Marriott International - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 results were resilient: adjusted EPS $2.65 and adjusted EBITDA $1.415B, with worldwide RevPAR +1.5% YoY; International RevPAR +5.3% and U.S. & Canada flat. Consensus EPS was modestly exceeded; pipeline reached a record ~3,900 properties and >590k rooms; net rooms +4.7% YoY.
• Gross fee revenues rose ~4% YoY to $1.4B; owned/leased net contribution was $113M, up from $99M; adjusted operating income margin held at 65%.
• Guidance narrowed: full-year RevPAR growth trimmed to 1.5%–2.5% from 1.5%–3.5% previously; FY adjusted EPS range revised to $9.85–$10.08 from $9.82–$10.19; Q3 RevPAR guided flat to +1%. Bold risks cited: weaker select-service demand, softer near-term group pace, government travel down.
• Capital returns: ~$2.1B YTD through July 30, plus a dividend of $0.67/share and a 25M-share buyback authorization increase post-quarter; FY capital return plan remains ≈$4B.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• International strength: “International RevPAR rose over 5 percent, with strong growth in APEC and EMEA” (APAC +9% RevPAR; Middle East +10%+).
• Development momentum: “Pipeline stood at a record of more than 590,000 rooms… conversions ~30% of room signings and openings”.
• Loyalty and platform expansion: Bonvoy reached ~248M members; launch of Series by Marriott and completion of citizenM acquisition broadens the offering and drives owner interest.

What Went Wrong

• U.S. & Canada softness: RevPAR flat; select-service and extended-stay RevPAR down ~1.5% YoY; government room nights down 16% YoY; business transient RevPAR down ~2% globally.
• Near-term group pace decelerated: fewer in-quarter bookings and elevated attrition vs expectations, with 3Q pacing down 2% and 4Q up 6% (calendar shifts noted).
• Higher interest expense: net interest expense rose vs prior-year driven by higher debt balances; total debt ended quarter at $15.7B, up from $14.4B YE24.

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good day and welcome to the Marriott International Q2 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, you have the opportunity to ask a question during the question and answer session. To register to ask a question, you may press the Star and one on your touchtone telephone at any time. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press Star two. Please note today's call may be recorded and it is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Jackie Burka McConagha, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning everyone and welcome to Marriott International's second quarter 2025 earnings call.

On the call with me today are Anthony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Development, and Pilar Fernandez, our Senior Director of Investor Relations. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filing which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR, occupancy, average daily rate, and property level revenues comments reflect system wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and all changes refer to year over year changes for the comparable period.

Statements in our comments in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website. Now I will turn the call over to Tony.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. Marriott reported strong second quarter financial results this morning ahead of our previous guidance. During a period of notable macroeconomic uncertainty, the company's pipeline reached a record level, and net rooms grew 4.7% since the end of the 2024 second quarter. Second quarter global RevPAR rose 1.5%. Our industry-leading portfolio continued to gain share, and our RevPAR index, which is already at a substantial premium to peers, rose again in the quarter. International RevPAR rose over 5%, led by growth in both APAC and EMEA. RevPAR in APAC rose 9%, driven by strong ADR growth and higher demand from international guests. Key markets like Japan and Australia saw double-digit RevPAR increases.

Second quarter RevPAR in EMEA rose 7% on solid increases in both ADR and occupancy, with strong transient demand from both in-country and cross-border guests, despite June being impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. Second quarter RevPAR rose over 10% in the Middle East and 4% in Europe, with its high reliance on U.S. travelers. Canada was impacted by weaker leisure and government-related demand, but strong ADR, especially at our luxury hotels, drove RevPAR up 3%. RevPAR in Greater China declined 0.5% year over year due to the weaker macro environment with lower business improved results, though our properties continued to gain market share. RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada region was flat year over year and grew nearly 1% when adjusting for the Easter shift.

RevPAR growth was again strongest at the high end, with luxury RevPAR up 4%, and it weakened going down the chain scales where results came in below our prior expectations. Second quarter U.S. and Canada select service and extended stay RevPAR declined around 1.5% year over year, primarily due to a decline in government demand, as two-thirds of government revenues are in the select service segment, as well as weaker demand from smaller business customers across chain scales. Group RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada was also softer than previously anticipated, primarily due to fewer near-term bookings and elevated attrition rates. Looking at RevPAR by customer segment, Leisure Transient grew the fastest this quarter, with Leisure Transient RevPAR rising 3% globally and 1% in the U.S. and Canada. Group RevPAR rose 2% globally and 1% in the U.S. and Canada.

