ManpowerGroup (MAN)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
ManpowerGroup Beats on EPS as Staffing Markets Stabilize, Shares Jump 10%
January 29, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN) delivered a solid beat in Q4 2025 as labor market stabilization drove better-than-expected results. The staffing giant reported adjusted EPS of $0.92, crushing estimates by 12%, while revenue of $4.71 billion topped expectations by 1.7% . Shares surged 10% in after-hours trading to $31.85.
The results cap a year of sequential improvement for the company, which has been navigating a challenging staffing environment marked by weak permanent recruitment in Europe and a prolonged normalization in IT staffing. CEO Jonas Prising struck an optimistic tone, calling 2026 "an important inflection point for the business, with a clear path toward sustainable organic revenue and margin growth" .
Did ManpowerGroup Beat Earnings?
Yes — double beat. ManpowerGroup exceeded expectations on both revenue and EPS:
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Key drivers of the beat:
- Cost discipline: SG&A declined 4% constant currency YoY, with additional restructuring taken in the quarter
- Stabilizing volumes: Organic constant currency revenue grew 2% as Manpower brand posted three consecutive quarters of growth
- Geographic mix: Strong performance in Italy (+6% CC) and Latin America (+16% CC) offset continued softness in Northern Europe
GAAP EPS included $0.28 of charges for restructuring ($0.23), pension settlements ($0.04), and Argentina hyperinflation currency translation ($0.01) .
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Did Management Guide?
Q1 2026 guidance is roughly in-line with consensus:
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
The guidance includes $0.06 of favorable currency impact . Management is guiding for continued sequential improvement, with EBITDA margin expected up 10 basis points YoY .
Tax headwinds to note:
- French corporate tax surcharge expected to continue into 2026
- Full-year global tax rate estimated at 45%
- US WOTC (Workers' Opportunity Tax Credit) not renewed for 2026 — if enacted retroactively, would reduce full-year rate to 43.5%-44%
Q1 timing note: Healthcare IT project volumes in Experis can be "lumpy" — Q1 won't have the strong volumes from Q1 2025, but management has "a very strong pipeline expected to benefit Q2 and Q3 of 2026" .
What Changed From Last Quarter?
The tone shifted notably more positive. After quarters of managing through decline, ManpowerGroup is now signaling an inflection:
CEO Prising noted: "Throughout 2025, we delivered sequential progress in both revenue and profitability, as adjusted, exiting the year with strengthening trends" .
The most significant change is in transformation execution — management highlighted moving from "AI use cases to scaled commercial impact":
- AI Recruiter Toolkit scaled to 12+ markets, improving recruiter precision and delivering a 7% increase in placement rates
- Agentic AI coding assistants through Experis in the US helping clients accelerate delivery and reduce costs
- Sophie AI — the company's proprietary AI ecosystem built on PowerSuite, providing real-time AI agents for workforce insights that are "10x faster than humans alone" with 99% accuracy
How Did Each Segment Perform?
Americas (24% of Revenue)
- United States ($682M, -1.5%): Manpower and Talent Solutions TAPFIN MSP continued to perform well, while Experis stabilized
- Other Americas ($452M, +16% CC): Latin America saw continued strong demand
Southern Europe (48% of Revenue)
- France ($1,171M, -3.4% CC): Sequential improvement from Q3's -6%
- Italy ($486M, +6.4% CC): Market-leading growth continues
- Other Southern Europe ($591M, +4.9% CC): Solid performance
Gross margin pressure came from "softer than expected permanent recruitment activity in Europe" .
Northern Europe (17% of Revenue)
The dramatic improvement from -$16.5M OUP in Q4 2024 reflects ongoing restructuring in the UK and cost actions .
APME (11% of Revenue)
Asia Pacific saw continued strong demand with organic constant currency growth of +6% . Japan, representing 58% of segment revenues, grew +7% days adjusted CC and has now posted 45 consecutive quarters of growth . Asia-Pacific broke an all-time profitability record in 2025 .
Additional Geographic Color from Q&A
Ask Fintool AI AgentHow Did the Stock React?
