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    Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)

    Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 7, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$78.22Last close (Dec 18, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$65.96Open (Dec 19, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-12.26(-15.67%)
    • Lamb Weston plans to opportunistically buy back shares due to increased free cash flow in the back half of the year, bolstered by an additional $250 million share repurchase authorization.
    • Despite short to medium-term challenges, Lamb Weston expects EBITDA margins to remain strong at 19% to 20%, with plans to expand margins over the longer term by pricing to offset inflation.
    • The company remains confident in the long-term growth of the industry, citing continued category growth and positive french fries attachment rates, and is proactively managing its business to navigate the current environment.
    • Lamb Weston is experiencing an increasingly competitive environment leading to customer losses, which were more significant than expected. Bernadette acknowledged that the competition was "more competitive than we originally thought it was going to be" ( ).
    • The company lost another chain customer in North America and is taking longer than anticipated to regain lost accounts, indicating ongoing challenges in customer relationships. Thomas Werner stated, "it's taken us more time than what we had previously anticipated to regain some of those accounts" ( ).
    • An activist investor is calling for significant board changes or for Lamb Weston to be sold, and management is not addressing these concerns publicly. When asked, Thomas Werner declined to comment, saying "I'll leave it at that" ( ).
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    -8%

    The decline was driven by lower volumes in North America (due to share losses and soft restaurant traffic) and the carryover effect of exiting certain lower-margin business in Europe in prior quarters. While inflation-driven pricing helped offset part of the drop, net sales were still pressured by weaker demand and product mix shifts.

    North America

    -8%

    A continued volume decline in the U.S. and Canada was amplified by customer share losses and muted restaurant traffic, building on trends observed in previous periods. Strategic decisions to focus on higher-margin channels further reduced sales volumes, despite some benefit from ongoing pricing actions.

    International

    -6%

    Previous-quarter cuts to lower-priced contracts in Europe and the lingering impact of a voluntary product withdrawal constrained international volume. Growth in Latin America and Asia-Pacific only partially offset these headwinds, resulting in a net decline.

    COGS

    +5%

    Input cost inflation (notably higher raw potato costs) and inefficiencies from underutilized production lines pushed up per-pound manufacturing expenses, continuing the trend from earlier quarters. Although supply chain productivity initiatives offered some relief, they did not fully offset these higher costs.

    SG&A

    >900% increase from $17M in Q2 2024 to $184.7M

    This sharp jump reflects one-time costs (including higher IT investments and potential integration expenses) combined with the normalization of expenses from an unusually low base in the prior year. Additionally, unrealized mark-to-market currency and hedging losses contributed to the spike, building on cost pressures seen in previous quarters.

    Operating Income

    -94%

    Lower gross profit from declining sales volumes and rising manufacturing costs, alongside pronounced SG&A increases, severely narrowed margins. Although pricing actions helped partially, they could not offset the combined impact of higher costs and volume losses, resulting in a steep drop in operating income.

    Net Income

    From $215M to - $36.1M

    The swing to a net loss was primarily driven by substantially lower operating income and increased cost burdens, including one-time SG&A items. A higher effective tax rate and carryover effects of voluntary product withdrawal charges from previous periods also contributed to the negative bottom line.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Sales

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $6.35B to $6.45B

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1.17B to $1.21B

    no prior guidance

    CapEx

    FY 2025

    $550 million

    $750 million

    raised

    Net Sales

    2H FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $3.1B to $3.2B

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    2H FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $600 million to $640 million

