusted SG&A to $665–$675M from $680–$690M, signaling cost discipline amid softer traffic.
• Volume recovered (+9%) as ERP-related customer losses were replaced and new contracts won, but price/mix fell (−5%) due to planned price investments in a competitive market and soft global restaurant traffic (QSR burger down ~6% in February).
• Strategic actions: ongoing Restructuring Plan execution, AlixPartners engaged to drive near-/long-term value creation, $100M buyback in Q3, and $0.37 dividend declared; Board increased buyback authorization to $750M (remaining ~$458M).
• Tariff update: new U.S. import tariffs exempt USMCA-compliant Canadian plant; management does not expect a significant FY2025 impact, but notes risk of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports (mid- to high-teens percent of volume).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Volume strength and share gains: Company fully replaced prior ERP-related regional/small/retail losses; Q3 volume +9% YoY with contract wins across channels/geographies.
• Cost discipline and EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% YoY to $363.8M on higher sales volumes and lower Adjusted SG&A; SG&A benefited from restructuring and lower ERP-transition costs.
• Strategic initiatives: AlixPartners retained to accelerate value creation; Restructuring Plan on track to deliver at least $55M pretax savings in FY2025 and $85M in FY2026.

What Went Wrong

• Price/mix down and competitive pressure: Price/mix fell 5% overall (NA −4%, International −7%) due to price investments and international pricing actions amidst competition and FX headwinds.
• International profitability: International Segment Adjusted EBITDA declined to $93.2M (−8% YoY) on unfavorable price/mix despite volume gains.
• Higher depreciation and absorption headwinds: Incremental ~$16M depreciation tied to capacity expansions and higher factory burden absorption from curtailed lines pressured margins, with a sequential gross margin step-down expected in Q4.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Again, welcome to the Lamb Weston third quarter FY 2025 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Ms. Debbie Hancock, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Debbie Hancock (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Anna. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston's third quarter 2025 earnings call. I am Debbie Hancock, Lamb Weston's Vice President of Investor Relations. Earlier today, we issued our press release and posted slides that we will use for our discussion today. You can find both on our website, lambweston.com. Please note that during our remarks, we will make forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance that are based on our current expectations. Actual results may differ materially due to the risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results.

You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release and the appendix to our presentation. Joining me today are Mike Smith, our President and CEO, and Bernadette Madarieta, our Chief Financial Officer. Let me now turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Thank you, Debbie, and congratulations on your new role. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I am honored to be the CEO of Lamb Weston, a company with a long and proud track record of excellence in our industry. Throughout our history, Lamb Weston has been a leader in innovation, product quality, customer relationships, and operations. These are long-term strengths we will build upon to drive growth and shareholder value. I know this industry and this business. I recognize our recent challenges and understand our future risks and opportunities. To meet evolving industry dynamics, Lamb Weston needs to change. This is where my focus has been since I took over as CEO three months ago and where it remains. Everything is on the table, and we are moving with urgency.

We are amplifying our efforts with customers, and I have been personally meeting and hearing directly from them. We have engaged AlixPartners, a global advisory firm specializing in business optimization, to accelerate an end-to-end value creation plan. Not only are we focused on unlocking value both in the near term and long term, but also on defining the right go-forward strategy. The Lamb Weston team is talented and experienced. They are engaged and ready to embrace change. This notably includes our new Head of Global Supply Chain, who has already identified significant opportunities to win with our customers, reduce complexity and cost, as well as improve performance. We have over 30 projects underway this fiscal year and will deliver quick wins as part of a savings pipeline across multiple years.

For example, in the logistics space, we are right-sizing the use of different transportation modes and optimizing railcar loading. We also see the need for better balancing of our finished goods cold storage capacity and are executing a plan to exit surplus warehouse space. We are combining these projects with the value creation work as part of our enterprise-wide value creation program. These efforts will be on top of our previously announced restructuring plan, where we remain on track to deliver at least $55 million of pre-tax savings in fiscal 2025 and $85 million of pre-tax savings in fiscal 2026. Today, I'll update you on our progress to date, how we are controlling what we can control in a challenging market, and what's ahead.

On slide six, you'll see our third quarter performance reflects the hard work of the Lamb Weston team to regain business, grow volume, and lower expenses while operating in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Specifically, in the third quarter, we grew volume 9%, rebuilding after the transition to a new ERP in the prior year, increased net sales 4%, and grew adjusted EBITDA 6%. Despite this, all indications are that the consumer remains stretched, concerned about the economy, and looking for value. We saw this in the second quarter, and the consumer uncertainty has only increased since then. Turning to slide seven, as we finished our contracting late last year, visibility into our sales improved. We continue to reshape contracts, balancing when they come due, improving our ability to price with changes in the market, and providing customers continuity with Lamb Weston.

