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    Macy's (M)

    M Q1 2026: Tariffs to Trim 20–40bps Margins; $101M Buyback Resumed

    Reported on May 29, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$12.04Last close (May 27, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$12.50Open (May 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.46(+3.82%)
    • Strategic Store Improvements: Management is cautiously optimistic about the transformation of the Reimagine 125 group, with better performance in March/April and improvements underway in May that suggest a potential turnaround in comps and future revenue growth.
    • Effective Pricing and Tariff Mitigation: Leadership is addressing tariff pressures through a selective pricing strategy—renegotiating vendor contracts and making surgical price adjustments across elastic categories to partially offset tariffs while preserving the customer value proposition.
    • Resilient Consumer Demand and Sales Recapture: The team is already seeing encouraging signs of sales recapture from store closures and robust consumer response to enhanced in-store experiences, positioning the retailer to capture market share amidst competitive pressures.
    • Consumer Demand Weakness: Several analysts noted that despite improving sentiment, the consumer remains under pressure with discretionary spending, which could weigh on future sales performance. [Index 11][Index 17]
    • Tariff-Related Margin Pressure: Concerns remain over the impact of tariffs—with a portion of higher tariff products flowing into Q2—which may force selective pricing adjustments and compress margins further. [Index 8][Index 2]
    • Uncertainty in Store Initiatives: The Reimagine 125 group continues to report negative comparable sales without a clear timeline to reverse the trend, raising doubts about the effectiveness of ongoing operational and strategic initiatives. [Index 10]
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Net Income

    Q1 2026: Turned positive at $38 million versus a loss of $70 million in Q4 2024

    The turnaround of over 200% is likely due to the elimination or reversal of prior one‐time charges and improved cost management, suggesting that structural or operational improvements implemented after Q4 2024 are beginning to positively impact bottom‐line performance.

    Operating Cash Flow

    Q1 2026: Negative $64 million compared to $1,147 million provided in Q4 2024

    The dramatic swing downward indicates that despite the improved net income, there were significant deteriorations in working capital management and other non-cash adjustments, which have adversely affected the actual cash generation from operations.

    Cash, Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash

    Q1 2026: Fell to $935 million from $1,310 million at the end of Q4 2025 (≈29% decline)

    The 29% decline in cash balances reflects the combined impact of the negative operating cash flow in Q1 2026 and potential outflows from investing or financing activities, which eroded the cash reserves that had built up in the previous period.

    Depreciation and Amortization Expenses

    Q1 2026: Reported at $219 million

    The recorded $219 million in D&A shows the material impact of prior capital investments now being expensed, which contributes to cash flow adjustments; this cost remains significant despite improvements in net income, thereby affecting overall operating cash dynamics.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Sales

    Q2 2026

    $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion

    $4.65 billion to $4.75 billion

    raised

    Macy's Inc. Comparable Sales

    Q2 2026

    Down 4.5% to down 2.5%

    Down 1.5% to up 0.5%

    raised

    Core Adjusted EBITDA

    Q2 2026

    6.4% to 6.6%

    6% to 6.2%

    lowered

    SG&A

    Q2 2026

    no prior guidance

    Dollars expected to be roughly flat to last year

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EPS

    Q2 2026

    $0.12 to $0.15

    $0.15 to $0.20

    raised

    Net Sales

    FY 2026

    $21 billion to $21.4 billion

    $21 billion to $21.4 billion

    no change

    Macy's Inc. Comparable Sales

    FY 2026

    Down 2% to down 0.5%

    Down roughly 2% to down roughly 0.5%

    no change

    Macy's Inc. Go-Forward Comps

    FY 2026

    Down roughly 2% to flat

    Down roughly 2% to flat

    no change

    Other Revenue

    FY 2026

    $835 million to $845 million, up roughly 75 bp

    $815 million to $825 million, including credit card revenues of $620 million to $630 million

    lowered

    Gross Margin

    FY 2026

    Expected to improve by 10 to 40 basis points

    Expected to be roughly 30 to 70 basis points below the comparable period; tariffs add 20–40 bp or $0.10 to $0.25 EPS

    lowered

    SG&A

    FY 2026

    Down low single digits on a dollar basis; 100 bp higher

    Down low single digits on a dollar basis; 80 to 110 bp higher

    no change

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2026

    8.4% to 8.6%

    7.4% to 7.9%

    lowered

    Core Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2026

    8% to 8.2%

    7% to 7.5%

    lowered

    Adjusted Diluted EPS

    FY 2026

    $2.05 to $2.25

    $1.60 to $2.00

    lowered

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2026

    Approximately $800 million

    Approximately $800 million

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Store Transformation & Closures

    Q4 2025, Q3 2025, and Q2 2025 emphasized the Bold New Chapter and First 50/Reimagined store initiatives, notable closure targets (e.g., 150 stores over multiple years) and asset sale gains.