    no prior guidance

    EBITDA margins

    Short to medium term

    no prior guidance

    19% to 20%

    no prior guidance

    Volume

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to grow

    no prior guidance

    Price/Mix

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to decline

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Net Sales
    Q2 2025
    $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion
    1,600.9 million(Note: 1,654.1In Q1 2025, total ~3.255B for first half, annualized ~6.51B)
    Miss
    Adjusted EBITDA
    Q2 2025
    Low end of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion
    Not reported in provided documents
    N/A
    Adjusted SG&A
    Q2 2025
    $680 million to $690 million
    184.7 million(Note: 143.9In Q1 2025, total ~328.6M for first half, annualized ~657M)
    Beat
    Interest Expense
    Q2 2025
    Approximately $185 million
    43.3 million(Note: 45.2In Q1 2025, total ~88.5M for first half, annualized ~177M)
    Beat
    Effective Tax Rate
    Q2 2025
    Approximately 25%
    Not reported in provided documents
    N/A
    Adjusted Diluted EPS
    Q2 2025
    $4.15 to $4.35
    -0.24(Note: 0.88In Q1 2025, total ~0.64 for first half, annualized ~1.28)
    Miss
    Capital Expenditures
    Q2 2025
    Approximately $750 million
    148.7 million(Note: 325.9In Q1 2025, total ~474.6M for first half, annualized ~949M)
    Miss
    Environmental CapEx
    Q2 2025
    Approximately $150 million
    Not separately reported in provided documents
    N/A
    Restructuring Savings
    Q2 2025
    Approximately $55 million
    Not reported in provided documents
    N/A
    Leverage Ratio
    Q2 2025
    Current 3x, Target 3.5x
    Not reported in provided documents
    N/A
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Persistent Softness in Restaurant Traffic

    Q1 2025: Traffic down 2%, soft but slightly better than Q4 2024. Q4 2024: Prolonged traffic softness with accelerating declines. Q3 2024: Soft traffic driving volume declines, uncertain recovery timeline.

    Fifth consecutive quarter of consumer traffic decline, especially in QSR; uncertain volume recovery

    Recurring; sentiment still cautious, with incremental improvements and persistent headwinds

    Market Share Dynamics

    Q1 2025: Recovering lost share post-ERP issues, new chain wins in International. Q4 2024: Share losses from executional challenges. Q3 2024: Lost share but working to regain via higher-margin products.

    Incremental share losses in NA & International, slower-than-expected recovery; some new business wins

    Recurring; company remains focused on regaining lost accounts and capturing new wins

    Confidence in Long-Term Fry Category Growth

    Q1 2025: Remains confident in global fry demand despite declining traffic. Q4 2024: Expects return to historical growth as market adjusts. Q3 2024: Forecasting 2%-4% long-term growth.

    Reaffirmed long-term fry growth outlook despite short-term pressures, citing steady fry attachment rates

    Recurring; consistently bullish on category resilience

    Operational Efficiencies & Cost Management

    Q1 2025: Restructuring plan, plant closure, SG&A cuts, modernizing manufacturing footprint. Q4 2024: Evaluating network for cost savings. Q3 2024: ERP disruptions raised costs, margin pressures.

    Addressing unplanned downtime, lower utilization, aiming for cost reductions; new supply chain leadership driving improvements

    Recurring; gradual benefits expected as initiatives ramp up

    Capacity Utilization & Production Adjustments

    Q1 2025: Closed Connell facility (5% NA capacity), temporarily idled lines. Q4 2024: Managing new capacity to match soft demand. Q3 2024: Concern over rising industry capacity amid soft traffic.

    Low 90% utilization; some line suspensions due to downtime, start-up issues at expansions

    Recurring; ongoing right-sizing of production to align with demand

    Share Repurchase & Capital Allocation

    Q1 2025: Repurchased 1.4M shares ($82M); no new authorization details. Q4 2024: $210M repurchased in FY2024, focus on strategic investments. Q3 2024: Ongoing buybacks and dividend returns.

    Authorized an additional $250M, total $560M for buybacks; dividend increase; shifting capex to modernization

    Recurring; new repurchase authorization indicates continued focus on shareholder returns

    ERP Transition Challenges

    Q1 2025: Delayed future ERP phases, working to regain share lost in transition. Q4 2024: Disruptions affecting order fulfillment and share. Q3 2024: $95M impact from ERP issues.

    Lingered in International; some customer recovery ongoing, incremental noncash ERP amortization

    Recurring; impact diminishing but still a factor

    International Expansion & M&A

    Q1 2025: Growth in Asia Pacific & Latin America; new plant coming soon. Q4 2024: No specific mention. Q3 2024: Evaluating international M&A.

