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    Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)

    LW Q4 2025: Flags 17% EBITDA Margin Target as New Floor

    Reported on Jul 24, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$49.17Last close (Jul 22, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$56.06Open (Jul 23, 2025)
    Price Change
    $6.89(+14.01%)
    • Robust Customer Engagement and Volume Growth: Management highlighted strong customer relationships and significant contract wins that boosted volumes—including international volume up 16%—underscoring the company's ability to drive growth even in a competitive environment.
    • Disciplined Cost Management and Working Capital Improvements: The team is executing cost-saving and inventory management initiatives, evidenced by targeted $250,000,000 cost savings and notable working capital improvements, positioning the company for margin stabilization as seasonal benefits materialize.
    • Favorable Competitive Position Amid Global Capacity Adjustments: Comments in Q&A confirmed that most new capacity announcements and delays are occurring internationally—leaving North American operations well-protected—thus supporting pricing power and future margin recovery.
    • Margin Pressure: Analysts questioned the company’s EBITDA margin target of 17%, noting that this level is the lowest since the firm was spun off. The combination of aggressive pricing, supportive trade actions in a competitive environment, and increased fixed cost absorption could constrain profitability further.
    • Competitive Risks from International Capacity: Executives acknowledged that while announced new capacity is largely overseas, the competitive advantage of such facilities remains uncertain. This exposure to evolving international markets, where capacity may eventually ramp up despite current delays, could intensify pricing pressures.
    • Ongoing Working Capital and Inventory Challenges: Despite improvements, questions remain about the ability to sustainably manage higher inventories and working capital given recent carryover pricing actions and reduced crop acres. These factors might continue to pressure liquidity and margin performance in the near term.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue (Q4 2025)

    Increased from $1,611.9 million to $1,675.8 million

    Total revenue grew by approximately $63.9 million, reflecting modest overall improvement. This increase was driven by strong gains in international sales that helped offset near-flat performance in North America, suggesting that previous operational challenges—such as ERP-related disruptions—are being resolved while global market initiatives begin to bear fruit.

    North America Revenue (Q4 2025)

    Nearly flat at $1,103.1 million, down slightly from $1,113.2 million

    North America revenue remained essentially unchanged, declining by about $10.1 million. This stability indicates that while previous ERP system issues and soft restaurant traffic trends had weighed on past performance, corrective measures and customer volume recovery have stabilized the segment, though lingering pricing and channel challenges continue to limit growth.

    International Revenue (Q4 2025)

    Increased by approximately 15% from $498.7 million to $572.7 million

    International revenue saw a robust 15% increase, adding around $73.9 million. This strong performance is attributed to solid volume growth driven by new contract wins and strategic exits from lower-margin lines in earlier periods, coupled with regaining momentum after previous ERP transition-induced disruptions, which collectively yielded significant sales growth in international markets.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    FY 2026

    $6.35B–$6.45B

    $6.35B–$6.55B

    raised

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2026

    $1.17B–$1.21B

    $1.00B–$1.20B

    lowered

    Adjusted Gross Profit

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Expected to be down due to carryover pricing, cost support for customers, low single‐digit inflation, and higher fixed factory burden

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted SG&A

    FY 2026

    $665M–$675M

    Expected to increase compared with the prior year due to an incremental $40M headwind and approximately $10M of incremental investments

    raised

    Cost Savings Program

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Targeting approximately $200M of full savings by end fiscal 2027, with about half on a run rate basis in fiscal 2026

    no prior guidance

    Effective Tax Rate

    FY 2026

    28%

    Approximately 26% for fiscal 2026, excluding the impact of comparability items

    lowered

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2026

    $750M

    Approximately $500M, with around $400M for maintenance/modernization and $100M for environmental projects

    lowered

    Potato Crop Costs

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    In North America, a mid-single-digit decrease in contract prices; in Europe, expected to be flat to slightly lower than prior year’s fixed price contracts

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    FY 2025
    $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion
    $6.451 billion (Q1: 1,654.1, Q2: 1,600.9, Q3: 1,520.5, Q4: 1,675.8)
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Customer Engagement

    In Q1, efforts focused on recapturing customer share using a direct sales force and winning new chain business. In Q2, the company worked on rebuilding trust and exploring nontraditional opportunities. In Q3, there was strong emphasis on improved customer relations through CEO engagement and strategic contract reshaping.