Second quarter Business Transient RevPAR declined 2% globally and in the U.S. and Canada in part because of a shift in Easter timing. With ongoing economic uncertainty, we now estimate full-year RevPAR growth to be in the lower end of our prior range and increase between 1.5% and 2.5% over last year. Leeny will share more details on our outlook during her remarks. We still expect strong net rooms growth in 2025 and beyond as owners continue to show preference for our brands even with higher construction costs and the challenging financing environment. In the U.S. and Europe, second quarter deal signings rose 35% with every region signing more projects than in the same quarter last year. As a result, our pipeline grew to a record of over 590,000 rooms at the end of the quarter with 40% of those pipeline rooms under construction.

Conversions remain a significant driver of growth, representing nearly 30% of both room signings and openings during the first half of the year. As we continue to focus on being in more places with the best brands and experiences, we are making excellent development progress across all of our chain scales with their highly efficient operating models and strong value propositions. Our existing midscale brands City Express by Marriott, Four Points, Flex, and StudioRes are attracting significant interest from owners. At the end of the second quarter, we had around 200 open midscale hotels with another nearly 200 in the pipeline. In May, we announced the global launch of our latest collection brand in the midscale to upscale segment, Series by Marriott.

We created Series by Marriott to bring established quality regional hotels into our portfolio and to further our reach among value-conscious travelers, provide additional choice for our existing Marriott Bonvoy members and guests, and offer more affiliation opportunities and growth for local owners. In conjunction with the launch, we announced a founding deal to affiliate the FERN portfolio, which has over 100 open and pipeline hotels across India. With Series by Marriott, we also recently closed on the acquisition of the innovative tech-forward lifestyle brand CitizenM. We see meaningful opportunity for global growth for both of these recent brand additions. At the upper end of the chain scale, we continue to expand our leading global luxury portfolio where our distribution of nearly 168,000 rooms across 670 open luxury properties is currently over 40% larger than our next closest competitor.

This year we plan to open an additional 27 luxury properties and we have an additional 270 projects in the pipeline as we look to provide new opportunities to deliver bespoke experiences in iconic destinations. Recent notable highlights include the openings of the all-inclusive W Punta Cana and the JW Marriott Creek Resort and Spa. Last month we celebrated the inaugural voyage of Luminara, the third addition to the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection. Delivering exceptional guest experiences helps fuel the growth of our powerful global loyalty program. With an acceleration in enrollments, our Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program grew to nearly 248 million members. At the end of June, Marriott Bonvoy member penetration rose again, reaching a record of 69% of rooms globally and 74% in the U.S. and Canada.

In June, we announced the introduction of the Marriott Media Network, a media network that will help brands connect more meaningfully with guests across their travel journey. Leveraging our leading scale and Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program, Marriott Media Network will allow advertisers to use our deep insights into traveler behavior and preferences to reach high-value audiences through curated touchpoints like the Marriott Bonvoy app and in-room televisions. Everyone has likely seen the news that Leeny will be retiring from Marriott International in March of next year. As you all know, Leeny is an incredible leader with an unwavering commitment to excellence and the creation of shareholder value. It has been an absolute privilege to work with her and I am one of the many, many people who will miss her greatly when she retires next year.

Leeny will remain the company's CFO through the filing of this year's 10-K in early 2026. I am pleased that upon her retirement, two longtime veterans will succeed Leeny. Jen Mason, our current Global Officer, Treasurer and Risk Management, will become our CFO, and Sean Hill, currently the Head of Development of APAC, will become our Global Head of Development. I'll now turn the call over to Leeny.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Tony, and thank you for your kind words. This was a hard decision and very bittersweet. As it's never easy to leave a company and job that you love, I have the utmost confidence in Jen and Sean and look forward to working with them on a smooth transition. As Tony noted, I'm not leaving anytime soon. Now let's talk about our financial results and outlook. Second quarter global RevPAR increased 1.5%, driven by nearly 2% ADR growth, offsetting a 30 basis point decline in occupancy, largely reflecting declines in U.S. and Canada select service hotels. Average daily rate has held up well in most regions, demonstrating excellent revenue management across our system despite short booking windows. Second quarter total gross fee revenues increased 4% year over year to $1.4 billion.

The increase reflects rooms growth and higher RevPAR and co-branded credit card fees, partially offset by an $8 million decline in residential branding fees related to the timing of unit sales. Incentive management fees, or IMFs, rose 3% to $200 million in the second quarter, with roughly two-thirds earned by international hotels. Higher IMFs in all international regions were partially offset by declines in the U.S. and Canada, primarily due to some large hotels undergoing renovations. Owned, leased, and other revenue, net of expenses, was ahead of expectations and rose 14% compared to the prior year, largely driven by contributions from the Sheraton Grand Chicago, improved performance at other hotels in the portfolio, and favorable currency impact. Second quarter G&A declined 1% year over year, primarily due to lower compensation costs.