Shares jumped 10% after hours on the beat and stabilizing outlook:
The stock had been under significant pressure in 2025, falling from $63 to below $30 as investors worried about the staffing cycle. Today's results and management's confidence in an "inflection point" appear to be shifting sentiment.
Full Year 2025 Results
The annual numbers reflect a challenging year masked by Q4's sequential improvement:
Full year results included:
- $88.7M goodwill impairment related to Switzerland and UK investments
- $64.2M restructuring costs ($54.8M net of tax)
- $6.2M loss on sale of South Africa and New Caledonia businesses
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
ManpowerGroup strengthened its financial position during Q4:
Key actions in Q4:
- Refinanced €500M Euro Note (previously due June 2026) with new €500M notes due December 2030
- Reset revolving credit facility for new 5-year period
- Repurchased $38.2M in stock during 2025
- Paid $66.7M in dividends
The higher debt balance reflects the timing of refinancing — the old €500M notes were repaid with cash in January 2026 .
Key Management Quotes
On Q4 performance and outlook:
"We are pleased with our solid fourth quarter results, which reflect improving stabilization in market trends and continued execution of our go-to market and cost optimization strategy." — Jonas Prising, Chair & CEO
On 2026 expectations:
"Looking ahead, assuming current trends hold, we see opportunity to capitalize on improving market demand as we progress technology initiatives to diversify our capabilities and win market share. We will remain agile and continue to execute against our disciplined transformation to drive productivity gains and operating leverage." — Jonas Prising, Chair & CEO
On technology and AI:
Management highlighted "moving from AI use cases to scaled commercial impact," including "improving recruiter precision and productivity and scaling the use of agentic AI coding assistants delivered by Experis in the US" .
Q&A Highlights
On long-term margin targets (Mark Marcon, Baird):
"We're absolutely still committed to the 4.5%-5% mark... even in a modest recovery scenario, you should expect EBITDA margin improvement year-over-year over the next four years." — Jack McGinnis, CFO
Management confirmed that from the current 2.1% EBITDA margin, they see a path back to 4.5%-5% driven by:
- Structural cost efficiency from centralization and standardization
- Back office transformation benefits expected in H2 2026
- New front office transformation program in North America
On France monthly trends (Trevor Romeo, William Blair):
CFO Jack McGinnis provided granular France data showing four consecutive months of improvement :
On PowerSuite implementation progress:
"On the front office side, we're now 87% complete on PowerSuite front office revenues, global revenues running through. On the back office, we're at 75%. We just had Italy go live as we ended the year." — Jack McGinnis, CFO
On enterprise demand impact (Karthik Mehta, North Coast Research):
Management noted that enterprise clients are driving the lion's share of demand, which has impacted gross margin mix. However, "most of that has worked its way through" — staffing margin was stable Q3 to Q4 (down 40bps YoY in both quarters) . DSO increased to 55 days (from 52) due to longer enterprise payment terms .
On AI impact — blue vs white collar (Harold Antor, Jefferies):
"For blue-collar industrial manufacturing roles, they appear to be more resilient over the horizon where the disruption is happening more in the white-collar software developers and coders." — Becky Frankiewicz, President & Chief Strategy Officer
Management noted limited exposure to call center roles (an impacted area) and sees opportunities in AI-disrupted categories like coding assistants through Experis .
On labor market outlook (Ronan Kennedy, Barclays):
"I would say that the labor market is stabilizing, and we think the broader labor market, if you're referring to the US, is heading to stabilization." — Jonas Prising, CEO
Forward Catalysts
What to watch in coming quarters:
- France trajectory — Four consecutive months of improvement; management expects "ongoing progress" into Q1
- Permanent recruitment recovery — Gross margin pressured by perm weakness; "PERM will come back in the future" per CFO
- Experis stabilization — IT staffing still declining but management sees "pent-up project demand getting closer to being executed"
- Cost transformation — Back office benefits expected H2 2026; new front office transformation launching in North America
- Northern Europe profit — Region nearly at breakeven for first time in 5 quarters; swing to profit would boost margins
- Flexibility demand — "Candidates want more flexibility and clients want more flexibility... this is good for our business" per Becky Frankiewicz
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