Our improved engagement is also enabling us to expand and retain our existing customers while also pursuing and winning new business. We are seeing success across channels. In away from home, we recently partnered with a large growing QSR that had previously been cutting their own fries, converting them to a frozen product. They'll be completing a national rollout of our product during the remainder of calendar 2025 and into early calendar 2026. In the in-home consumption space, we recently launched new private label products across the grocery and club channels that are off to a great start. We are working to build upon wins like these as we continue to identify new and growing customers to drive long-term sustainable growth in our business. Now turning to slide eight, along with improved customer relations, we are winning business because of our ability to innovate and meet our customers' evolving needs.

In North America, we launched new battered and seasoned products as well as Fridge Friendly fries and tots that can be held refrigerated up to seven days, expanding our addressable market by allowing us to sell to customers that may not have freezers. In our North America retail channel, we've expanded our licensed brand portfolio to include onion rings and Cheesy Potato Bites. Internationally, we launched a reimagined classic fry, the three-sided Frenzy Fries, and are receiving very positive feedback and demand signals. While we do not anticipate a near-term improvement in demand environment, we are controlling what we can control. We are focusing on gaining share, driving growth with existing customers, winning new customers, and operating with excellence. Now shifting to slide nine into the upcoming potato crop. In North America, contract negotiations for the 2025 crop are nearly complete.

Overall, we expect a mid-single-digit % decline in price in the aggregate and have largely secured the targeted number of acres across our primary growing regions. We contracted fewer acres given softer demand and higher inventory on hand. Planting is on schedule for the early potato varieties, and we expect planting for the main harvest to be completed by the end of April. In Europe, prices governed under fixed price contracts are currently in negotiations and expected to be flat on average for the 2025 potato crop. Contract planning across the European growing regions will continue through the end of April, and we'll provide our typical update on the outlook for potato crops in North America and Europe when we issue our fourth quarter earnings in July. Finally, an update on capacity.

As we discussed previously, we took steps to rationalize capacity earlier this fiscal year, closing our Connell, Washington plant, and curtailing additional lines across our network. These actions improved our capacity utilization. We are prepared to address changes in demand that require reducing or increasing production through line curtailments and restarts. In the near term, we expect the demand patterns will impact factory absorption. Since last quarter, we have seen additional capacity announcements primarily outside the U.S. The industry has historically been rational in respect to supply and demand and has made the necessary adjustments over the long term to stay in balance. While we cannot know if or when these plants will come online, and we believe some have been delayed, we will continue to focus on driving productivity while working to exceed our customers' expectations.

We are committed to ensuring we have the right capacity in the right geographies to meet our customers' needs while optimizing flexibility in our manufacturing footprint. As we execute our strategy, our board and management team continue to regularly engage with shareholders, and we appreciate constructive input that furthers our goal of creating sustainable, long-term value and attractive returns for our investors. This includes several discussions among members of our board, JANA and Continental Grain. I'll now turn the call over to Bernadette.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. As a result of the actions we took in early fiscal 2025 to drive operational and cost efficiencies, we closed the quarter with sequentially improved volume trends and profitability in line with our expectations. We were able to accomplish this even while the consumer remained pressured, which is reflected in the restaurant traffic data that I'll speak to in a moment. Despite uncertainty in the consumer macro environment, as well as softer restaurant traffic, we remain on track to meet our full year fiscal 2025 outlook. Starting on slide 10, net sales increased 4% compared with the prior year period.

Volume increased 9%, primarily driven by fully replacing the combined regional, small, and retail customer volume lost in the prior year as we transitioned to a new ERP system, as well as incremental volume from recent customer contract wins across each of our channels and geographic regions, net of volume losses. These benefits were partially offset by soft global restaurant traffic trends. While French fry attachment rates remain high at almost two points higher than pre-pandemic levels, the net volume increase in the quarter did slightly lag our expectations given soft restaurant traffic in both North America and international markets. Price mix declined 5% compared to the prior year quarter due to planned investments in price to compete in the increasingly competitive environment in both the North America and international segments. Looking at our segments, North America net sales grew 4% compared with the prior year.