As we continue to benefit from the work we did last year across the enterprise to enhance our efficiency and productivity, our adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $1.42 billion. Now let me talk about our third quarter and full year 2025 outlooks. With ongoing economic uncertainty, we expect global RevPAR to be flat to up 1% in the third quarter and up 1.5% to 2.5% for the full year. Our full year RevPAR growth is still expected to be meaningfully stronger internationally than in the U.S. and Canada, even with Greater China RevPAR still anticipated to be around flat compared to last year. The luxury and full service segments, where we are extremely well positioned, accounting for over half of our open global rooms, are expected to continue to nicely outperform lower end chain scales globally.

Fourth quarter RevPAR growth is anticipated to accelerate from the third quarter, in part due to holiday shifts and the timing of certain large events. Examples include the positive impact of the Paris Olympics and the Euro Cup in the 2024 third quarter, the positive impact of the Republican and Democratic conventions in the 2024 third quarter, and then the negative impact of the U.S. presidential election in the 2024 fourth quarter. Plus, Act 1 in Singapore is shifting from the third quarter last year to the fourth quarter of this year at the end of June. On a global basis, revenues for group, the customer segment where we had the most visibility, were pacing down 2% for the third quarter and pacing up 6% for the fourth quarter.

Reflecting some of these calendar impacts, full-year 2025 group revenues were pacing up 3%, below the pace we saw a quarter ago, primarily due to fewer near-term bookings. However, group bookings for future periods have strengthened, with group revenues for 2026 pacing up 8% in the U.S. and Canada and globally, up from 7% a quarter ago. On a global basis for the full year, we now expect leisure transient and group RevPAR to grow in the low single digit range. Business transient RevPAR is now expected to be around flat year over year, with government demand expected to remain weak. Government room nights in the U.S. and Canada were down 16% year over year in the second quarter, more than in March, but do appear to have stabilized around these levels.

Turning to the P&L, in the third quarter, gross fee growth could be in the 2% to 3% range. Third quarter growth will be impacted by the timing of residential branding fees, which are expected to be down significantly year over year. IMFs are expected to see declines around 15% in the third quarter, largely reflecting tougher year over year RevPAR comps, continued renovations at some large properties in the U.S. and Canada region, and the receipt of business interruption insurance proceeds at certain Florida hotels in the last year. Third and fourth quarter IMFs are expected to increase in the mid to high single digit range, partly due to easier comps as a result of hurricanes impacting some Florida hotels last year as well as improved performance at renovating hotels. Full year IMFs are anticipated to be flattish to slightly down year over year.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 5% to 7% for the full year with a reduction in the upper end of our RevPAR range. We now expect gross fees of $5.37 to $5.42 billion, up 4% to 5% year over year for the full year. Co-branded credit card fee growth is still expected to be a couple hundred basis points lower than the nearly 10% growth in 2024, and timeshare fees are still expected to be around $110 million with a shift in the expected timing of sales for certain properties. Full year residential branding fees are now anticipated to decline around 30%. Owned, lease, and other revenue net of expenses is now expected to total $360 to $370 million, primarily reflecting the flow through of second quarter results. 2025 G&A expense is still anticipated to decline 8% to 10% to $965 to $985 million.

This decline reflects the expected $80 to $90 million of above property savings from our enterprise-wide initiative to enhance our effectiveness and efficiency across the company. That is also expected to yield cost savings to our owners. Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 7% and 8% to $5.3 to $5.4 billion. Full year adjusted diluted EPS could total $9.85 to $10.08. Our full year adjusted effective tax rate is still expected to be roughly 1 percentage point higher than a year ago, given a shift in earnings to higher tax rate jurisdiction. Our underlying full year core cash tax rate is still anticipated to be in the low 20% range. Let me also share some sensitivities to help with modeling. The sensitivity of a 1% change in full year 2025 U.S. RevPAR vs 2024 could be around $35 to $40 million of total RevPAR related fees.

The impact of a 1% change in full year 2025 global RevPAR vs 2024, assuming equal changes across all hotels around the world, could be $50 to $60 million. Our 2025 net rooms growth is still anticipated to approach 5%. As we look ahead with our strong momentum in global signings, we still expect long-term global net rooms growth in the mid-single digit range. Total investment spending is still expected to be $1.36 billion to $1.1 billion, excluding $355 million for the CitizenM transaction. Our capital allocation philosophy remains the same. We're committed to our investment grade rating, investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value, and then returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend, which has risen meaningfully over time, and share repurchases. We're pleased with the company's strong year-to-date cash flow performance and outlook.

Given strong cash flow generation, we still expect full-year capital returns to shareholders to be around $4 billion while maintaining our leverage at the lower part of our net debt to EBITDA range of 3 to 3.5 times. Before ending our prepared remarks, Tony and I want to express our gratitude to our incredible team of associates around the world for their continued hard work and dedication. The operator can now open the lines for questions. Please ask just one question each so we can speak with as many of you as possible. Thank you, thank you. As a reminder, at this time if you would like to ask a question, it is the star and one on your touch tone telephone. If you find your question has been answered, you may remove yourself by pressing star two. Again, as a reminder, it is just one question per line.

