Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Marriott raised its full-year 2024 earnings and capital returns guidance, expecting adjusted EBITDA to rise 7% to 9% to roughly $5 billion to $5.1 billion, and capital returns to shareholders between $4.2 billion and $4.4 billion, reflecting strong international performance and continued resilient travel demand.
- Marriott's development pipeline remains robust, with commitments for around 140 StudioRes properties in the U.S. & Canada, active deals for over 100 more, and plans to unveil a new conversion-friendly mid-scale brand, demonstrating significant growth opportunities and strong demand from owners and franchisees.
- Group booking pace for 2025 is up approximately 13%, driven by a 7% increase in definite rooms and a 5% rise in average daily rate, indicating sustained strength in the group segment and positive outlook for future revenues.
- Industry-wide demand has been flat to down over the past year, with Marriott's leisure segment showing flat RevPAR in the U.S. & Canada for the first quarter compared to last year, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending.
- Macroeconomic challenges in China are impacting Marriott's expectations for RevPAR growth in Greater China, leading to a downward revision of RevPAR estimates for the region compared to expectations a quarter ago.
- The upcoming U.S. presidential election may lead to decreased government and business travel, especially in Washington D.C., potentially negatively impacting Marriott's revenues in Q4.
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Guidance and Fee Increase
Q: Is fee guidance increase driven by IMF or non-RevPAR contributions?
A: Approximately 75% of the fee guidance increase is from Incentive Management Fees (IMF), predominantly from international markets. International IMF represented 64% of IMFs in Q1, up from 58% a year ago. The remaining growth comes from non-RevPAR-related fees, such as strong food and beverage sales and expansion in fast-growing Asia Pacific segments. -
China RevPAR and Development
Q: Is the China slowdown continuing, and is it affecting development?
A: There is no impact on the development front in China; in fact, Marriott had a tremendous quarter of signings in Greater China. Overall RevPAR in Greater China grew 6%, with strong performance in Tier 1 cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing. Some softness was observed in new Tier 1 cities in March due to macroeconomic factors. -
U.S. Leisure RevPAR Outlook
Q: What's expected for U.S. leisure RevPAR for the year?
A: Leisure RevPAR growth in the U.S. is expected to be positive but at the lower end, slightly below previous expectations. The group segment is anticipated to be the "home run hitter" for the year, with business transient travel also gaining ground. -
Construction Pipeline and Developer Sentiment
Q: Has there been a change in developer mood affecting U.S. starts?
A: The construction pipeline is strong, with an increase of 9% year-over-year when excluding MGM. Despite constrained lending environments, there's increased confidence, evidenced by U.S. construction starts rising 25% compared to a year ago. Marriott added 31,000 rooms to its pipeline in Q1, showing robust global momentum. -
2025 Group Revenue Pace
Q: How is the 2025 group revenue pace looking?
A: For 2025, group pace is tracking up about 13%, driven by gains in both demand and average daily rate (ADR). Definite rooms are up 7%, and ADR has increased by 5%. -
MGM Licensing Deal Performance
Q: How is the MGM licensing deal performing?
A: Although it's early, the MGM licensing deal is exceeding expectations in terms of booking volumes and Bonvoy loyalty program penetration. Both parties' initial expectations have been surpassed in the early stages. -
RevPAR Index Share Gains
Q: In which brands or regions are you taking the most share?
A: Marriott continues to strengthen its lead in the luxury segment, enjoying substantial RevPAR Index premiums across its portfolio. Regions like Asia Pacific are outperforming, with the company's large footprint in markets such as India, Japan, and South Korea driving strong RevPAR performance. -
Trends in U.S. Demand and Consumer Spending
Q: Should we worry about consumer spending given flat industry demand?
A: Marriott remains confident, reporting U.S. RevPAR up 1.5% in the quarter despite holiday impacts. Leisure travel is flat versus last year but still significantly ahead of 2019 levels. Group demand is strong, with extraordinary volumes, and large corporate business showed the most sequential improvement in the last eight quarters. -
Upcoming Conversion-Friendly Brand
Q: Can you tell us more about the conversion-friendly brand?
A: Marriott plans to launch a new global mid-scale conversion-friendly brand to meet guest demand for value options and provide owners with flexibility. This is timely due to challenges in new construction financing, allowing pivoting between new builds and conversions. -
Loyalty Membership Competition
Q: Is a competitor overtaking you in loyalty members a concern?
A: While having the industry's largest loyalty platform is important, member engagement is more critical than size. Marriott focuses on driving engagement through its credit card portfolio and a wide range of experiences offered to members. -
Owned Asset Sales Outlook
Q: When will owned hotels, especially international, be sold?
A: Asset sales will be considered when timing and pricing are right. For properties like the W Union Square and the Caribbean Latin America portfolio, Marriott is completing renovations and capital programs before sale. Stability in interest rates is expected to help free up the transaction market. -
Non-RevPAR Fees Variance
Q: What's causing the fluctuation in non-RevPAR fees?
A: The variance is due to the lumpy nature of residential branding fees, which can vary significantly quarter to quarter as units are sold. These are one-time fees recognized upon the sale of residential units. Expectations for the full year remain unchanged. -
Election Impact on Travel
Q: Will the upcoming election affect travel demand?
A: Historically, there's a dip in government travel after Labor Day, and both group and business transient travel decrease during election week. Marriott's forecast accounts for typical patterns observed during past presidential elections. -
SMB Trends in Lower-End Segments
Q: Any industry trends in lower-end SMB travel?
A: It's challenging to pinpoint specific industries, but government-related business is a demand source being closely monitored in the lower-end segments.