    In Q4, the CEO emphasized customer centricity, expanding partnerships and providing pricing support to customers.

    Consistent focus with increased emphasis on strategic customer partnerships and proactive engagement.

    Volume Growth

    Q1 saw challenges with volume declining 3% amid a voluntary product withdrawal and lost share. In Q2, recovery was driven by lapping ERP‐related impacts and incremental customer wins. Q3 reported robust volume growth (9% overall; 8% in North America and 12% internationally) due to replacement of lost volume and contract wins.

    Q4 delivered an 8% increase, driven by new contract wins across channels and improved inventory management.

    Steady recovery from past declines with consistent growth despite mixed global trends.

    Cost Management and Margin Performance

    Q1 highlighted restructuring actions such as facility closures, production curtailments, and headcount reductions that pressured margins. In Q2, cost adjustments were made amid challenging manufacturing efficiencies and revised EBITDA guidance. Q3 focused on restructuring plan savings, reduced SG&A, and operational adjustments to manage fixed costs.

    Q4 featured a comprehensive cost savings program targeting $250 million annualized savings, zero‐based budgeting, yet margin pressure persisted due to pricing and production curtailments.

    Ongoing cost reduction efforts continue while margin pressures persist; initiatives are maturing but challenges remain.

    Pricing Strategies and Price/Mix Dynamics

    In Q1, the environment was described as competitive with a modest 2% price/mix increase, though future negative mix was expected. Q2 saw a decline in price/mix (2%-3%) across segments due to competitive pressures. Q3 reported further declines (4% in North America and 7% in international, on a constant currency basis) resulting from planned pricing investments.

    Q4 saw a 4% overall decline in price mix with strategic pricing actions undertaken to support customers in a competitive environment.

    Consistent competitive pricing measures with increasing investments; the outlook for price mix remains pressured.

    Competitive Landscape and Capacity Management

    Q1 centered on restructuring with facility closures and curtailments to manage capacity. In Q2, competitive pressures led to incremental customer share losses internationally while efforts were made to improve utilization. Q3 highlighted competitor capacity announcements, contract adjustments, and temporary production curtailments to optimize inventory.

    Q4 discussed an evolving global market with strong demand in emerging markets and proactive capacity management through reduced acreage and enhanced planning capabilities.

    Continuous capacity adjustments in response to evolving competitive dynamics, with an increased focus on aligning production with market demand.

    Working Capital and Inventory Management

    Q1 emphasized addressing very high inventory levels via production curtailments and working capital improvements. Q2 noted seasonal peaks in inventories being worked down, contributing nearly $430 million in cash from operations. Q3 continued a strong focus on reducing excess inventory and achieving target inventory days through data-driven production adjustments.

    Q4 achieved significant working capital improvement of $349 million with inventory days reduced by eight days and investments in integrated planning.

    Consistent focus on inventory reduction and working capital efficiency, with notable gains realized in Q4.

    Legacy ERP Transition Recovery

    Q1 addressed challenges from the ERP transition with efforts to recapture lost volume and a pause on further ERP releases. Q2 improvements included recovering canceled shipments and incremental volume gains from past ERP issues. Q3 saw full replacement of lost volume and cost benefits from lapping higher ERP expenses.

    Q4 recognized benefits from lapping ERP transition expenses, contributing to lower adjusted SG&A, signaling continued recovery.

    Progressive recovery from legacy ERP disruptions; benefits are increasingly evident in cost structure.

    Share Repurchase and Capital Allocation Initiatives

    Q1 reported returning over $133 million in cash (with $82 million used for repurchases). Q2 saw an increased share repurchase authorization of $250 million along with dividend increases and a disciplined capital allocation approach. Q3 continued with opportunistic repurchases ($100 million) and additional dividend returns while managing leverage ratios.

    Q4 continued with a $100 million share repurchase in the quarter, reporting $282 million repurchased year‐to‐date and a committed capital allocation strategy.

    Steady, opportunistic approach with increasing authorizations and balanced shareholder returns maintained throughout.

