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Magnera Corp (MAGN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid inaugural quarter post-merger: revenue $702M, adjusted EBITDA $84M, and GAAP EPS $(1.69), with merger contributions and favorable price/cost spread offset by FX headwinds .
  • Management introduced FY25 guidance of comparable adjusted EBITDA $385–$405M and post‑merger adjusted free cash flow $75–$95M; focus is deleveraging (4.0x net leverage at quarter-end) and synergy capture .
  • Key drivers: $186M of revenue and $16M of adjusted EBITDA from the Glatfelter merger since Nov 4 close; price/cost +$6M; FX headwinds revenue −$14M and EBITDA −$4M .
  • Catalysts to watch: execution on $55M synergy plan, mix upgrades toward higher-value applications, and deleveraging toward ~3x; management emphasized ramp of synergies across 2025 and typical seasonal step-up after Q1 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Integration and synergy execution off to a “solid start,” with teams “on track to our three year plan to achieve $55 million of net synergies” and momentum building post day-1 stand-up .
  • Mix and price/cost favorable: adjusted EBITDA rose to $84M (up 8% YoY comparable) with price/cost spread +$6M; CFO noted adjusted EBITDA margin of ~12% (up 68 bps YoY) on flat volumes and improved mix .
  • Liquidity and deleveraging priority: quarter-end net debt $1.781B (4.0x), cash $215M, and post‑merger adjusted free cash flow of $16M for the quarter; management reiterated near-term debt paydown focus .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP profitability remains pressured: operating loss $(22)M and net loss $(60)M in the quarter (EPS $(1.69)) amid integration costs and higher interest expense .
  • FX headwinds and market softness: FX reduced revenue by $14M and adjusted EBITDA by $4M; management cited ongoing supply/demand challenges and geopolitical volatility .
  • Industry capacity overhang in personal care nonwovens; company is idling certain facilities to balance supply and focusing lines on higher-value applications .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L vs Prior Year and Estimates

MetricQ1 2024 (Dec 30, 2023)Q1 2025 (Dec 28, 2024)Vs. Estimates
Revenue ($USD Millions)$519 $702 N/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$(12) $(22) N/A
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(8) $(60) N/A
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.25) $(1.69) N/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$66 $84 N/A
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)N/A~12% N/A

Notes: Management attributes Q1 2025 drivers to merger contribution ($16M EBITDA), price/cost (+$6M), and FX headwinds (−$4M EBITDA) .

Segment Breakdown

SegmentNet Sales Q1 2024 ($M)Net Sales Q1 2025 ($M)Adjusted EBITDA Q1 2024 ($M)Adjusted EBITDA Q1 2025 ($M)
Americas$348 $420 $51 $56
Rest of World$171 $282 $15 $28
Total$519 $702 $66 $84

Additional Q1 context: Americas saw merger +$70M and improved price/mix; FX −$13M; RoW saw merger +$116M; adjusted EBITDA up with +$10M from merger and +$4M price/cost .

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Cash from Operating Activities ($M)$(27) $(58)
Capital Expenditures, net ($M)$(16) $(16)
Post‑merger Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)N/A$16
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$167 $215
Total Debt ($M)N/A$1,996
Net Debt ($M)N/A$1,781
Leverage (Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA)N/A4.0x

Estimate comparisons: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable at time of analysis; therefore, beats/misses vs estimates cannot be determined.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance (Q1 release)Change
Comparable Adjusted EBITDAFY2025N/A$385–$405M Introduced
Post‑merger Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY2025N/A$75–$95M Introduced
Comparable Adjusted EBITDA (Updated in Q2)FY2025$385–$405M $360–$380M Lowered
Post‑merger Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Updated in Q2)FY2025$75–$95M $75–$95M Maintained

Management reiterated near‑term deleveraging priority alongside guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Integration & SynergiesN/A (newco; merger closed 11/4/24)“On track” to $55M net synergies; accelerating capture to offset macro headwinds Building momentum
Price/Cost & MixN/AFavorable price/cost spread +$6M; mix shift to higher‑value categories Improving mix discipline
Supply/Demand (Nonwovens)N/APersonal care oversupply; idling capacity; expect tighter balance by 2027–2028 Overhang near-term; structurally improves over time
Regional DynamicsN/AU.S. most stable; Europe headwinds (inflation/energy); Asia highly competitive; S. America import pressure Mixed; Europe/Asia challenging
Deleveraging & LiquidityN/ALeverage 4.0x; quarter post‑merger FCF $16M; targeted ~3x over time Gradual improvement
SeasonalityN/AQ1 is seasonally softer in North America; sequential build expected Normalizing seasonality
Contracts & Raw MaterialsN/A~56% COGS raw materials; strong pass‑through mechanics; contract “openers” for broader costs Better pass‑through resilience

Management Commentary

  • “Our team is laser focused on the execution of our integration plan, delivering on our cost saving initiatives, improving our operating margins and meeting our deleveraging commitments” .
  • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $84 million with an improved adjusted EBITDA margin of 12%… driven by favorable price cost in both The Americas and Rest of World” .
  • “We will be disciplined in our actions to deliver long‑term shareholder value by prioritizing repayment of debt and reducing our leverage to approximately three times” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Bridging to FY25 EBITDA: Pro forma Q1 EBITDA would be ~$92M including October GLT month; ramping synergies required to reach ~$395M midpoint; also noted Q1 seasonality softness .
  • Free cash flow and deleveraging: Post‑merger adjusted FCF of ~$16M in the quarter; implies ~$70M incremental for remainder of FY25 at midpoint; GAAP cash flow includes pre‑merger noise .
  • Market capacity and portfolio mix: Addressing personal care oversupply by idling capacity and pivoting to differentiated, IP‑rich applications to fill lines with premium products .
  • Regional challenges: Asia <10% of revenue and very competitive; Europe facing inflation/consumer headwinds; U.S. most stable; imports pressuring South America .
  • Raw materials and contracts: ~75% of raw materials are polyolefins/fibers plus fluff pulp; improving pass‑through clauses for non‑raw inputs post‑COVID across staggered renewals .
  • Working capital: Modeling flat for FY25 given tailwinds from GLT terms and offsets at Berry legacy .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue, and FY25 EBITDA was unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs consensus. Management’s FY25 guidance is the primary benchmark: comparable adjusted EBITDA $385–$405M and post‑merger adjusted free cash flow $75–$95M at Q1 (later revised to $360–$380M EBITDA in Q2 while FCF was maintained) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Integration tracking to $55M net synergies with line‑of‑sight actions; execution here is the core EBITDA and deleveraging driver in FY25–FY27 .
  • Mix upgrade and price/cost discipline underpinned Q1 margin improvement despite flat volumes and FX headwinds; sustaining this is key while demand normalizes .
  • Personal care capacity overhang persists near‑term; Magnera is proactively idling and refilling with higher‑value SKUs—positioning for tighter industry balance by 2027–2028 .
  • Balance sheet: 4.0x leverage with a clear deleveraging path via $75–$95M post‑merger FCF in FY25; target ~3x as synergies ramp and capex normalizes .
  • Watch Europe energy/consumer headwinds and Asia competition; regional execution and localized supply chain advantages should help defend share/margins .
  • Guidance risk skewed to macro/tariffs and FX; management lowered FY25 EBITDA guidance early in Q2 while maintaining FCF—cash conversion discipline is the key stock narrative .
  • Trading setup: delivery against synergy milestones, sequential EBITDA lift post seasonally soft Q1, and visible deleveraging are likely catalysts for multiple support.