We'll go first to the line of, I'm sorry, Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, thanks Leeny. I know you still have time, but congratulations and thanks for all of your consistent insight and support.

Speaker 0

Thank you, Steven. I think we've talked about this.

Speaker 1

In the past, but maybe this is a big picture question, but given all the advances in technology, particularly around AI, where are we in the technology transformation project as it relates to timing and spending, and what are some of the major changes both owners and travelers can expect to see over the next few years? Thank you, Stephen, for the question. As you know, we are in the midst of a multi-year transformation of our three main systems: Loyalty, Reservations, and PMS. We expect to start deploying the new cloud-based central reservations and PMS in the U.S. and Canada select service hotels later this year. The strategy is intended to do a few things. It is intended to meaningfully enhance the ease with which our associates are trained on those platforms, in turn enhancing our competitiveness, particularly for next-generation future associates.

It should make the experience for our guests, both on property and when they're engaging with our customer engagement centers, much more seamless, much more efficient, and from an owner perspective, it should drive both some opportunities to improve the efficiency of our operations, but maybe even more compelling, the ability to better merchandise and sell the full range of products and services that we want to make available to our guests, ideally representing some revenue upside for the owners. Pivoting to AI, I think I talked about this last quarter. We have stood up a Marriott AI incubator that is working on a variety of proof of concepts. Some of those early proof of concepts were in areas like reimagining the concierge function, where we think there's a real opportunity to take advantage.

We're also looking at pilots in our customer engagement centers to help those agents navigate such a broad and diverse portfolio. As you may know, we've incorporated AI into the Marriott Homes and Villas platform, and while it's early, the early reaction of our guests has been terrific. We've also launched an ambassador trip planning tool that is fueled by AI. Lots of work is going on in the AI space, but again, all of it's focused on, number one, serving each of the constituents that we serve every day, and number two, creating capacities for our associates to better engage guests.

Speaker 0

Stephen, just on your question about the funding of the project for the tech transformation, the heaviest spend levels are really 2024, 2025, and 2026. As you know, there will be several hundred million that will go on to Marriott International's balance sheet and be paid off over time. The delta is not huge, kind of compared to normal, but probably is. Call it $100 million and more than you might typically expect on the tech spend side for those years. Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, good morning everyone.

Speaker 1

Leeny, I'll pass along my sentiments as well. You'll be sorely missed when we get to that moment. I think we have another quarter or two together. Appreciate all you've done.

Speaker 0

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Sean, you can share those sentiments. The next two quarterly. It's just going to be a really long farewell. Tony, where I wanted to go with my question was actually some of the implications on the one big beautiful bill. Obviously, some certainty here for the broader investment community.

Speaker 0

The way people think about it, if you could put your development hat on for us for a second, given some of the expensing features in that legislation, I'm curious on whether or not you.

Speaker 1

Think this can drive some renovation capital of the space. You know, possibly some more.

Speaker 0

Development or optimism on that side. Leeny, for you, anything on the Marriott corporate side in terms of interest, deduction, accelerated depreciation or.

Speaker 1

Anything that would matter for Marriott International corporate. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Yeah, thank you, Sean.

Speaker 1

Maybe I'll talk macro and Leeny can be a little more granular. In some ways, the best thing about the big beautiful bill is it's done right. The level of uncertainty both among consumers and among our owners and franchisees improves meaningfully with the signature on that bill. Most of our owners, we've talked about this in the past, are long term investors in the sector. They don't tend to jump in and out based on the ups and downs of what's going on in Washington. I do think the stability that comes from no more talk about it and the implementation of the various components of that bill are a net positive for us. With that said, the factors that our owners consider as they think about putting shovels in the ground are all around yields.

To the extent that there remains uncertainty around tariffs, that will give them some measure of pause. They're long term investors. We've seen a bit of an uptick in construction starts, certainly not to where we'd like to see it in a pre-pandemic world. We continue to see really strong and accelerating traction on the conversion front. You heard in my prepared remarks, in just a quarter we've seen our global pipeline of midscale double from 100 projects a quarter ago to 200 at the end of Q2. Leeny, I don't know if you want to add any color there.

Speaker 0

Yeah. Let's talk for a minute about the broader picture that you're asking about, Shaun. Clearly, as it relates to certain kind of depreciation factors, et cetera, that is one element that can be encouraging. I think it's, again, a broader picture about economic stability, about interest rates, about kind of where the transaction market is and bid-ask spreads, et cetera. I do think that with, as Tony said, the bill passing and hopefully a more concrete view about where tariffs are going to end up, we've got the possibility that the transaction market starts to open up some more. That is certainly helpful as we think about having some assets that are finishing fantastic renovations in and we would like to recycle that capital. From that standpoint, we're looking forward to opportunities on that front. Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Dan Pulitzer with JPMorgan.