    No mention in Q2 2025

    Previously discussed; not addressed in current call

    Pricing Actions & Margin Pressures

    Q1 2025: Price/mix +2%, offset by higher manufacturing costs, more price investments ahead. Q4 2024: Targeted price/trade support, margin below target. Q3 2024: Price up, offset by unfavorable mix.

    Price/mix down 3% in NA; EBITDA margin guided at 19%-20% due to competition, inflation

    Recurring; competition constraining pricing power and pressuring margins

    Impact of Europe’s Potato Crop

    Q1 2025: In line with historical averages, no major detail. Q4 2024: Expecting below-average crop, driving higher costs. Q3 2024: Noted price up mid-single digits, more detail promised in Q4.

    Crop improved vs. initial low outlook, leading to competitive market and limited cost pass-through

    Ongoing; volatility in crop outlook influencing cost and competition

    Lowered EBITDA Margin Guidance

    Q1 2025: Targeting lower end of range after product withdrawal, cost deleveraging. Q4 2024: Margin below target, product withdrawal impact, unfavorable mix. Q3 2024: Reduced annual guide from ERP disruptions.

    Trimmed to 19%-20% near term, citing inefficiencies, competition, and cost inflation

    Recurring; persistent caution on near-term profitability

    1. EBITDA Margin Outlook
      Q: What's the new normalized EBITDA margin?
      A: Management expects normalized EBITDA margins of 19% to 20% in the short to medium term, due to ongoing pressures. They aim to expand margins over time by offsetting inflation through pricing initiatives ( , ).

    2. Weak Demand Reasons
      Q: Why is consumer demand weak? Is GLP-1 impacting it?
      A: The decline in demand is primarily due to reduced restaurant traffic amid persistent inflation, leading consumers to trade down. They have not seen a significant impact from GLP-1 weight loss drugs and don't expect it to affect long-term demand. Importantly, fry attachment rates remain steady ( ).

    3. Industry Overcapacity
      Q: Why is there industry overcapacity?
      A: Companies expanded capacity based on historical demand growth, but restaurant slowdowns have led to excess capacity. Management views this as a transitory situation and believes some capacity additions may be delayed or not materialize ( , ).

    4. Customer Losses
      Q: What's causing customer losses? Any reputation risk?
      A: Customer losses were mainly due to competitive pricing pressures, not service issues or ERP challenges. The company is working to regain lost accounts by focusing on consistency, quality, innovation, and customer service. Relationships with large customers are improving, though it's taking longer than expected ( , , ).

    5. Operational Challenges
      Q: What's behind production inefficiencies and gross margin declines?
      A: Production challenges, including inefficiencies and unplanned downtime, have impacted margins. A new Chief Supply Chain Officer is addressing these issues, and improvements are being seen. They expect to return to normal efficiency levels over time ( , , ).

    6. International Pressures
      Q: What's affecting international markets in Europe and Asia?
      A: In Europe, competitive pressure and difficulties in passing through inflation due to a better-than-expected potato crop are causing challenges. In Asia, increased competition and prior ERP issues have led to pressure, but the company is making progress in regaining business in these markets ( ).

    7. Capital Allocation
      Q: Any plans for share buybacks or CapEx changes?
      A: The company extended its share buyback program with an additional $250 million authorization and plans to opportunistically repurchase shares as free cash flow increases. CapEx guidance remains at $550 million, focusing on maintenance and modernization ( , , ).

    8. Activist Investor Concerns
      Q: Will there be board changes or a sale of the company?
      A: Management did not comment on potential board changes or a sale, stating they are focused on earnings, business outlook, and leadership transition ( ).

    9. Leverage Target
      Q: Has the leverage target changed?
      A: The company maintains its leverage target of 3.5x, with no changes planned despite adjustments in capital spending and shareholder returns ( ).

    Research analysts covering Lamb Weston Holdings.