    Q1 2026 focused on the Reimagine 125 initiative, improved comps in select stores, closure of 64 underperforming locations with asset monetization and efforts to recapture lost sales.

    Consistent strategic focus: Store transformation and targeted closures remain central. There is cautious optimism as improved performance in key locations now counters earlier broad closure concerns.

    Pricing Strategies & Tariff Mitigation

    Q4 2025 discussed a shift toward private label pricing and insulation from tariffs with a case‐by‐case approach, while Q3 and Q2 2025 contained little detail on pricing adjustments or tariff issues.

    Q1 2026 provided a detailed discussion on surgical price adjustments, selective price increases, vendor negotiations and actively reducing sourcing from China to mitigate tariffs.

    Heightened tactical focus: The current period shows a more granular approach to pricing and tariff mitigation, building on earlier strategies while addressing pricing challenges in a more proactive manner.

    Consumer Demand & Spending Trends

    Prior periods (Q4, Q3, Q2 2025) highlighted constrained consumer spending due to inflation and external pressures, along with a mix of promotional efforts and improved seasonal trends that provided cautious optimism.

    Q1 2026 noted that while consumers remain under pressure on discretionary spending, there is positive feedback to newness, improved presentation and strong performance in key categories like denim and fine jewelry.

    Persistent caution with selective strength: Consumer sentiment continues to be guarded, yet targeted initiatives (e.g. reimagined stores and category-specific improvements) are delivering modest headwinds and localized optimism.

    Inventory Management & Newness

    Earlier calls from Q4 2025, Q3 2025, and Q2 2025 discussed inventory challenges (e.g., higher inventory levels due to cost accounting shifts) balanced by improvements in newness and assortment quality.

    Q1 2026 emphasized a disciplined approach with lower year‐over‐year inventories (down 0.5%) and active management of newness through markdowns, vendor relationships and improved product flow across all nameplates.

    Continued discipline with enhanced newness: The focus on balancing inventory levels with a steady stream of new products remains strong. There is a progressive improvement in product quality and assortment composition compared to earlier periods.

    Macroeconomic Conditions & Inflationary Pressures

    Q4 2025, Q3 2025, and Q2 2025 repeatedly mentioned external pressures such as inflation, tariffs, high food and housing costs, and interest rate concerns that affect consumer behavior and margin performance.

    Q1 2026 acknowledged that despite easing factors like lower gas prices, ongoing consumer pressure remains due to rising non‐discretionary costs and uncertainty leading to demand pull-forward in areas like fine jewelry.

    Steady headwinds: Macroeconomic pressures continue to cast a cautiously pessimistic light over consumer behavior. The sentiment remains largely unchanged, demanding ongoing adaptive strategies to mitigate inflation and uncertainty.

    Luxury Segment Performance & Exclusive Partnerships

    In previous periods (Q4, Q3, and Q2 2025) the luxury segment was a focal point with mixed results—Q4 and Q3 showed strong comps and exclusive campaigns while Q2 noted slight declines counterbalanced by promising initiatives and immersive experiences.

    Q1 2026 reported robust performance, with Bloomingdale’s showing a 3.8% comparable sales increase, strong brand launches and Bluemercury posting 1.5% gains. Exclusive partnerships and special capsules were highlighted as drivers for market share expansion.

    Strengthening momentum: The luxury segment is gaining traction with increased focus on exclusive partnerships and brand launches. The improved performance suggests a positive turnaround relative to earlier mixed signals, potentially driving future high-margin growth.

    Margin Performance & Product Mix

    Q4 2025 emphasized margin pressure from cost accounting conversions and inventory composition issues, while Q3 2025 noted product mix challenges from discounting and clearance sell-through. Q2 2025, however, reported significant margin improvement driven by disciplined pricing and a better product mix.

    Q1 2026 delivered a mixed picture: overall gross margin is flat with improvements in merchandise margin (up 40 basis points) partially offset by higher digital delivery costs, alongside a product mix that is showing early signs of improved performance across key categories.