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning everyone. And Leeny, thanks for everything. I'm glad we'll have you for a bit longer though to help us out. I wanted to zoom in on the group business a bit. It seems like it's been choppier near term. You mentioned 2026 is actually tracking a little bit better than even last quarter. Can you maybe unpack that a little bit in terms of what you're seeing in terms of lead volumes versus some of the deferrals? Possibly. Is it an actual change in the type of customer or booking that you're seeing or what exactly is going on there? Sure, I'll give it a try. As you rightly point out, a quarter ago when we gave you visibility into group pace for 2026, we were tracking up 7%. That's ticked up 100 basis points. We're now tracking at up 8%.

Not a meaningful shift in distribution across the various sources of group. As you know, we get 45% of all group comes from corporate. That seems to be staying pretty consistent. About a quarter comes from association. That is remaining fairly consistent as well. We are not seeing any sort of above normal volume of cancellations in the group segment. I think in our prepared remarks we may have mentioned a little uptick in attrition here in Q2 and into the back half of 2025, but again those HEES numbers for 2026 are really encouraging. The other thing I would say, we talked in response to one of the earlier questions about some of the fluidity in the macro environment.

That's really, I think, been the driver in a little drop in the year for the year bookings, certainly in Q2 of this year and an expectation for the back half of the year.

Speaker 0

To follow up, when you think about how much of the drop in Q2 grew relative to our expectations a quarter ago, not quite half was from attrition and the rest was from weaker in the quarter for the quarter bookings. It was kind of a fairly even mix of the two. As Tony Capuano said, I think some real uncertainty remains around the state of play in the economy. The other thing it's worth noting is that with a number of both holidays and event shifting, that's also partly what you're seeing in the group outlook for Q3 and Q4 being different between those two quarters. Thank you, and we'll go next to Conor Cunningham. Please go ahead. Hi everyone.

Speaker 1

Thank you and congrats Leeny on the retirement. I also look forward to getting some more insights over the next couple of quarters, but I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the Marriott Media Network opportunity. I realize it's still very, very new, but other travel companies talk up this opportunity on media and ads as just a significant driver of profits and whatnot. I'm just trying to understand the potential opportunity set ahead. Is it on the level of like a co-branded credit card contribution at full maturation, and maybe you could just talk about how you view it. Is it people, is it companies that are coming into the Marriott ecosystem, or is it an ad-based type platform? Any thoughts would be helpful. Thank you. Yeah, Conor, happy to talk about it.

I was with Peggy Roe and her team at Cannes Lions earlier this summer where we did our official launch. Certainly, if the early interest that we saw from prospective advertisers is any indication, I think we ought to be really optimistic about the future of the network. It's really, fundamentally, Conor, a network that helps brands connect with audiences throughout the guest journey. It allows us to take both the deep insights we have into travelers and their preferences and then provide that guidance and access for those advertisers across our digital platforms and our physical environments in our guest rooms to try and offer really bespoke campaigns that appeal to traveler interests. It's really too early to give you a sense of what the economics might look like.

We're in very early days, but again, the level of interest I think has exceeded our expectations and it gives us a lot of optimism about the future of the network.

Speaker 0

The only thing I would add to that is we do expect to be sharing the returns with our owners as well. I think it's one of these great examples of complementary adjacent businesses that help our overall power of Bonvoy, but also help the P&L of both the company and our owners. Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Richard Clark with Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Thanks, Leeny. Been a pleasure working with you the last few years. I guess I just want to ask a question on the branded residential fees. It seems to be coming up every quarter as a piece of volatility and I guess investors in hotel stocks don't like volatility very much. Just your commitment to the branded residential business and how you're feeling about the long term outlook in continuing to pursue that opportunity.

Speaker 0

Sure. Thank you very much for the question. I will kind of double down, emphasize our excitement about this business. We are the clear leader in the branded residential business across a number of our brands around the world, and we are thrilled with what we see in terms of continued openings, continued strength of the prices that these units are selling for, which then feeds into branding fees for us. It's worth mentioning that we also do get management fees from these, which are in our base management fees. They are obviously a smaller amount, and they do not have the same volatility associated with them. As an example, last year was $80 million. While I hear your point about investors not liking the volatility of them, it's still not a huge part of our overall fee stream.

This year, we now expect them to, just from a timing perspective, to be more like 30% down. That's actually better than it was a quarter ago when we had talked about them being down close to 50%, and again, in the big scheme of things, not such a huge impact on earnings, but they are high return on investment fees and typically also associated with a hotel next door and provide tremendous value to those hotels as well. We are huge fans of our residential business, and I would be remiss not to thank that team for the extraordinary work that they do in delivering these results.