Volume improved 8% and included fully replacing volume lost in the prior year as we transitioned to a new ERP system, as well as recent customer contract wins across each of our channels, net of other volume losses, primarily in quick service restaurants. These volume gains were partially offset by soft restaurant traffic trends. In the U.S., according to industry experts, QSR traffic worsened during our fiscal third quarter, declining 2% compared with the prior year quarter. Traffic at QSR chains specializing in hamburgers were down about twice as much in the quarter, with February traffic down 6%. As a reminder, about 85% of our North American sales are from food away from home channels, and the majority of that volume is sold through QSRs.

Price mix in our North America segment declined 4% due to planned investments in price and trade, which was only partially offset by favorable channel and product mix. The favorable mix was attributable to fully replacing the combined volume of higher margin regional, small, and retail customers. For our international segment, sales grew 5% versus the prior year quarter. Despite soft restaurant traffic in many of our key international markets, volume increased 12%, driven primarily by recent customer contract wins and to a lesser extent lapping unfilled orders in the prior year. Outside the U.S., according to industry experts, third quarter QSR restaurant traffic declined in most tracked markets, including the U.K., our largest market in Europe, as well as France, Germany, and Italy. Price mix was down 7%, reflecting pricing actions in key international markets in response to ongoing competitive environment, along with unfavorable changes in foreign currency rates.

On a constant currency basis, price mix decreased about 4%. Moving on from sales, on slide 11, you can see that adjusted EBITDA increased $20 million versus the prior year quarter to $364 million. The increase was primarily attributable to first, higher sales volumes and lower manufacturing costs per pound, which included lapping the impact of the ERP transition and a $25 million pre-tax charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes in the prior year. Second, recent customer and contract wins, net of other volume losses. Third, lower adjusted SG&A, which decreased $7 million, primarily related to lapping higher expenses associated with the ERP transition in the prior year quarter and the continued execution of our expense reduction initiatives, including those associated with the restructuring plan announced this past October. These were partially offset by the timing of compensation and benefit accruals.

These adjusted EBITDA improvements were partially offset by lower adjusted gross profit, which declined $7 million due to unfavorable price mix in response to a more competitive environment, higher overall transportation and warehousing costs resulting from higher inventory levels. Finally, while not impacting EBITDA, $16 million of incremental depreciation expense that is largely related to our capacity expansion in Idaho that was completed last fiscal year and our Netherlands expansion that was completed late in the second quarter of this fiscal year. As expected, adjusted gross profit increased sequentially from the second to the third quarter, which reflected the seasonal cost benefit of transporting and processing potatoes direct from the field, as well as the benefit from the lower raw potato prices negotiated in North America versus the prior year. For our North America segment specifically, adjusted EBITDA increased $15 million versus the prior year quarter to $301 million.

The increase was driven by a combination of higher sales and lower manufacturing costs attributable to lapping the effect of last year's ERP transition, new customer contract wins, and lower raw potato prices. These increases were partially offset by softer restaurant traffic and price investments made in a competitive environment. For our international segment, adjusted EBITDA declined $8.5 million to $93 million. Unfavorable price mix in an increasingly competitive environment in each region was only partially offset by increased sales volume and lower manufacturing costs per pound. Moving to our liquidity position and cash flows on slide 12. We ended the third quarter with approximately $1.1 billion of liquidity, comprised of approximately $1.05 billion available under our revolving credit facility and $68 million of cash and cash equivalents. Our net debt was $4.2 billion, which keeps our leverage ratio at 3.4 times on a trailing 12-month basis.

In the first three quarters of the year, we generated $485 million of cash from operations, which is up about $4 million versus the prior year due to favorable changes in working capital. These changes were mostly attributable to a greater build of inventory in the third quarter of the prior year related to the ERP transition. For the remainder of the year, we plan to continue reducing working capital, primarily through continued line curtailments and operational downtimes. The cash provided by favorable working capital trends was mostly offset by lower income after adjustments for non-cash operating activities. Turning to slide 13, capital expenditures through the end of the third quarter, net of proceeds from blue chip swap transactions in Argentina, were $563 million, down $251 million as we get closer to completing our expansion projects.

Our full year fiscal 2025 target remains at $750 million, a decrease of $250 million from last year. Depending on the timing of invoicing, our cash investments for the Argentina expansion may result in 2025 spending below $750 million and push into fiscal 2026. Aside from the timing related to cash paid for Argentina expansion-related expenditures, we estimate a $200 million reduction in fiscal 2026 capital expenditures, or $550 million in total, of which $400 million will be used for modernization and maintenance and $150 million for environmental investments, primarily for wastewater treatment. Next, capital return to shareholders on slide 14. We remain committed to returning cash to shareholders. We returned $151 million to shareholders in the quarter. After expanding our share repurchase authorization last quarter, we repurchased $100 million of shares, leaving us with $458 million available under the plan.

