Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong confidence in long-term growth and resilience of the category: The CEO believes in the long-term resilience of the industry and expects global demand to return and grow, even through current softness.
- Active pursuit of international acquisition opportunities: The company continues to evaluate international acquisition opportunities to drive future growth, indicating a proactive expansion strategy.
- Maintained strong customer relationships despite challenges: Despite recent operational challenges, the company has maintained good relationships with major customers, with no significant fallout, demonstrating strong customer trust and loyalty.
- Lamb Weston expects mid-single-digit volume declines in Q4 due to softer restaurant traffic trends in North America and key international markets, which may impact sales and profitability.
- Consumers are adjusting to higher menu prices, leading to decreased restaurant traffic, and it will take time for traffic to recover, potentially prolonging the negative impact on the company's performance.
- Recent ERP system transition issues caused significant operational disruptions, including shipment delays and canceled orders; although service levels have been restored, some customers may temporarily secure supply from alternative sources, affecting future volumes and customer relationships.
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Slowing Restaurant Traffic and Capacity
Q: How will slowing restaurant traffic affect pricing?
A: Management acknowledges that restaurant traffic trends have been soft but expects this to be a temporary outlier. They plan to manage incoming capacity carefully, as they have in the past, and remain confident in the long-term trajectory of the category, expecting growth to return to 2% to 4% at a minimum. -
Volume Decline and Outlook
Q: What's causing the current volume decline?
A: The company experienced a 16% decline in volume for the quarter, with 8 points due to the ERP transition. Underlying volumes declined 4% to 5% due to softer traffic trends, which are expected to remain soft in Q4. The decline is more industry-driven, with softer restaurant traffic impacting volumes. -
Confidence in Long-term Outlook
Q: Does soft traffic change your long-term expectations?
A: Management remains confident in their long-term growth algorithm despite current softer traffic. They believe the category will continue to grow and see no reason to adjust their rhythm at this point. They are confident in the long-term resilience of the category and expect global markets to return. -
CapEx Plans and Capital Allocation
Q: How will you manage CapEx amid slower demand?
A: The company maintains elevated CapEx levels for this year and next, committed to projects in the Netherlands and Argentina. CapEx in fiscal '25 is expected to be 12% to 13% of sales, consistent with prior guidance. -
Non-recurring Costs and EBITDA
Q: Will non-recurring costs impact next year's EBITDA?
A: Management acknowledges absorbing certain costs in fiscal '24, such as inventory write-offs and ERP disruption costs. Excluding these non-recurring costs could bring EBITDA closer to $1.7 billion as a base for fiscal '24. They will assess restaurant traffic trends' impact on volume moving forward. -
Regaining Market Share Post-ERP
Q: How will you recover lost market share?
A: Management is working to win back customers after the ERP transition impacted service. They have activated their direct sales force of 300 salespeople and are confident in their plan, but acknowledge it will take time. Rebuilding relationships will take several months, coinciding with contracting cycles. -
Price/Mix Improvement
Q: Will price/mix improve in upcoming quarters?
A: Price/mix is expected to improve sequentially in Q4 , as they resume fulfilling higher-margin orders previously impacted by order fulfillment issues. In fiscal '25, favorable mix impact is anticipated due to new capacity allowing for more premium products. -
Potato Costs and Pricing
Q: How will lower potato costs affect pricing?
A: Potato costs are expected to decrease by 2% to 3% for the 2024 crop. However, previous years saw significant increases, and inflationary pressures persist in other input costs. The company does not expect double-digit inflation but will still deal with some inflation. -
M&A Plans
Q: Are you still pursuing M&A opportunities?
A: International acquisition opportunities are not off the table. The company continues to evaluate potential deals and will proceed if opportunities arise, despite the ongoing ERP implementation. -
Dividends and Share Buybacks
Q: What's your approach to dividends and buybacks?
A: The company is committed to the dividend and will evaluate share buybacks as they assess CapEx. They will consider buybacks, especially given current equity price pressures.
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