Speaker 1

Richard, the only other color commentary I would add, I talked both in my prepared remarks and in response to an earlier question about the continued strength we see in luxury. I think the impact that our branded residential business has on the perception of those brands, on the confidence in the quality and service delivery in those brands. Residential is a meaningful contributor to that growing lead that we enjoy in the most valuable tier.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning everybody. I want to extend a heartfelt congratulations to Leeny. You'll definitely be missed. I wanted to ask about business transient trends, obviously down in the quarter and low visibility within this business. Maybe if you could break out non-government business transient and just give us a sense on what you sort of baked into your assumptions going into the third and fourth quarter within guidance. What are you hearing, Tony, from the larger corporates especially that we know you have good relations with and what they're thinking? Yeah, maybe I'll start with the government piece just to ground you and remind you that last year, in full year 2024, about 3% of global room nights and about 4% of U.S. and Canada room nights were U.S. government workers. That's federal, state, local. We've done our best to try to estimate government adjacent room nights as well.

In the U.S. and Canada, we would guess that would be about another 1%. It sort of scales by chain scale, meaning if you go to the select service scale, about 6% of room nights come from government, about 3% in full service and about 2% in the luxury tier, which maybe speaks a little bit to some of the trends that we've seen. Talking more broadly about business transient, most of the corporates that we work with are to a certain extent, I would characterize them as back to normal. A lot of the travel restrictions they had coming out of the pandemic are largely gone. You're seeing more and more return to the office, either voluntary or mandated. I think that's having some impact on business transient volume as well.

The volatility and the uncertainty that both Leeny and I talked about in our prepared remarks appears to be the biggest contributor to the bit of softness we saw in the quarter.

Speaker 0

Brad, to break out your specific question about the impact without the government globally, business transient RevPAR was down 1% if you exclude the government, because government training RevPAR was down 17% in the quarter. That's a bit more than it was in March of 2025, but it does appear to be steadying out. I think if you unpack that a bit, you continue to see that BT, apart from government, is experiencing this lower growth that fits what's going on with global economic activity, which is clearly lower than what was expected at the beginning of the year, but also not falling dramatically. Thank you. We'll go next to Robin Farley with UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Great, thank you. I want to echo everyone's sentiments about Leeny as well. My question is on the pipeline and rooms under construction.

Obviously, the development environment's different than it's been historically. It looks like about 40% of your pipeline's under construction, and without the change in how you count conversions, that would be somewhere in the 30% range. If we think about how that was close to 50% pre-pandemic or what the old normal was, can you help us think about what conversions as a percent of openings needs to grow to next year to hit that same kind of mid-single-digit range in unit growth? Just what the conversions and the percent would have to grow to in order to offset maybe what's not being newly built. Thank you. Robin, I think the best way to talk about this is the reality that conversions have been, call it, 30% or even a little bit over, often a percentage of our signings for several years now.

It's not as comparable to the specific of the pipeline in 2019 because you've now seen some rolling years of these higher percentages of conversions that stay in your pipeline for, in general, a shorter period of time. We would expect to continue to see over the next few years that we would have, call it, roughly a third of rooms opening that are conversion rooms, and that includes adaptive reuse in Greater China, which are a mix of new construction and conversion rooms, and continue to see this strong amount of signings being in the conversion space. As we look at a pipeline that is over 5% higher than a year ago, with this heightened element of several years of conversions, we're confident that we're building the track record for this mid-single-digit net rooms growth.

Speaker 1

Over the next several years. Robin, the only thing, I'd add two things to that. I think I mentioned this in my prepared remarks. We're just getting started in the midscale tier where we think there is tremendous opportunity. As I mentioned, the number of midscale deals in the pipeline globally doubled just from a quarter ago, and with the introduction of something like Series by Marriott, that really enhances an effort that we've talked about the last few quarters around portfolio conversions, which is really encouraging to us.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning. As you think about the expected improvement from third quarter to fourth quarter, just a couple assumptions I wanted to check with you. Is this primarily a domestic pickup, or are there other regions of the world where you also expect sequential improvement? Relatedly, by segment, it sounds from your commentary clearly the group pace is higher. Is that the biggest sequential driver? I mean, our sense is BT is actually improving, business travel is improving, we're in a peak leisure period now, so it's a little bit hard to measure. How are you thinking about pickup for BT specifically into the fall?

Speaker 0

I think you make a couple good points. Let me first talk about your broad question about Q4 over Q3, which is again the items clearly that we mentioned clearly pointed out in the U.S., but you've also got things like easier to compare in China as you move through the year and that becomes even more heightened as you get to Q4, which obviously at close to 10% of our systems is a nice help as you look at the overall pickup. Obviously you pointed out the group difference. I would also agree with you that just from a BT standpoint that it is a generally heavier period of BT travel and with some of the resolution of things like either the bill or continued progress about tariffs, and potentially interest rates, that there is a bit more of an open view about where the economy is going.