We will continue to repurchase shares opportunistically, and given the current share price, we may temporarily move slightly above 3.5 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. We also returned approximately $51 million in cash dividends. Before turning to our outlook, I want to address tariffs. Given the timing of yesterday's announcements and the uncertainty, we have not included any impact from tariffs in our financial outlook. As it relates to our business, we are a global business, which allows us to supply most of our customers with local regional supply. As it relates to U.S. imports of frozen French fries, a new universal baseline tariff of 10% plus an additional country-specific tariff for select trading partners will be assessed. This tariff relates to all U.S. imports except USMCA-compliant imports, which includes French fries imported from Canada.

As such, the products we manufacture at our one plant in Canada and import to the U.S. are exempt from the new tariffs. We source approximately 5% of our inputs from Canada, primarily edible oils and natural gas, which are also USMCA-compliant and therefore exempt from the tariffs. We are evaluating other expenditures to assess the impact of yesterday's announcements, but do not currently expect them to have a significant impact on our fiscal 2025 financial results. Finally, as it relates to U.S. exports, our manufacturing operations export in the mid to high teens as a percent of total volume and net sales, which could be subject to future retaliatory tariffs if imposed.

As you can see on slide 15, we continue to expect revenue in the range of $6.35 billion-$6.45 billion, which at the midpoint implies growth of about 1% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior year period. We expect a mid to high single-digit increase in volume in our international segment, primarily reflecting the benefit of incremental volume from recent customer contract wins across each of our geographic regions, net of recent volume losses. We expect North America volume to slightly decline, while regional, small, and retail volume is expected to increase compared with the prior year fourth quarter. Lost QSR customer volume and softer restaurant traffic is expected to offset these volume increases. We expect overall price mix will be down low to mid single digits.

In North America, we're forecasting price mix will decline low to mid single digits as pricing actions and softening restaurant traffic negatively impact product and channel mix. In international, we're forecasting price mix to be approximately flat on a constant currency basis as it continues being impacted by pricing actions in response to competitive dynamics in our key international markets. Our price investments in both segments are consistent with our prior expectations and will carry over into the next fiscal year. Moving to earnings. Despite continued softening restaurant traffic trends, the work we're doing across the organization to meaningfully reduce costs and improve efficiencies keeps us on track to achieving our full year guidance. For fiscal 2025, we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.17 billion-$1.21 billion.

Overall, we expect the benefit from incremental volume in our international segment will be largely offset by planned investments in price and higher cost per pound. Similar to the prior year, we expect a sequential decrease in adjusted gross margin. Using the midpoint of the guidance range, adjusted gross margins are expected to decline about 700 basis points, which is consistent with the decline between the third and fourth quarters in the prior year. The expected decline reflects an approximate 260 basis point decrease related to seasonal trends in our business, particularly the third quarter benefit from seasonally lower costs as we transport and process direct from the field, and about a 330 basis point decrease related to higher factory burden absorption. Specifically, fixed costs assigned to our curtailed lines are temporarily being absorbed by lower production levels, which is leading to higher cost per pound.

As we've previously discussed, in response to softer restaurant traffic and to reduce our inventory levels with temporarily curtailed production, we expect these costs will more than offset the manufacturing efficiencies we expect to realize from the restructuring actions we've taken. Moving to SG&A, we now expect adjusted SG&A in the range of $665 million-$675 million, down from the previous range of $680 million-$690 million. This implies a $20 million-$30 million sequential increase in adjusted SG&A from the third to the fourth quarter, which is expected to be primarily due to the timing of compensation and benefit expenses, expenses for outside advisor services for business optimization, and higher royalty expenses. Finally, we are targeting a full year effective tax rate of approximately 28%, excluding the impact of comparability items, which translates to a mid to high teen fourth quarter tax rate.

As Mike noted, our previously announced restructuring plan is well underway, and we remain on track to deliver at least $55 million of pre-tax savings in fiscal 2025, with two-thirds of that from reduced selling, general, and administrative expenses and one-third from cost of goods sold. Let me now turn the call over to Mike for some closing comments.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Thank you, Bernadette. In closing, we are laser-focused on our customers, delivering quality products, and optimizing our cost structure and operations to improve profitability. We are working with speed to complete the work we have begun on our value creation plan, and we are committed to providing more details as well as long-term financial targets once this work is further along. Lastly, I want to thank the global Lamb Weston team. I have pushed them hard in a short period of time and found them ready to tackle our mission with urgency.

