Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Strong demand drivers such as job growth, population growth, and migration trends remain positive in MAA's markets, with 400,000 new jobs expected in 2024. Additionally, the cost of homeownership is 50–60% higher than rents, pushing more demand into multifamily rentals. Move-outs to buy a home are down 20% year-over-year.
- Supply pressures are expected to moderate, with peak new supply deliveries occurring now and easing by Q4. MAA anticipates new lease pricing to improve in Q2 and Q3, supported by stronger leasing traffic in the summer and normal seasonal patterns. Prior year comparisons become easier, further supporting improved performance.
- MAA sees attractive acquisition opportunities emerging later this year into 2025, as merchant builders struggle with lease-ups. Acquiring these properties provides a more attractive long-term investment return, especially on an after-CapEx basis, than share buybacks. The company is also investing in new technology initiatives that offer the opportunity for meaningful margin expansion over the next few years, creating significant value.
- MAA expects new lease pricing to remain negative until 2025, indicating prolonged pressure on rental rates due to high supply levels.
- Planned acquisitions are expected to be dilutive to Core FFO in 2024, and MAA is comfortable increasing leverage up to 4.5% to 5%, potentially increasing financial risk.
- High supply levels in key markets like Austin are expected to cause prolonged challenges due to oversupply, negatively impacting MAA's performance in these markets.
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Same-Store Revenue Guidance
Q: What affects high and low ends of revenue guidance?
A: Higher new lease rates due to strong demand could push us to the high end, while lower new lease rates might result in the low end. We assume blended rent growth of 1% for the full year, with renewals at 4.5% to 5% and new leases at around negative 3% to 3.25%. -
Lease Rate Growth Timing
Q: When will lease rate growth turn positive?
A: We expect new lease pricing likely won't turn positive until 2025. It may get close to flat in the middle of this year but typically turns negative in the back half. Improvement should start to appear in 2025 as supply pressures moderate. -
Impact of Supply on Rent
Q: What's the outlook for rents in weakest markets?
A: In markets like Austin, which face high supply, rent growth may struggle through 2024 and improve in 2025 as supply is absorbed. Strong job growth in these markets helps mitigate the impact. -
Acquisition Plans and Leverage
Q: How high can leverage go for acquisitions?
A: We're comfortable increasing leverage up to 4.5% to 5%, translating to a total buying power of roughly $1.5 billion for acquisitions if the right opportunities arise. -
Renewal vs New Rent Rates
Q: Why is there an 8% spread between renewal and new rents?
A: The gap, with renewals at 5% and new lease rates down 3%, is slightly wider than historical norms but consistent with seasonal patterns. Tenants value the cost and convenience of staying, and our customer service contributes to higher renewal rates. We expect the gap to narrow as new lease rates improve. -
Demand and Job Growth Assumptions
Q: What's driving demand in guidance?
A: Steady job growth, with an assumption of about 400,000 new jobs in our markets for 2024, along with migration trends and limited single-family home affordability, support demand. Early indications show job growth holding up well. -
Expense Pressures
Q: Which expenses are under pressure?
A: Uncontrollable expenses like real estate taxes are projected to grow 4.8%, and insurance is expected to increase by 15-16%. Controllable expenses are moderating, with repair and maintenance being the biggest driver among them. -
Potential for Share Buybacks
Q: Will you consider share buybacks?
A: While we focus on acquisitions and investment opportunities that support earnings growth and dividends, we have a buyback program authorized and wouldn't hesitate to use it if conditions warrant, especially if there's significant dislocation between public and private pricing. -
Development Starts and Yields
Q: What are expected yields on development starts?
A: We plan to start 3 to 4 developments this year, targeting stabilized yields in the mid-6% range. We're working to reduce construction costs and have seen 5-6% reductions on some projects, supporting our yield goals. -
January Effect on Rents
Q: Why did rents recover in January?
A: Post-holiday season, leasing traffic typically picks up as people are more willing to move. Additionally, developer lease-up aggressiveness eased after year-end, contributing to improved rental rates in January.
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