We are not assuming a fundamental shift in business transient but more seasonality impacts as you pointed out. From a general level of economic activity, we are assuming pretty much steady as she goes and not some sort of big pickup in the economy that is different than what we're generally seeing overall.

Speaker 1

Duane, the only thing I would add, we talk about, one, the trends are encouraging, two, we've got a little longer term visibility than we have on the transient side. Just to remind you, in the quarter, the global average booking window for transient was only 20 days and for BT it was only 16 days. I think your observations are spot on. We just don't have as much visibility into transient as we do include.

Speaker 0

That's a great point. Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Smedes Rose with Citi. Please go ahead. Hi.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Leeny. I know it's a long goodbye, but we'll definitely miss you.

Speaker 0

Thank you.

Speaker 1

I wanted to just follow up on the group a little bit because it sounds like maybe the pace has stalled a little bit through the balance of this year. You and other companies are talking about picking up into next year. I'm just wondering, at this point of the year, how much confidence do you have that that pace can continue? It doesn't really feel like, I mean, you said sort of constant economic growth, but it feels like, I don't know, there just seems to be much more uncertainty, I guess on a lot of levels, despite maybe some tax certainty and thinking. I guess I was just wondering how confident do you feel in that that pace can continue? Do you think people are just holding space and they might just cancel later? Yeah, it's a good question, Sneed.

As I said, while it's a little early, I might have a different answer for you if the weakness we saw in the back half of this year was the result of wholesale cancellations. The fact that the contracts are holding pretty firm and really, as you heard from Leeny, it's a matter of some attrition, likely related to some of the macro uncertainty, coupled with the fact that we're up 100 basis points since a quarter ago on definites on the books for 2026, does give us a measure of confidence about the continued strength in the group segment.

Speaker 0

The other thing I'd point out, which is a smaller fact but just interesting, is that the food and beverage component of this group business has not been bad. I mean, F&B's been up 4% and generally been sturdy. Sometimes what you see is everybody scales back down to the bare nub on the group meeting that they're having. What we're seeing is that it has continued to be robust. Clearly, I would say there is more uncertainty about the near term in-the-year, for-the-year bookings in 2025 than we thought a quarter ago. I will say for the group that continues to roll through, the quality of it is excellent.

Speaker 1

Maybe just to build on Leeny's point, we've talked a lot on this call about luxury. Those numbers in food and beverage spend are even more compelling in the luxury tier. In the quarter globally, luxury F&B spend was up 6% and up 7% in the U.S. and Canada. If you just look at food and beverage spend for meetings and events, it was up 9% globally and 10% in the U.S. and Canada within the luxury tier.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll go next to the line of David Katz with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question, Leeny. Thanks is probably not enough, but I'd rather spend the next two quarters trying to talk you out of it. I can. You and me both.

Speaker 0

Thank you, David.

Speaker 1

You're welcome. I think we've covered a lot on sort of the cadence of quarters, and I'd rather talk a little big picture, with the discussion about residential and some of the affiliation deals that we've seen. Leeny, you hosted a bunch of us on a tour of a yacht not too long ago. Can we talk about those other channels and what could be for Marriott International longer term? The follow up to it obviously is thinking about the economic intensity of those other channels and how attractive they may or may not be relative to the core business that you've grown so far. Thanks. Yeah, David, thank you for the question. Maybe I'll talk a little strategically and then let Leeny chime in. You and I talked about this maybe last time we were together in person in New York.

Broadly, as demonstrated by some of the recent deals we've done, our strategy continues to be on this focus of keeping our loyal guests within the Marriott ecosystem. It is not adding brands for the sake of adding brands. It's not adding things like Homes and Villas, Outdoor Collection, Ritz-Carlton Yacht, simply to have stuff to talk about on the earnings call. It's about really listening to our guests across every tier, understanding how their preferences and how they travel continues to evolve, and filling in gaps in or making additions to our core lodging business in a way where irrespective of trip purpose, irrespective of destination, we have a platform that allows them to satisfy all their travel needs within that Marriott Bonvoy ecosystem without ever looking outside.

Speaker 0

On the economic model, David, I'd point to a couple things. Let's first talk about the ever-widening range of travel opportunities with Marriott. I would say what you're seeing, for example, with the Fern announcement that we talked about is classic franchise economics. MGM, to be fair, while it is essentially franchise economics, is a different structured sort of contract given that we are largely sharing two incredibly powerful brands. When you think about some of these other multi-unit deals we are doing, they do fall much more in the classic franchise super high-ROIC economic models. When you think about broadening it to things like co-branded credit cards, there you again are seeing a very high return adjacency that actually extends beyond just earning on travel expenses but on the ability for people to be buying gas, and we ultimately earn brand fees.