I'm confident that we have the right team to guide the company through this period of change and deliver enhanced shareholder value. I'll now turn the time over for questions.

Operator (participant)

If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing Star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach your equipment. Once again, that is Star 1 if you would like to ask a question. We'll now take our first question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Great.

Andrew Lazar (Analyst)

Thanks so much. Good morning, everybody.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Morning, Andrew.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar (Analyst)

I guess, Mike, in thinking about some of your comments and the outlook around crop prices in North America, expected to be sort of down mid single digit or so, thinking about the sort of the ongoing weak restaurant traffic trends and some of the additional industry capacity that's coming on stream, I guess as you roll that all up, how do you think this sort of impacts key sort of QSR contract negotiations as you approach it sort of this summer? I'm just trying to get a sense of how you approach that given all these dynamics. Thanks so much.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, I appreciate the question. I appreciate the question, Andrew. I think it's important to remember we haven't really started those customer contract negotiations yet. Those will start in the summer and move through the fall.

While potatoes are expected to be down, it's also just a portion of our cost of goods. There are other inflationary impacts that are hitting the business and are offsetting some of that favorability. We will have to see how those effects transpire. The other thing that's unknown right now is any sort of effects from tariffs or reciprocal tariffs, retaliatory tariffs around the globe. We will have to take that into consideration as we are having those discussions and those contract negotiations with customers throughout this next customer contracting cycle.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

That's right, Mike. If I could just add, Andrew, I think it's important to think through too about a third of our cost of goods sold is raw potatoes. Then there's another 20-25% that's a combination of edible oils, packaging, and miscellaneous ingredients where we're seeing some inflation.

Another 40%-45% of our cost of goods sold is fixed overhead conversion, fuel, power, water, also where we're seeing some increases.

Andrew Lazar (Analyst)

That's helpful. Thank you for that. Just a quick one on the AlixPartners agreement. I'm just curious, obviously you're just starting getting going with that, but how would you put in context sort of where the bigger buckets of potential opportunity are? Is it mostly really on the cost side and productivity? Is it more on sort of, let's call it utilization, capital, sort of your capital allocation sort of approach? I'm just trying to get a sense of where you see potentially the bigger buckets versus maybe those that are not as compelling. Thank you.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, no, I appreciate that. It's really all the above. Just a reminder, the process we're taking is really two complementary work streams.

The first is a value creation plan. When we think about value creation plan, that's not only costs, which is a large focus of where we're spending our time, but it is value across the entire P&L. It's top line and ensuring how we drive more growth from a net sales standpoint. It's obviously the middle of the P&L with the costs and focusing on the things that you talked about, primarily around manufacturing, our throughputs, as well as our transportation, logistics, procurement, and down to SG&A. The other area that is focused on is around working capital, and we're spending a lot of time in that area. Now, that's the one side of it, Andrew, with the value creation. The other side is the long-term growth strategy.

We're really taking a data-driven approach and focusing on where to play and how we're going to win for the future. We'll bring that all together in a full plan that we'll share once we've gone through the process.

Andrew Lazar (Analyst)

Thank you.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator (participant)

We'll now take our next question from Thomas Palmer with Citi.

Thomas Palmer (Analyst)

Morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to maybe just first just ask on the 4Q gross margin. I think you've called out 330 basis points from higher fixed cost absorption. Why is that more of a headwind, I guess, when we think about 4Q versus last quarter? I think you also said gross margin down around 700 basis points in 4Q, but unless I missed something, the two items you called out added up to roughly 600 basis points. Just kind of what else the incremental is there?

Thank you.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Sure. No, thanks for the question, Tom. I think it's important to remember how our inventory turns and that the cost of the inventory that sold in the third quarter was mostly produced in the second quarter, which only had two months of our curtailed production lines. We were also running through the remainder of our crop that we'd negotiated in the prior year. We were running harder during that time period. Now, as we move forward to the fourth quarter, those are going to be the costs that relate to the three months where we've had some curtailed production lines. We've got lower production, and therefore we're going to have more cost per pound as a result of that fixed factory burden. That's really what is driving in terms of the seasonality of those trends.