    Governance and Activist Investor Concerns

    Q1 had no notable discussion on governance or activist concerns. Q2 included an analyst raising activist investor concerns with management deferring comment. Q3 did not mention governance topics [N/A].

    Q4 saw proactive governance actions with significant board changes, a new Chairman, and board compensation aligned in equity to reinforce long-term value.

    Emerging focus in Q4 to strengthen governance; while activist concerns were sporadic, recent board changes signal a strategic commitment to alignment with shareholders.

    Environmental Compliance and Capital Expenditure Pressures

    Q1 mentioned environmental capital projects with planned investments around $150 million and a long‐term outlook of $500 million over five years. Q2 reported heightened capex pressures with total spending near $750 million, and emphasized future capex reductions with separate allocations for environmental investments. Q3 detailed environmental investments for fiscal 2026 and breakdowns of maintenance versus environmental spending.

    Q4 incorporated environmental compliance within a broader disciplined capex plan and cost savings program, with less detailed figures but continuity of spending priorities.

    Continued pressure from environmental compliance remains, with a gradual shift toward maintenance and environmental spending as capex is more tightly managed.

    Financial Leverage and Flexibility

    Q1 reported a net debt position with a leverage ratio of about 3x, emphasizing comfort with the level and the option to deploy additional flexibility. Q2 maintained a target leverage of 3.5x with increased share repurchase authorizations and focus on free cash flow generation. Q3 showed stable liquidity with net debt around $4.2 billion and a 3.4x leverage ratio.

    Q4 ended with strong liquidity of $1.24 billion, a net debt of $4.1 billion, and an improved leverage ratio of 3.3x as well as robust operating cash flow.

    Stable and improving financial flexibility through disciplined capital management and strong liquidity generation over the periods.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Is the 17% margin target a floor?
      A: Management noted margins will be below the normalized range in fiscal 2026, reflecting disciplined cost support and strategic investments to win when demand recovers.

    2. International Capacity
      Q: Will announced capacity materialize outside the US?
      A: They explained that most new capacity is abroad—with roughly $1–1.5B pounds of projects canceled or delayed—and no significant projects are advancing in North America.

    3. Working Capital
      Q: How will inventory improvements be achieved?
      A: The team is enhancing planning from field to finished goods, expecting improved inventory turnover over time.

    4. CapEx Guidance
      Q: What is the planned maintenance CapEx percentage?
      A: They are targeting around 3% of sales for base capital, with an additional 2% for modernization, to support asset upkeep while curbing spending.

    5. Tariff Risk
      Q: What is the tariff impact on results?
      A: Management estimated an exposure of about $25M if tariffs take effect, with steps underway to mitigate this risk through alternative ingredient blends.

    6. Non-Cash Comp
      Q: Why remove non-cash stock-based compensation expense?
      A: They removed this volatile, non-cash item to focus on operational performance and reduce earnings fluctuations, a common industry practice.

    7. Leverage & M&A
      Q: What are the leverage targets and M&A plans?
      A: The target remains near 3.5x leverage, and they remain open to M&A or joint ventures that support their strategic, global focus.

    8. Sales Outlook
      Q: How will the 53rd week affect sales?
      A: The extra week is expected to boost second-half volumes and help balance first-half pricing pressures.

    9. EBITDA Stability
      Q: When will cost headwinds ease for EBITDA?
      A: Anticipated improvements start in Q2 as field harvest begins and lower potato prices lift adjusted gross margins.

    10. Customer Momentum
      Q: Will customer wins continue to grow?
      A: Strengthened customer engagement and continuous contract wins are boosting momentum, blending carryover benefits with new opportunities.

    11. Sustainability Trends
      Q: Which positive trends might persist next year?
      A: Management cited robust volume growth and enhanced customer relationships as trends that could sustain future performance.

    12. Burger Channel Risk
      Q: Could GLP‑1 concerns hurt burger channel demand?
      A: They see no material impact; QSR channels still account for over 80% of fry servings, with menu importance remaining high.

    13. Geography Strategy
      Q: How will non-advantage geographies be managed?
      A: Though detailed plans are forthcoming, the review continues to assess regions like Europe to ensure focus on areas where they hold a competitive advantage.

    Research analysts covering Lamb Weston Holdings.