Tony talked about the Marriott Media Network with the opportunity to expand our adjacency to be able to help link customers to great experiences and great products in a way that economically advantages both Marriott and owners without, frankly, a tremendous amount of investment. I think the opportunities are terrific as we look longer term, and I think we all believe we're just beginning. Thank you. We'll go next to Steve Bizzella with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Good morning and thank you for taking our question. Also wanted to echo the comments to you, Leeny, just wanted to follow up on conversions if we could. Can you talk about what you're seeing in the current environment both domestically and internationally, from a competitive standpoint, including how much key money is being used? In addition, what do you view as the addressable market for conversions and.

Speaker 1

Licensing agreements, including some of the more.

Speaker 0

Bulkier, say, 500 to 1,000 plus room deals? I didn't share the last part of the question, but I'll start in terms of kind of what we're seeing broadly. Just as a reminder, globally about half the hotels in the world are branded. Obviously, that's dramatically higher in the U.S. and dramatically lower outside the U.S., so we see just extraordinary opportunities for conversions extending as far as you can see into the future, particularly with the layout of soft brands that we have. When you think about Luxury Collection, Series by Marriott, Autograph, Tribute, etc. Then you've also got, just from a standpoint of the ability to make that work economically, in many cases, you've got hotel owners who are evaluating taking an existing hotel.

Rather than building a whole new one, it's a question of how much do they need to reinvest in it to make it fit one of these conversion brands. Also, with the affiliation, cost efficiency we've been able to drive. In that case, you see just really great returns for the owner for being able to put a little bit of money into their hotel and then not having to pay too much to affiliate with one of our brands. We see great possibilities on the conversion front on the use of key money. Frankly, it's the same as we've talked about before. There's really not a substantial difference this year relative to what is required. Is it extremely competitive? Absolutely. Key money is part of that. The terms of the contracts and the way that the investment is required as well are also factors.

We do see a bit more key money in the lower chain scales than we saw, for example, in 2019. When you think about it, broadly speaking, this year over last, it hasn't changed dramatically.

Speaker 1

Just to remind you, we may have talked about this a quarter ago, nearly 40% of the pipeline rooms are luxury and full service, which by their nature tend to command a bit more key money investment, but obviously generate meaningfully higher fees.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We'll go next to the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, thanks for taking the question and congratulations, Leeny. I echo everyone's sentiments and thank you for everything you've done. Just on the development side, going back there for a second, I'm curious specifically just around China and what you're seeing there. It feels like so far the development trends have kind of defied the mixed RevPAR outlook or environment. Just curious, kind of what you're seeing the latest there. Yes, we have continued to see fantastic room signings this year in Greater China and again, really appreciate all the team's hard work. We've seen particular strength in the select service brands, which, if you think about it, makes sense given the perspective of hotel owners.

These are, relatively speaking, lower risk, less complex assets, require kind of allow for greater diversification, they are lower cost per key and have solid returns. In that regard, that's where we've seen about 70% of the rooms in the first half of this year have been in select service brands in China. We're very excited about how our select service brands are performing against competitors for these signings and we continue to see solid movement as they go into the pipeline and then start moving through to come through opening the rooms. Growth that we have in Greater China is in the high single digits and I think reflects the success that we're having with all of our brands there.

Speaker 1

To give you a little more quantitative context to Leeny's remarks, you look at the first half of 2025, our room signings are up almost 20% year over year.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We will take our final question from Kevin Kobelman with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks so much. I'll add my congratulations to Leeny. Thank you for your help and for your kindness.

Speaker 0

Thank you.

Speaker 1

I have just a question on leisure transient. Can you touch on how you would characterize current underlying leisure transient trends after you strip out any calendar changes?

Speaker 0

I have to admit this has probably been the surprise outperformer for us. I will point to the luxury and certain parts of the premium segment. For example, resorts have just performed extremely well. I think when you think about wealth and wealth movements in age groups around the world, demographics probably plays a role. The reality is people with these levels of unemployment, you're still seeing people take vacation and they love to travel. This desire for experiences over goods continues and the underlying trends that we see are excellent. As Tony pointed out earlier, the booking window is obviously quite short, so it can't really predict much more than three weeks in advance. So far we continue to see solid leisure trends. I would not call them that they're accelerating. Thank you.

At this point, we have used up our allotted time, but we'd like to thank everyone for their questions. I will now turn it back to Mr. Capuano for closing remarks. Great.

Speaker 1

Thank you all again. I promised I wouldn't make Leeny cry on this call, but there's more of that to come. Thank you all for your kind sentiments. Thank you for your continued interest in Marriott and we look forward to seeing you on the road in the coming weeks and months. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We would like to thank everybody for their participation today. Please feel free to disconnect your line at any time.