Yes, I did point to the 330 basis points and the 260. That is the majority of it. Certainly, there is another 100 basis points where you are going to see increases in other input costs and other things. Those were a number of miscellaneous things, nothing of material importance that we felt like we needed to call out at this time. Certainly, as we work through our inventories and we are able to restart as necessary, that is going to help us with that absorption of fixed factory burden. Right now, we are balancing our overall footprint, and we needed to do that as we were pulling the crop out of harvest and finishing off last year's raw potatoes. That is why you are seeing that trend.

Thomas Palmer (Analyst)

Okay. No, thanks for all that. That is really helpful. Maybe I will just follow up with kind of on that inventory piece.

I think when you initially kind of introduced it a couple of quarters ago, it sounded like it was more isolated to fiscal 2025. I guess just any update on kind of working through the excess inventory and when we might start to see more of a positive inflection from that side. Thank you.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, the teams are really focused on it right now, Tom. As part of the value creation work that we are doing, we are putting extra emphasis around it, but it is top priority. There are some products and SKUs that we are long on inventory, and our selling organization is working on burning those down the right way. Our supply and planning team are also ensuring that we are not making products that we do not need to make. That goes back to what Bernadette was talking about.

We're taking some downtime in the plants, and we've curtailed some of those lines so that we can work down that inventory as quickly as possible. We are taking a very data-driven approach to it. With the work in our value creation plan, we want to push that even further.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Yeah, the only other thing I'd add, Mike, is that we are on track in terms of the stated targets that we spoke about previously to getting our inventory down to about 65 days at year-end. Still not where we want to be. We need to continue to work that down, and we have plans to continue to do that, which is only being emphasized with the work that we have underway in our end-to-end value creation plan that Mike spoke about.

Thomas Palmer (Analyst)

Right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We'll now take our next question from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Ken Goldman (Analyst)

Hi, thank you. You gave some helpful reasons why the bottom line might be under a little bit more pressure ahead. I won't regurgitate them here. If you look at the bottom end of your EPS guidance or implied guidance for 4Q, it does imply a little bit of a steep deceleration, really a drop-off in that two-year rate, right? Just kind of normalizing for last year. I'm just wondering, is there any conservatism built into your implied 4Q number on the bottom line that we should be aware of? Any more than usual, I guess, is the way to ask it.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Yeah, no, I would say, Ken, that there isn't any more conservatism that has been built in. We've seen soft restaurant traffic, as I mentioned, the last month of the quarter. QSR hamburgers were down 6%.

As it relates to our cost of goods sold, we are going to be seeing an increase there, particularly related to those curtailed lines that I spoke about. I would say this is a fair representation of the range that we expect to be in.

Ken Goldman (Analyst)

Okay, thank you. Just as we think about AlixPartners, you did talk about the value creation plan and how it's a little broader than maybe it might appear at first glance. I guess my question is this: Alix, they're known not only for helping and identifying with top line and cost saves, but also with really kind of broader strategic activities.

I guess my question is, as you think about your work with them, are really kind of all options for value creation on the table, or should we really think of this more as focused on fundamental top and bottom line efficiency, if that makes sense?

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, the way to answer that, Ken, is everything's on the table. We're definitely evaluating everything in terms of the markets we play in and how we're going to win and where we're going to win in the future. The primary focus of the group is to really focus on that value creation piece.

All levers of the P&L, like I talked about before, not only the top line growth, but also in the middle of the P&L and all the way through it in terms of finding the value and pushing us as an organization using data a little bit harder, taking that unbiased approach. That is where the time and focus is. It is really about improving the fundamentals of our business and getting the business back on track to execute with excellence and make sure we are delivering for our customers and also our shareholders.

Operator (participant)

Ken, did you have anything further?

Debbie Hancock (VP of Investor Relations)

Next question, Anna.

Operator (participant)

Yes, ma'am. We will move to Yasmine Deswandhy with BofA Securities.

Yasmine Deswandhy (Analyst)

Morning, guys. Thank you for the question. I just wanted to dig a little bit on slide nine in your slides on just the crop.

There was news out a few weeks ago on acreage reductions in the Columbia Basin, I believe, down mid-teens or so. How much of that do you attribute to the Connell closure versus how you see the market shaping up in the next 12 to 18 months in terms of demand?

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, for us, we did lower the amount of acres that we had going into this contracting season. Part of it is the softness of demand that we're seeing in the marketplace, the things that Bernadette talked about in terms of QSR traffic. The other area is that we have a lot of high-finished goods inventories, so we want to make sure that we're working those down the right way. Over the last couple of years, we've had carryover of raw into the new fiscal years, and we've been running through that raw.