    Balanced evolution: Ongoing adjustments in product mix and pricing continue to drive modest margin improvements. There is a dichotomy whereby favorable trends in new initiatives are counterbalanced by tariff and cost pressures, reflecting continued operational challenges.

    Financial Stress & Credit Concerns

    Q4 2025, Q3 2025, and Q2 2025 provided insights into a stable credit portfolio with effective credit card revenue strategies and controlled net credit losses, highlighting initiatives to boost card usage and maintain strong underwriting.

    Q1 2026 did not explicitly mention financial stress or credit concerns, though there was indirect reference to strong credit performance through rising credit card revenue components.

    Reduced prominence: The omission of explicit discussion in Q1 2026 may suggest that financial stress and credit concerns have receded as a pressing issue, or become less newsworthy relative to other operational priorities.

    Home Business Dynamics

    Q4 2025 highlighted challenges due to interest rates, competitive pressures and the need for a home category refresh, while Q3 2025 and Q2 2025 mentioned initiatives such as private brand reinvention and improved holiday assortments to address weaknesses in the home category.

    Q1 2026 signaled improvement in big-ticket items and a strong performance in the mattress business at both Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s, indicating early signs of recovery in the home segment.

    Positive turnaround: There is a noticeable shift from earlier challenges to recovery signals in the home business, suggesting that strategic initiatives are beginning to generate tailwinds that could have a large future impact on this segment.

    1. Pricing Impact
      Q: Impact of tariffs on pricing?
      A: Management noted that pricing adjustments from higher tariff goods are entering slowly, with negotiations already yielding some vendor discounts; overall, tariffs are expected to pressure gross margins by about 20–40 basis points, and limited price increases have begun in Q2 [doc 8].

    2. Capital Allocation
      Q: Clarify share buyback outlook now?
      A: They resumed buybacks by returning $101 million to shareholders and emphasized no further buyback guidance, highlighting strong balance sheet confidence with remaining authorization of $1.3 billion [doc 18].

    3. Sales Guide
      Q: Confidence in constant annual sales guide?
      A: Management remains cautiously optimistic, noting stronger consumer performance in later months despite early Q1 challenges, so they are holding steady on the annual sales guidance amid ongoing pricing and promotional pressures [doc 6].

    4. Market Share
      Q: How will you capture market share?
      A: They are leveraging new product assortments, enhanced marketing, and improved in-store experiences across all banners to attract consumers and gain share in a competitive environment [doc 9].

    5. Store Performance
      Q: Can Reimagine 125 turn comps positive?
      A: Although these stores still face macro pressures, improved staffing, presentation, and localized marketing are helping them outperform the broader fleet, with potential for further gains as the year progresses [doc 10].

    6. Inventory & Competition
      Q: How is inventory planned amid tariffs and competition?
      A: The team is disciplined about inventory, avoiding excess purchases to mitigate tariff risks while staying agile to capitalize on growth opportunities in a dynamic competitive landscape [doc 12].

    7. Category Trends
      Q: Which categories drove comp performance?
      A: Positive comp growth was seen in areas such as denim, fine jewelry, and home furnishings, reflecting a diverse mix that allows management to pivot receipts and marketing effectively [doc 13].

    8. SG&A Adjustments
      Q: Any one-time SG&A items in Q1?
      A: Management stated there were no unusual adjustments in SG&A this quarter, and while store closures initially depressed sales, they are now seeing expected recovery in performance [doc 14].

    9. Beauty Business
      Q: How is the beauty category performing overall?
      A: Across Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, and Bluemercury, the beauty and fragrance segments remain robust, serving as key holiday destinations with strong full-service support [doc 15].

    10. Sequential Comps
      Q: Have May comps turned positive?
      A: Although specifics were not detailed, management indicated improved performance in May—especially in Reimagine stores—thanks to better execution and customer engagement [doc 11].

    11. Consumer Health
      Q: How is consumer health in Q1?
      A: Despite ongoing price pressures, the consumer is responding favorably to enhancements in product newness, value, and in-store service, suggesting gradual recovery in spending habits [doc 16].

    12. Price Adjustments
      Q: Which categories might see price hikes?
      A: Management is targeting select categories with more pricing elasticity for careful increases while ensuring that value remains evident, thus balancing competitive pricing across their diverse brands [doc 17].

    Research analysts covering Macy's.