We're in a position this year where we didn't need as much.

Yasmine Deswandhy (Analyst)

Got it. Helpful. Thank you. You mentioned the mid-single-digit decline in price in your slides. How much of that do you expect to fall to the bottom line versus reinvestment?

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

I think it's a great question. I mean, we haven't gone through any of the customer contracting for this coming year. As I mentioned earlier with Andrew's question, while raw is down, there are other inflationary impacts and inputs that are going to affect the business. We'll just continue to watch that. As we get into those negotiations, we'll update this group as we do in years past.

Yasmine Deswandhy (Analyst)

Okay, great. Thanks, guys.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next question will come from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow (Analyst)

Hi, thanks.

I wanted to ask about the Connell plant and what your plans are for the future. I think there was an article in a local paper speculating that you might sell it rather than shut it down. My concern would be if another operator comes in and keeps the capacity up, it might hurt your capacity utilization outlook. Similarly, a couple of your biggest competitors here in the U.S. had plans this year to start up new facilities or at least new production lines that were pretty significant. Is it your expectation that those are on track or not?

Yeah, let me answer the first part, Rob. As we discussed, we're doing this comprehensive review of our business, and so everything's on the table.

As part of that, we undertook really an exploratory process to understand the possibilities of potentially selling that Connell, Washington building, obviously just the building itself, none of the technology or anything that was inside of it. We have gone through our process. We have determined that a sale of that facility is not in the best interest of our business at this time. We will continue to complete our strategic review of other options that are out there. That one is off the table for right now. In terms of new facilities from other manufacturers here or even around the globe, we believe that there are some out there that have been delayed. We believe that some processors are taking extended downtime. We have heard that others have reduced acres similar to what we have as well.

I can't speak to any of the details around what our competitors or other manufacturers are planning to do with their capacity moving forward.

Helpful. Thank you, Mike.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yep.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Max Andrew Gumport with BNP Paribas Exane.

Max Andrew Gumport (Analyst)

Hey, thanks for the question. I was hoping to get a bit more commentary on the weakness in QSR traffic that you're seeing, particularly what you think is driving the sequential weakening in trends in particular for QSR hamburgers and then how that informs your demand forecast for FY 2026. Thanks very much.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, as Bernadette said, QSR traffic is down. Burger QSR was down 4%. It really comes back to the uncertainty with the consumer. There's obviously a lot going on from a macroeconomic perspective.

We're taking all those demand signals into account as we think about, as I just mentioned, the raw that we're sourcing, as well as the amount of downtime we're potentially taking in our facilities with curtailments, but also have the flexibility, should things turn around, to bring those lines and facilities back on so that we can keep up with any changes in demand. Anything you'd add, Bernadette?

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Nope. I think that covers it, Mike.

Max Andrew Gumport (Analyst)

Great. Thanks very much. I'll leave it there.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Thanks, Max.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next questions from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

Alexia Howard (Analyst)

Good morning, everyone.

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Good morning.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Hi, Alexia.

Alexia Howard (Analyst)

You’ve obviously got a pretty fast start on this broad-based turnaround plan. Can you talk about what's been most surprising as you've embarked on this process in terms of the biggest opportunities to improve performance and create value?

Anything that's been surprising to the negative side as well? Thank you, and I'll pass it on.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, as I think about the work that's been underway, I mean, we are in the early innings. I will tell you, it's a lot of the things that you'd expect around throughputs in our facilities, potato utilization, our logistics, procurement side of things, just across the board. The thing that I really appreciate, Alexia, that our advisors have been helping with on is really taking an unbiased, data-driven approach to this work and putting everything on the table. That way, we can evaluate all the options, and they're pushing us. I appreciate that and the work they're doing. I appreciate the leadership team here at Lamb Weston for embracing it and acting with urgency to make sure we get things turned around.

Alexia Howard (Analyst)

Great.

As a quick follow-up, in terms of diagnosing the continuing and deteriorating weakness in the burger chains, particularly in the U.S., do you have a good handle on what's driving that at this point? Is it the low-income consumer getting worse? Is it a higher-income consumer maybe slowing traffic in the burger chains? Is it possibly GLP-1 drug impact? I'm just wondering what rocks you're turning over to try and figure it out.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, I don't think we have a good read on the why. To answer the first part of your question, I will tell you that the French fry attachment rate, so the % of orders that have fries as part of that order, has remained strong and is still up a couple of points from pre-pandemic levels.

Folks are still out there purchasing French fries when they are going to QSRs.

Alexia Howard (Analyst)

Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator (participant)

We'll now take our next questions from Matt Smith with Stifel.

Matt Smith (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. North America volume was stronger than I think many were expecting. At the same time, you called out a slight volume decline into the fourth quarter. You walked through some of those factors that benefited the North America volume in the third quarter. Can you help bridge the plus eight to kind of down sequentially maybe by the factors that most benefited the third quarter that were more unique?

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Yeah, I'll take that, Matt.

As it relates to the factors that we expect to affect the fourth quarter, it's primarily the fact that we've seen and expect to see the continued increase in our small regional and retail volumes as we have lapped the ERP transition in the prior year. We saw that in the third quarter as well, that was more pronounced because the third quarter is the quarter that was impacted. What we're seeing in the fourth quarter is those increases are being offset by some of the lost customers that we've spoken about previously. What I can tell you is we do have a pipeline. Mike mentioned some of those in terms of those QSR volume wins that will be starting and being increased as next year progresses.

We will give more of an update on that when we give our guidance in next quarter call.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, Matt. The thing I'd add is we're putting a full-court press on the customer, ensuring that Lamb Weston gets back to a stronger customer-first mentality. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, I've been spending time out with these customers, our large customers, and listening directly from them. They value the innovation and the product quality and the consistency that Lamb Weston has had in the past. They want to have better continuity of supply and assured supply. That is where we're putting a focus. I'm happy to share that we have improved our fill rates and have some momentum behind us.

Matt Smith (Analyst)

Thank you for that.

As a follow-up, it sounds like you've done a lot, you're in process on doing a lot of work with AlixPartners and looking at your expense structure and revenue opportunities. Based on what you've seen to date, can you comment on how you view the 19-20% EBITDA margin that I think was discussed last quarter as an achievable level, perhaps in the medium term? Thank you, and I'll leave it there.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, Matt. We're not going to discuss that today. We have a lot of initiatives in play right now. I understand the need or the question. We'll come back as we get through this process, as we get through our annual operating plan, and we'll share that. We typically share our guidance on the next fiscal year in Q4, and we'll continue to do that in the future.

Operator (participant)

We'll now take our next question from Marc Torrente with Wells Fargo Securities.

Marc Torrente (Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Thank you for the question. I appreciate the update on the capacity outlook. Any change on your level of comfort around pricing to remain rational in North America? Maybe any signs of stabilization international? Price mix international was pretty weak. Was that in line with your own expectations, maybe absent FX? How are you thinking about that progressing from here? Thanks.

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, since last quarter, we have heard of some additional announcements. Most of those have been internationally, primarily in some of the developing markets. There's been rumors of delays and extended downtimes in areas.

As Bernadette said, with the softness in demand and some of the macroeconomic impacts, we believe price will be pressured over the course of the next, over the near term.

Operator (participant)

We'll now take our next question from Carla Casella with JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Ken Goldman (Analyst)

Hi. Two quick follow-ups. One on CapEx. It's nice to see you can increase your cash flow as you finish off some of these projects. I'm wondering, what's your maintenance level of CapEx beyond that? And do you think you've got more opportunities to change that?

Bernadette Madarieta (CFO)

Yeah, as it relates to capital spending, I think we've previously discussed that maintenance is about 3% of sales. Add another 2% of sales for modernization. Aside from that, it's environmental expenditures. Those are the three main components as it relates to our capital expenditure plans.

Carla Casella (Managing Director of Research)

Okay, great.

In your new business wins, is there a change in how the QSRs are operating? Are you seeing more? It sounds like some were just open to outsourcing. As that happens, are you seeing any different competitive threats as you bid on the project, the way you and your competitors go after it, or how the QSRs look to bid out those projects or those contracts?

Mike Smith (President and CEO)

One thing that we have been working on is, and I believe we mentioned this in prepared remarks, adjusting our contract schedule. In the normalized environment, typically, we would have about a third of our large chain customers come due for negotiations every year. We have cycled back to that. We will have about a third of those that will come due this coming contract cycle. Customers are starting to look towards driving traffic to their restaurants, given the environment.

Operator (participant)

They are open to some new ideas and new innovation, as we spoke to already.

Okay, great. Thank you. It appears there are no further telephone questions. I would like to turn the conference back over to Debbie for any additional or closing comments.

Debbie Hancock (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Anna. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. The replay of the call will be available on our website later this afternoon. I just hope everyone has a good rest of your day. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

That does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.